Bleeding Bills Blue Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Zach will get closer to $5 million than $8 million per year. I think we should look to re-sign Zach and Lorax. We'll find a way to get Zach, Lorax, Brown, Ragland, Hughes and Shaq on the field a good bit. Danny Trevathan got 4 for 24.5 with 12 guaranteed. He was an ILB for the best defense in football and was also known for his coverage ability. That seems like a fair assessment of his value. You basically pick a brown and keep him. You can keep Zach this year and lose Preston next year, or vice versa. Kyle will be 34 next year. If he doesn't make it through this season, then he is definitely gone. Graham will be 32. Letting them go saves $10 million, which would allow the Bills to meet next year's needs for the most part. Finding a replacement for carpenter adds another $2.5 if need be. The D-line depth we have with dareus, douzable, bryant, washington, and worthy makes Kyle leaving fairly likely IMO. Keeping those other guys would be cheaper as they're largely relatively young. Doesnt matter the contract we had the players on for Compensatory Pick. It is NET LOSS next year. So depends on what happens in offseason. The only thing that doesn't count is players that you actually release from under contract. They do look at salary largely with this formula though, so despite brown and alexander being great players, they may not net us more than a 6th or 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted October 21, 2016 Author Share Posted October 21, 2016 I'm keeping Kyle no matter what. His production is still high and I don't think any of us can really know his lockeroom value. I think he's a major part of this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Danny Trevathan got 4 for 24.5 with 12 guaranteed. He was an ILB for the best defense in football and was also known for his coverage ability. That seems like a fair assessment of his value. You basically pick a brown and keep him. You can keep Zach this year and lose Preston next year, or vice versa. Agree with all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 I'm working off of this as a starting point: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2017/ The team has 35 players under contract for a total of ~$140M. Let's assume a cap increase of $10M and a rollover of $5M (it's currently $6.6M, but we'll have to account for in-season signings, so $5M is conservative). This puts the 2017 cap at $170M, so I agree with the $30M in space that the OP suggests. RFA Tenders Mike Gilislee - Original round (assume 8% increase from previous year, so figure $1.8M) Ryan Groy - Original round ($1.8M) Colton Schmidt - Original round ($1.8M) Do not tender Meeks, Ola, or Ikard. That $5.4M knocks the cap space down to $25.4M 2017 Draft Picks 2016 draft picks accounted for a total of $5.541M against the cap--if we bump this by another 8%, we get to almost exactly $6M This knocks the cap space down to $19.4M UFAs to re-sign Zach Brown - use the Trevathan contract and assume 2017 cap hit of $6.35M Leger Douzable - give him a slight bump to $800k Lerentee McCray - give him a slight bump to $800k Corey White - give him a slight bump to $800k Jerome Felton - give him a slight bump to $800k Justin Hunter - give him a $1.5M one-year "prove it" deal The above totals $11.05M, which brings us down to $8.4M in cap space with 51 players under contract. This is the starting point IMO. The above assumes that the following guys are allowed to walk: Gilmore Woods Mills Bryant Manuel Bush Goodwin Duke Williams Brandon Tate Chris Gragg Colt Anderson Robert Blanton Greg Salas LorAx Spikes Humber IK The big decisions come down to the following guys: Tyrod - $15.1M cap hit remains if he's picked up; $13.1M in cap space gained if he's not Kyle Williams - $8.3M cap hit remains if he stays; $6.8M in cap space gained if he's cut Corey Graham - $5.3M cap hit remains if he stays; $3.8M in cap space gained if he's cut Can Structure Browns contract differently to lower than Cap hit in the 3M range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 (edited) Can Structure Browns contract differently to lower than Cap hit in the 3M range. I'm sure they can--I was intentionally being conservative Edited October 21, 2016 by thebandit27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Danny Trevathan got 4 for 24.5 with 12 guaranteed. He was an ILB for the best defense in football and was also known for his coverage ability. That seems like a fair assessment of his value. You basically pick a brown and keep him. You can keep Zach this year and lose Preston next year, or vice versa. The D-line depth we have with dareus, douzable, bryant, washington, and worthy makes Kyle leaving fairly likely IMO. Keeping those other guys would be cheaper as they're largely relatively young. The only thing that doesn't count is players that you actually release from under contract. They do look at salary largely with this formula though, so despite brown and alexander being great players, they may not net us more than a 6th or 7th. They will if you lose them via UFA and they sign bigger deals and you do not offset them with a Gain. ala Searcy I think if you lose Brown to a deal like Trevathan you do not sign a UFA (not a released player) You can get at least a 4th. I'm sure they can--I was intentionally being conservative Tracking I was looking specifically at his second year when tat Cap hit drops to 3.5M if Bills wanted to they could give that roster Bonus the second year and not the first year of a deal and it save flips those two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted October 21, 2016 Author Share Posted October 21, 2016 I'm sure they can--I was intentionally being conservative Best guesses within 1-2 mil is all we can do. Seeing the list of players we need to sign is rough. I'm hoping for some good Whaley management and finding a way to re-sign woods or get a FA WR in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Best guesses within 1-2 mil is all we can do. Seeing the list of players we need to sign is rough. I'm hoping for some good Whaley management and finding a way to re-sign woods or get a FA WR in here. There is alot of money that can be freed up with some restructures, no issue IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 @TheBillsWire Which pending #Bills 2017 free agents should be prioritized by Doug Whaley? http://billswire.usatoday.com/2016/10/21/2017-nfl-free-agents-buffalo-bills/ #GoBills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 In terms of QB, if we make the playoffs then Tyrod stays but EJ a tough one to figure, as think he's a solid backup but if he truly wants to start then he's gone and we have to find a vet to replace him. The UFA isn't pretty for guys I would want starting long term but a serviceable backup to play in a game or two that can let Cardale to further develop might be had but could cost $4m. I think there will be plenty of QBs in the backup market next year....like Hoyer, McCown etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 I'm working off of this as a starting point: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2017/ The team has 35 players under contract for a total of ~$140M. Let's assume a cap increase of $10M and a rollover of $5M (it's currently $6.6M, but we'll have to account for in-season signings, so $5M is conservative). This puts the 2017 cap at $170M, so I agree with the $30M in space that the OP suggests. RFA Tenders Mike Gilislee - Original round (assume 8% increase from previous year, so figure $1.8M) Ryan Groy - Original round ($1.8M) Colton Schmidt - Original round ($1.8M) Do not tender Meeks, Ola, or Ikard. That $5.4M knocks the cap space down to $25.4M 2017 Draft Picks 2016 draft picks accounted for a total of $5.541M against the cap--if we bump this by another 8%, we get to almost exactly $6M This knocks the cap space down to $19.4M UFAs to re-sign Zach Brown - use the Trevathan contract and assume 2017 cap hit of $6.35M Leger Douzable - give him a slight bump to $800k Lerentee McCray - give him a slight bump to $800k Corey White - give him a slight bump to $800k Jerome Felton - give him a slight bump to $800k Justin Hunter - give him a $1.5M one-year "prove it" deal The above totals $11.05M, which brings us down to $8.4M in cap space with 51 players under contract. This is the starting point IMO. The above assumes that the following guys are allowed to walk: Gilmore Woods Mills Bryant Manuel Bush Goodwin Duke Williams Brandon Tate Chris Gragg Colt Anderson Robert Blanton Greg Salas LorAx Spikes Humber IK The big decisions come down to the following guys: Tyrod - $15.1M cap hit remains if he's picked up; $13.1M in cap space gained if he's not Kyle Williams - $8.3M cap hit remains if he stays; $6.8M in cap space gained if he's cut Corey Graham - $5.3M cap hit remains if he stays; $3.8M in cap space gained if he's cut Great job as always Bandit!! One thing to clarify for people is that only the top 51 count against the cap. As an example of they sign the Lorax at a $4M cap hit (as an example) it will drop off someone at the league minimum and be almost $500K savings. If there is $8.4 in cap space in Bandits scenario, this example would leave them at $4.9M in space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 (edited) would you guys feel comfortable with Robey-Coleman in Gilmore's place?No...he is a great slot corner but not a boundary corner. He would get eaten alive by the bigger receivers, we saw that last year some... FYI you can't just plug and play corners...real life isn't Madden. Some players can play boundary, some can play slot. Some are good at both but are very rare. Putting a slot corner at boundary corner is a recipe for disaster. I would be interested in seeing how Seymour does...he is supposed to be very good with good size and speed Edited October 22, 2016 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 I would be fine keeping robey where he is. Making Darby a #1 and drafting a CB to play alongside Darby.They already drafted the guy who's gonna play alongside Darby when Gilmore walks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 I'm keeping Kyle no matter what. His production is still high and I don't think any of us can really know his lockeroom value. I think he's a major part of this team. Im keeping Kyle because I dont trust Marcel at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty McFly Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 I'm honestly comfortable with Darby as our #1, then a combination of White, Robey-Coleman, #1-3 pick on DB in our backfield. I think we would be more than fine That's included in the projection...unfortunately Im not but, I also dont want us to get juiced by Gilmore, he hasnt lived up to expectations so far, I just dont wanna end up like Carolinas defense after Norman left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 I'm working off of this as a starting point: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2017/ The team has 35 players under contract for a total of ~$140M. Let's assume a cap increase of $10M and a rollover of $5M (it's currently $6.6M, but we'll have to account for in-season signings, so $5M is conservative). This puts the 2017 cap at $170M, so I agree with the $30M in space that the OP suggests. RFA Tenders Mike Gilislee - Original round (assume 8% increase from previous year, so figure $1.8M) Ryan Groy - Original round ($1.8M) Colton Schmidt - Original round ($1.8M) Do not tender Meeks, Ola, or Ikard. That $5.4M knocks the cap space down to $25.4M 2017 Draft Picks 2016 draft picks accounted for a total of $5.541M against the cap--if we bump this by another 8%, we get to almost exactly $6M This knocks the cap space down to $19.4M UFAs to re-sign Zach Brown - use the Trevathan contract and assume 2017 cap hit of $6.35M Leger Douzable - give him a slight bump to $800k Lerentee McCray - give him a slight bump to $800k Corey White - give him a slight bump to $800k Jerome Felton - give him a slight bump to $800k Justin Hunter - give him a $1.5M one-year "prove it" deal The above totals $11.05M, which brings us down to $8.4M in cap space with 51 players under contract. This is the starting point IMO. The above assumes that the following guys are allowed to walk: Gilmore Woods Mills Bryant Manuel Bush Goodwin Duke Williams Brandon Tate Chris Gragg Colt Anderson Robert Blanton Greg Salas LorAx Spikes Humber IK The big decisions come down to the following guys: Tyrod - $15.1M cap hit remains if he's picked up; $13.1M in cap space gained if he's not Kyle Williams - $8.3M cap hit remains if he stays; $6.8M in cap space gained if he's cut Corey Graham - $5.3M cap hit remains if he stays; $3.8M in cap space gained if he's cut Great job! Posters like you are the reason I started coming to the board years ago. What I take from that list of ' players allowed to walk' is we have to hope the coaching is the reason their was a lot of production. I mean how Mills has shown improvement from last year to this. Alexander having the production he is. Kromer and the Ryan bros played a big role in those players improving. I suspect Rex might tell Whaley to let Z Brown walk and make a few other cuts to bring back Gilmore. I think Rex believes and focus' on the front 7 scheme wise. Rex wants elite talent corners. With that in writing and looking at it Bandit, what moves would you make to keep Gilmore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Great job! Posters like you are the reason I started coming to the board years ago. What I take from that list of ' players allowed to walk' is we have to hope the coaching is the reason their was a lot of production. I mean how Mills has shown improvement from last year to this. Alexander having the production he is. Kromer and the Ryan bros played a big role in those players improving. I suspect Rex might tell Whaley to let Z Brown walk and make a few other cuts to bring back Gilmore. I think Rex believes and focus' on the front 7 scheme wise. Rex wants elite talent corners. With that in writing and looking at it Bandit, what moves would you make to keep Gilmore? i wonder if gilmore could have any trade value if we tag him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Great job! Posters like you are the reason I started coming to the board years ago. What I take from that list of ' players allowed to walk' is we have to hope the coaching is the reason their was a lot of production. I mean how Mills has shown improvement from last year to this. Alexander having the production he is. Kromer and the Ryan bros played a big role in those players improving. I suspect Rex might tell Whaley to let Z Brown walk and make a few other cuts to bring back Gilmore. I think Rex believes and focus' on the front 7 scheme wise. Rex wants elite talent corners. With that in writing and looking at it Bandit, what moves would you make to keep Gilmore? Thanks for the sentiment. Re Gilmore, it's more a choice between keeping him or bringing in a FA corner or help at S or WR in FA. If they're bent on keeping him, which would make me happy, I think their first move would be to part ways with Graham. I suppose they could also extend Eric Wood or add a year to Kyle's deal to create space as well. In the end, I think there's a better-than-50/50 chance that Kyle isn't here next year...there's only so many dollars to go around, and this team needs to add multiple receivers and safeties, plus a quality backup QB. i wonder if gilmore could have any trade value if we tag him? It's always difficult to trade a franchise tagged player given that a team needs to give up at least a 1st round pick and a boatload of guaranteed money in a new contract, plus the player needs to have signed his franchise tender to even make it possible. If they tag him then I expect they'll be planning to keep him for one more year, otherwise I suspect they'll let him walk and take whatever compensatory pick they're awarded. I did like another poster's idea of trying to sign a cap casualty like Brandon Carr at CB. It doesn't count agains the comp pick formula and would make a solid enough replacement for Gilmore while Seymour develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Thanks for the sentiment. Re Gilmore, it's more a choice between keeping him or bringing in a FA corner or help at S or WR in FA. If they're bent on keeping him, which would make me happy, I think their first move would be to part ways with Graham. I suppose they could also extend Eric Wood or add a year to Kyle's deal to create space as well. In the end, I think there's a better-than-50/50 chance that Kyle isn't here next year...there's only so many dollars to go around, and this team needs to add multiple receivers and safeties, plus a quality backup QB. It's always difficult to trade a franchise tagged player given that a team needs to give up at least a 1st round pick and a boatload of guaranteed money in a new contract, plus the player needs to have signed his franchise tender to even make it possible. If they tag him then I expect they'll be planning to keep him for one more year, otherwise I suspect they'll let him walk and take whatever compensatory pick they're awarded. I did like another poster's idea of trying to sign a cap casualty like Brandon Carr at CB. It doesn't count agains the comp pick formula and would make a solid enough replacement for Gilmore while Seymour develops. I'm actually warming to the idea of letting Gilmore walk. I think that he's good and was imperative in Rex's system last year. As they have calmed the blitzing though and stopped playing "_______ Island" defense the need is a little less for a top 5 paid CB. I suspect that they will be creative with the cap and there is another $2.5M with Carpenter, $1.2M from Patrick Lewis, and $1M from Easley. I believe that someone else will be kicking for the Bills. Those may not seem like big numbers but you can find another $5M of cap space there within the top 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turbo044 Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Zach doesn't go from 1.4m to 7-8m, I don't think. I would think he'd get an incognito type contract, 3 years, 16m. I would be talking to his agent now. Even with Ragland back, pretty sure there would be room for him. Alexander prob signs for $2-3m per. I'd sign both now if I could. I'd let Gilmore go And sign another db at half of what he gets. He lacks the football instincts to be elite And will never get that. Coleman is best at slot and would struggle a bit on the outside. So sign A good db, a better than good wr and draft one of each in rounds 1 and 2 and we'll be good to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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