Are the Bills really in "Win Now" mode?

[machine gun kelly]

Do you think Hughes, Dareus, Glenn, and possibly Gilmore/Taylor all get signed under the ownership of Ralph? If you don't see any tangible difference, it's simply because your eyes are closed.

26 CB- I agree it is such a nice change to see us develop and retain our talent. That is new. If we lock up Gilmore, that will cement for me we are building more through the draft and we can keep our people. People want to be here. I'd rather give a nice second contract to our starting talent, than bring in free agents. I'd much rather bring in role players at a decent price for depth. The Corbin Bryant's of the world who is a solid player, but doesn't break the bank.

 

I also think it's a change taking a wait and see on TT, than giving Fitzy a contract after five games. If TT comes through this year, he makes strides ahead, and we make the playoffs with probably a tougher schedule, I'd love to see us spend for a starting QB, and not worry about that position for several years.

[Talley56]

Every team is in 'win now' mode.

 

Every team is in 'development' mode.

 

Its a stupid term.

I tend to agree with this. I would say probably front office is in development mode all the time and players are in win now mode all the time. I recall the year the Colts "sucked for Luck" they upset a significantly better Texans team late in the season in a win that nearly cost them the #1 pick for Andrew Luck. I don't believe for one second they were thinking of throwing that game to make sure they end up with the 1st pick.

[Ronin]

 

Do you think Hughes, Dareus, Glenn, and possibly Gilmore/Taylor all get signed under the ownership of Ralph? If you don't see any tangible difference, it's simply because your eyes are closed.

 

You missed the point entirely.

26 CB- I agree it is such a nice change to see us develop and retain our talent. That is new. If we lock up Gilmore, that will cement for me we are building more through the draft and we can keep our people. People want to be here. I'd rather give a nice second contract to our starting talent, than bring in free agents. I'd much rather bring in role players at a decent price for depth. The Corbin Bryant's of the world who is a solid player, but doesn't break the bank.

 

I also think it's a change taking a wait and see on TT, than giving Fitzy a contract after five games. If TT comes through this year, he makes strides ahead, and we make the playoffs with probably a tougher schedule, I'd love to see us spend for a starting QB, and not worry about that position for several years.

 

That is a large part of the point that I made earlier.

 

26 misses the fact that the same people that made those decisions are the ones that DRASTICALLY overpaid for Mario which was obvious from the beginning, gave Fitzpatrick that enormous and ridiculous contract, Traded an additional 1st-rounder and 4th for Watkins, who besides not even being able to stay healthy isn't even among the top-2 possibly the top-3 WRs in his own draft class, certainly not nearly enough to warrant that trade, reached for role-player Spiller, reached massively for Manuel, and now this year with Lawson.

 

It's nice to extract only the good, or bad for that matter, and formulate an argument that one wishes to put forth, which is what the majority here do, particularly those that support Whaley, but the reality is that we are one season away from setting an NFL ongoing record for playoff futility and we've heard the same nonsense from the same people, Brandon, Whaley, now Ryan, for years.

 

Try as people might, there really is no defense. The only option for us as fans is whether or not to patronize the team with our money. I see no moral side in that, but consider, if people choose to do so to the extent that the team is profitable, then any incentive to win, now or ever, is entirely removed from the equation. That much is indisputable. Put another way, if the team is just as profitable, or close to it, when it wins as when it loses, then if you're the owner, or the president or GM for that matter, and you want to have a "who cares" attitude, what's to prevent it?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

They were when the team was for sale. Since then it feels like business as usual.

 

The other drive could have been the imminent dismantling of the front 4 due to the cap. But that became irrelevant last season.

Edited May 23, 2016 by over 20 years of fanhood

[26CornerBlitz]

 

You missed the point entirely.

 

That is a large part of the point that I made earlier.

 

26 misses the fact that the same people that made those decisions are the ones that DRASTICALLY overpaid for Mario which was obvious from the beginning, gave Fitzpatrick that enormous and ridiculous contract, Traded an additional 1st-rounder and 4th for Watkins, who besides not even being able to stay healthy isn't even among the top-2 possibly the top-3 WRs in his own draft class, certainly not nearly enough to warrant that trade, reached for role-player Spiller, reached massively for Manuel, and now this year with Lawson.

 

It's nice to extract only the good, or bad for that matter, and formulate an argument that one wishes to put forth, which is what the majority here do, particularly those that support Whaley, but the reality is that we are one season away from setting an NFL ongoing record for playoff futility and we've heard the same nonsense from the same people, Brandon, Whaley, now Ryan, for years.

 

Try as people might, there really is no defense. The only option for us as fans is whether or not to patronize the team with our money. I see no moral side in that, but consider, if people choose to do so to the extent that the team is profitable, then any incentive to win, now or ever, is entirely removed from the equation. That much is indisputable. Put another way, if the team is just as profitable, or close to it, when it wins as when it loses, then if you're the owner, or the president or GM for that matter, and you want to have a "who cares" attitude, what's to prevent it?

 

You fail to see that there has been a transition in the pro and college personnel departments since Buddy Nix was the GM with Whaley, Monos, and Fisher calling the shots. What happened under Buddy with Spiller, Fitz, Mario, EJ, and other player acquisitions is one regime ago from an ownership and football department perspective.

 

I'm not sure why you're still a fan if you have such moral outrage and feel like you're being cheated out of something when every NFL franchise is profitable because of the enormous scale of the revenues that come into league coffers. For all of the complaining you do, you have a choice.

[FireChan]

This thread is embarrassing for many reasons. Its a typical TBD, semantics based, circle jerk with a side of Mongolian cluster f@#$ as the topic has been framed so poorly.

 

The organization is not in win now mode. No matter what a coach or the players may say in an interview, teams with question marks at QB are not in win now mode. If you want to see win now mode, look at Denver since acquiring Manning. They were all over free agency, loading up for a 2 or 3 year run. Talib, Dumervil, Welker, Vernon Davis, Sanders, Ward. Some of those moves were flops, but they went for it with big money short term deals to win while Manning could still play.

 

http://www.milehighreport.com/2014/4/9/5596570/broncos-free-agency-grades-2014

 

Basically sitting out free agency and extending your own drafted and developed talent is not win now. Replacing your free agents with draft picks is not win now. Its a thoughtful and sustainable approach to managing a franchise.

 

Every coach and player will talk about win now since that's their only goal. Theirs is a short term view regardless of circumstance. Win now is reflected in the actions of decision makers. Unless your coach is GM, its really not up to them. Rex, Rob, and a dozen guy named Williams can talk about winning now, or all in, or any other catch phrase but you only need to pay attention to what the front office is doing to answer that question.

The FA feeding frenzy of pre-2015 more than resembles Denver's moves.

[YoloinOhio]

I always thought "win-now" mode was when a team felt like they had a certain window where they felt they could make a SB run based on the team currently constructed. Typically this would include a very good, playoff worthy franchise QB who either had a few years left age-wise or one who was still on his rookie deal so the team is trying to stack high priced talent around him while they still can. So they do everything with that short term goal in mind. Broncos of the last few years come to mind.

 

I don't know when the Bills have had that type of team in recent memory. When I hear people say in recent years that this team is built to "win now" I'm not sure I see it. Maybe it will look that way if Taylor continues to move forward. But I don't see that same "window" of wanting to focus on just the short term, because most of the core players here are young. I think the so -called "window" is created by the fans looking for the drought to end, hence they must "win now."

Edited May 23, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[BillsVet]

Do you think Hughes, Dareus, Glenn, and possibly Gilmore/Taylor all get signed under the ownership of Ralph? If you don't see any tangible difference, it's simply because your eyes are closed.

 

No. Most of them would have been traded just like Peters was for draft picks.

 

That's why Dick Jauron wasn't absolutely horrible because he managed to be mediocre with far less spending. Now, the Bills are mediocre despite being among the league's big spenders.

[Mikie2times]

"Win Now" is almost like Draft a QB and let him develop (the progression fallacy). Look at the list of starting QB's, how many rode the pine for 2-3 years before being anointed a starter and performed top 15 for the team that provided him time to develop? Further, non year one starters showing very little only to all of a sudden "get it". I have never saw any statistical analysis that shows time turns water into wine to the extent most would have you believe. It tends to make the best better, but it's not very common for the average to become top 15 and certainly not for the team that drafted them. It's fools gold that's been sold on this site by posters and media for countless years. Same thing with draft day trade value arguments. "We got our guy in the first", yes, you might have got your guy, but most statistical data indicates the odds of your guy being "the guy" are not much greater than "the guy" being drafted a round later (of course position plays a role).

 

I guess the overriding theme I'm getting at is like "Win Now" people throw around theories and opinions based on preconceived notions that have no basis. No fundamental proof. Just things that one would expect, but often expectations and reality have a lot of distance. Challenging this type of thinking is what led to the revolution in baseball and I expect Cleveland will see similar benefits, so long as they allow the process enough time.

Edited May 23, 2016 by KzooMike

[3rdand12]

They were in "win now" mode last season with all that spending they did. I think that is obvious. The mentality was continue great play on defense while getting the offense to do just enough with some more offensive pieces in place.

 

Rex obviously !@#$ed that up.

 

Now I'm not sure what mode they are in. "Rebuild the defense the Rex Ryan way and hope it pays off" mode??

 

On paper it looks like a 7 win team or so. Will be interesting to see where they go from there if that happens.

I also think last year and all the monied acquisitions could be viewed as Win Now. But they were no sure on the QB, so it was mixed message.

 

But i disagree with the potential in the W/L column this year. Based upon two years into the new program mostly

[Deranged Rhino]

I also think last year and all the monied acquisitions could be viewed as Win Now. But they were no sure on the QB, so it was mixed message.

 

 

I'm not sure if the influx in cash was a "win now" move or simply just a move add talent (and, by extension, put the money into the roster that had been lacking from Ralph's tenure). Like you say, it's hard to say they were in win now mode (which I still think is a stupid mode to be in as a rule) when they were splitting starting QB reps between three guys and implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball.

 

That said, I'm certain they all expected to win more than 8 games and it was a disappointing season in the end.

[3rdand12]

 

I'm not sure if the influx in cash was a "win now" move or simply just a move add talent (and, by extension, put the money into the roster that had been lacking from Ralph's tenure). Like you say, it's hard to say they were in win now mode (which I still think is a stupid mode to be in as a rule) when they were splitting starting QB reps between three guys and implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball.

 

That said, I'm certain they all expected to win more than 8 games and it was a disappointing season in the end.

agree with the win now descriptor. I just mentioned the influx of talent via FA as a cue.

But all those players the paid , are still on the team and second year is as Bill. Keep in mind Bills spent generously on Coaches. I think someone besides us is not very pleased with the ROI ?

: )

[GunnerBill]

They were in "win now" mode last season with all that spending they did. I think that is obvious. The mentality was continue great play on defense while getting the offense to do just enough with some more offensive pieces in place.

 

Rex obviously !@#$ed that up.

 

Now I'm not sure what mode they are in. "Rebuild the defense the Rex Ryan way and hope it pays off" mode??

 

On paper it looks like a 7 win team or so. Will be interesting to see where they go from there if that happens.

 

I see it about the same as this. 2015 was supposed to be "win now". Had the D played anywhere close to what it had the year before it would have been a play-off year.

 

Now to me we are in rebuild mode on the defensive side of the ball. If it all clicks the play-offs are possible.... but it feels to me like a team set up to go just shy of .500. It has been a long time since a Rex Ryan team won 3 in a row.

[BarleyNY]

I always thought "win-now" mode was when a team felt like they had a certain window where they felt they could make a SB run based on the team currently constructed. Typically this would include a very good, playoff worthy franchise QB who either had a few years left age-wise or one who was still on his rookie deal so the team is trying to stack high priced talent around him while they still can. So they do everything with that short term goal in mind. Broncos of the last few years come to mind.

I don't know when the Bills have had that type of team in recent memory. When I hear people say in recent years that this team is built to "win now" I'm not sure I see it. Maybe it will look that way if Taylor continues to move forward. But I don't see that same "window" of wanting to focus on just the short term, because most of the core players here are young. I think the so -called "window" is created by the fans looking for the drought to end, hence they must "win now."

I agree with all of what you said above. Any "win now" pressure at this point is strictly "hot seat" pressure for the Whaley, Rex and other coaches and FO personnel. I don't see their seats as hot at the moment, but they're probably a little warm. As for the team, it isn't changing much in the coming seasons except via draft and small contract FAs. OTC summed it up when discussing Glenn's deal:

 

"This contract moves the Bills into 3rd place in the Commitment Index hierarchy, which means that the team has the third least amount of future salary cap spending capacity. Similarly, the team ranks 5th in 2017 True Cap Space commitments. An extension for Stephon Gilmore or Tyrod Taylor would likely push the Bills to the top position in Commitment Index. None of this means that the Bills will necessarily be in a bad salary cap position over the next few years, but due to the true cap commitments made to the contractual core of Dareus, Glenn, Clay, McCoy, and Hughes, the team will have limited flexibility to add to or change the roster without moving sideways by losing talent currently on the roster."

 

http://overthecap.com/cordy-glenn-contract-analytics/

Edited May 24, 2016 by BarleyNY

[SoFFacet]

I feel like this is said every season by the fans and media about the Bills and other teams, but what does it even mean, and is it true? Does it mean that they are all in for the short term, thinking they are just a piece or two away from the playoffs? Does it mean the GM and HC are fired after the season if they don't make the playoffs and/or have a winning season?

 

I think it's possible they are thinking they are all in for this year with not as much focus on the long term. Specifically because of the playoff drought. But I think it's just as possible they are more focused on long-term building of the team. Whaley just signed an extension, it's only the coach's 2nd year, and their core players at QB, WR, LT, CB, DT, LB and DE are very young. I never bought that they were in "win-now" mode the last few years simply because it wasn't realistic. They didn't have the most important position, QB. I still think it's kind of a minor rebuild with a long term vision (nothing like the Browns are doing, but a smaller scale version of that -- considering the Bills were a better team to start off), beginning last year.

 

Without being a fly on the wall at OBD I'm just guessing, but not sure it's a "playoffs or everyone is gone" atmosphere or culture from what I can tell. It seems like the fans as a whole want it that way, I just don't know if that is indeed the case.

 

Thoughts?

 

"Win now mode" is a garbage media narrative that was thrust upon the Bills after they traded their 2015 1st round pick. Its a gross oversimplification that willfully ignores that over the course of an entire career, player A could perfectly well be contribute more over the long term than players B and C combined.

 

Last season was must win season. This year, not so much. This seems like yr. 1 of a defensive rebuild. Three potential new starters on d(rookies), doesn't sound like win now to me.

 

Fairly well put. Last year they hoped to build on a 9-7 team, and the FAs they brought in helped increase their chances of making the playoffs. Even so, their actions did not have a significant adverse effect on their chances in subsequent seasons, so calling it a "win now" season would still be a stretch. But the fact is that almost all coaching changes, particularly ones that completely change the defensive scheme, require transitional years, and we saw why last year. Now we are in year 2 of a coach's tenure, with several rookies being heavily counted upon on defense, and a "prove it" QB. None of those are traits of an immediate contender, but they still have decent chances of getting the wild card. Some people don't understand that the outcomes of games are just probabilistic results, and all that a GM can do is increase a team's chances.

 

That's an interesting take, but it disagrees with the popular notion that both Whaley & Ryan are gone after the season if they don't make the playoffs. I don't know what to believe on that since nothing has officially/formally been announced as such, and frankly, if Pegula couldn't see the problems coming in as the fan that he said he was, I have zero confidence that he'll see it at all any other time. It's been obviously for 15 years what the core problems are and all he did was dig in on them. I'll predict 5-11 again and that both Whaley & Ryan will both still be here next season.

 

Let's assume that this was not a win-now year then, would that alter the take on the Draft then? Not necessarily by you, generally speaking.

 

That's just a garbage notion that's only ever been "popular" with a certain small, loud internet peanut gallery. There is no evidence to indicate that their seats are even lukewarm.

 

This thread is embarrassing for many reasons. Its a typical TBD, semantics based, circle jerk with a side of Mongolian cluster f@#$ as the topic has been framed so poorly.

 

The organization is not in win now mode. No matter what a coach or the players may say in an interview, teams with question marks at QB are not in win now mode. If you want to see win now mode, look at Denver since acquiring Manning. They were all over free agency, loading up for a 2 or 3 year run. Talib, Dumervil, Welker, Vernon Davis, Sanders, Ward. Some of those moves were flops, but they went for it with big money short term deals to win while Manning could still play.

 

http://www.milehighreport.com/2014/4/9/5596570/broncos-free-agency-grades-2014

 

Basically sitting out free agency and extending your own drafted and developed talent is not win now. Replacing your free agents with draft picks is not win now. Its a thoughtful and sustainable approach to managing a franchise.

 

Every coach and player will talk about win now since that's their only goal. Theirs is a short term view regardless of circumstance. Win now is reflected in the actions of decision makers. Unless your coach is GM, its really not up to them. Rex, Rob, and a dozen guy named Williams can talk about winning now, or all in, or any other catch phrase but you only need to pay attention to what the front office is doing to answer that question.

 

Truth.

Edited May 24, 2016 by SoFFacet

[Ronin]

 

You fail to see that there has been a transition in the pro and college personnel departments since Buddy Nix was the GM with Whaley, Monos, and Fisher calling the shots. What happened under Buddy with Spiller, Fitz, Mario, EJ, and other player acquisitions is one regime ago from an ownership and football department perspective.

 

I'm not sure why you're still a fan if you have such moral outrage and feel like you're being cheated out of something when every NFL franchise is profitable because of the enormous scale of the revenues that come into league coffers. For all of the complaining you do, you have a choice.

 

Look CB, I'm not saying this to flame or antagonize, but you really need to learn how to read.

 

I don't have any moral outrage, what did I say, I said, literally, "I see no moral side," which means that I'm not morally outraged. Ergo, no sense in replying to a false charge. It comes down, again, as I said clearly, to a business decision for both owner and fan. Would I pay to see the Browns if I were a Browns fan? No. I'd watch for free and where I didn't have to drop $400 for my wife and I or a friend to go see the game, eat, park, and have to waste time getting out of the stadium afterwards. Any such choice rests with each person.

 

I also don't need you challenging my fan status. I slept out overnight in the sub-freezing cold in front of Marine-Midland bank back in the day, OUTSIDE, literally, in 20-degrees, just waiting to get 2 or 4 tix, the limit, to playoff games when we were in them in the early '90s. So enough of this nonsense. No marginal fan would do that.

 

Otherwise we disagree, I see practical little difference if any, in the way that the personnel is handled other than to say that Whaley's a whole helluva lot more risk prone with the results of those risks really not panning out in any positive way. (Manuel (BUST), Watkins (massively overrated because he can't stay healthy and isn't even the best in class), now Lawson)

 

As well, and since you've forgotten, that listing from FO, or whereever it was from, that ranked our drafts, Whaley has the worst rankings of anyone during that time stretch. Worse than Levy, Nix, Donahoe, and even when Brandon was doing it.

 

There are facts, your argument is largely opinion based with little to back it up other than implying that you're a real fan as opposed to others who apparently are not.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Look CB, I'm not saying this to flame or antagonize, but you really need to learn how to read.

 

I don't have any moral outrage, what did I say, I said, literally, "I see no moral side," which means that I'm not morally outraged. Ergo, no sense in replying to a false charge. It comes down, again, as I said clearly, to a business decision for both owner and fan. Would I pay to see the Browns if I were a Browns fan? No. I'd watch for free and where I didn't have to drop $400 for my wife and I or a friend to go see the game, eat, park, and have to waste time getting out of the stadium afterwards. Any such choice rests with each person.

 

I also don't need you challenging my fan status. I slept out overnight in the sub-freezing cold in front of Marine-Midland bank back in the day, OUTSIDE, literally, in 20-degrees, just waiting to get 2 or 4 tix, the limit, to playoff games when we were in them in the early '90s. So enough of this nonsense. No marginal fan would do that.

 

Otherwise we disagree, I see practical little difference if any, in the way that the personnel is handled other than to say that Whaley's a whole helluva lot more risk prone with the results of those risks really not panning out in any positive way. (Manuel (BUST), Watkins (massively overrated because he can't stay healthy and isn't even the best in class), now Lawson)

 

As well, and since you've forgotten, that listing from FO, or whereever it was from, that ranked our drafts, Whaley has the worst rankings of anyone during that time stretch. Worse than Levy, Nix, Donahoe, and even when Brandon was doing it.

 

There are facts, your argument is largely opinion based with little to back it up other than implying that you're a real fan as opposed to others who apparently are not.

 

My bad on the misinterpretation. No one challenged your fandom, I simply posted that you have a choice to not follow or patronize the team if you're that upset.

[Ronin]

I always thought "win-now" mode was when a team felt like they had a certain window where they felt they could make a SB run based on the team currently constructed. Typically this would include a very good, playoff worthy franchise QB who either had a few years left age-wise or one who was still on his rookie deal so the team is trying to stack high priced talent around him while they still can. So they do everything with that short term goal in mind. Broncos of the last few years come to mind.

 

I don't know when the Bills have had that type of team in recent memory. When I hear people say in recent years that this team is built to "win now" I'm not sure I see it. Maybe it will look that way if Taylor continues to move forward. But I don't see that same "window" of wanting to focus on just the short term, because most of the core players here are young. I think the so -called "window" is created by the fans looking for the drought to end, hence they must "win now."

 

What people seem to forget is the promises that were made last year, by Ryan, with Whaley fully backing him, Brandon too, even Kelly & Co., about how that (2015) was our year. We've seen the results.

 

Levy came on and stated boldly that the future is now. He promised a winning/playoff season prior to announcing a rebuild after his inaugural season.

 

We've had a revolving door of "win-now" seasons as stated by the team's & organization's leaders, but none have materialized, and in places such as this excuses are made for them when there are no excuses, or when there shouldn't be anyway.

 

We are in precisely that mode now. When the entire team was on red-alert last off/pre-season to the extent when they rally all of the name players from the '90s era heyday teams, then that's hardly not "win-now" and everyone was expecting that and it was promised.

 

Here's the thing, when the team swings-and-misses like that, apart from leaving good people like Kelly & Co. with egg on their face, it suggests something. In this case, what it suggests is that those making the promises really don't know wtf they're doing which is something that many of us have known for a while. The rest only catch on after changes are made and the new boss becomes the rallying point with the old ones (Donahoe, Nix, Jauron, Gailey, etc.) all being treated like dunces with the same people doing the heralding either ignoring or apparently failing to realize that those names replaces the name(s) that they're not supporting at a prior time. That's the emotional element to the game from a fan perspective. There's nothing necessarily wrong with that, again, no moral high or low ground here, but facts are facts, and just as people ignored facts back then and have and do in an ongoing basis until such a time as it becomes emotionally expedient for them not to do so, so too the same is going on amongst the fanbase today and always will.

 

Having said that, the reality is that this crew, particularly Brandon, Whaley, and Ryan, are clueless and have a track record of all but disaster in tow like a train on a royal wedding gown. The only one with some proven success is Ryan, but none of that has been in the last five seasons where his D's have all ranked average or well-below average in scoring, and his only success has essentially been on a team with bookoo talent led by Ray Lewis and Ed Reed anchoring the middle of his Ds.

 

Well this just in, we don't have Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, we have the antithesis. We have a pair of 2-down ILBs in the middle in Ragland and Brown, clones of one another and neither of whom can cover the pass well, and what, we may not even know yet at SS/FS but probably Aaron Williams and Corey Graham, also two players not excelling in coverage, and none of whom even come close to sniffing the jocks of Lewis or Reed in terms of intangibles and leadership. Instead, the center of our D from immediately behind the line to the end zone has pass-coverage as a weakness.

 

Either way, Ryan doesn't have Lewis (13-time Pro Bowler & 7-time All-Pro) and Reed (9-time Pro Bowler & 5-time All-Pro) here, which is one enormous missing ingredient given that both were like on-field coaches and together were arguably the best MLB/FS tandem in the history of the NFL. Among the four players, one being an unproven rookie, there is one Pro-Bowl and 0 All-Pros among them and that PB was 5 seasons ago on a different team entirely.

 

File under it ain't happening.

They were in "win now" mode last season with all that spending they did. I think that is obvious. The mentality was continue great play on defense while getting the offense to do just enough with some more offensive pieces in place.

 

Rex obviously !@#$ed that up.

 

Now I'm not sure what mode they are in. "Rebuild the defense the Rex Ryan way and hope it pays off" mode??

 

On paper it looks like a 7 win team or so. Will be interesting to see where they go from there if that happens.

 

They're in the same mode that the trustees of this team have been in for the better part of 20 years now, I'm not sure that even they know. They pretend that this draft made all the difference, but seriuosly, when was the last time that rookies in a draft propelled a team from .500 to anything relevant without either other influences. It's rhetorical, just sayin', rookies typically don't make that kind of impact, and the one that we were expecting the biggest impact from, much as we expected it from Spiller and Watkins in their rookie seasons, won't even be on the field for a significant part of the early season.

 

And you're right, they obviously were in win-now mode last season, anyone suggesting otherwise is in denial.

I agree with all of what you said above. Any "win now" pressure at this point is strictly "hot seat" pressure for the Whaley, Rex and other coaches and FO personnel. I don't see their seats as hot at the moment, but they're probably a little warm. As for the team, it isn't changing much in the coming seasons except via draft and small contract FAs. OTC summed it up when discussing Glenn's deal:

 

This is Whaley's 4th season as GM. Suppose we finish less than .500 now, why should he be kept on with records of 6-10, 9-7, 8-8, and a losing season (again, assuming that it is), and 23-25 to date otherwise trending downward, which clearly shows regression, not improvement?

 

Again, if he were the GM of the Raiders, Browns, or another team with that record I cannot imagine one single person wishing he'd come here to be our GM much less not making fun of him.

Edited May 24, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[Ronin]

Fairly well put. Last year they hoped to build on a 9-7 team, and the FAs they brought in helped increase their chances of making the playoffs.

 

That's just a garbage notion that's only ever been "popular" with a certain small, loud internet peanut gallery. There is no evidence to indicate that their seats are even lukewarm.

 

They promised playoffs. They dusted off Kelly & Co. from mothballs and paraded everyone around, promised "a bully," absolutely no one involved with the team took an alternate position.

 

If that's not win now I have no idea what is.

 

I agree with you that it's a "garbage notion," although I'd phrase it differently, but nonetheless, it's a pervasive media notion. I've asked numerous people with ties to the org where it came from and the best I can get is that "behind closed doors" etc., Pegula has made it clear to both Whaley & Ryan that it's playoffs "or else."

 

I'm in agreement with you, I don't see the evidence and we know what rumors in Buffalo are worth. I also do not understand, apart from the nonsensical "same time frame" notion, the reasoning behind giving Whaley a 3-year extension that he hasn't earned.

 

Why not put TT on the same time-frame too then for example. Just sayin'.

 

Either way, it is a widespread notion from fans to regional to national media, that they're gone if they don't at least post a winning season. Guess we'll find out, but like you, I see no basis for it.

 

My bad on the misinterpretation. No one challenged your fandom, I simply posted that you have a choice to not follow or patronize the team if you're that upset.

 

Thanks!!

 

Upset? Not sure I'd say "upset," it is what it is. But I guess I don't like to take a turnip and call it a Sirloin steak.

 

I want a winning team as much as everyone, but as I view it, I'm not sure we're going to get one as long as the team gets what it wants, fannies in the seats and frankly, no reason to care. Instead it seems to me that we'll be treated to further ongoing nepotism as we're now seeing with Pegula now chumming up to Brandon on down, etc.

 

If I had to choose words I'd say frustrating, perhaps terminally so realizing that since there are enough fans content to pay top dollar for mediocrity, that those of us that are not are stuck. Hell, I'd even settle for consistent enjoyable football, but we can't even play solid D for two straight seasons for example. IOW, I'll take 6-10 if we're in 14 of those games down to the wire. That means that maybe the next season we'll win 11 of them if things slide our way. But we're not organized/directed (coached) well, so that's unlikely to happen.

 

Either way, the NFL is a business, owning a team is a business decision, if the business model makes almost as much when losing as it does when winning, well, I'm not sure I see much hope for true change when the decisions are clearly being made in the interests of the formerly mentioned nepotism.

 

Again, Whaley seems to have 9 lives in an era where most GMs are lucky to have 2 with most having 1.

Edited May 24, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[Deranged Rhino]

Ok, I guess if the term "win now" mode means in the playoffs, then yes, I certainly think they thought they should be a playoff team in 2015.

 

 

I expected the playoffs at the start of last year, as I'm sure everyone in the Bills' organization did. But then again, I think every team in the NFL operates expecting to win. That's the mindset these people have, pro athletes and front office executives are some of the most competitive people on Earth by their very nature. Competitive people expect to win every time they compete, and some aren't afraid to tell you that.

 

As Bills fans we've seen both types of coaches/personalities from "It's hard to win in the NFL" to "We're going". Both talking points rankle fans in different ways, but personally if I had to choose I'd rather have my team professing "they're going" (even if they don't) than to lower expectations by saying "it's hard to win".

 

In the end, both positions are just empty words. Just like the term "win now". It's meaningless in reality. Every team wants to win. Most every team expects to win. But when the season is over there are 31 losers and only 1 winner.

[Ronin]

 

I expected the playoffs at the start of last year, as I'm sure everyone in the Bills' organization did. But then again, I think every team in the NFL operates expecting to win. That's the mindset these people have, pro athletes and front office executives are some of the most competitive people on Earth by their very nature. Competitive people expect to win every time they compete, and some aren't afraid to tell you that.

 

As Bills fans we've seen both types of coaches/personalities from "It's hard to win in the NFL" to "We're going". Both talking points rankle fans in different ways, but personally if I had to choose I'd rather have my team professing "they're going" (even if they don't) than to lower expectations by saying "it's hard to win".

 

In the end, both positions are just empty words. Just like the term "win now". It's meaningless in reality. Every team wants to win. Most every team expects to win. But when the season is over there are 31 losers and only 1 winner.

 

I don't know about that, were the Bills "losers" in the early '90s? I wouldn't say so. Sure, we should have won one or two of those SBs, particularly the first and last, but still, one was proud to be a Bills fan.

 

I mean should Panthers fans call their team a loser as you just did? I don't think so, their future is bright. SBs are elusive, but playing well and consistently are not, the key being good management/coaching.

 

Also, while every team expects to win, all fans don't, some realize that their team is more rebuilding, or a "year away" kinda thing. Fans of 31 other teams besides say the Browns know that they likely aren't going anywhere this season although I'm sure you can find the counterpart to people here in their forums suggesting that they'll make the playoffs or even win the division for one or more reasons.

 

Team, fans, media (regional), media (national), etc., all have different takes. If the players don't believe that they can make the playoffs then you question their heart, and they should believe that or they're in the wrong professions. But fans don't need to believe anything of the sort, neither does media, of that team or otherwise.

 

There's a big difference between a coach or player saying "if we can simply go .500 this season it'll be a promising season," and a fan or writer saying that. The players' reality is different than ours.

 

It's kind of like if you've ever played in a flag football league with former pro or collegiate players from a decent school, you're just stunned and amazed at the speed of the player etc. You think to yourself man, this guy would be great in the NFL. But if you're objective, you'll know and understand that the entire NFL is filled with such speed and even faster and better in other ways which is why that player has not made it.

 

It's all a matter of perspective. Team personnel, particularly GM and FO, have no choice but to say the most glaringly postiive things even though people know that many of them are ridiculous statements or lies. We've seen some of that with Whaley, Ryan, and our team.

 

For me it would be sufficient to simply know that at least there's a legitimate chance that the Bills could win the division and make a ruckus in the playoffs with perhaps a championship if the cards all fall well. I mean look at the Pats, since 2004 they've almost always been the preseason favorites to win the SB but have won it only once, and with more controversy on top of that. Even when they were 18-0 in '07 and Kraft had begun construction on "Perfection Park."

 

Either way, no objective person looks at our team and truly believes that we're going to the playoffs much less win the division or more. It's far too disarrayed, too poorly coached, wrongly managed, etc. I mean we were the first team to take a hit from our drafting when Lawson got injured by an inert bag.

 

All the things that teams that accomplish those goals do, i.e. draft well, coach well, organize well, we do not do well. Until we do ....

 

As I've said, I haven't read one single article talking about how the entire inside of our D, meaning both ILBs and both of our Ss, are all not prone to good pass defense. That's enormous in today's OTM passing NFL, HUGE. Yet, apparently on one views it as a problem. They all will come later this season. Unfortunately. But the more important thing is why is it that way? Clearly whomever designed the D and oversaw the drafting, AHEM, Whaley & Ryan, either ignored that or simply don't know what they're doing. I'll defer to the latter.

 

Given their track records to date otherwise, and in Ryan's case withouth having both Ray Lewis and Ed Reed on his team, something we'll never even come close to getting a sniff at, particularly with Whaley at the top of this debacle, there's no reason to expect otherwise, is there.

Edited May 24, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[USABuffaloFan]

I don't think you see the money thrown around at middling stars like McCoy and Clay if the Bills didn't think they were a few bounces from making a run.

Started with getting Mario Williams, they were on the away. 9-7 just needing some offense. Whaley lost Marrone with that stupid contract with a opt out. He could have recovered keeping Swartz or promoting him and/o hiring a new offensive HC to compliment. He got the whole thing wrong and continued by paying way to much for the offensive pickups that they had to release Mario (course didn't hurt so much with poor play). Bills have no choices after giving Darius huge contract. They now either win over next 2 years or they will sell everyone off in trades for multiple picks over a 2-3 year period. They will basically follow the model the Sabres used to rebuild. Doubtful the Bills make it to the playoffs, always seem to shoot themselves in the foot, ie.. 1st pick this year has little shot at contributing.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

I don't know about that, were the Bills "losers" in the early '90s? I wouldn't say so. Sure, we should have won one or two of those SBs, particularly the first and last, but still, one was proud to be a Bills fan.

 

I'm speaking from a players'/coaches'/executives' perspective, not as a fan. As a fan you're absolutely correct that it's not an accurate description. But for the guys actually competing in the league it's more of a zero sum game. Titles and championships are legacy markers and what everyone works to achieve, but there can only be one "winning" team each year. That's what makes the sport great.

 

But again, yes, for fans it's not the same equation.

[SoFFacet]

They promised playoffs. They dusted off Kelly & Co. from mothballs and paraded everyone around, promised "a bully," absolutely no one involved with the team took an alternate position.

 

If that's not win now I have no idea what is.

 

None of those things have anything to do with being in "win now mode" or not...

 

This is Whaley's 4th season as GM. Suppose we finish less than .500 now, why should he be kept on with records of 6-10, 9-7, 8-8, and a losing season (again, assuming that it is), and 23-25 to date otherwise trending downward, which clearly shows regression, not improvement?

 

Again, if he were the GM of the Raiders, Browns, or another team with that record I cannot imagine one single person wishing he'd come here to be our GM much less not making fun of him.

 

Context-less, outcome-oriented evaluation is an illogical thought process. For instance, strength of schedule is a factor that varies year to year outside of a team's control, and on that basis alone a team could improve or decline in a vacuum and not wind up with a delta-record that indicates that that is so. Same goes for injury luck and even just bounces within each game. Each game result is a probabilistic outcome and all that a GM can do is improve a team's chances.

 

When you evaluate a GM you need dissociate from the results and look at the decisions. Did they increase the chances of winning? Did they make sense given the information available at the time they were made? Because you don't hire a new GM to make different decisions than his predecessor in the same situations. He's going to face new situations, and all that you will be able to ask of him is to make decisions that increase the team's chances of winning, and make sense given the information available at the time.

[major]

Last year they were in "win now" mode. Not sure what this year is

[Ronin]

 

I'm speaking from a players'/coaches'/executives' perspective, not as a fan. As a fan you're absolutely correct that it's not an accurate description. But for the guys actually competing in the league it's more of a zero sum game. Titles and championships are legacy markers and what everyone works to achieve, but there can only be one "winning" team each year. That's what makes the sport great.

 

But again, yes, for fans it's not the same equation.

 

Well OK, having said that then, one would think that by pure laws of averages that after say 10 seasons then that every team would be .500 or so, right?

 

Since Whaley's been here, the only common denominator during that stretch, we are 39-57, or .406 and trending downward.

 

At some point people need to start saying, OK, we've tried this and that under Whaley and clearly he's underperforming, it's time to move on.

 

None of those things have anything to do with being in "win now mode" or not...

 

 

Context-less, outcome-oriented evaluation is an illogical thought process. For instance, strength of schedule is a factor that varies year to year outside of a team's control, and on that basis alone a team could improve or decline in a vacuum and not wind up with a delta-record that indicates that that is so. Same goes for injury luck and even just bounces within each game. Each game result is a probabilistic outcome and all that a GM can do is improve a team's chances.

 

When you evaluate a GM you need dissociate from the results and look at the decisions. Did they increase the chances of winning? Did they make sense given the information available at the time they were made? Because you don't hire a new GM to make different decisions than his predecessor in the same situations. He's going to face new situations, and all that you will be able to ask of him is to make decisions that increase the team's chances of winning, and make sense given the information available at the time.

 

See the prior post to DR.

 

At best for us, what DR was suggesting, is that in a purely odds-based system, at the end of the day over the longer term, all teams will trend towards .500. I can run an analysis, and have in the past, to show that we're on the losing side of those odds.

 

But clearly it isn't just odds every season. Clearly how well teams are run, coached, managed, etc. factors in heavily, which is only bad news for us and Whaley.

 

As well, the other stuff you mention, you cannot have it both ways. Luck, schedules, injuries, etc., all happen to all teams and that is something that should trend towards a central average for all teams over the long haul, for the most part. But you cannot state that as if we're the only team affected by them. That's an irrational bias.

Last year they were in "win now" mode. Not sure what this year is

 

This year makes the desperation of Whaley and now Ryan make the desperation that reached for Watkins look almost benign.

 

If it's true that these guys get pink slips if the team doesn't post a winning season, then one of the dumbest things that Pegula could have done is what he's doing. Their decison making will impact this team negatively for at least two seasons after that.

 

The odds of a new coach and new GM to a lesser extent, seeing the talent brought on by W/R being anything close to identical to what they'd want are absurdly remote. And in the interests of sanity please, let's hope they would be different.

 

Not to mention that players like Ragland and Brown are hardly prototypical ILBs in the modern era NFL, in fact they're quite the opposite, they're both 2-down LBs that will be required to play 3 downs.

 

I'll suggest now that Watkins is going to limp through this season again and even miss a significant number of games. I expect him to be IR'd at some point given his injury. Either way, if that happens there's going to be so much work to do to bring this team up to competitiveness in the next couple of seasons, so much work. We'll be starting 20 seasons of playoff futility in the eyes.

Edited May 24, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[GunnerBill]

Cool story Ghost. Except the two seasons that have followed offseasons for which he has had control Whaley's record (and I don't buy the GMs should be directly judged by records in the way coaches are) is 17-15 (above .500). The last Bills GM to have a two year stretch above .500 was John Butler.

 

That isn't to say he isn't at risk if the 2016 Bills flame out... he might be... but to criticise him based on the W-L to this point makes little sense. He has made moves that have given this team a better chance to win that for me is inarguable and the record rather indicates that too.

[billsfan_34]

When you havent made the playoffs for 16 years shouldnt it be win now?

[26CornerBlitz]

When you havent made the playoffs for 16 years shouldnt it be win now?

 

It's okay for fans to have this perspective, but no way the football team itself should operate with that mindset.

[billsfan_34]

 

It's okay for fans to have this perspective, but no way the football team itself should operate with that mindset.

Agree to disagree- 7-9 this year and Rex will be sent packing. I think they do have a win now attitude but its not going to happen. Teams will cram the ball down our defenses throat.

[BarleyNY]

 

This is Whaley's 4th season as GM. Suppose we finish less than .500 now, why should he be kept on with records of 6-10, 9-7, 8-8, and a losing season (again, assuming that it is), and 23-25 to date otherwise trending downward, which clearly shows regression, not improvement?

 

Again, if he were the GM of the Raiders, Browns, or another team with that record I cannot imagine one single person wishing he'd come here to be our GM much less not making fun of him.

 

I addressed my thoughts on this in another post, but I'll rehash it here since I cut my response to you short. I'd call their seats warm now, but that could change quickly. Another .500ish season probably gives both Whaley and Rex another year, but with very hot seats. A very bad season and we probably would see them get the boot. Texture is important. Are they competitive throughout the season? Does Rex still have support of his players? At some point things like injuries, lack of talent at important positions, etc. aren't excuses, they're self-created problems. However it works out, I'd expect Whaley and Rex to stay or go together.

 

I think I was wrong about Rex. I really thought he was a good hire, but he really disappointed me with the way he handled the defense last season. He's going to have to fix what ails that defense to change my mind this season. Whaley is more interesting to me. He's done well with some things (Darby!), but is raw (see recent comments made to media as an example) and has made a fair number of moves that I really didn't like. Since Rex got here it sure seems like Whaley is shopping for the groceries that Rex is telling him to buy, but I don't think that saves him if the housecleaning happens. Pegula didn't hire him and there's a reason his extension goes through the same season as Rex's contract. Whaley might just need a bit more seasoning under a quality GM and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a very good one down the road.

[Beef Jerky]

Agree to disagree- 7-9 this year and Rex will be sent packing. I think they do have a win now attitude but its not going to happen. Teams will cram the ball down our defenses throat.

Yea send Rex Packing so we can be Cleveland 2.0

[26CornerBlitz]

Agree to disagree- 7-9 this year and Rex will be sent packing. I think they do have a win now attitude but its not going to happen. Teams will cram the ball down our defenses throat.

 

Not going to argue about conjecture. We'll see what happens.

[Ronin]

Cool story Ghost. Except the two seasons that have followed offseasons for which he has had control Whaley's record (and I don't buy the GMs should be directly judged by records in the way coaches are) is 17-15 (above .500). The last Bills GM to have a two year stretch above .500 was John Butler.

 

That isn't to say he isn't at risk if the 2016 Bills flame out... he might be... but to criticise him based on the W-L to this point makes little sense. He has made moves that have given this team a better chance to win that for me is inarguable and the record rather indicates that too.

 

He's been at least Asst. GM/Director of Personnel since 2010.

 

I realize that most people dismiss that, but it does have relevance despite wilful dismissal of that fact.

When you havent made the playoffs for 16 years shouldnt it be win now?

 

There isn't a GM or coach that we've had that hasn't promised playoffs during that time, including Whaley & Ryan. Hell, last year you would have thought that Ryan was running for POTUS given what he promised. Of course none of it materialized.

[BarleyNY]

Yea send Rex Packing so we can be Cleveland 2.0

It is usually better to move on quickly from a mistake than let it linger. If Pegula does not think that Rex and Whaley can be successful, then why not move quickly? Just make a good choice so you don't wind up flipping coaches and GMs every season.

 

And on a more depressing note, I see the fans on this board rip the Browns a lot as a horrific organization (and maybe I'm a bit sensitive to that since I'm from Cleveland). That's fair though because they have been so very bad for such a very long time. But the Bills are pretty close. Over the last 15 years the Bills have exactly 15 more wins than the Browns. That's an average of being exactly one win better per season than the team everyone uses as the reference point for being the biggest long term train wreck in the NFL.

[Ronin]

I addressed my thoughts on this in another post, but I'll rehash it here since I cut my response to you short. I'd call their seats warm now, but that could change quickly. Another .500ish season probably gives both Whaley and Rex another year, but with very hot seats. A very bad season and we probably would see them get the boot. Texture is important. Are they competitive throughout the season? Does Rex still have support of his players? At some point things like injuries, lack of talent at important positions, etc. aren't excuses, they're self-created problems. However it works out, I'd expect Whaley and Rex to stay or go together.

 

I think I was wrong about Rex. I really thought he was a good hire, but he really disappointed me with the way he handled the defense last season. He's going to have to fix what ails that defense to change my mind this season. Whaley is more interesting to me. He's done well with some things (Darby!), but is raw (see recent comments made to media as an example) and has made a fair number of moves that I really didn't like. Since Rex got here it sure seems like Whaley is shopping for the groceries that Rex is telling him to buy, but I don't think that saves him if the housecleaning happens. Pegula didn't hire him and there's a reason his extension goes through the same season as Rex's contract. Whaley might just need a bit more seasoning under a quality GM and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a very good one down the road.

 

I agree with you for the most part, but my point on W/R going after the season is simply that nothing official has been stated but that it's the prevalent viewpoint that if we don't make the playoffs they're both gone. All I'm saying is that I don't see anything concrete to that effect. In fact, I see to the contrary with Pegs giving Whaley that 3-year extension, IMO unearned.

 

As to Whaley, here's the thing, people credit him for no-brainer picks and trades. Hughes for Sheppard was a nothing-for-nothing trade at the time, neither team knew what they were getting, we essentially lucked out. Darby, the best cover-corner in that draft, with our need for cover corners, was also a no-brainer in the 2nd.

 

What's more important is how he's done in his six seasons with the team on our 1st rounders, and OK, we'll dismiss his first three years as Asst. GM/Dir. of Personnel, but in the last three years for three 1st-rounders (and a 4th), he's gotten Manuel and Watkins. That's hardly good. It's also terrible value and Watkins is one more injury away from being all but a bust.

 

If we don't go at least .500 again, then Pegula's going to start losing fans again and we'll slip into the same mode that we were in during Wilson's reign of ignorance, nepotism, and incompetence.

Yea send Rex Packing so we can be Cleveland 2.0

 

Maybe we shouldn't have hired Ryan so that we wouldn't be Cleveland 2.0.

 

Keep in mind that our playoff drought is now longer than any that Cleveland's ever had, and ours is presently ongoing to date in the modern era with no end in sight.

It is usually better to move on quickly from a mistake than let it linger. If Pegula does not think that Rex and Whaley can be successful, then why not move quickly? Just make a good choice so you don't wind up flipping coaches and GMs every season.

 

And on a more depressing note, I see the fans on this board rip the Browns a lot as a horrific organization (and maybe I'm a bit sensitive to that since I'm from Cleveland). That's fair though because they have been so very bad for such a very long time. But the Bills are pretty close. Over the last 15 years the Bills have exactly 15 more wins than the Browns. That's an average of being exactly one win better per season than the team everyone uses as the reference point for being the biggest long term train wreck in the NFL.

 

And a longer playoff futility. Agreed. If we weren't Bills fans the same people defending this team would be making a mockery of it.

 

Like most, I too drank the koolaid last year. I bought into the notion that Ryan was hamstrung by Idzhik etc. Jets fans calmly said wait and see. Well, turns out they were right. Ryan's part of their past problem, not part of our solution.

 

I mean they had a rookie head coach come in and damn near put the team in the playoffs and had them playing much better than Ryan ever did, on D particularly where essentially the same D improved from 24th to 9th in scoring, clearly partly due to the addition-by-subtraction of Ryan.

 

Meanwhile, consider things such as the following which I haven't heard one person mention, media or fan. Ryan claims, on record, that last season he tried to implement a hybrid defensive system between his and Schwartz's and that this year it's going to be all his.

 

Well, OK, but Schwartz didn't have DEs and DTs dropping into coverage, so apparently that was part of Ryan's hybrid half, ... it must be since it wasn't part of Schwartz's.

 

So, either we can expect more of the same, and perhaps devious move to say rush Darby UTM from the NT position too and more fun even, or Ryan's lying, or he simply doesn't know what he's doing and talking about. Those are the only choices. I'm not thrilled with any of the three prospects, the first and third for obvious reasons, the middle one because I don't care to be lied to as we have now since Polian's departure.

Edited May 25, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[GunnerBill]

 

He's been at least Asst. GM/Director of Personnel since 2010.

 

I realize that most people dismiss that, but it does have relevance despite wilful dismissal of that fact.

 

And was not calling the shots and did not have his own people. He has restructured the personnel section since his arrival, with the appointment of Monos, Fisher and the promotion of Hanrahan.

 

If we are going to judge him as a GM, let's judge him as the GM. I have been internally promoted at work and certainly would not want to be held responsible for every decision my old boss made because while I had a solid working relationship with him I didn't agree with every decision he made.

[thebandit27]

 

And was not calling the shots and did not have his own people. He has restructured the personnel section since his arrival, with the appointment of Monos, Fisher and the promotion of Hanrahan.

 

If we are going to judge him as a GM, let's judge him as the GM. I have been internally promoted at work and certainly would not want to be held responsible for every decision my old boss made because while I had a solid working relationship with him I didn't agree with every decision he made.

 

Exactly.

 

It's akin to judging Greg Roman based on Jim Harbaugh's record as a HC.

[BillsVet]

It's okay for fans to have this perspective, but no way the football team itself should operate with that mindset.

 

Tell that to ownership who are trying to market a brand which depends on the on-field product actually being a winner.

 

And tell that to career-minded individuals at OBD who know that in the NFL if you're not trying to win now you're getting closer to being fired.

[billsfan_34]

Yea send Rex Packing so we can be Cleveland 2.0

We already are and hes an awful HC not sure what you watched last year