The Glass Half Empty Report

[PlayoffsPlease]

After 16 years of failure, I am a permanent pessimist regarding the Bills. Only winning a playoff game will change my overall outlook. There are some positives with the Bills (Is there any NFL team without any positives). But over all the 8-8 finish to the season is evidence of a glass half full, more than a glass half full. Here are some of the things (generally facts, maybe an opinion here or there that drives my pessimism for 2016:

 

1) A 1-5 record in 2015 against playoff teams. This a pretty damning statistic. The one playoff win was against the Texans, who only made the playoffs because some team in their division had too.

 

2) 4 of the 7 wins against non-playoff teams came against teams featuring first year head coaches. (Jets, Dolphins)

 

3) Of the three remaining wins 1 came against the worst team in the league the Titans. 1 Came against the fourth worst team, the Cowboys. The other win came against the 8-8 Colts. When you review points 1,2, and 3 together its pretty clear we have no evidence that we can beat top teams.

 

4) Next years schedule is harder. I know things change. But its pretty certain the 2016 Cardinals and Seahawks will be better than the 2015 Eagles and Giants.

 

5) The teams unquestionable best player in 2014, Mario Williams probably won't be with the team in 2016. A huge part of the optimism heading into 2015 was fan belief that the Bills had a historically great front four.

 

6)Kyle Williams best days are behind him. Everyone not named Tom Brady in the NFL declines due too age.

 

7) Jerry Hughes is a bonehead. His penalties offset his talent to such a point his net production is not much above average for his position.

 

8) Marcell Dareus doesn't fit the scheme. The Bills highest paid player is being asked to do a job that could be adequately filled by someone making 1/3 as much money.

 

9) A huge part of the optimism heading into 2015 was fan belief that the Bills had a historically great front four. That is over.

 

10) Linebackers are awful

 

11) Aaron Williams returning to form is questionable.

 

12) All in all, the defense will be less talented in 2016 then it was in 2014

 

13) QB. The theory before 2015 was that the QB only needed to be "good enough". Taylor certainly was "good enough". Turns out that "good enough" was the wrong standard for a team with as many deficiencies as the Bills have. With a 1-5 record against playoff teams, its pretty clear that Taylor was not good enough to lead the team to victories against top teams. He may get there. But he is not there. Guys like Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Joe Flacco and Drew Brees and Andrew Luck missed the playoffs this year. The were not good enough to overcome weak teams. Its unlikely Taylore will be next year.

 

14) Lots of mileage on McCoy. He played great when he played this year. But his best days are behind him. At best he will perform at 2015 levels. More likely he declines. Karlos Williams is a concussion away from not playing for much of the 2016 season. Its a sketchy platform to build a team around for 2016.

 

15) TE. Clay is fine. Probably the most overpaid player in 2015 in the NFL based on production. His salary will contribute towards holes elsewhere on the team

 

16) WR. We have one good WR. And Robert Woods who is decent. Its not enough.

 

17) Oline - It was OK in in 2015. Might lost Glenn, might not. They will be about the same in 2016.

 

18) Special teams - at least we punted well. Enough said.

 

19) Coaching - sucked this year (yes I know football outsiders said the Roman was the bestest)

 

20) Every team already better than us will add players through the draft and free agency. The Bills with the 18th pick overall and needing to use much of the cap to keep this group together are not positioned to improve talent more than the competition.

 

All in all, the Bills are stuck in "average" purgatory. Good enough to beat bad teams, not good enough to beat good teams. Look for 8-8 again in 2016

 

 

 

 

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

This looks like the glass is entirely empty.

 

 

 

"Good morning, Pooh Bear," said Eeyore gloomily. "If it is a good morning," he said. "Which I doubt," said he.

 

"Why, what's the matter?"

 

"Nothing, Pooh Bear, nothing. We can't all, and some of us don't. That's all there is to it."

Edited January 5, 2016 by JR in Pittsburgh

[Deranged Rhino]

Seriously, you gotta make this your avatar:

 

[Wayne Cubed]

I love item 20...

 

"Every team that's better than the Bills..."

 

So, you mean the ones picking after the Bills in the draft? Ah yes, they will obviously be in a better position than the Bills to improve their talent.

[chris heff]

That's a whole lot of conjecture with a smattering of facts. By the way Joe Philbin was the Dolphins coach in week three. The reason the Jets are not a playoff team is the Bills. All of the starting QBs you named that weren't good enough were also not in their first year as a starter.

[GunnerBill]

Okay as someone who this year in uncharacteristically pessimistic about next year here is my take on the OP:

 

1,2 & 3 - I agree. That doesn't mean that can't be rectified in year two but at the end 2015 we did beat a very good Green Bay team, the Pats (I know they rested starters 2nd half) and played the Broncos very close. We were at the very least very competitive against the best in the NFL.

 

4 - I agree

 

5 - Agreed. Mario takes some of the blame here but what I don't want to see now is a re-writing of his history with the team where "we won't miss him cos he was never that great." 2012-14 his first 3 years on the Bills only JJ Watt and Justin Houston lead him in sacks over that period. He is an elite defensive end who we misused, who checked out, and who we now lose.

 

6 - Half agree that Kyle is past his peak but I think Kyle will still be here next year and will still have an effective season.

 

7 - Don't agree at all. Quickly becoming one of our most important players. He was the only guy in this scheme to get regular pressure.

 

8 - Half agree.... I don't think Marcel doesn't fit the scheme and I still think he had a good year... but you are only using half of what Marcel can be. He is a disruptive force... let him disrupt don't make him an anchor.

 

9 - Agreed

 

10 - Don't agree. I posted earlier I see a future for Manny inside and Preston Brown is a good football player who had real problems in the scheme learning completely new concepts. He is the one guy on defense I think there is reasonable grounds to expect would take a big jump in year 2 if all else remained equal.

 

11 - Sadly I agree.... it is 50/50 for me and without him S is a hole.

 

12 - Less talented I don't know... less effective? No question.

 

13 - Disagree. Tyrod is a keeper. There are reasonable grounds for confidence that he takes a step in year 2.

 

14 - Disagree. Shady is an elite player in this league. Gotta keep him healthy for sure, but when he is on the field he is a difference maker.

 

15 - He is overpaid I agree.... but schematically he is the perfect fit for Roman. If we were to lose Roman (this year or next) you are left with a TE who in any other system is then way overpaid.

 

16 - Agree. I actually think Hogan is decent as well (TBD whipping boy) but he is a FA and I doubt he stays and in any event Woods and Hogan are number 3 complimentary guys neither has proven themselves a solid #2.

 

17 - Disagree. I think they will keep Glenn and Cog and if they do I am positive about the line getting better again in 2016. Miller is a terrific young run blocker, needs to work on pass protection but there is a lot to like. RT remains a question mark and could be upgraded.

 

18 - Agree. Fire Crossman.

 

19 - Half agree. Defensive coaching sucked. Offensive coaching was above average. I hate the silly trick plays but apart from that Roman did a pretty good job.

 

20 - Disagree. Simply conjecture - nobody can possibly know.

[MarkyMannn]

After 16 years of failure, I am a permanent pessimist regarding the Bills.

I like being negative as much as the next guy but you take it to a whole new level. Gotta respect that LOL

[PlayoffsPlease]

Okay as someone who this year in uncharacteristically pessimistic about next year here is my take on the OP:

 

1,2 & 3 - I agree. That doesn't mean that can't be rectified in year two but at the end 2015 we did beat a very good Green Bay team, the Pats (I know they rested starters 2nd half) and played the Broncos very close. We were at the very least very competitive against the best in the NFL.

 

4 - I agree

 

5 - Agreed. Mario takes some of the blame here but what I don't want to see now is a re-writing of his history with the team where "we won't miss him cos he was never that great." 2012-14 his first 3 years on the Bills only JJ Watt and Justin Houston lead him in sacks over that period. He is an elite defensive end who we misused, who checked out, and who we now lose.

 

6 - Half agree that Kyle is past his peak but I think Kyle will still be here next year and will still have an effective season.

 

7 - Don't agree at all. Quickly becoming one of our most important players. He was the only guy in this scheme to get regular pressure.

 

8 - Half agree.... I don't think Marcel doesn't fit the scheme and I still think he had a good year... but you are only using half of what Marcel can be. He is a disruptive force... let him disrupt don't make him an anchor.

 

9 - Agreed

 

10 - Don't agree. I posted earlier I see a future for Manny inside and Preston Brown is a good football player who had real problems in the scheme learning completely new concepts. He is the one guy on defense I think there is reasonable grounds to expect would take a big jump in year 2 if all else remained equal.

 

11 - Sadly I agree.... it is 50/50 for me and without him S is a hole.

 

12 - Less talented I don't know... less effective? No question.

 

13 - Disagree. Tyrod is a keeper. There are reasonable grounds for confidence that he takes a step in year 2.

 

14 - Disagree. Shady is an elite player in this league. Gotta keep him healthy for sure, but when he is on the field he is a difference maker.

 

15 - He is overpaid I agree.... but schematically he is the perfect fit for Roman. If we were to lose Roman (this year or next) you are left with a TE who in any other system is then way overpaid.

 

16 - Agree. I actually think Hogan is decent as well (TBD whipping boy) but he is a FA and I doubt he stays and in any event Woods and Hogan are number 3 complimentary guys neither has proven themselves a solid #2.

 

17 - Disagree. I think they will keep Glenn and Cog and if they do I am positive about the line getting better again in 2016. Miller is a terrific young run blocker, needs to work on pass protection but there is a lot to like. RT remains a question mark and could be upgraded.

 

18 - Agree. Fire Crossman.

 

19 - Half agree. Defensive coaching sucked. Offensive coaching was above average. I hate the silly trick plays but apart from that Roman did a pretty good job.

 

20 - Disagree. Simply conjecture - nobody can possibly know.

How is 20 conjecture. 100% of teams will add players in the off season. And the Bills have no particular advantages. We don't have more cap space than others, and we are picking in the middle of the pack. The last time two times we had elite pick in the draft we got elite players, Watkins and Dareus. We might draft 7 pro bowlers and everyone else might draft 7 busts. That would be conjecture. But too say we have no meaningful advantage going into the off season really isn't conjecture.

 

I find it inconsistent to agree that the Bills have no demonstrated ability to beat top teams, but to be confident Taylor is the type of QB that will allow the Bills to beat top teams. I don't Taylor is bad. I think he is fun to watch play. But guys like Andy Dalton get criticized for only helping their teams get to the playoffs every year. And then disappearing. To me, Taylor disappeared at crucial times in the regular season, which is a large part of the reason we didn't beat any good teams. He is eligible to improve certainly. Just not enough to make the Bills a championship contender. I don't think Matt Ryan or Matt Stafford would make this team a championship contender in its current state either. Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers would. Cam Newton or Russell Wilson or Big Ben might. Its tough to win a championship.

[John from Riverside]

At least you own being the stick in the mud

[Tenhigh]

At least you own being the stick in the mud

He is the stickiest in the muddiest. Too many Sully articles for that young man.

Edited January 5, 2016 by Tenhigh

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

He is the stickiest in the muddiest. Too many Sully articles for that young man.

 

I almost feel like we need an intervention here.

[Manther]

Seriously, most of the original points are tough to argue. I want to Billieve, but, hate Rex and have no faith in him especially on Sundays against a good team or coach.

[finn]

At least you own being the stick in the mud

Typical response to anyone down on (i.e., realistic about) the Bills: attack the poster. Imagine how this board would have responded to an (accurate) forecast in August that the team would take a big step backwards under the Clown. Yet when the optimists predict glory, this board cheers them. Happens all year every year.

[racecitybills]

Is this Jerry Sullivan's secret TBD poster name?

 

Wow- what a killjoy-

[Dorkington]

So we lose talent, and the schedule gets harder, and you still predict 8-8? You sound like an optimist! Congrats buddy!

Edited January 5, 2016 by Dorkington

[Deranged Rhino]

So we lose talent, and the schedule gets harder, and you still predict 8-8? You sound like an optimist! Congrats buddy!

 

That's putting the cart way ahead of the horse but carry on.

[GunnerBill]

How is 20 conjecture. 100% of teams will add players in the off season. And the Bills have no particular advantages. We don't have more cap space than others, and we are picking in the middle of the pack. The last time two times we had elite pick in the draft we got elite players, Watkins and Dareus. We might draft 7 pro bowlers and everyone else might draft 7 busts. That would be conjecture. But too say we have no meaningful advantage going into the off season really isn't conjecture.

 

I find it inconsistent to agree that the Bills have no demonstrated ability to beat top teams, but to be confident Taylor is the type of QB that will allow the Bills to beat top teams. I don't Taylor is bad. I think he is fun to watch play. But guys like Andy Dalton get criticized for only helping their teams get to the playoffs every year. And then disappearing. To me, Taylor disappeared at crucial times in the regular season, which is a large part of the reason we didn't beat any good teams. He is eligible to improve certainly. Just not enough to make the Bills a championship contender. I don't think Matt Ryan or Matt Stafford would make this team a championship contender in its current state either. Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers would. Cam Newton or Russell Wilson or Big Ben might. Its tough to win a championship.

 

Okay on the point 20 - I just say this everyone would have looked at the draft last offseason and said "the Bills are at a disadvantage" their top 4 picks were a 2nd, a 3rd and two 5ths. However, look around the NFL and compare Darby, Miller and Williams production to the top 3 picks from every other team.... the Bills ended up well up there in what they got from their first 3 picks. It is simply too uncertain to say one way or the other what is going to happen. Any speculation on who will get better and who will get worse based on FA and especially the draft is conjecture at this point. Is there a chance other teams get better and the Bills get worse? Sure. The opposite is also true.

 

On Tyrod it is just too early after 14 starts for me to start saying what he will end up. Do I think it is likely Tyrod wins us a Superbowl next year? No, frankly I think that is extremely unlikely. But we will have a better understanding by the end of 2016 as to whether he might ever be a QB capable of doing that. I'm not willing, as you seem to be, to put a ceiling on his possible development after 14 starts. Am I sold he is the franchise QB of the future? No. Do I think there is a chance he might be? Yes I do.

Edited January 5, 2016 by GunnerBill

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

sadly, it is hard to disagree with most of this, I see another 8-8 season, but the glass half full means that Rex's swan song.

[MarkAF43]

I'm just curious, for everyone who makes it clear they stand Rex, what will your stances be when/if he takes the Bills to the playoffs? How many of you will own up to it that maybe you were wrong about him, how many will claim we did it in spite of Rex, etc.

[PlayoffsPlease]

I'm just curious, for everyone who makes it clear they stand Rex, what will your stances be when/if he takes the Bills to the playoffs? How many of you will own up to it that maybe you were wrong about him, how many will claim we did it in spite of Rex, etc.

I can only speak for myself. If Rex takes the Bills to the playoffs and they actually win a playoff game next year, then I will admit he exceeded expectations. If he takes 4 or 5 years to make the playoffs, I will say its likely a fluke. Rex isn't the worst coach in the NFL. He has now missed the playoffs as a HC five years in a row, so I think its fair to say he isn't among the elite NFL coaches either.