The Gross Misuse of Sammy Watkins--by the numbers

[thebandit27]

I know there hasn’t been a ton of deep-dive-type analysis on Sammy Watkins’ rookie season, but I think the general consensus among Bills’ fans is that he was misused in the Marrone/Hackett offense. This post is intended to provide data to spark discussion on the topic.

 

Personally, I believe that Sammy was grossly misused on the field, and not given enough opportunities to make big plays. There were two components to this: he wasn’t targeted often enough on the downfield routes he ran, and he wasn’t given enough opportunity to run a wide range of routes that will keep defenses honest.

 

While I’m not a huge fan of PFF, one thing they do very well is track numbers. I’m going to point to three of their breakdowns for this analysis:

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/06/09/route-breakdown-slants/

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/06/20/route-breakdown-go-routes/

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/06/19/route-breakdown-post-routes/

 

According to the numbers (which I back-calculated based on the data in the slants piece above), Sammy ran a total of 676 pass routes in 2014 (derived from the data point stating that he ran 73 slants, which comprised ~10.8% of his routes).

 

Just to show the relative lack of creativity of the offense, understand that the modern NFL route tree has 11 basic pass routes (0-9 and the X, as referenced in each of the pieces above). In Sammy’s case, he ran:

 

193 “Go” (9) routes

73 “Slant” (2) routes (the table says 70, but the bullet point states 73, and the math works out with 73)

 

That’s 266 out of a total 676 pass routes, or nearly 40% of his pass-play snaps, spent on two pass routes.

 

What makes this an obscene misuse of his abilities isn’t the relative predictability of the offense (at least not on its face), but rather the inconceivable lack of targets on those routes.

 

On 193 Go routes, Sammy was targeted less than 35 times (the article doesn’t state the exact number). For perspective’s sake, OBJ was targeted 35 times and didn’t crack the top 10 in number of Go routes run.

 

On 73 slant routes, Sammy was targeted less than 20 times (again, no exact numbers provided). That’s really difficult to stomach considering that Kelvin Benjamin got 23 targets on 65 slant routes, yet Watkins managed to out-produce Benjamin’s yardage output on the pattern despite being targeted less.

 

Putting those two together, we discover that on nearly 40% of his pass routes run, he was targeted no more than 20% of the time.

 

Making matters worse, the team simply failed to call enough plays on which Sammy excelled. He ran 38 post routes in 2014, and was targeted less than 16 times. He caught only 5 passes on these routes, but gained a whopping 194 yards on those receptions. It makes zero sense, given this level of productivity, that post routes would comprise only 5.6% of his pass routes for the season.

 

Based on the above, I’m hopeful that Greg Roman will make an effort to not only put Watkins in a position where he can run a greater variety of routes that maximize his range of talents, but also make it a point of emphasis for the QBs to simply give him more chances to make plays on the deep routes that he runs.

 

Feel free to jump in, opine, pick apart, whatever. It’s the offseason…

[YoloinOhio]

#analytics #douggernaut offense

Edited June 29, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[Jauronimo]

Nice breakdown. Helpful to have a few stats and figures to add context to the general sentiment that Marrackett had no idea how to use Watkins.

[B-Man]

For the older fans...................

 

reminds me of John Rauch's brilliant plan of using O.J. Simpson as a "decoy"

 

 

.

[Nanker]

and punt returner.

[jr1]

His stats were impressive for playing with remedial QBs and having bad ribs

[hondo in seattle]

I know there hasn’t been a ton of deep-dive-type analysis on Sammy Watkins’ rookie season, but I think the general consensus among Bills’ fans is that he was misused in the Marrone/Hackett offense. This post is intended to provide data to spark discussion on the topic.

 

Personally, I believe that Sammy was grossly misused on the field, and not given enough opportunities to make big plays. There were two components to this: he wasn’t targeted often enough on the downfield routes he ran, and he wasn’t given enough opportunity to run a wide range of routes that will keep defenses honest.

 

While I’m not a huge fan of PFF, one thing they do very well is track numbers. I’m going to point to three of their breakdowns for this analysis:

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/06/09/route-breakdown-slants/

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/06/20/route-breakdown-go-routes/

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/06/19/route-breakdown-post-routes/

 

According to the numbers (which I back-calculated based on the data in the slants piece above), Sammy ran a total of 676 pass routes in 2014 (derived from the data point stating that he ran 73 slants, which comprised ~10.8% of his routes).

 

Just to show the relative lack of creativity of the offense, understand that the modern NFL route tree has 11 basic pass routes (0-9 and the X, as referenced in each of the pieces above). In Sammy’s case, he ran:

 

193 “Go” (9) routes

73 “Slant” (2) routes (the table says 70, but the bullet point states 73, and the math works out with 73)

 

That’s 266 out of a total 676 pass routes, or nearly 40% of his pass-play snaps, spent on two pass routes.

 

What makes this an obscene misuse of his abilities isn’t the relative predictability of the offense (at least not on its face), but rather the inconceivable lack of targets on those routes.

 

On 193 Go routes, Sammy was targeted less than 35 times (the article doesn’t state the exact number). For perspective’s sake, OBJ was targeted 35 times and didn’t crack the top 10 in number of Go routes run.

 

On 73 slant routes, Sammy was targeted less than 20 times (again, no exact numbers provided). That’s really difficult to stomach considering that Kelvin Benjamin got 23 targets on 65 slant routes, yet Watkins managed to out-produce Benjamin’s yardage output on the pattern despite being targeted less.

 

Putting those two together, we discover that on nearly 40% of his pass routes run, he was targeted no more than 20% of the time.

 

Making matters worse, the team simply failed to call enough plays on which Sammy excelled. He ran 38 post routes in 2014, and was targeted less than 16 times. He caught only 5 passes on these routes, but gained a whopping 194 yards on those receptions. It makes zero sense, given this level of productivity, that post routes would comprise only 5.6% of his pass routes for the season.

 

Based on the above, I’m hopeful that Greg Roman will make an effort to not only put Watkins in a position where he can run a greater variety of routes that maximize his range of talents, but also make it a point of emphasis for the QBs to simply give him more chances to make plays on the deep routes that he runs.

 

Feel free to jump in, opine, pick apart, whatever. It’s the offseason…

 

Awesome post, Bandit.

 

Someone once posted some similar data comparing OBJ to Sammy. Both of you reached the same conclusion: Sammy was misused. Had he been used more like OBJ, he probably would have put up OBJ type numbers.

 

I've read informed articles that articulately argued Roman is one of the great run-coordinating gurus of our day. But as a passing game coordinator, his record is mixed. It'll be interesting to see what kind of passing attack he puts together and how he uses Sammy, Harvin, Woods and Clay.

For the older fans...................

 

reminds me of John Rauch's brilliant plan of using O.J. Simpson as a "decoy"

 

 

.

 

Sadly, I'm old enough to remember this.

Edited June 29, 2015 by hondo in seattle

[Dorkington]

I heard Sammy sucks because OBJ, I don't trust this thread.

[hondo in seattle]

I remember reading scouting reports on Sammy saying he's only proficient with two routes: the go route and bubble screen.

 

Curiously, Marrone overused one of those (though infrequently targeting him) and grossly underutilized the other.

[YoloinOhio]

I remember reading scouting reports on Sammy saying he's only proficient with two routes: the go route and bubble screen.

 

Curiously, Marrone overused one of those (though infrequently targeting him) and grossly underutilized the other.

that might have been the college scouting report because he wasn't asked to run an nfl route tree at Clemson, but I have seen multiple nfl people say he was actually a much more polished route runner when it came to the nfl route tree than expected his rookie year.

 

It's always tough to project that a player can do something in the nfl that he wasn't asked to do in college due to the system he was in. The Bills projected well imo.

Edited June 29, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[LB3]

I heard Sammy sucks because OBJ, I don't trust this thread.

OBJ aka ODB aka HOF

[hondo in seattle]

that might have been the college scouting report because he wasn't asked to run an nfl route tree at Clemson, but I have seen multiple nfl people say he was actually a much more polished route runner when it came to the nfl route tree than expected his rookie year.

 

Yolo, I think I heard/read someone from the Bills saying the same. I'm bothered though that even Sammy's detractors said he ran a mean bubble screen and Marrone rarely made use of his ability there.

 

On another note, interesting comment from Football Outsiders in 2013:

 

"Unless something new comes to light, I’m sold that he’s [Watkins'] a high first-round pick with as much to offer as Percy Harvin, if not more."

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2013/futures-clemson-wr-sammy-watkins

[OutOfBubbleGum]

I agree with jr1. His stats weren't too bad for playing with so-so quarterbacking and a average at best line. The amount of times he was targeted and the amount of times the ball was thrown poorly could be put in to this as well. There were a lot of uncatchable balls thrown his way, in all of his routes. How many catches did he have when he had to turn around and put his body in an awkward position that could have resulted in a serious injury? And how many amazing juggle catches did he have to get the stats he has. If the quarterbacking were any better, Sammy would have been on the cover of Madden 15.

[Dorkington]

OBJ aka ODB aka HOF

One Bills Drive?

[LB3]

One Bills Drive?

Sure. Why not?

[yungmack]

Excellent work. Where do you find the time???

Edited June 29, 2015 by yungmack

[YoloinOhio]

 

Yolo, I think I heard/read someone from the Bills saying the same. I'm bothered though that even Sammy's detractors said he ran a mean bubble screen and Marrone rarely made use of his ability there.

 

On another note, interesting comment from Football Outsiders in 2013:

 

"Unless something new comes to light, Im sold that hes [Watkins'] a high first-round pick with as much to offer as Percy Harvin, if not more."

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2013/futures-clemson-wr-sammy-watkins

apparently the reasons they didn't use him on more screens was because of his ribs being more exposed to hits and because they didn't think the OL could block effectively for them. I suppose either or both could be valid excuses, but it doesn't make it any less irritating!

[hondo in seattle]

apparently the reasons they didn't use him on more screens was because of his ribs being more exposed to hits and because they didn't think the OL could block effectively for them. I suppose either or both could be valid excuses, but it doesn't make it any less irritating!

 

 

Yeah, if the second theory is true, it's especially irritating because Marrone was supposed to be a master of offensive line coaching.

 

When Marrone was hired to be the Bills HC, some NO players congratulated him and commented to the media about what great work he did with the OL there. I thought it was interesting because he was actually the OC in the Big Easy but apparently in name only - none of the Saints in the media praised his coordinating skills. I guess Marrone was actually a highly paid OL coach in NO so I expected him to be good at least at that one thing. He wasn't.

 

Maybe with Sammy's ribs healed - and ,hopefully, the OL's problems also healed - we'll see Sammy on more screens this year.

[Kelly the Dog]

Hackett : I can't wait to use Watkins on screens and slants and reverses and any way we can to get him into open space!, No one could stop him at Clemson!!

 

Marrone: Exactly! But think other teams don't know that, too?! We're never gonna do it! We're gonna pull the old switcheroo and run Watkins in ways they'll never ever expect or plan for!!

 

Hackett: I love it!! Let's go out and not do it!!! Yahoooooo!!!

[Bangarang]

#analytics #douggernaut offense

This made me really angry. It's incredible how stupid this guy was.