No QB competition in Jersey: Geno is the starter

[John from Riverside]

I was thinking Bills might take Petty. Good project. wish we grabbed him honestly. Taylor is the unknown.

Cassel over Fitz

Geno should be the starter and his team to lose. Gailey might get him more efficient. got Fitz while bringing up Bryce.

perfect really. Roman might have EJ more efficient. wash.

In order to take Petty we would have had to pass on John Miller.....who is running with the ones

[ALF]

If Chan can't make Geno look good no one can.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

God is good.

 

[3rdand12]

In order to take Petty we would have had to pass on John Miller.....who is running with the ones

Oh have no doubt i am pleased . it would have been a luxury.

I just feel he might the best of the second tier and have a ceiling higher than Geno.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

In his defense, it's not like he had a good qb here and couldn't "identify" him. Does he get credit for "identifying" troy aikman as his starter in Dallas?

 

I think WEO is trying to make the point that since Trentative got benched for Fitz at the end of the previous season, one might have expected him to have a lead on the starting job.

Yet Trentative got the nod as the starter, and when Fitz came in it was clear Fitz >> Trentative.

 

The thing is, and that highlights a key point, Trentative did look much better than Fitz - in a red shirt and shorts. Fitz looked brutal, and his arm strength was clearly limited. If Trentative had gotten over whatever was bothering him, he would have been the better choice.

 

That key point is why folks here should take it with a grain of salt that our QB challenge is a "meritocracy" with the past in the past. Part of a QB merit is how he actually performs with 300 lb behemouths in his face with intent to plaster him on the turf, and we won't really see that in full even in preseason games because most teams don't gameplan too much. So past performance in actual games is on the coaches' mind, if they're smart coaches, whatever they say.

[Nanker]

 

Same. I championed Geno starting back in the August before his final college season. Not so much as an immediate starter though.

 

Interesting that Gailey isnt backing Fitz, but I have to imagine he sees it as the better move for the team in general. Fitz is a known quantity who should only be there as a vet backup. They'll sink or swim with Geno.

Fitzy's nursing a broken leg still.

[SCD]

It will be pretty interesting to see what kind of offense the Jets utilize throughout their season. If Geno struggled with Morningwegs offense, not sure how the WCO concepts system and intricacies will work out for him. My initial thought is that Geno might continue throwing interceptions. In which case Fitz can come, make some plays, and then throw the game winning interception.

 

Honestly though, even more interesting of the Jets roster is the magnificent stable of running backs they too have quietly built. Ivory, Ridley, Stacy, Richardson, Powell - and TJ Graham on the end around (or laying down for the fake around)

[Mr. WEO]

In his defense, it's not like he had a good qb here and couldn't "identify" him. Does he get credit for "identifying" troy aikman as his starter in Dallas?

 

He's in an identical situation coming into the Jets.

 

The difference is that in Buffalo,l he took a long hard look at what he had and he stil picked Trent, realizing only 2 weeks later it was a bad mistake.

 

In NYJ, Chan isn't even going to see how they look preseason.

 

 

 

I think WEO is trying to make the point that since Trentative got benched for Fitz at the end of the previous season, one might have expected him to have a lead on the starting job.

Yet Trentative got the nod as the starter, and when Fitz came in it was clear Fitz >> Trentative.

 

The thing is, and that highlights a key point, Trentative did look much better than Fitz - in a red shirt and shorts. Fitz looked brutal, and his arm strength was clearly limited. If Trentative had gotten over whatever was bothering him, he would have been the better choice.

 

That key point is why folks here should take it with a grain of salt that our QB challenge is a "meritocracy" with the past in the past. Part of a QB merit is how he actually performs with 300 lb behemouths in his face with intent to plaster him on the turf, and we won't really see that in full even in preseason games because most teams don't gameplan too much. So past performance in actual games is on the coaches' mind, if they're smart coaches, whatever they say.

 

 

Bingo.

 

I went to several camp sessions that year and I thought Fitz looked good and commented here that he's not the guy they were going to cut befroe the season.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

He's in an identical situation coming into the Jets.

 

The difference is that in Buffalo,l he took a long hard look at what he had and he stil picked Trent, realizing only 2 weeks later it was a bad mistake.

In NYJ, Chan isn't even going to see how they look preseason.

I went to several camp sessions that year and I thought Fitz looked good and commented here that he's not the guy they were going to cut befroe the season.

 

Interesting, WEO. I don't remember comments specifically about camp, but I do remember several commenting that Fitz didn't look good in the preseason games that year. Of course, I don't know what was in front of him as far as line, or what he was throwing to as far as WR. Did you feel Fitz looked clearly better than Trentative in camp?

 

My feeling is that Chan's situation is different with the Jets, in that he coached Fitz for several years and has probably kept up watching what film he can while Fitz was playing for the Titans and Texans. So he knows what he has with Fitz, and Fitz is still rehabbing a broken leg and won't look his best. IMHO it only makes sense to give the lions share of the early reps to Geno and see what he's got. Plus if it's true that Geno is soft-headed to coaching, the only way to build rappore with him is to talk him up.

 

With Buffalo, there was also the FO /Wilson factor while Chan was here. In NY, he's not the HC, so there's the FO/HC factor. The higher draft pick is perceived as having the higher ceiling and always gets the benefit of the doubt. Again, can't deny that Chan went with the wrong QB, just that there may be more to it than Chan's football judgement then, and there may be more to it now.

[YoloinOhio]

Maybe the Jets are tanking for McEichel

[Kelly the Dog]

Fitz can't even practice. I expect Geno to be benched by game 7-8.

[Mr. WEO]

 

Interesting, WEO. I don't remember comments specifically about camp, but I do remember several commenting that Fitz didn't look good in the preseason games that year. Of course, I don't know what was in front of him as far as line, or what he was throwing to as far as WR. Did you feel Fitz looked clearly better than Trentative in camp?

 

My feeling is that Chan's situation is different with the Jets, in that he coached Fitz for several years and has probably kept up watching what film he can while Fitz was playing for the Titans and Texans. So he knows what he has with Fitz, and Fitz is still rehabbing a broken leg and won't look his best. IMHO it only makes sense to give the lions share of the early reps to Geno and see what he's got. Plus if it's true that Geno is soft-headed to coaching, the only way to build rappore with him is to talk him up.

 

With Buffalo, there was also the FO /Wilson factor while Chan was here. In NY, he's not the HC, so there's the FO/HC factor. The higher draft pick is perceived as having the higher ceiling and always gets the benefit of the doubt. Again, can't deny that Chan went with the wrong QB, just that there may be more to it than Chan's football judgement then, and there may be more to it now.

 

 

I felt Fitz looked calm, cool. Threw OK. Trent was spastic. He was heckled, as you recall..

 

As for Geno, I'm certain it was Woody making that call, not just Chan.

[Kelly the Dog]

I felt Fitz looked calm, cool. Threw OK. Trent was spastic. He was heckled, as you recall..

 

As for Geno, I'm certain it was Woody making that call, not just Chan.

 

Trent is a great practice player and also looks good in preseason. There was no way IMO that he could have known from what he saw with his own eyes and annoint Fitz the starter. Fitz is a gamer and his strength is usually processing information. When the real games started it became glaringly obvious that Trent panics when rushed and couldn't perform at the high level he does at practice. Which is why he not only benched him but shitcanned him. But you can't really fault him too much for it because he could carry out Chan's offense very very well in camp.

 

I don't know this but I imagine, like most coaches, they believe they can prepare guys and teach them to play. Chan probably hoped he could coach Trent up but feared that he was going to revert to Trentative when the real bullets flew. When his fears were realized early he cut the cord early.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I felt Fitz looked calm, cool. Threw OK. Trent was spastic. He was heckled, as you recall..

 

As for Geno, I'm certain it was Woody making that call, not just Chan.

 

He was indeed heckled, but yet I recall people saying Trent looked very good in shorts that preseason.

 

Where do you think Bowles factors in this? I dunno, could be - or could be Chan. That guy is crazy like a fox, and if you listen to what he said, he really committed to nothing. "For now" "expect".

 

Geno has shown flashes. The same "I can coach him up to look more like he does at his best" factor may apply as may have applied to Trentative.

[BuffaloHokie13]

I don't know what goes into DVOA for a QB, but I don't think ESPN likes Geno's outlook

 

QBs Most Similar to Geno Smith by DVOA in First Two Years, 1989-2014
Player Years Y1 DVOA Y1 Rank Y2 DVOA Y2 Rank

Geno Smith 2013-2014 -23.6% 40 -12.5% 31

Kyle Boller 2003-2004 -26.0% 41 -14.6% 28

Jake Locker 2012-2013* -23.6% 32 -5.7% 22

Tim Couch 1999-2000 -28.4% 44 -15.1% 34

Rick Mirer 1993-1994 -15.7% 33 -12.5% 34

Joey Harrington 2002-2003 -20.9% 42 -18.2% 39

Trent Dilfer 1994-1995 -31.0% 38 -11.3% 34

Charlie Frye 2005-2006 -21.4% 36 -18.9% 37

Billy Joe Tolliver 1989-1990 -21.4% 36 -5.9% 21

Steve Walsh 1989-1990 -20.6% 35 -5.9% 22

Jake Plummer 1997-1998 -17.7% 38 -8.4% 29

*Locker was a rookie in 2011; these are his first two seasons with 100 attempts.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Trent is a great practice player and also looks good in preseason. There was no way IMO that he could have known from what he saw with his own eyes and annoint Fitz the starter. Fitz is a gamer and his strength is usually processing information. When the real games started it became glaringly obvious that Trent panics when rushed and couldn't perform at the high level he does at practice. Which is why he not only benched him but shitcanned him. But you can't really fault him too much for it because he could carry out Chan's offense very very well in camp.

 

I don't know this but I imagine, like most coaches, they believe they can prepare guys and teach them to play. Chan probably hoped he could coach Trent up but feared that he was going to revert to Trentative when the real bullets flew. When his fears were realized early he cut the cord early.

 

Great points. OTOH, Chan had game film of the previous seasons to watch, so there's a bit of "not invented here" if he didn't grasp a discrepency from the game films. I imagine you're right, he thought he could coach him up, and when he matched the game films after a few games, b-bye!.

 

I imagine some of that same "I can coach him up" thinking applies to Geno, who has looked both better at times and far worse at times than EJ/Glennon/etc.

I don't know what goes into DVOA for a QB, but I don't think ESPN likes Geno's outlook

 

QBs Most Similar to Geno Smith by DVOA in First Two Years, 1989-2014

Player Years Y1 DVOA Y1 Rank Y2 DVOA Y2 Rank

 

Geno Smith 2013-2014 -23.6% 40 -12.5% 31

 

Kyle Boller 2003-2004 -26.0% 41 -14.6% 28

 

Jake Locker 2012-2013* -23.6% 32 -5.7% 22

 

Tim Couch 1999-2000 -28.4% 44 -15.1% 34

 

Rick Mirer 1993-1994 -15.7% 33 -12.5% 34

 

Joey Harrington 2002-2003 -20.9% 42 -18.2% 39

 

Trent Dilfer 1994-1995 -31.0% 38 -11.3% 34

 

Charlie Frye 2005-2006 -21.4% 36 -18.9% 37

 

Billy Joe Tolliver 1989-1990 -21.4% 36 -5.9% 21

 

Steve Walsh 1989-1990 -20.6% 35 -5.9% 22

 

Jake Plummer 1997-1998 -17.7% 38 -8.4% 29

 

*Locker was a rookie in 2011; these are his first two seasons with 100 attempts.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA

 

I respect Football Outsiders, but they are somewhat opaque about the details of their methods, leaving one to wonder how much "eyeball factor" comes into them.

Do you have a subscription? If so, how does Manuel fare in that analysis?

[Kelly the Dog]

Great points. OTOH, Chan had game film of the previous seasons to watch, so there's a bit of "not invented here" if he didn't grasp a discrepency from the game films. I imagine you're right, he thought he could coach him up, and when he matched the game films after a few games, b-bye!.

 

I imagine some of that same "I can coach him up" thinking applies to Geno, who has looked both better at times and far worse at times than EJ/Glennon/etc.

It's the NFL. The highest level. All coaches have huge egos and believe they can coaches these guys up. I'm sure Chan believes he can do it with Geno.

 

I couldn't believe what other people thought they saw with Trent, before Chan got here. In my opinion he always sucked when there was any rush. He was great at one specific thing, which was a pre snap read where he already knew where he was going with it, even if hat meant his second progression, then dropping back, setting up and firing a short dart. He was excellent at that. But that's all he could do. Any time he was pressured he panicked. But he looked so good and accurate on a healthy number of plays that people wrongly saw hat as a guy with a ton of potential. But he always sucked. Which again IMO is what Gailey feared but he also had enough ego to believe he could coach him up. Almost no one goes from starter to the street if you have been with the team all off season. Chan just realized Trent was going to be Trent of game day not practice.

[RyanC883]

 

Well, sure. But then, Gailey annointed Trent Edwards the Bills starter before one season, and how did that turn out?

 

with me wanting Gailey gone!

[BuffaloHokie13]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA

 

I respect Football Outsiders, but they are somewhat opaque about the details of their methods, leaving one to wonder how much "eyeball factor" comes into them.

Do you have a subscription? If so, how does Manuel fare in that analysis?

A friend bought me an insider subscription, but they didn't do an analysis on EJ in the article I pulled that from. It does say that he ranked 37th in 2013 (-19.9%) and 38th in 14 (-17.1%) FWIW. Based on the Geno Table that lines up best with Joey Harrington and Charlie Frye

Edited May 21, 2015 by BuffaloHokie13

[Storm Front]

If anyone can polish a turd QB it's Gailey.