Fred ain't Dead

[hondo in seattle]

Not true. This is always thrown around here and it's simply not true. The Bills' offensive line was very good in 2007-2008 and one of the best in the league in 2012. And it wasn't awful in between. Quite honestly, the worst it's ever been since Jackson has been here was last year.

 

In 2011, Fred averaged 3.7 yards after contact (best in the NFL). He averaged 5.5 yards per carry that year. In other words, he was only averaging 1.8 yards before contact. That's bad OL play.

 

Another interesting stat... B. Brown averaged 4.6 ypc with the Eagles. He averaged 3.5 with us. Because our line sucks.

 

It's been a long time since (1) the Bills OL could reliably create push in short yardage situations, or (2) the line could open holes for the backs with any consistency. The Bills OL average Run Block ranking (according to PFF) since Freddy became the starter in 2009 is #24. I'm surprised they rate our line that good.

 

Curiously, you cite 2007-2008 as years when the OL excelled ("one of the best in the league."). This was prior to Fred beating Lynch out for the starting job. In any case, a talented Lynch barely averaged a pedestrian 4.0 ypc behind that "very good" offensive line. With Seattle, Lynch is averaging 4.4 ypc.

 

Apparently that line wasn't as nearly as good as Seattle's. It was, I grant, better than some of the OLs we've seen since.

Edited May 14, 2015 by hondo in seattle

[Gugny]

 

In 2011, Fred averaged 3.7 yards after contact (best in the NFL). He averaged 5.5 yards per carry that year. In other words, he was only averaging 1.8 yards before contact. That's bad OL play.

 

Another interesting stat... B. Brown averaged 4.6 ypc with the Eagles. He averaged 3.5 with us. Because our line sucks.

 

It's been a long time since (1) the Bills OL could reliably create push in short yardage situations, or (2) the line could open holes for the backs with any consistency.

 

Curiously, you cite 2007-2008 as years when the OL excelled ("one of the best in the league."). This was prior to Fred beating Lynch out for the starting job. In any case, a talented Lynch barely averaged a pedestrian 4.0 ypc behind that "very good" offensive line. With Seattle, an aging Lynch is averaging 4.4 ypc. Apparently that line wasn't as nearly as good as Seattle's. It was, I grant, better than some of the OLs we've seen since.

 

Fred never beat Lynch out. Lynch fell out of favor and got the ball less as a result.

[PromoTheRobot]

2007: Lynch - 1115 yds; 7 TD; 4 YPC

Fred - 300 yds; 0 TD; 5.2 YPC

 

2008: Lynch - 1036 yds; 8 TD; 4.1 YPC

Fred - 571 yds; 3 TD; 4.4 YPC

 

2009: Lynch - 450 yds; 2 TD; 3.8 YPC

Fred - 1062 yds; 2 TD; 4.5 YPC

I meant using "common" when you meant "come on."

[Gugny]

I meant using "common" when you meant "come on."

Oh, sorry!

 

But at least it gave me a chance to post the stats that clearly show that Lynch was far superior to Jackson whilst both played for the Bills.

[dave mcbride]

So, prorating 10 games for Fred vs Shady's 6 years makes Fred better? Anyone can spin something in one direction or the other. But, the best gauge of future performance is past performance. I love Fred. But, let's be realistic!

You're misinterpreting what I was trying to convey. See subsequent posts.

Oh, sorry!

 

But at least it gave me a chance to post the stats that clearly show that Lynch was far superior to Jackson whilst both played for the Bills.

Lynch was great in his rookie season and good in his second season. People have a tendency forget that. He missed 3 games in his first season.

[....lybob]

Who's going to be our third-down back if it's Fred then I could see RBs McCoy, Jackson, Williams FBs Felton, Connor

 

If Fred is not going to be the third-down back if it's going to be McCoy then I could see RBs McCoy, Dixon, Williams FBs Felton, Connor

 

 

Fred averaged 3.7 yards per carry while Dixon averaged 4.1

 

Fred has certainly proven to be a good pass catcher out of the backfield something that Dixon has not

 

Dixon plays special teams something Fred does not

[smapdi]

Oh wow, some of the posts in this thread are ridiculous. Look, I absolutely love FJax & everything he has done for this team and the community. He's been a stand up guy, a team leader, & a great all around RB. But there is no way in hell FJax is currently a better RB then LeSean McCoy- that is just insanity. Jackson in his prime a few years back was not better then Shady McCoy.

 

McCoy is an elite RB (top 3) right now. If you polled all 32 GMs, every single one would choose McCoy. Shady has the most rushing yards of any NFL RB over the past 5 seasons. He is also extremely durable coming off bacK to back 300+ carry seasons.

 

 

The last 2 seasons in PHI, McCoy has:

 

626 carries / 2926 yards / 4.65 ypc / 14 rushing TD / 80 receptions / 694 rec yards / 2 TD / 26 plays of 20+ yards / 7 plays of 40+ yards

 

That is elite production.

 

Father time has definitely caught up to FJax. He only averaged 3.7 ypc last season. Over the past 2 seasons, he has 12 plays of 20+ yards & a single 40+ yard play. He was never a super explosive runner to begin with and he has slowed down.

 

 

I am all for an open competition at every single position on this team; RB included. Let Shady,FJax, Boobie, Bryce Brown, & Karlos Williams battle it out.

 

McCoy is obviously going to out perform everyone & win the starting job. I think the real battle to watch is FJax, Boobie, Bryce Brown, & Karlos Williams fight for the remaining 2 RB roster spots.

 

I'm almost positive Bryce Brown is going to be cut/traded. I'm hoping FJax can out play one of Boobie or Karlos and stick around. But if Karlos Williams looks like a stud & Boobie plays well and keeps up his very good special teams play, I wont be outraged if FJAX is odd man out

[Buffaloed in Pa]

Fred has no future,no upside. Young, faster ,stronger back all in front of him now. It`

[Punching Bag]

I have never once though. "Fred can break this for a TD when he gets a ball handed to him" When the ball was deep inside Buffalo territory.

And I have never said because CountChokula said something it has to be true because it is more likely the opposite.

What difference does it make? Do you think you are the irrevelant Kiper on this board without the fake acolytes?

[metzelaars_lives]

 

In 2011, Fred averaged 3.7 yards after contact (best in the NFL). He averaged 5.5 yards per carry that year. In other words, he was only averaging 1.8 yards before contact. That's bad OL play.

 

Another interesting stat... B. Brown averaged 4.6 ypc with the Eagles. He averaged 3.5 with us. Because our line sucks.

 

It's been a long time since (1) the Bills OL could reliably create push in short yardage situations, or (2) the line could open holes for the backs with any consistency. The Bills OL average Run Block ranking (according to PFF) since Freddy became the starter in 2009 is #24. I'm surprised they rate our line that good.

 

Curiously, you cite 2007-2008 as years when the OL excelled ("one of the best in the league."). This was prior to Fred beating Lynch out for the starting job. In any case, a talented Lynch barely averaged a pedestrian 4.0 ypc behind that "very good" offensive line. With Seattle, Lynch is averaging 4.4 ypc.

 

Apparently that line wasn't as nearly as good as Seattle's. It was, I grant, better than some of the OLs we've seen since.

I said our line sucked last year.

 

I said they were very good in 2007-08. They were. They were elite in pass blocking before Peters left and sufficient in run blocking. I said they were one of the best in the league in 2012. They absolutely were. They clearly regressed under Marrone.

 

Fred never beat Lynch out. Lynch fell out of favor and got the ball less as a result.

Disagree completely.

[machine gun kelly]

I hope that's not the case. McCoy had proven to be an elite running back,Fred hasn't.

 

Freddy will retire a Bill, most likely after this season. The Bills took care of him financially and he's built a legacy in Buffalo.

I agree. This is Fred's last year. He gets to retire a Bill. The problem as much as I have always been a Fredex fan is he is slowing down a little, and he doesn't play special teams.. Back up running backs always have to contribute on ST. That's the problem with older WR, TE, or RB's.

[CountDorkula]

And I have never said because CountChokula said something it has to be true because it is more likely the opposite.

What difference does it make? Do you think you are the irrevelant Kiper on this board without the fake acolytes?

 

What in the world is this?

 

P.S. You got my name wrong.

[papazoid]

Fred has no future,no upside. Young, faster ,stronger back all in front of him now. It`

 

the future is now......and fred is the 2nd best RB on this team.

[Storm Front]

When the Bills let Bruce, Andre and Thurman go it set the franchise back quite a bit. Maybe that is the team's curse, not Flutie, though that was pretty shittty too. Free agents didn't want to play for a team that would do such a thing to its core members. Letting Fred go this summer would have the same effect on this team. Team morale would reach a significant low and most fans would be ticked not tickled..

[Gugny]

The team's curse was an out-of-touch owner and crappy GMs who hired crappy coaches.

[papazoid]

the curse is drafting too many first round finesse/skill players (db, rb & wr) and not enough big ugly's (front 7's).

[thebandit27]

the curse is drafting too many first round finesse/skill players (db, rb & wr) and not enough big ugly's (front 7's).

 

And yet the last 3 Superbowl-winning teams were constructed the exact same way.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

And yet the last 3 Superbowl-winning teams were constructed the exact same way.

 

the curse is drafting too many first round finesse/skill players (db, rb & wr) and not enough big ugly's (front 7's).

You can construct a team a lot of different ways and win a Super Bowl. I don't think that this has anything to do with why the Bills haven't won. In fact, it really couldn't have less to do with it.

 

The reason that the Bills have been bad is a combination of coaching and QB play. They have tried to address the position a few times: Losman, Edwards, Fitz and EJ. It just hasn't worked. The level of talent has risen quite a bit on this team and while they were a 6-7 win team with those guys they may be able to get to 10-11 with the current talent. They still have a ceiling though because of their QB play. Good QB play (Flacco) would be enough to win the Super Bowl with this roster. It isn't that the Bills need Brady, Brees, Rodgers or Manning to have a chance. They can even go down 2 tiers and still compete for a title. Unfortunately they are 4 tiers down now IMO.

Edited May 15, 2015 by Kirby Jackson

[Buffaloed in Pa]

When the Bills let Bruce, Andre and Thurman go it set the franchise back quite a bit. Maybe that is the team's curse, not Flutie, though that was pretty shittty too. Free agents didn't want to play for a team that would do such a thing to its core members. Letting Fred go this summer would have the same effect on this team. Team morale would reach a significant low and most fans would be ticked not tickled..

Yatta,yatta,yatta. It`s a business. Fred would be stealing a spot from any other back on the team. The other three were hall of fame players. Fred is a average rb in his best yrs. Only in Buff ,do some fans think he was the it. Let it go. Move on.

[Dorkington]

I don't understand why he's either gotta be the extreme of "best on the team" or "worthless and should be let go"... why can't he just be a change of pace back that gets like 25% of the carries? I'm sure the lesser load will help keep him fresh as well.