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Russell Wilson and the Seahawks negotiations (update:signed)


YoloinOhio

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Wilson is a good QB. He does a lot well, he's smart and decisive. He uses his legs wisely. He's not a superstar talent, though. He's not elite, but he's been successful enough that he's going to be paid like he is. He's got a good enough resume and enough on field success that Seatle won't have much choice in the end. They're going to have to pay him very well. Not Aaron Rogers well, but close to Joe Flacco well.

 

And who knows what that means anyway. Can anyone make sense of the pay scale for QBs?:

 

http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/

The caps on pace to have gone up from 123 m when flacco re-signed at the close of his rookie deal to estimates of 155m or more next year at the close of wilsons. Qb salaries are bound to naturally continue to shoot up. We won't see a real standoff until the revenues flat line and players think the pay checks should keep going up 10% a year.

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The caps on pace to have gone up from 123 m when flacco re-signed at the close of his rookie deal to estimates of 155m or more next year at the close of wilsons. Qb salaries are bound to naturally continue to shoot up. We won't see a real standoff until the revenues flat line and players think the pay checks should keep going up 10% a year.

True, but Flacco got his contract after he carried his team on his back through the playoffs right to a Super Bowl win. Wilson has won one, but hasn't put in that level of performance. I figured that difference in productions and the rise in cap space would just about balance each other out and Wilson would wind up at about the same place.

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At some point, NFL teams are going to start balking at these crazy QB contracts for non elite QBs. I think Wilson is a great QB if he's put in the perfect situation like he was with Seattle. However, IMO he is not on the same elite level of Brady or Rodgers. QBs who don't need a lot of great players around them to win in the NFL.

 

It will be very interesting to watch Wilson's career post Marshawn Lynch. I think he might start looking like an average QB if his team starts lacking both a great running game and great defense.

 

 

Yes, Seattle has a great defense, but that didn't help Orton much last year, did it? Tell me again who the great players are around Wilson. Who was he throwing the ball to? He would be snapped up in a second (and for big $$) if Seattle doesn't lock him up.
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There is obviously a lot of posturing going on here, as in any big money negotiation.

 

Let's get real. In the absence of any viable alternative, the 'hawks simply do not let Wilson walk. Paul Allen is not that dumb, and he certainly has the money to pay Wilson, a brilliant playmaker who is close to being the kind of elite quarterback that teams just do not part with.

 

Why would Seattle willfully place itself in the same crappy QB predicament that the Bills and 20 other have-not teams are in?

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No he won't

 

I'm pretty sure you didn't understand the tjax conversations at all if you think people thought he was great

 

The Hawks are a disciplined franchise? I've never had that impression but maybe you have a different perspective

That's right. The noise made about TJ never made sense since he sucks.

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Yes, Seattle has a great defense, but that didn't help Orton much last year, did it? Tell me again who the great players are around Wilson. Who was he throwing the ball to? He would be snapped up in a second (and for big $$) if Seattle doesn't lock him up.

You left off one of the best power run games in football to go with that defense. Orton didn't have that last year....

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While I'm not holding my breath, I'd love to see the Seahawks mess this one up.

 

The 2016 class of free agent QBs is kind of loaded. No doubt that Philip Rivers, Eli Manning or Sam Bradford would all go there much cheaper than Mr. Russell "I want to be the highest paid player in the league" Wilson. Not only that, but those are the type of QBs that don't need one of the greatest ground games in NFL history as support. Other QBs who might be available are Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler, Nick Foles or RGIII.

 

Seattle's best move might be to force Russell to lower his salary expectations or make him play at 1.5 million, knowing they could get someone just as good or better next off season.

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You left off one of the best power run games in football to go with that defense. Orton didn't have that last year....

The Seahawks had a good running game. Big deal. (Apparently Pete Carroll was not particularly confident in the Hawks' "power run game" when he most needed it.) Other teams ran the ball well too, and last I checked, the run no longer sets up the pass in the NFL. How do we know it wasn't Wilson who opened opportunities for Lynch by preventing teams from stacking the box against the run? And Wilson did it throwing to the worst receiving group this side of the Jets. Other than Luck and maybe Rogers, he would command the most $$ of any QB in football in a pure open market. It is absurd to say he is not elite. Edited by mannc
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The Seahawks had a good running game. Big deal. (Apparently Pete Carroll was not particularly confident in the Hawks' "power run game" when he most needed it.) Other teams ran the ball well too, and last I checked, the run no longer sets up the pass in the NFL. How do we know it wasn't Wilson who opened opportunities for Lynch by preventing teams from stacking the box against the run? And Wilson did it throwing to the worst receiving group this side of the Jets. Other than Luck and maybe Rogers, he would command the most $$ any QB in football in a pure open market. It is absurd to say he is not elite.

i think he's very good, I don't know if he's an elite QB yet, as I think there are only a few actives who fit into that. But the Seahawks are at the bottom of the league in pass attempts so I'm thinking they do indeed use the run to set up the pass, and rarely need to come from behind due to their defense and ball controlled offense. Edited by YoloinOhio
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The Seahawks had a good running game. Big deal. (Apparently Pete Carroll was not particularly confident in the Hawks' "power run game" when he most needed it.) Other teams ran the ball well too, and last I checked, the run no longer sets up the pass in the NFL. How do we know it wasn't Wilson who opened opportunities for Lynch by preventing teams from stacking the box against the run? And Wilson did it throwing to the worst receiving group this side of the Jets. Other than Luck and maybe Rogers, he would command the most $$ of any QB in football in a pure open market. It is absurd to say he is not elite.

 

Are you including his read option in him being elite? Since when is 3,500 yds passing 20tds 7ints elite?

 

Luck - 4,700 yds passing 40 tds 16 ints

Rodgers - 4,300 yds passing 38 tds 5 ints

Brees - 4,900 yds passing 33 tds 17 ints

P Manning - 4,700 yds passing 39 tds 15 ints

Roethlisberger - 4,900 yds passing 32 tds 9 ints

Ryan - 4,700 yds passing 28 tds 14 ints

E Manning - 4,400 yds passing 30 tds 14 ints

Rivers - 4,300 yds passing 31 tds 18 ints

Tannehill - 4,000 yds passing 27 tds 12 ints

Brady - 4,100 yds passing 33 tds 9 ints

 

At what point do we consider his passing to be average among the good QB's but not elite? If you want to include his rushing stats in his passing stats go for it. They still don't eclipse the top 7 QBS in total yards or TD's.

 

And before you consider passing attempts, consider what you just said and replace it with "Pete Carroll was not particularly confident in the Hawks' passing game during the regular season."

Edited by What a Tuel
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i think he's very good, I don't know if he's an elite QB yet, as I think there are only a few actives who fit into that. But the Seahawks are at the bottom of the league in pass attempts so I'm thinking they do indeed use the run to set up the pass, and rarely need to come from behind due to their defense and ball controlled offense.

Maybe so. I'm just sick of hearing people hate on a guy who is a proven leader and has done nothing but win since he came into the league. If he became a FA, which will never happen, teams would be falling all over themselves to sign him to a huge deal. Look what the Phins just gave a guy who can't even complete a pass 15 yards downfield, for crissakes.
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Are you including his read option in him being elite? Since when is 3,500 yds passing 20tds 7ints elite?

 

Luck - 4,700 yds passing 40 tds 16 ints

Rodgers - 4,300 yds passing 38 tds 5 ints

Brees - 4,900 yds passing 33 tds 17 ints

P Manning - 4,700 yds passing 39 tds 15 ints

Roethlisberger - 4,900 yds passing 32 tds 9 ints

Ryan - 4,700 yds passing 28 tds 14 ints

E Manning - 4,400 yds passing 30 tds 14 ints

Rivers - 4,300 yds passing 31 tds 18 ints

Tannehill - 4,000 yds passing 27 tds 12 ints

Brady - 4,100 yds passing 33 tds 9 ints

 

At what point do we consider his passing to be average among the good QB's but not elite? If you want to include his rushing stats in his passing stats go for it. They still don't eclipse the top 7 QBS in total yards or TD's.

 

And before you consider passing attempts, consider what you just said and replace it with "Pete Carroll was not particularly confident in the Hawks' passing game during the regular season."

As Yolo points out, they did not need to throw the ball much because they rarely had to come from behind. And no one can deny that the 'Hawks receiving corps was trash.
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As Yolo points out, they did not need to throw the ball much because they rarely had to come from behind. And no one can deny that the 'Hawks receiving corps was trash.

 

True, because of the great running game, and the defense. Are we to just assume that 600 passing attempts per season would result in elite QB numbers? I won't make that leap yet. Maybe we will see that when Lynch retires, and we will find out.,

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it is interesting that they basically followed the same model we are trying to follow

 

- Cheap QB contract

- Money went into everything else AROUND the QB

they threw everything they could at qb, and happened into a cheap one that worked. we arent some strange model. we are doing what every team in the league that doesnt have a qb tries to do. throw mid tier vets and draft picks at it and doing whatever you can elsewhere.

 

they got lucky hitting on A LOT of good draft picks at the same time at big positions and thats how you DOMINATE for a few years. then you settle into a vet qb that keeps you a contender while shuffling pieces around him hoping to get the couple lucky bounces or draft picks that get you from division winner to SB.

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Maybe so. I'm just sick of hearing people hate on a guy who is a proven leader and has done nothing but win since he came into the league. If he became a FA, which will never happen, teams would be falling all over themselves to sign him to a huge deal. Look what the Phins just gave a guy who can't even complete a pass 15 yards downfield, for crissakes.

 

I don't think there is much hating on Russell Wilson going on. Everyone has said he is a very good Quarterback. What people are saying is that he isn't elite and that the money other "very good" but not elite guys (Flacco and Newton for example) have got is about the right place for his contract, and based on their per year averages those two guys are top 5 on the pay scale. If you think saying pay someone like a top 5 Quarterback is "hating" on him then I'm not sure I agree with your assessment of "hating".

 

Do I question whether he would be as good without the Seattle defence and Marshawn Lynch? Yes, and I think it is a fair question to ask. We will get an answer one way or the other too because either Seattle let him walk (highly unlikely) or they have to let others walk around him to pay Wilson.

Edited by GunnerBill
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The Seahawks had a good running game. Big deal. (Apparently Pete Carroll was not particularly confident in the Hawks' "power run game" when he most needed it.) Other teams ran the ball well too, and last I checked, the run no longer sets up the pass in the NFL. How do we know it wasn't Wilson who opened opportunities for Lynch by preventing teams from stacking the box against the run? And Wilson did it throwing to the worst receiving group this side of the Jets. Other than Luck and maybe Rogers, he would command the most $$ of any QB in football in a pure open market. It is absurd to say he is not elite.

 

You should check again. There are indeed teams that use the run to set up the pass in the NFL - 4 of them come to mind.

 

The problem with generalizations like "the run no longer sets up the pass in the NFL" is that while it can be true on average (and is), that really doesn't tell you anything about the specifics of how an individual team works, or whether a strategy could work.

 

I'm not sure Wilson would command the most $$ of any QB other than Luck or Rodgers, but he would certainly get a big contract on the open market in this QB-poor seller's market.

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