Would you punt 4th & 2 down 14 points?

[Niagara Dude]

This is no brainer that Marrone again screwed up, you are down 14 points with about 6 mins left and need 2 yards.This guy is more worried about style points and showing close games against good teams then trying to win the game.He was a conservative coach in college and nothing as changed much since.

[Pete]

Capitulate Doug would. He has proved that over and over. It is akin to Orton sliding on 3rd and 1

[NoSaint]

that would be a tough one for me to call without looking at the numbers -- but i suspect the numbers say go for it. im curious to see the NYT write up on this weeks game decisions.

[Cash]

The 4th down bot didn't kill Marrone for that one, but mostly because our chances of winning were very low either way:

 

http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play.html?gameid=12072014_BUF@DEN&playid=201412070073504

 

Personally, I think it was an indefensible move. The reasonable best-case scenario* is a quick 3-and-out followed by a punt, and that happened. Result: we got the ball back right where we started, but with about 2 minutes fewer on the clock. And guess what? We still needed to convert a 4th and 16 to advance the ball the next time! If we can pick up a 4th and 16, why can't we pick up a 4th and 2 from about the same spot?

 

*Obviously a muffed punt recovered by the Bills, or roughing the kicker penalty, or CJ Anderson fumble would've been better scenarios, but those are very unlikely and not something a coach can really plan on.

[NoSaint]

The 4th down bot didn't kill Marrone for that one, but mostly because our chances of winning were very low either way:

 

http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play.html?gameid=12072014_BUF@DEN&playid=201412070073504

 

Personally, I think it was an indefensible move. The reasonable best-case scenario* is a quick 3-and-out followed by a punt, and that happened. Result: we got the ball back right where we started, but with about 2 minutes fewer on the clock. And guess what? We still needed to convert a 4th and 16 to advance the ball the next time! If we can pick up a 4th and 16, why can't we pick up a 4th and 2 from about the same spot?

 

*Obviously a muffed punt recovered by the Bills, or roughing the kicker penalty, or CJ Anderson fumble would've been better scenarios, but those are very unlikely and not something a coach can really plan on.

 

thats about how i felt.

 

going against manning, im guessing the 3 and out is tough to bank on - but we got it.

[The Big Cat]

Bad news: Marrone will be the coach in 2015.

 

Your campaign is futile.

[rumblefish]

could be worst they could hire Rex Ryan, now that would be a kick in the nads

[GunnerBill]

I thought it was the right call in all honesty. If we didn't get it they kicked a field goal and the game was done. I thought that punt it away, play defense take your time outs and get the ball back was the right call. The problem was that we then took too long to get down the field. We got the ball back with 4:20 to play and took 3:25 to score. If you score quicker you have some more freedom about the onside kick.... and regardless of whether you onside kick it you are makign the Bronocs run a couple of plays rather than just kneel and you can send your guys in hard after a strip or whatever it might be.

 

I do, however, accept that I more conservative than most on 4th down tries. I hated the call at 0-0 in game where you know field position is going to be key.

[26CornerBlitz]

Bad news: Marrone will be the coach in 2015.

 

Your campaign is futile.

 

Will this make you happy?

[Max997]

You absolutely do not punt there on the road down two scores with under 6 mins or whatever it was left especially vs Manning when the distance to make isnt long

 

Chargers did same thing last night and didnt get ball back until under 2 mins left

 

 

what do you have better odds of getting? the first on 4th and 2 or the onsides kick?

[BuffaloBillsForever]

This is no brainer that Marrone again screwed up, you are down 14 points with about 6 mins left and need 2 yards.This guy is more worried about style points and showing close games against good teams then trying to win the game.He was a conservative coach in college and nothing as changed much since.

 

Our forward thinking, analytical head coach in action.

 

Our Dick Jauron clone got skittish after the failed 4th down conversion earlier in the game, but based on Marrones super conservative management in-game I didn't expect any other decision from him.

[Pondslider]

I thought it was the right call in all honesty. If we didn't get it they kicked a field goal and the game was done. I thought that punt it away, play defense take your time outs and get the ball back was the right call. The problem was that we then took too long to get down the field. We got the ball back with 4:20 to play and took 3:25 to score. If you score quicker you have some more freedom about the onside kick.... and regardless of whether you onside kick it you are makign the Bronocs run a couple of plays rather than just kneel and you can send your guys in hard after a strip or whatever it might be.

 

I do, however, accept that I more conservative than most on 4th down tries. I hated the call at 0-0 in game where you know field position is going to be key.

 

They took too long to get down the field, in part, because the defense had to use all their timeouts when they punted the ball to Denver. Imagine how much better off they would have been if they'd had two extra minutes and two timeouts to score that TD and get the ball back.

[DasNootz]

Orton sliding was preceded by Jackson running out of bounds without contact rather than squaring up and getting the first down on 2nd down.

 

As for Marrone - I don't understand why so man NFL coaches have trouble with these decisions.

[NoSaint]

I thought it was the right call in all honesty. If we didn't get it they kicked a field goal and the game was done. I thought that punt it away, play defense take your time outs and get the ball back was the right call. The problem was that we then took too long to get down the field. We got the ball back with 4:20 to play and took 3:25 to score. If you score quicker you have some more freedom about the onside kick.... and regardless of whether you onside kick it you are makign the Bronocs run a couple of plays rather than just kneel and you can send your guys in hard after a strip or whatever it might be.

 

I do, however, accept that I more conservative than most on 4th down tries. I hated the call at 0-0 in game where you know field position is going to be key.

 

part of the problem is that kicking there risks not just manning getting a first or two to finish the game, but best case burns your timeouts.

 

if we do kick it, it becomes a situation where you have to get an onside kick pretty much no matter what.

[Max997]

Orton sliding was preceded by Jackson running out of bounds without contact rather than squaring up and getting the first down on 2nd down.

 

As for Marrone - I don't understand why so man NFL coaches have trouble with these decisions.

 

its called coaching not to lose which unfortunately is how many NFL head coaches coach

 

aka the human ken doll syndrome

Edited December 8, 2014 by Max997

[plenzmd1]

In Marones eyes, he made the perfect call...got the ball back, scored a TD...stupid players just could not execute a 1 in 10 play.

 

After all, he did not want to take the game away from the players...they lost the game, not him

Edited December 8, 2014 by plenzmd1

[GunnerBill]

part of the problem is that kicking there risks not just manning getting a first or two to finish the game, but best case burns your timeouts.

 

if we do kick it, it becomes a situation where you have to get an onside kick pretty much no matter what.

 

If we don't get the 4th and 2 the game is finished. If you are asking me who I trust more - our offense to make a 4th and 2 or our defense to force a 3 and out even against Peyton Manning in a situation where Denver have basically committed to the run I'm taking our defense 100 times out of 100. That is because our defense is very good, bordering on elite and our offense is very bad bordering on pathetic. I'd take my chances with my defense every single time.

 

I get where you guys are coming from I really do, but I feel as though you are looking at it in a vacuum. Look at it with what you know about this team. I'd have made the same call Marrone did. Once we got it back and it was 4th and 16 and you have no time outs then there is no strategy at play you are doing the only possible thing.

[Dan]

The 4th down bot didn't kill Marrone for that one, but mostly because our chances of winning were very low either way:

 

http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play.html?gameid=12072014_BUF@DEN&playid=201412070073504

 

Personally, I think it was an indefensible move. The reasonable best-case scenario* is a quick 3-and-out followed by a punt, and that happened. Result: we got the ball back right where we started, but with about 2 minutes fewer on the clock. And guess what? We still needed to convert a 4th and 16 to advance the ball the next time! If we can pick up a 4th and 16, why can't we pick up a 4th and 2 from about the same spot?

 

*Obviously a muffed punt recovered by the Bills, or roughing the kicker penalty, or CJ Anderson fumble would've been better scenarios, but those are very unlikely and not something a coach can really plan on.

My problem with our coaches is all too often, I feel like I know more about the game than they do. And, in no universe or alternate reality should that be the case.

 

At that moment in the game, the coach required boldness. Either you go for it on 4th and 2 and risk losing the game if you don't make it. OR if you punt, stop them, get the ball back... you have to throw deep and score fast. Either way... you have to go against your conservative nature. A long slow drive, like they had may look good on the stat sheet, but it looses the game.... just like not converting the 4th and 2 would have done.

 

Bottom line: Marrone took the safe and conservative option when everyone watching knows we needed to take the shot there,

 

 

[Pondslider]

If there's that little confidence in the offense at that point and you need two scores then the game is basically over anyway and it doesn't really matter what happens if they don't convert the 4th and 2.

 

In the situation that played out it didn't matter either.

[GunnerBill]

OR if you punt, stop them, get the ball back... you have to throw deep and score fast. Either way... you have to go against your conservative nature. A long slow drive, like they had may look good on the stat sheet, but it looses the game.... just like not converting the 4th and 2 would have done.

 

That was my preferred option and if you score in like a minute and a half you make Denver run proper plays you send your D out trying to do anything to force a turnover and at worst if you can force another 3 and out you get 35 seconds (about what Flacco got to tie the Broncos a couple of years back in the play-offs) to throw a couple of hail Mary's.

 

If I'm trying to win a game with this Bills team I'm sending my D out to do it for me as often as possible. Play to your strengths.

[NoSaint]

 

 

If we don't get the 4th and 2 the game is finished. If you are asking me who I trust more - our offense to make a 4th and 2 or our defense to force a 3 and out even against Peyton Manning in a situation where Denver have basically committed to the run I'm taking our defense 100 times out of 100.

 

but you arent just saying a 3 and out vs a 4th and 2. its a 3 and out AND an onside kick because you are burning the timeouts.

 

like i said in the first post- not one im going to pitch a fit over as its probably pretty close stats wise, but my gut said it was probably a spot to go for it.

 

[GunnerBill]

but you arent just saying a 3 and out vs a 4th and 2. its a 3 and out AND an onside kick because you are burning the timeouts.

 

Depends how quick you score.... it at least gives you more options... as it was we were running the most obvious onside kick I've ever seen. and tried the "surprise" onside tactic of dribbling it up the middle.... God knows what old Danny Boy was thinking when he caled that one. You have to kick a hopper there straight at them and hope they mishandle it straight back to you... it is the only option.

[l< j]

could be worst they could hire Rex Ryan, now that would be a kick in the nads

 

And, ironically enough, Rex wonders what the downside to that is.

 

kj

[GunnerBill]

like i said in the first post- not one im going to pitch a fit over as its probably pretty close stats wise, but my gut said it was probably a spot to go for it.

 

Nor am I and I do understand where you guys are coming from but I've explained my thinking at the time. Not saying Marrone's was the same but that was honestly my thought process. As I say I accept I am conservative on 4th down calls generally, especially with teams with a very good defense and a very bad offense.

Edited December 8, 2014 by GunnerBill

[NoSaint]

 

 

Depends how quick you score.... it at least gives you more options... as it was we were running the most obvious onside kick I've ever seen. and tried the "surprise" onside tactic of dribbling it up the middle.... God knows what old Danny Boy was thinking when he caled that one. You have to kick a hopper there straight at them and hope they mishandle it straight back to you... it is the only option.

 

it obviously depends, but i think we can agree that it would take pretty spectacular play to score fast enough to have given denver two possessions there. even on the 3 and out with 2 timeouts they ate up 1:20. The TD drive started with 4:20 to go..... if we score in 60 seconds without any timeouts, then give it back, i suppose theres hope of a 3 and out that gets us the ball back under 2 minutes to go with no timeouts.

 

but thats A LOT of pressure on the D (and the o to score FAST twice with no timeouts).

 

again, not saying impossible, but as a coach, you almost have to assume you need an onside kick if you punt that.

Edited December 8, 2014 by NoSaint

[BmarvB]

I thought it was the right call in all honesty. If we didn't get it they kicked a field goal and the game was done. I thought that punt it away, play defense take your time outs and get the ball back was the right call. The problem was that we then took too long to get down the field. We got the ball back with 4:20 to play and took 3:25 to score. If you score quicker you have some more freedom about the onside kick.... and regardless of whether you onside kick it you are makign the Bronocs run a couple of plays rather than just kneel and you can send your guys in hard after a strip or whatever it might be.

 

I do, however, accept that I more conservative than most on 4th down tries. I hated the call at 0-0 in game where you know field position is going to be key.

 

I'm with you on that one. Punting and trusting the defense to get the stop further downfield was the correct call as opposed to risking another screwup and giving the Broncos a very short field to work with. They could have bought themselves more time by moving their butts downfield and lining up faster than what they did. Now the 4th down gamble in the 1st qtr at 0-0, THAT'S the one I also have an issue with! It's OK to have the balls to take a shot, but also have the brains to know when it's best to not do it.

And on the flip side, if both decisions succeed, he's a genius. But if they fail, he's an idiot.

[NoSaint]

 

 

I'm with you on that one. Punting and trusting the defense to get the stop further downfield was the correct call as opposed to risking another screwup and giving the Broncos a very short field to work with. They could have bought themselves more time by moving their butts downfield and lining up faster than what they did. Now the 4th down gamble in the 1st qtr at 0-0, THAT'S the one I also have an issue with! It's OK to have the balls to take a shot, but also have the brains to know when it's best to not do it.

And on the flip side, if both decisions succeed, he's a genius. But if they fail, he's an idiot.

 

the early one is textbook the call coaches should make 100% of the time, but old school guys never did so we feel like its wrong

[TheBrownBear]

Can't really fault Marrone here. If you miss it, the Broncos are guaranteed 3 points and the game is over with 6 minutes to play. By punting it away, we actually still had some sort of puncher's chance at the end. It's a tough call and easy to second guess, but in this situation you can argue that it actually worked out about as well as you could have hoped.

[Cash]

If we don't get the 4th and 2 the game is finished. If you are asking me who I trust more - our offense to make a 4th and 2 or our defense to force a 3 and out even against Peyton Manning in a situation where Denver have basically committed to the run I'm taking our defense 100 times out of 100. That is because our defense is very good, bordering on elite and our offense is very bad bordering on pathetic. I'd take my chances with my defense every single time.

 

I get where you guys are coming from I really do, but I feel as though you are looking at it in a vacuum. Look at it with what you know about this team. I'd have made the same call Marrone did. Once we got it back and it was 4th and 16 and you have no time outs then there is no strategy at play you are doing the only possible thing.

That was my preferred option and if you score in like a minute and a half you make Denver run proper plays you send your D out trying to do anything to force a turnover and at worst if you can force another 3 and out you get 35 seconds (about what Flacco got to tie the Broncos a couple of years back in the play-offs) to throw a couple of hail Mary's.

 

If I'm trying to win a game with this Bills team I'm sending my D out to do it for me as often as possible. Play to your strengths.

 

And I see where you're coming from, but to me, knowing this offense, I didn't see any way we could score twice in 4 minutes or so. Not that I thought it was very likely in 6 minutes or so, but the TD drive we eventually mounted was about the fastest I think this offense can actually manage. So I'm not looking at it in a vacuum at all. Put another way: I have no problem trusting the D to try to get a 3 and out, but I really feel like it was irrelevant. Knowing our offense, we didn't have time to score 2 TDs, even if the D got the quick 3 and out. And that's exactly how it played out.

 

Can't really fault Marrone here. If you miss it, the Broncos are guaranteed 3 points and the game is over with 6 minutes to play. By punting it away, we actually still had some sort of puncher's chance at the end. It's a tough call and easy to second guess, but in this situation you can argue that it actually worked out about as well as you could have hoped.

 

And that's my problem with the decision -- it went about as well as anyone could reasonably hope, and still resulted in us needing to recover an onsides kick with under a minute to go, then need to drive about 55 yards in about 50 seconds with no time outs. And that's after the 3 and out AND a 3.5 minute TD drive that included a 4th and 16 conversion. I don't think our offense can really do any better than that. I think we probably would've lost either way, but IMO, the better chance would've been to go for it the first time. Worst case, the game is over, which is what ultimately happened anyway. Best case, you execute that same 3.5 minute TD drive, score just before the 2 minute warning, then have the option of trying for the onsides or kicking deep. If you kick deep and get a 3 and out, you get the ball back at roughly your own 30 yard line with something like 1:45 to go and no time outs. That would still be a tall order for our offense, but a lot more manageable than what actually happened. (Which, again, was the best case scenario, not the most likely scenario.)

[GunnerBill]

the early one is textbook the call coaches should make 100% of the time, but old school guys never did so we feel like its wrong

 

No it is not. There is no call a coach should make 100% of the time. EVERY call should be made bearing in mind the opposition and the situation in the game and the strengths and weaknesses of your team. They talked all week about not giving Peyton Manning short fields, about making the Broncos one dimensional so that they could rush Manning and what they did with the score at 0-0 was take a shot with this not very good offense and give him a short field at 0-0 allowing the Broncos to get ahead and thereby giving them the go ahead to really start going run heavy. Punt the ball and play defense. We have a defense..... a darn good one. Give them the best chance possible to make plays for you. Only once in the whole game did the Broncos move it right down the field on us to score a Touchdown at the end of the 3rd / start of the 4th. They do this routinely to teams and they managed to do it to us just once. Make him go from the 20 not the 45. Awful call.

 

I know people will think I am being conservative and if we had Peyton Manning playing QB for us I might think differently. But our QBs suck and our defense is our best asset.

[l< j]

I think the call is somewhat debatable, though I lean strongly toward going for it on 4th and 2. As others have said, doubtful that you are going to get the ball 2x in that short time frame.

 

But more interesting to me is the dramatic change in Marrone's approach to 4th down. How many times has he gone for it on 4th down in the past few games in situations where earlier in the season he was punting without hesitation? And then defending the decisions in strong words at the podium after the game? He has changed how he approaches these critical situations. And for the better, for the most part.

 

On the one hand it's good that he saw the error of his ways. On the other, it's bad that he had to have that error pointed out to him.

 

kj

[NoSaint]

 

 

No it is not. There is no call a coach should make 100% of the time. EVERY call should be made bearing in mind the opposition and the situation in the game and the strengths and weaknesses of your team. They talked all week about not giving Peyton Manning short fields, about making the Broncos one dimensional so that they could rush Manning and what they did with the score at 0-0 was take a shot with this not very good offense and give him a short field at 0-0 allowing the Broncos to get ahead and thereby giving them the go ahead to really start going run heavy. Punt the ball and play defense. We have a defense..... a darn good one. Give them the best chance possible to make plays for you. Only once in the whole game did the Broncos move it right down the field on us to score a Touchdown at the end of the 3rd / start of the 4th. They do this routinely to teams and they managed to do it to us just once. Make him go from the 20 not the 45. Awful call.

 

I know people will think I am being conservative and if we had Peyton Manning playing QB for us I might think differently. But our QBs suck and our defense is our best asset.

 

one might argue that's a good reason to take some chances to help the offense across mid field and hope the D bails you out.

 

Here's the nyt feedback

 

http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play.html?gameid=12072014_BUF@DEN&playid=201412070073841

[Buffalo Beeeews]

This bothered me as well. He punts, then proceeds to burn up all his timeouts with 5 minutes left..then hangs his hat on an offense that, for the majority of the day, had taken forever to even cross midfield..and an onside kick from his "kickoff specialist"?!?! Marrone needs to grow a pair. That and get his head out of his arse and research when you ACTUALLY should and should not go for it on fourth down.

 

SMDH

[NoSaint]

This bothered me as well. He punts, then proceeds to burn up all his timeouts with 5 minutes left..then hangs his hat on an offense that, for the majority of the day, had taken forever to even cross midfield..and an onside kick from his "kickoff specialist"?!?! Marrone needs to grow a pair. That and get his head out of his arse and research when you ACTUALLY should and should not go for it on fourth down.

 

SMDH

 

really, by that point, it was an incredible long shot either way. converting the 4th is no gimme, and we still have a ton to go.

Edited December 8, 2014 by NoSaint

[TallskiWallski83]

I HATED the call to punt. Bill Belichick went for it on 4th and 2 on his own side of the field when he HAD THE LEAD against Manning. Punting in that situation is admitting defeat.

 

Also I disagreed with going for it on 4th and 6 in the first quarter. Our defense just held them to 0 points on Watkins fumble and yet he decides that playing field position is a poor strategy in that situation.

 

 

 

I swear Marrone does the opposite of what a good coach would do on all his 4th down decisions.

Edited December 8, 2014 by TallskiWallski83

[Cash]

No it is not. There is no call a coach should make 100% of the time. EVERY call should be made bearing in mind the opposition and the situation in the game and the strengths and weaknesses of your team. They talked all week about not giving Peyton Manning short fields, about making the Broncos one dimensional so that they could rush Manning and what they did with the score at 0-0 was take a shot with this not very good offense and give him a short field at 0-0 allowing the Broncos to get ahead and thereby giving them the go ahead to really start going run heavy. Punt the ball and play defense. We have a defense..... a darn good one. Give them the best chance possible to make plays for you. Only once in the whole game did the Broncos move it right down the field on us to score a Touchdown at the end of the 3rd / start of the 4th. They do this routinely to teams and they managed to do it to us just once. Make him go from the 20 not the 45. Awful call.

 

I know people will think I am being conservative and if we had Peyton Manning playing QB for us I might think differently. But our QBs suck and our defense is our best asset.

 

I still agree with Marrone and the 4th down bot on the 4th and 6 call in the first quarter, but I think punting is a lot more defensible there, and won't argue this one. In fact, fivethirtyeight recently put forth some evidence that punting to Peyton Manning can be a good idea:

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-sizing-up-the-inevitable-patriotspackers-super-bowl/

 

(Scroll to "How to beat Peyton Manning", although the charts might not make sense unless you read the first section as well.)

 

one might argue that's a good reason to take some chances to help the offense across mid field and hope the D bails you out.

 

Here's the nyt feedback

 

http://nyt4thdownbot...201412070073841

 

I think you meant this one?

 

http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play.html?gameid=12072014_BUF@DEN&playid=20141207007542

[NoSaint]

 

 

I still agree with Marrone and the 4th down bot on the 4th and 6 call in the first quarter, but I think punting is a lot more defensible there, and won't argue this one. In fact, fivethirtyeight recently put forth some evidence that punting to Peyton Manning can be a good idea:

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-sizing-up-the-inevitable-patriotspackers-super-bowl/

 

(Scroll to "How to beat Peyton Manning", although the charts might not make sense unless you read the first section as well.)

 

 

 

I think you meant this one?

 

http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play.html?gameid=12072014_BUF@DEN&playid=20141207007542

indeed. grabbed the wrong link.

 

punting inside the 40 is crazy.

[peterpan]

Obviously you don't punt there. Look what happened- we ran out of time. Duh!! We needed those time outs and minutes back and we punted them away

 

Down one score punt down two scores you don't have enough time to Punt. Very very simple

[Pondslider]

Obviously you don't punt there. Look what happened- we ran out of time. Duh!! We needed those time outs and minutes back and we punted them away

 

Down one score punt down two scores you don't have enough time to Punt. Very very simple

 

But if they had gone for it on 4th and 2 and not made it then they would have lost slightly sooner and I would have had to accept it and go back to interacting with my horrible family.

[2003Contenders]

If we don't get the 4th and 2 the game is finished. If you are asking me who I trust more - our offense to make a 4th and 2 or our defense to force a 3 and out even against Peyton Manning in a situation where Denver have basically committed to the run I'm taking our defense 100 times out of 100. That is because our defense is very good, bordering on elite and our offense is very bad bordering on pathetic. I'd take my chances with my defense every single time.

 

I get where you guys are coming from I really do, but I feel as though you are looking at it in a vacuum. Look at it with what you know about this team. I'd have made the same call Marrone did. Once we got it back and it was 4th and 16 and you have no time outs then there is no strategy at play you are doing the only possible thing.

 

Bingo! I couldn't have said it better myself. I honestly thought the coaching staff put the players in a pretty good position to upset the heavily favored Broncos and the players (with some hindrance from the officials) failed to come through. Hopefully Orton understands that he is playing for the team's season, his job and likely his career next week against the Packers. I hope the coaches understand this as well -- and are willing to make the quick switch to Manuel in the event that Orton once again fails.