Marrone Hackett Seal Their Fate

[Deranged Rhino]

Reality: Hogan had a Red Zone TD last week, and a lot of other good plays today.

 

You're embarrassing yourself now. Mike Williams has done it for longer and better. Which Denver knows. When he's in the game, defenses guard him differently. He influences the way the D plays far more than Hogan does at this juncture (or ever will).

[Pondslider]

Um, what was the final score, and, how many TDs did we have to obtain to reach that final score?

 

This is ridiculous, you're assuming everything good, and ignoring the fact that any small thing, like a bad snap, or a open WR dropping/fumbling the ball(um do we remember last year, similar situation? Do the words Stevie Johnson ring a bell?), completely F's us.

 

I understand the temptation to go for it. But, I also win more than I lose at poker. It's called: managing temptation.

 

The Bills were down 24-10 and scored one TD to reach the final score. Up to the point in they game we are talking about they had only scored 1 (one) TD the entire rest of the game. They lost because they were clearly not capable of scoring two TDs in the final 4 minutes to tie the game.

 

A bad snap could have occurred on the punt. The Broncos could have returned it into Buffalo territory. The Broncos could have moved the ball and got enough 1st downs to end the game without the offense touching the ball again. The Bills could have fumbled the punt return (remember Leodis McKelvin?)

 

I'm not assuming everything good. I'm saying making the 4th and 2 gives them a better chance to win and if they miss it they lose the game, but they lost the the game punting the ball, so what's the difference?

 

You are assuming that it's wrong to go for it on 4th and 2 from the 22 because of the chance that they don't make it, but they made a 4th and 16 from the 22 a few minutes later which you seemingly have no problem with.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Pondslider

[Webster Guy]

I thought Hackett called a really good game. Execution was lacking.

agree. Hackett's best game of the year by far. Loved Marrone going for the 4th down early, he needs to keep pushing his team and showing faith in them.

 

Coaching was not our problem today. i normally despise Hackett but he deserves credit for this one.

[OCinBuffalo]

The Bills were down 24-10 and scored one TD to reach the final score. Up to the point in they game we are talking about they had only scored 1 (one) TD the entire rest of the game. They lost because they were clearly not capable of scoring two TDs in the final 4 minutes to tie the game.

 

A bad snap could have occurred on the punt. The Broncos could have returned it into Buffalo territory. The Broncos could have moved the ball and got enough 1st downs to end the game without the offense touching the ball again. The Bills could have fumbled the punt return (remember Leodis McKelvin?)

 

I'm not assuming everything good. I'm saying making the 4th and 2 gives them a better chance to win and if they miss it they lose the game, but they lost the the game punting the ball, so what's the difference?

 

You are assuming that it's wrong to go for it on 4th and 2 from the 22 because of the chance that they don't make it, but they made a 4th and 16 from the 22 a few minutes later which you seemingly have no problem with.

No. Let's put this in Princess Bride terms. (In my job, I find that when statistics/math/facts/logic/left brain stuff doesn't reach people, going in the completely opposite direction usually works.)

 

If we punt it, we are mostly dead. "There's a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive." If we go for it and make it, there's a chance we won't be dead, but, if we go for it and don't make it, we're all dead. "With all dead, well, with all dead there's usually only one thing you can do, go through the pockets and look for loose change."

 

The point, put simply is: no matter what, we didn't want to put ourselves in an "all dead" position.

Edited December 8, 2014 by OCinBuffalo

[PolishDave]

agree. Hackett's best game of the year by far. Loved Marrone going for the 4th down early, he needs to keep pushing his team and showing faith in them.

 

Coaching was not our problem today. i normally despise Hackett but he deserves credit for this one.

If you like NOT scoring touchdowns for 3 + quarters.

[Big C]

If you like NOT scoring touchdowns for 3 + quarters.

 

So Hackett called an interception in the endzone?

[Pondslider]

No. Let's put this in Princess Bride terms. (In my job, I find that when statistics/math/facts/logic/left brain stuff doesn't reach people, going in the completely opposite direction usually works.)

 

If we punt it, we are mostly dead. "There's a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive." If we go for it and make it, there's a chance we won't be dead, but, if we go for it and don't make it, we're all dead. "With all dead, well, with all dead there's usually only one thing you can do, go through the pockets and look for loose change."

 

The point, put simply is: no matter what, we didn't want to put ourselves in an "all dead" position.

 

 

I guess it's the difference between trying to win and trying not to lose. By trying not to lose they held on a little longer than they might have, but in the end they still lost. I was hoping they'd try to win.

 

Also, spare me the condescension. You have not proven anything with fact other than, yes, if they hadn't made the 4th and 2 they would have lost. If they hadn't made the 4th and 16 they would have lost too. They scored a TD with 55 seconds left and left themselves with no other option but an onside kick which is a low percent desperation play and they lost.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Pondslider

[OCinBuffalo]

You're embarrassing yourself now. Mike Williams has done it for longer and better. Which Denver knows. When he's in the game, defenses guard him differently. He influences the way the D plays far more than Hogan does at this juncture (or ever will).

How exactly? I'm not the one going to practice every day and coaching this team. If I was, I'd have the exact answer as to why Williams is sitting and Hogan is playing, and I'd give it to you. (If we had competent media here, we'd have known this answer long ago, or, they are deliberately covering something up, because either they want continued access to the team and asking that question shuts the door?, or, the best thing to do for everyone involved is to leave this one alone?, or, perhaps they don't want to embarrass Williams? Who knows?)

 

But, here's the thing: you aren't coaching the team either. You have no idea what the actual plays are, and who is executing them the best in practice/games. Nobody does, and unless we obtain objective evidence(um, like a playbook, the playcall, and an all 22 account), we never will.

 

Everything else, is and always will be, by definition, conjecture.

 

I guess it's the difference between trying to win and trying not to lose. By trying not to lose they held on a little longer than they might have, but in the end they still lost. I was hoping they'd try to win.

I don't see how putting yourself in an all or nothing position, with odds against....automatically = not trying to win.

Edited December 8, 2014 by OCinBuffalo

[RyanC883]

I can't say the Defense is great. Front four got NO pressure, I don't see one sack in the stat column against one of the greatest statues at QB in NFL history. DB's lack a lot to be desired as seen this season. Get Kiko back and the LB's are really solid.

 

We are a good defense, but far from Great.

 

That said, see my post on season record. I hope Pegula fires EVERYONE.

 

you do realize that Manning is one of the most difficult QB's in the NFL to sack? 2.8 second average from snap to throw. The defense played GREAT in holding Manning to one of his worse passing games all year. Your also ignoring the 2 INT's.

[Deranged Rhino]

How exactly?

 

Any statement that Chris Hogan is a bigger threat in the red zone than Mike Williams is embarrassing if you're a knowledgeable fan -- which I know you are.

 

It doesn't matter what scheme you're running or who your QB is, Williams has a proven track record of scoring in the red zone. It's inarguable.

[OCinBuffalo]

Now that I think about it, Williams not playing could be something as stupid simple as: he can't get on the same page with Orton, but Hogan can, and Orton told the coaches he can't play with Williams.

 

Now what the F are any of the coaches supposed do? Play Williams because....?

 

EDIT: see, I can do the conjecture thing too!

Edited December 8, 2014 by OCinBuffalo

[Big C]

Williams is a good red zone target, no doubt. But Hogan has proven his worth too. We've seen little guys like Edelman and Welker do a lot of damage in the redzone too. TY Hilton the burner got a crucial redzone TD today. I think having another big, reliable target would be nice, but are we really choosing between the two?

Edited December 8, 2014 by Big C

[Kelly the Dog]

Now that I think about it, Williams not playing could be something as stupid simple as: he can't get on the same page with Orton, but Hogan can, and Orton told the coaches he can't play with Williams.

 

Now what the F are any of the coaches supposed do? Play Williams because....?

He's better?

[BuffaninATL]

It pains me to no end to read Orton backers on this page. He is brutal. He missed so many wide open receivers today, most on over throws. And the fetal thing he does where he turns his back and hunches over preparing to be hit....FREAKING PANZY. A complete wasted season with him behind center. We don't have a thing to show for it....NOTHING. UGGG I honestly believe Tuel could have had a comparable season with this defense. I won't bring up the other guy because apparently he is inaccurate?!

 

what was almost worse were Orton's comments after the game- when asked about the slide, he mentioned he should have tried to throw the ball to gain the 1st down.....no mention of him saying he should have manned up and found a way to gain the extra yard. Total cop-out.

[Deranged Rhino]

He's better?

 

:lol:

 

Don't forget this tangent started when OC asked for a name to prove that a GM can only do so much... but of course he's OC'd it into an entirely different discussion.

[OCinBuffalo]

He's better?

But that's totally subjective, and with 0 frame of reference vis a vis the playbook, calls, QB's preferences, etc.

 

That's all I'm saying: we can't KNOW the answer here, until somebody walks up to Marrone and asks him, on the record, why Williams has been benched in favor of Hogan. No one has asked that question.

 

IF Jerry Sullivan was half the provocateur/hard hitting columnist he wished he was, he'd have asked that question 10 weeks ago.

[K-9]

I can't say the Defense is great. Front four got NO pressure, I don't see one sack in the stat column against one of the greatest statues at QB in NFL history. DB's lack a lot to be desired as seen this season. Get Kiko back and the LB's are really solid.

 

We are a good defense, but far from Great.

 

That said, see my post on season record. I hope Pegula fires EVERYONE.

 

You didn't watch the game and/or you don't have insight into why Manning has been sacked 13 times all year. Defense didn't have to put Manning on his ass to take away major parts of his offense today. Their entire game plan was to get the ball out fast and on the few occasions they went long, he was picked off twice. And the underneath stuff was well prepared for by Scwhartz; the best our LBs have done all year on shallow crosses.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[TheFunPolice]

Don't forget that a MUCH more successful coach in Harbaugh is getting run out of SF

 

There was real friction between Marrone and the front office

[Deranged Rhino]

But that's totally subjective, and with 0 frame of reference vis a vis the playbook, calls, QB's preferences, etc.

 

Only because you refuse to admit stats and history are relevant to that discussion. Any sane person can clearly see that Williams is better than Hogan. The only one speculating is you -- you're having to do mental gymnastics to invent scenarios in which Hogan might be better.

[FluffHead]

@PrescottRossi: Doug Marrone rolls his eyes at @joebuscaglia after being asked about punting on 4th & 2 in the 4th quarter down 14. https://t.co/nAWEAB71pM

[Pondslider]

I don't see how putting yourself in an all or nothing position, with odds against....automatically = not trying to win.

 

 

Also how are the odds against? According to this site http://www.sportsone...rticle/62665328 from 2010-2013 teams had a 62.7% chance of making 4th and short. It's slightly dated I guess, but those odds are hardly against them and I'll take that even with this coaching staff over giving the ball back to the other team, knowing you will have to spend your timeouts and in the best case scenario get the ball back roughly where you just were with less time and no timeouts and lowering your chance to win. Especially when you need two scores in a short amount of time as the Bills did.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Pondslider

[26CornerBlitz]

Now that I think about it, Williams not playing could be something as stupid simple as: he can't get on the same page with Orton, but Hogan can, and Orton told the coaches he can't play with Williams.

 

Now what the F are any of the coaches supposed do? Play Williams because....?

 

EDIT: see, I can do the conjecture thing too!

 

No one is on the same page as Orton, particularly not Kyle Orton. Meow.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

But that's totally subjective, and with 0 frame of reference vis a vis the playbook, calls, QB's preferences, etc.

 

That's all I'm saying: we can't KNOW the answer here, until somebody walks up to Marrone and asks him, on the record, why Williams has been benched in favor of Hogan. No one has asked that question.

 

IF Jerry Sullivan was half the provocateur/hard hitting columnist he wished he was, he'd have asked that question 10 weeks ago.

That's like saying we don't know Antonio Gates is better than Lee Smith. We know he is because for several years in a row he has proven it on the field in real NFL games on relatively poor teams with relatively poor quarterbacking by doing the same thing over and over and over, out positioning and out muscling and out jumping defensive backs on jump ball types of throws, often in the endzone.

[Deranged Rhino]

That's like saying we don't know Antonio Gates is better than Lee Smith. We know he is because for several years in a row he has proven it on the field in real NFL games on relatively poor teams with relatively poor quarterbacking by doing the same thing over and over and over, out positioning and out muscling and out jumping defensive backs on jump ball types of throws, often in the endzone.

 

But how do you know unless you're there in practice, Kelly? HOW DO YOU KNOW?!

[Kelly the Dog]

 

 

You didn't watch the game and/or you don't have insight into why Manning has been sacked 13 times all year. Defense didn't have to put Manning on his ass to take away major parts of his offense today. Their entire game plan was to get the ball out fast and on the few occasions they went long, he was picked off twice. And the underneath stuff was well prepared for by Scwhartz; the best our LBs have done all year on shallow crosses.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Yup. They were amazing. Even that first one to Welker, Aaron Williams was there and should have intercepted or knocked it down he just took a bad angle at the last moment for who knows what reason. The defense was very, very good without sacks.

[Fan in Chicago]

Also how are the odds against? According to this site http://www.sportsone...rticle/62665328 from 2010-2013 teams had a 62.7% chance of making 4th and short. It's slightly dated I guess, but those odds are hardly against them and I'll take that even with this coaching staff over giving the ball back to the other team, knowing you will have to spend your timeouts and in the best case scenario get the ball back roughly where you just were with less time and no timeouts and lowering your chance to win. Especially when you need two scores in a short amount of time as the Bills did.

 

That is a 37.3% chance of ending the game right then and there. Terrible odds

[OCinBuffalo]

:lol:

 

Don't forget this tangent started when OC asked for a name to prove that a GM can only do so much... but of course he's OC'd it into an entirely different discussion.

Yeah, I asked for "names" not "name".

 

So, your point that Marrone is sitting "players" he shouldn't be, is actually "player", now isn't it?

 

You pretend like there was this whole string of Pysk's, and Grigerenko's and Armia's sitting down on Buffalo's bench, while we are playing Benoit, McCormack, and Flynn, and if the coach was only smarter, we'd be winning every game because he'd be playing the right "players".

 

Sorry, but, the only tangent that's going on here is yours: there's no way in hell Marrone should be fired because one player isn't playing(and even that is questionable)....when the other starting ~30, on all 3 units, are doing more than any other Bills units have in 10 years.

 

Try again. You raised this entire line of discussion. Now you want to call it a tangent? Fine. But it's Greggy's Tangent, not mine, and all you have is Mike Williams.

Edited December 8, 2014 by OCinBuffalo

[Pondslider]

That is a 37.3% chance of ending the game right then and there. Terrible odds

 

Better odds than having to make an onside kick (.3% according to this http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/onside-kickoff-success/2014/) which is what you're counting on when you punt the ball with 5 minutes left down two TDs.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

Yeah, I asked for "names" not "name".

 

So, your point that Marrone is sitting "players" he shouldn't be, is actually "player", now it's it?

 

You pretend like there was this whole string of Pysk's, and Grigerenko's and Armia's sitting down on Buffalo's bench, while we are playing Benoit, McCormack, and Flynn, and if the coach was only smarter, we'd be winning every game because he'd be playing the right "players".

 

Sorry, but, the only tangent that's going on here is yours: there's no way in hell Marrone should be fired because one player isn't playing(and even that is questionable)....when the other starting ~30, on all 3 units, are doing more than any other Bills units have in 10 years.

 

Try again. You raised this entire line of discussion. Now you want to call it a tangent? Fine. But it's Greggy's Tangent, not mine, and all you have is Mike Williams.

[Deranged Rhino]

Sorry, but, the only tangent that's going on here is yours: there's no way in hell Marrone should be fired because one player isn't playing(and even that is questionable)....when the other starting ~30, on all 3 units, are doing more than any other Bills units have in 10 years.

 

Show me where I ever said any of this. Once again you're arguing against yourself. And somehow, losing.

[The Big Cat]

Look at what a kitty McCoy and Reich are punting from midfield down 9 with 6 minutes to go.

 

Only Marrone does it though.

[Fan in Chicago]

Better odds than having to make an onside kick (.3% according to this http://www.sportingc...f-success/2014/) which is what you're counting on when you punt the ball with 5 minutes left down two TDs.

 

 

The on side kick would only happen if we scored a TD. Down 2 TDs was not the time for that desperation play. We still could get one possession to score the first of 2 required TDs. Based on how the offense played most of the game, did anyone have the required confidence that we would get those yards?

[TheFunPolice]

Look at what a kitty McCoy and Reich are punting from midfield down 9 with 6 minutes to go.

 

Only Marrone does it though.

 

It is still weak and its McCoy

 

It is 100% kniwing youre probably beaten and not wanting to lose worse

[The Big Cat]

 

 

 

The on side kick would only happen if we scored a TD. Down 2 TDs was not the time for that desperation play. We still could get one possession to score the first of 2 required TDs. Based on how the offense played most of the game, did anyone have the required confidence that we would get those yards?

 

Acknowledging how putrid the offense has been then citing league median statistics. It just keeps getting better with these guys!

[OCinBuffalo]

By the way, where are all the "Can't believe Urbik was on the bench for 7 weeks" people?

 

That guy absolutely sucked today.

 

Was Marrone keeping Urbik on the bench a bad coaching decision given today's "effort"?

 

Yeah, there's another "name" for GreggyT's "The Quest for Guys Marrone Should Be Playing": Urbik. We should fire Marrone because he didn't play Urbik, because not playing Urbik is yet another indication that "Marrone is in over his head". (Want more silly arguments from 7+ weeks ago? Many posters on the main board are lucky I only have a database of posts for PPP. Perhaps I'll begin one for here...)

 

As I said, pages ago: this thread is emprically obtuse.

[Kelly the Dog]

Look at what a kitty McCoy and Reich are punting from midfield down 9 with 6 minutes to go.

 

Only Marrone does it though.

One thing that needs to be discussed but rarely is here is that from the 50 yard line to the 35 yard line every single yard makes the decision a different one. Punting from midfield versus punting from the 45 versus punting from the 42 versus punting from the 40 are all very different decisions. And each one has ten elements to it, not just yard line and time left.

[Pondslider]

The on side kick would only happen if we scored a TD. Down 2 TDs was not the time for that desperation play. We still could get one possession to score the first of 2 required TDs. Based on how the offense played most of the game, did anyone have the required confidence that we would get those yards?

If down 2 TDs with 5 minutes to go in a game you pretty much know you need to win to have any real chance at the playoffs is not the time for a desperation play then when is the time?

[Kelly the Dog]

By the way, where are all the "Can't believe Urbik was on the bench for 7 weeks" people?

 

That guy absolutely sucked today.

 

Was Marrone keeping Urbik on the bench a bad coaching decision given today's "effort"?

 

Yeah, there's another "name" for GreggyT's "The Quest for Guys Marrone Should Be Playing": Urbik. We should fire Marrone because he didn't play Urbik, because not playing Urbik is yet another indication that "Marrone is in over his head". (Want more silly arguments from 7+ weeks ago? Many posters on the main board are lucky I only have a database of posts for PPP. Perhaps I'll begin one for here...)

 

As I said, pages ago: this thread is emprically obtuse.

That's flat wrong. Orton had a lot of time on a lot of passes. We had some decent runs up the middle. Urbik looked awful on that one sack they showed over and over.

[boyst]

Look at what a kitty McCoy and Reich are punting from midfield down 9 with 6 minutes to go.

 

Only Marrone does it though.

Punting at midfield is different then from your own end zone.

 

Anyway, their staff is on the same bus ours is, headed out of town.

 

If the Chargers had real fans then I would feel sorry for them because they are a good team that's been bungled a lot, but also overachieved, too. So, I guess it could be a wash.

[Fan in Chicago]

That's flat wrong. Orton had a lot of time on a lot of passes. We had some decent runs up the middle. Urbik looked awful on that one sack they showed over and over.

 

Agree. Orton played scared must of the game. For the first three quarters, it seems like he wasn't looking past 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. He looked and then went to the side throws. There was no vertical passing game till the fourth Q

Edited December 8, 2014 by Fan in Chicago