Orton's accuracy

[GG]

Marrone has been given credit for saving the season by benching EJ, but in fact it was just another dumb mistake.

With EJ still in, we might miss the playoffs, but see some development.

With Orton in, we might miss the playoffs, but see no development from our first round pick, whom Whaley sees as our future QB.

 

Just another moronic move by the dumbest coach to ever be hired in BLO.

 

Let's ignore the WR corps mutiny that was building with EJ at the helm. Marrone had no choice but to bench EJ.

[Maddog69]

 

 

Thing is EJ lost games way before the 4th quarter. I'm just not a fan of overreacting to a game or a possession. EJ's accuracy is an oxymoron, lets face it the guy doesn't have any.

Did you know that EJ and Kyle have almost exactly the same career completion percentage? (KO 59.1/EJ 58.6). EJ had some bad games before getting benched but he's not as horribly accurate as the haters keep saying. Orton has had 10 years to improve his accuracy and hasn't done it yet so many of you believe he is great. EJ has started 14 games and those same people are convinced he can never improve. I just don't get the Orton love and EJ hate. Here's my honest assessment:

As of today, Orton is a marginally better pocket passer than EJ is. Orton has Zero mobility and is not a threat to run. He has reached his peak. He is a journeyman backup.

 

EJ - is a young QB who has mobility, has had some success and has lead some game winning drives. He lacks experience and confidence. I believe he has upside.

 

I like having both QBs on the roster. My problem is the coaches. I don't have any faith in Marrone/Hackett to develop EJ.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

How'd you get to that correlation? I can see a tire arm but throwing a football is completely different to an arm than tossing footballs. Has a qb ever had Tommy johns?

 

It's more about fatigue than anything else. A 45-50 throw day then throw in getting knocked to the ground a few times....it's taken for granted because most QB's are athletes but Orton is clearly not in that class right now. There is a threshold at which point throwers and shooters lose their accuracy and I think Orton crossed it. For all the talk of the successful 30-something aged QB's in the league take a look at the muscle on those guys versus Orton. Strength and control go hand-in-hand. Has a QB ever had Tommy John surgery? I believe so but Tommy John is more about torque on the elbow from throwing breaking pitches. QB's tend to have shoulder injuries from wear and tear, though Kelly had a chronic bursa sac problem in his elbow his last 4-5 years.

[Ted William's frozen head]

Marrone was trying to save his job by playing Orton. Seems like players were frustrated with EJ. Marrone felt Orton gave him the best chance to get to a winning record and keep his job for another year. I don't blame him for making it. The question is, should Russ and Whalley demanded that he continue to develop EJ? I say no. Marrone should have authority to decide who plays and control his own fate. From the beginning, I understood the move but disagreed with it. It seems like a wasted year for a first Rd pick. But maybe the benching was hood for EJ. Maybe he comes back in with more fire when he gets his next chance. Who knows.

 

 

 

I would not say this was a Strength. He was better than EJ but still towards the bottom of the league in red zone efficiency.

Excluding Sunday's game, we were 8 of 16 in the redzone with KO. 50% would be tied for 25th in the league. Not really a strength although the Orton lovers always wrongly say it is.

With EJ, the Bills would frequently be in 3rd, and long, and EJ would throw a completion-for a two yard gain. EJ has taken time outs, and pulled the same crap when he came back to the line of scrimmage, and made his next attempt.

Enough already.

[Big Gun]

Its simple as this. I'm a dick to people who trash me for my posts when dozens of others say the same damn thing.

 

Lay of the BS and so will I.

 

keep it up rookie.

you need to research the word "light year"

 

We have a saying here .... never mind. I'll be the bigger man and let it go.

 

oh screw it .....

 

You're an Idiot for bringing up EJ when I did not

 

Rookie???.... oh you have no idea.

[Orton's Arm]

Simply not true. In every stat I can find, he is marginally better. QBR, completion percentage, redzone efficiency. Etc. KO is a few percentage points above EJ. That's 2-3 plays a game. Let's not pretend Orton is Johnny Unitas. He isn't. But you Orton nuthuggers won't admit it. Orton is not "the long term answer" at QB. Orton is mediocre. And Orton blew it badly on Sunday. He is the reason the Bills did not win the game. He's 3-2 as the starter (and would be 2-3 if Detroit would have had a decent kicker). My frustration is how so many people on this board cruicify EJ for exactly this type of game but find every possible excuse for the 10yr veteran.

 

> In every stat I can find, he is marginally better.

 

I can help solve that problem.

 

> completion percentage

 

The problem with completion percentage is that it can easily be inflated by dumping the ball off short. Trent Edwards has a career completion percentage of over 60%.

 

> KO is a few percentage points above EJ.

 

Orton is much better than Manuel, at least as measured by air yards per attempt.

 

Over 80% of Manuel's passes have been to targets less than 10 yards away. Not 10 yards away from the line of scrimmage. 10 yards away from EJ personally. And it's not like he was throwing to guys running horizontal crossing routes or anything. The overwhelming majority of those passes were to stationary targets. If you get a random group of guys together and start throwing the football around, and if the guys are reasonably decent at throwing, it will soon be discovered that throwing 10 yard passes to stationary targets is boring. Too easy. But that's the only thing Manuel has been doing, except for a few throws here and there. Those few throws here and there are inaccurate far more often than not.

 

Orton attempts a far higher percentage of difficult throws than Manuel attempts. Orton isn't accurate 100% of the time. But his accuracy is worlds ahead of Manuel's.

 

For the 2014 season, Manuel's air yards per attempt was 2.13. That was the worst average of any starting quarterback. The second-worst was Geno Smith, at 2.63. Even after his uninspiring showing against the Chiefs and their #1 pass defense, Orton's air yards per attempt is still 3.63--much better than Manuel's 2.13.

 

Why do many of Manuel's other stats look somewhat comparable to Orton's? Most statistical measures of a quarterback's performance lump air yards together with yards after the catch (YAC). This benefits Manuel the most. Two thirds of Manuel's total passing yardage came from YAC. That's a higher percentage than any other starting quarterback in 2014. It's not like Manuel was doing a spectacular job of hitting guys in perfect stride; setting them up for excellent YAC. No. He was making easy, boring throws to stationary targets less than 10 yards away, then watching as guys like Watkins or Fred Jackson generated YAC on their own.

 

As a pure passer, EJ Manuel was the least productive starting quarterback in the NFL. And it wasn't even close. He had some positive attributes which helped offset that. He didn't turn the ball over a lot or take many sacks. That's one of the benefits to almost always going with your dump-off option. Nevertheless, Manuel has a long way to go before he can be considered a credible backup quarterback. He has not attained, and probably never will attain, the level of Trent Edwards or JP Losman--neither of whom are on NFL rosters.

Edited November 12, 2014 by Orton's Arm

[Casey D]

So Matthew Fairburn has a story as to why Hackett called the plays he did with the ball at the KC 15 late in the game. KC stacked the box, daring the Bills to throw. So Hackett did, and got two wide open looks that Orton missed on the throw. So does that make Hackett "criminally" inept? Should he have run anyway? Would the Hackett haters say he was an idiot for running with a stacked box, too conservative just like the Jets game? Bueller ? Anyone?

Edited November 12, 2014 by Casey D

[26CornerBlitz]

Pick a thread, any thread.

[Casey D]

Pick a thread, any thread.

Given the story and the new insight, I felt this warranted a fresh look.

[Maury Ballstein]

Fireorton

[Rivermont Mike]

#fireeveryone

[dave mcbride]

It's more about fatigue than anything else. A 45-50 throw day then throw in getting knocked to the ground a few times....it's taken for granted because most QB's are athletes but Orton is clearly not in that class right now. There is a threshold at which point throwers and shooters lose their accuracy and I think Orton crossed it. For all the talk of the successful 30-something aged QB's in the league take a look at the muscle on those guys versus Orton. Strength and control go hand-in-hand. Has a QB ever had Tommy John surgery? I believe so but Tommy John is more about torque on the elbow from throwing breaking pitches. QB's tend to have shoulder injuries from wear and tear, though Kelly had a chronic bursa sac problem in his elbow his last 4-5 years.

Starting Pitchers always say that their accuracy goes late in games not because of fatigue in their arms, but their legs from all of the throws. That may well have happened on Sunday. You and I both know he's usually a lot more accurate than that. It's too bad because early on (after one and a half quarters) I told my wife that this was the most accurate I had ever seen him. His first 12-15 passes or so were on target (including the 2 deliberate - and smart - throwaways), but there were 5 (!) bad drops. Te receiving corps let him down early on.

Edited November 12, 2014 by dave mcbride

[KD in CA]

Come on, you were just looking for an excuse to use 'penultimate' in a sentence.

Edited November 12, 2014 by KD in CT

[ALF]

A lot of good QB's have a bad day, hope that's all it was , time will tell.

[Dirtbag]

So does that make Hackett "criminally" inept?

if the laminated game plan stuffed in the crotch fits, you must acquit!

[Beerball]

Given the story and the new insight, I felt this warranted a fresh look.

So, you're saying that Orton is inaccurate?

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Rookie???.... oh you have no idea.

so you have been banned for being what?

[Mango]

 

 

Let's ignore the WR corps mutiny that was building with EJ at the helm. Marrone had no choice but to bench EJ.

 

My getting into the EJ v. Orton debate. Interesting you mention the WR's. There was a point where Orton missed a throw to Woods and he threw a shite fit after the pass. I immediately thought "uh oh" we won't get going now. Which actually kind of happened. Not hating on Woods at all, but our WR corps isn't doing any favors to anybody at points.

 

I like the idea of the pitch count. Not sure what it correlates to in regards to baseball, but makes enough sense to me to reason my way through it. What I think we saw from Orton was more akin to the type of QB he actually is. If anything his first few games are a statistical anomaly to his career numbers. Number of throws for a retired guy only makes it worse.

[Agent 91]

Simply not true. In every stat I can find, he is marginally better. QBR, completion percentage, redzone efficiency. Etc. KO is a few percentage points above EJ. That's 2-3 plays a game. Let's not pretend Orton is Johnny Unitas. He isn't. But you Orton nuthuggers won't admit it. Orton is not "the long term answer" at QB. Orton is mediocre. And Orton blew it badly on Sunday. He is the reason the Bills did not win the game. He's 3-2 as the starter (and would be 2-3 if Detroit would have had a decent kicker). My frustration is how so many people on this board cruicify EJ for exactly this type of game but find every possible excuse for the 10yr veteran.

 

You forgot one VERY IMPORTANT PIECE. The o line and run game WAS WORKING for the first time this year. Everything people have complained about since forever this regime WORKED! and the qb didnt. I find it funny EJ got benched after playing JJ Watt and getting hit what was it? 11 times? Im all for Orton playing.... let me rephrase... Was all for Orton playing as long as we had a good shot at the playoffs. But when that window closes lets not worry. A new coach likes his own "guy" at qb. So I have faith that the next coach wont have the IQ of a peanut and William a vision of the offense he wants to run and get guys here that can execute. I know he better not stray far from the pettine schwartz style defenses. They work. EJ was never going to work in buffalo under Marrone. He is more along the lines of cam newton backup material. The boy can run. And he has an arm. Lets see if he could work in that style o. Only problem the line is swiss cheese. Who is a line guru. Can some on tell me if this line is built more for zone blocking or man blocking. Is it even salvageable. Im ranting. But take from this post what you want.

[K-9]

So Matthew Fairburn has a story as to why Hackett called the plays he did with the ball at the KC 15 late in the game. KC stacked the box, daring the Bills to throw. So Hackett did, and got two wide open looks that Orton missed on the throw. So does that make Hackett "criminally" inept? Should he have run anyway? Would the Hackett haters say he was an idiot for running with a stacked box, too conservative just like the Jets game? Bueller ? Anyone?

 

I suspected that Hackett/Marrone didn't like our matchup against KC's short yardage run defense and they game-planned for that. Then yesterday on WGR in the morning one of the radio guys said he had actually heard that from the Bills. I'm not surprised. I could criticize Hackett more if his schemes didn't allow for receivers getting open, but they were consistently, as those wide open looks showed in that particular series.

 

It's easy to say anything in retrospect about why we should have run the ball. But if Orton makes a play down there, nobody is questioning that afterwards.

 

GO BILLS!!!