NFL Rewind ReWatch - Counting EJ Unforced Errors

[enlightener]

its tie to admit Ej does sorta suck, ive held off til now, he just doesn't get it, Ya Hackett is not helping him, the oline isn't "great" but if they were wed be fooled another season thinking EJ is "maybe" a starting QB. Its easy to see now after 14 games hes just a tad better than losman was, not as good as fitz was and no where near as good as half the starters in the league. I thought we spent pick 16 on someone "good" not a barely average QB, time for ORTON.

 

Also Hackett has the dumbest routes built into his plays, the last int was on him, middle of the field was wide open and we had no outlet or wr crossing. This is common, EJ has few options but to go deep or dump it.

[GG]

The Bills OL isn't horrible. Read some of the other analyses of their play - Marrone assembled this group for pass protection. Hackett is calling a conservative game plan to minimize EJ's decision making. On many plays, there are open receivers. The job of an effective QB is to take advantage of that. More often than not, EJ has not taken advantage of that, which emboldens defenses to be even more aggressive.

 

If we go further down memory lane, this is exactly what happened to Todd Collins. It was clear in his first year of starting that he would be a back up at best.

[Prickly Pete]

Just a thought:

 

Is anyone considering the nine hits he took, in addition to the sacks, in addition to the two 15 yard knee shots he took (the second of which should have gotten Watt ejected)?

 

I'm not making excuses for the guy, but in light of all the above, it's not hard to wonder what might have happened to what was left of his already-questionable accuracy.

 

Yeah, I think the O-line was as bad as EJM these last 2 games. The rush definitely got into his head pretty quickly against the Texans. That is something he has to improve, but it's a little different that just being incompetent.

[Perk71]

Thanks ... glad to hear the post was appreciated. I'll do my best to try and post more stuff like this if people find it useful.

 

Keep up the good work...appreciate it!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

That's about how I see it. Like 26CornerBlitz said above, the drops by receivers are also a factor as well as Watkins not even trying to go up for the one over the middle. Plus, I hate CJ. Dances too much. Misses open holes. Freddy and Boobie should get WAY more carries.

 

This really bothers me. A 1st round draft pick who is worthy of it, really should not have this much 'tude in his 4th NFL game.

[The Wiz]

I know you already did so much work, any chance we could see completion % for these break downs?

 

I think that would really show more of his issues... Not that I really want to find more.

[Bangarang]

Play action, a clean enough pocket for EJ to step into his throw and make an accurate pass to Woods who is going to be wide open.

 

 

 

Look how wide open Woods gets.

 

 

 

His accuracy is really, really, really bad. The ball is badly overthrown and Woods can do nothing besides watch it sail over his head.

 

 

I'm sure everyone remembers this play and wanted to punch something after it happened.

 

EJ has a clean pocket here. Sammy is about to make his break and release wide open in the middle of the field.

 

 

 

A receiver can't get anymore wide open than this

 

 

 

Accuracy is awful here.

 

 

There's 30 seconds left in the half and we have no time outs. I have no idea what EJ is throwing the ball to Woods here. It's just such a stupid decision where nothing good comes from it.

 

Oh by the way, you can see Watkinds running wide open about 13 yards further down field and he can actually make a break for the sidelines after catching it.

 

 

 

EJ throws passes that can seriously get our receivers hurt. Woods takes a pretty good hit for no reason at all.

 

 

 

EJ there's 7 seconds left in the half. Quick, what do you want to do?

 

EJ: I want to throw an out to Fred and watch him struggle to get out of bounds to try and not run the clock out.

 

 

 

 

We have the ball on the 12 yard line and EJ has already determined that he's throwing this ball to Jackson no matter what.

 

 

 

Watt comes in completely unblocked and EJ basically just says "**** it, I'm throwing it anyway because that's what I decided I was going to do before it was snapped."

 

[BuffaloBud]

The net of this analysis is that while EJ may (stress the word may) have the physical tools to be an NFL QB there is mounting evidence in the you win now NFL that he will not fully develop into a starting NFL QB much less an elite one. The truth of the matter is that the reason why so few people can successfully play QB in the NFL is that it takes a world class almost freak of nature mix of both mental and physical ability to play at a high level.

 

The other QB we saw in the game has the mental but not the physical gifts to get it done. More and more it is becoming the case that EJ has neither at the level it takes in the NFL. The excuse of he is young and he needs time is becoming less and less credible. One might buy this if he flashed brilliance in play more often. Those moments are hardly on record and his results are beginning to add up to a clearer picture over time.

 

I like the OP's thoughts / direction. I went into the NFL archives, pulled pass attempts, completions, and INTs for starting established QB's and developed an average for 2 full seasons. I excluded those from Cle, Hou, Jax, Oak, Min, TB, AZ, and STL as they are too much of a mess / did not fit the year 2 QB profile.

 

EJ

14 games

437 attempts, 256 completions, 58%, 12 INT

 

AFC (11 QBs)

27 games

1059 attempts, 632 completions, 59%, 27 INT

 

NFC (13 QBs)

26 games

757 attempts, 456 completions, 60%, 21 INT

 

Numbers don't tell the whole story, nor are they 100% comparable. But, . . . . food for thought.

Edited September 30, 2014 by BuffaloBud

[Big Gun]

So, you're saying that teams are wasting money on QB coaches? and Kids practicing throwing balls through a tire has no benefit? If it's a debate, it's a ridiculous one. Place a bucket twenty feet from you and throw a ball into it. Do it 5000 times. I guarantee you will get more in after doing this than before. It's common sense (which I realize is not common on TBD).

 

Totally different. You are asking someone to throw a ball into a stationary bucket 20 feet away with no other people around. Sorry but in the NFL QBs usually have to hit a moving target with gigantic men in their face and chasing them trying to hurt them. Apples and oranges comparison.

[LeGOATski]

EJ definitely lost his composure and made some terrible throws.

 

Watkins definitely dropped 3 catchable balls, which is kind of discouraging.

 

Idk why they didn't keep a guy back there to help with Watt all game. I don't think it would limit our offense much. When EJ is protected and not skiddish, he makes more plays...obviously.

 

However, they have no immediate fix for Pears and need a QB back there who won't lose his composure. Especially considering they're about to face the #1 defense.

[QCity]

So, you're saying that teams are wasting money on QB coaches? and Kids practicing throwing balls through a tire has no benefit? If it's a debate, it's a ridiculous one. Place a bucket twenty feet from you and throw a ball into it. Do it 5000 times. I guarantee you will get more in after doing this than before. It's common sense (which I realize is not common on TBD).

 

Ok, I can agree that your accuracy will improve after throwing 5,000 balls into a bucket. But how much will it improve between making 20,000 to 25,000 throws? Probably not much. You're going to reach a ceiling eventually, and it's not like EJ just picked up a ball yesterday. Common sense indeed.

 

QB's don't come to the NFL to learn how to throw. The development of a NFL QB involves learning schemes, playing under center, picking up blitzes, reading defenses, advanced progressions, etc. There are numerous examples from the last 3 games where EJ has correctly read the defense, found the open man, and with a clean pocket and room to throw he has misfired again and again.

 

It's not the OL and it's not Hackett. The problem is #3, and it always has been.

[Agent 91]

 

 

But I tend to side with Young and company who feel accuracy really cannot be taught. There just isn't a lot of statistical evidence that shows a QB's accuracy improving due to experience / coaching. Decision making improves, accuracy can be bolstered, but never "fixed".

 

If EJ learned to made better decisions. Took the year to work on mechanics. I could luv with the occasional inaccurate throws. I think he really gets skittish back there. The confidence from week 1and 2 are long gone. If he learned from SOMEONE that taking risks... and losing sometimes is ok. Thats something Fritz would have taught him. I miss that guy alot. I wish he had NFL physical ability. I like to say...He sucked, but didnt know it. And that swagger will take you far.

[LeGOATski]

 

 

If EJ learned to made better decisions. Took the year to work on mechanics. I could luv with the occasional inaccurate throws. I think he really gets skittish back there. The confidence from week 1and 2 are long gone. If he learned from SOMEONE that taking risks... and losing sometimes is ok. Thats something Fritz would have taught him. I miss that guy alot. I wish he had NFL physical ability. I like to say...He sucked, but didnt know it. And that swagger will take you far.

 

More like "that swagger will get you by."

 

In the case of Fitz, anyway.

Edited September 30, 2014 by LeGOATski

[Orton's Arm]

If EJ learned to made better decisions. Took the year to work on mechanics. I could luv with the occasional inaccurate throws. I think he really gets skittish back there. The confidence from week 1and 2 are long gone. If he learned from SOMEONE that taking risks... and losing sometimes is ok. Thats something Fritz would have taught him. I miss that guy alot. I wish he had NFL physical ability. I like to say...He sucked, but didnt know it. And that swagger will take you far.

 

Pretend you've never thrown a football before. Then you go out one day with some friends, and start throwing it around just for fun. Every time you throw it, it goes exactly where you want it to. At first you're attempting basic throws. But with those working so well, you try more complicated ones. Those also go exactly where you want. You find you're able to hit moving targets right on the money, every time. You can hit targets deep. You even discover you can successfully make every throw on Alex Tanney's video, on your very first try. Somewhere along the way, you're going to become very confident in your ability to throw the football.

 

Now imagine another scenario. Your college coach has only asked you to throw to your first read, and then only when he's wide open. You find that you're good at throws like those. Everyone tells you how great you are, and you believe them. But then you get into the NFL. The coaches start asking you to do things you hadn't done in college. You try and try to do those things, and find you are able to do them some of the time. But more often than not, you fail. The more failure you experience, the less confident you become. In games, you try to avoid NFL-type throws (lack of confidence) while focusing on the kinds of throws at which you succeeded in college.

 

To make a long post short: if Manuel lacks confidence or has lost his confidence, it's probably because he's realized he doesn't have the ability to make NFL-only throws. At least not with any consistency. Lack of ability is driving his lack of confidence.

[mrags]

Is it EJ? Is it the O Line? What is behind the inaccurate throws?

 

I watched the NFL rewind and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How EJ did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate)

 

TOTAL PASS PLAYS - 45 snaps ( this right here is a scary number and falls on Hackett)

 

LINE BREAKDOWN - 13 snaps or 29% of pass plays ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and EJ did not have much of a chance)

 

SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 32 snaps or 71% of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and EJ had time to throw)

 

UNFORCED EJ ERRORS - 11 snaps or 34% of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as EJ having time and having unforced accuracy issues)

 

 

Bottom line is when you get 32 fairly clean pockets and you miss on 11 ( 1/3) of those throws for no apparent reason other than sloppy mechanics or footwork.. you've got a big problem and it's fair to question whether or not you have a legitimate starting NFL QB. I could probably live with 5 or fewer unforced errors.. but double digit bad throws for no good reason is scary.

 

To sum it up.. the O Line is about 1/3 to blame, EJ can be blamed for about 1/3 and I would say the other 1/3 is on Hackett.

ok. Now do this breakdown over every one of his games and compare that to the top 10 in the league over an average and bottom 10 in the league over an average. Now see where he ends up. Then I'll say weather he was terrible or not.

 

I'm not saying he's good. But honestly, I watch other QBs in the league and don't see incredible differences. Of course the Peyton Mannings and Tom Brady's of the world will be head over heels above. At the same time the Blake Bortles and Mark Sanches' of the world will be just as bad or worse.

 

My guess is he probably ends up about 20-24 out of 32 starting QBs in the league.

[Tyrod's Tailor]

. At the same time the Blake Bortles and Mark Sanches' of the world will be just as bad or worse.

 

My guess is he probably ends up about 20-24 out of 32 starting QBs in the league.

 

We'll just see about that one. I think he's going to be a star.

[IronyAbounds]

We'll just see about that one. I think he's going to be a star.

 

 

Yeah, give Bortles at least 5 years of incredible sucking before comparing to Sanchez.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

The Bills OL isn't horrible. Read some of the other analyses of their play - Marrone assembled this group for pass protection. Hackett is calling a conservative game plan to minimize EJ's decision making. On many plays, there are open receivers. The job of an effective QB is to take advantage of that. More often than not, EJ has not taken advantage of that, which emboldens defenses to be even more aggressive.

 

If we go further down memory lane, this is exactly what happened to Todd Collins. It was clear in his first year of starting that he would be a back up at best.

 

Dude I don't care what ej camp you live in. The o line was abused by San Diego and 100 times worse vs Houston.

 

Qb was hit on almost half the drop backs, almost immediately in each case.

 

That isn't good no matter whose throwing the ball

Edited September 30, 2014 by over 20 years of fanhood

[mrags]

 

 

We'll just see about that one. I think he's going to be a star.

ibwas simply picking the lower end QBs of today. As of right now. Doesn't mean he will suck and won't get better. Which ironically, we can't definitively say that about EJ either.

[GG]

 

 

Dude I don't care what ej camp you live in. The o line was abused by San Diego and 100 times worse vs Houston.

 

Qb was hit on almost half the drop backs, almost immediately in each case.

 

That isn't good no matter whose throwing the ball

 

The Bills don't have the worst OL in the league. The QB play had a lot to do with our, because the Deven tee off without worrying about getting burnt by the pass.

 

My wild guess is that the OL suddenly improves this Sunday.