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The "experts" take - Bills at Texans

CodeMonkey

By CodeMonkey
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CodeMonkey All Pro

CodeMonkey

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CBS with Texans -3.5: 4 each, Bills and Texans.

CBS Straight up: 5 Texans 3 Bills, the computer takes the Texans.

 

ESPN: As usual these slackers haven't put their picks in yet.

 

Nate Silvers ELo says "pick-em".

http://fivethirtyeig...d-playoff-odds/

 

FYI: Here is what goes into his ELo rating system.

http://fivethirtyeig...fl-elo-ratings/

 

Probability of the Bills winning according to this ELo system is:

Pr(A) = 1 / (10^(-ELODIFF/400) + 1)

Where ELODIFF is Team A’s Elo rating minus Team B’s Elo rating.

 

So Pr(Bills) = 1 / (10^(-(1473 - 1411)/400) + 1)

Pr(Bills) = 1 / (10^(-62/400) + 1)

Pr(Bills) = 1 / (10^(-0.155) + 1)

Pr(Bills) = 1 / (1.699841996)

Probability of Bills winning is 58.82%

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Edited by CodeMonkey
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atlbillsfan1975 All Pro

atlbillsfan1975

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I wouldn't touch this game if i was a betting man.

This thing could go any which way. Two quarterbacks that are inconstant and have shown can be streaky.

Texans could blow out the Bills if Fitzmagic shows up and Bills D plays like last week.

Bills could blow out Texans if the team plays like they did against the Phish.

OR could be extremely close as each team tries to give away the game...ala Fitz in so many games while the Bills starting qb.

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CodeMonkey All Pro

CodeMonkey

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I wouldn't touch this game if i was a betting man.

This thing could go any which way. Two quarterbacks that are inconstant and have shown can be streaky.

Texans could blow out the Bills if Fitzmagic shows up and Bills D plays like last week.

Bills could blow out Texans if the team plays like they did against the Phish.

OR could be extremely close as each team tries to give away the game...ala Fitz in so many games while the Bills starting qb.

I agree, and with Foster being a maybe it throws even more uncertainty in it.

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BobChalmers Veteran

BobChalmers

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Texans' season sure hasn't been impressive so far:

 

Wins over Redskins and Raiders, and a loss to the Giants.

 

That's three really terrible teams they are 2-1 against. Seriously, any of them could be vying for the #1 overall pick next April.

Edited by BobChalmers
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atlbillsfan1975 All Pro

atlbillsfan1975

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Texans' season sure hasn't been impressive so far:

 

Wins over Redskins and Raiders, and a loss to the Giants.

 

That's three really terrible teams they are 2-1 against. Seriously, any of them could be vying for the #1 overall pick next April.

And the Bills have beat a Bears team that is 2-1 and almost lost to S.F(1-2) and the Jets(1-2). And the Phins (1-2).

My point is the Bills have really done squat so far. Well maybe a little but not nearly enough to get big for their britches.

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Buftex Hall of Famer

Buftex

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I agree, and with Foster being a maybe it throws even more uncertainty in it.

 

To me, more than Foster, JJ Watt and the Texans D-line (or the Bills O-line if you will) are the key as to whether the Bills win or not. I think the defense has looked pretty stout against the run.

 

I think roster for roster though, the Bills are the more talented team. More depth. But do they have more depth and talent where they need it most?

Edited by Buftex
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CodeMonkey All Pro

CodeMonkey

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Which, considering the disparity of overall talent* on paper, is kinda sad

 

* Bills have more overall talent

I think if you asked a knowledgeable non homer (Bills or Texans) to look at both rosters I think they might come up with an analysis that would surprise you and be closer than you think.

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YoloinOhio Hall of Famer

YoloinOhio

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I think if you asked a knowledgeable non homer (Bills or Texans) to look at both rosters I think they might come up with an analysis that would surprise you and be closer than you think.

i agree. Very talented rosters. Except for Watt our DL is better as a whole IMO but otherwise they have a lot.
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CountryCletus Veteran

CountryCletus

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To me, more than Foster, JJ Watt and the Texans D-line (or the Bills O-line if you will) are the key as to whether the Bills win or not. I think the defense has looked pretty stout against the run.

 

I think roster for roster though, the Bills are the more talented team. More depth. But do they have more depth and talent where they need it most?

 

If our coaching staff decides to run, run, and run again- I think this game could be ugly for the Bills... If they actually adjust and shy away from running 65% of the time, there's a legit chance!

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Rockinon Veteran

Rockinon

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If our coaching staff decides to run, run, and run again- I think this game could be ugly for the Bills... If they actually adjust and shy away from running 65% of the time, there's a legit chance!

Teams are averaging over 5yds per carry against the Texans. You sure about that?
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BUFFALOKIE Veteran

BUFFALOKIE

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Teams are averaging over 5yds per carry against the Texans. You sure about that?

 

So, what do you think their game plan is? I imagine they're spending most of their time this week planning to stop our short game. Hit them where they're not looking, right? Pass on the Texasses! Air it out early.

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3rdand12 Hall of Famer

3rdand12

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So, what do you think their game plan is? I imagine they're spending most of their time this week planning to stop our short game. Hit them where they're not looking, right? Pass on the Texasses! Air it out early.

If you air it out early and you dont connect , you just euchered yourself.

I agree they have to threaten vertically but if ej looks ugly early the rest of the game becomes a " prove it " situation. I would suggest not to air it out early unless its there.

Hopefully Goodwin has his feet back under him after the hellacious hit he took from SD

Edited by 3rdand12
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BUFFALOKIE Veteran

BUFFALOKIE

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If you air it out early and you dont connect , you just euchered yourself.

I agree they have to threaten vertically but if ej looks ugly early the rest of the game becomes a " prove it " situation. I would suggest not to air it out early unless its there.

Hopefully Goodwin has his feet back under him after the hellacious hit he took from SD

 

Stick and move. EJ is not a chump. He (by "he", i mean EJ, hackett and th3 rest of the offense) needs to find his rhythm.

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