The "experts" take - Bills at Texans

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

Well, if the QB sucks, and the main RB doesn't get into space (we'll run him up the gut until he pukes), and our WRs suck (because they don't get the ball, because the QB sucks) and the TE sucks... not really sure what that leaves us for offense. I predict a 4-12 record based on expert analysis of TBD.

Is CJ good in traffic? Are the TEs good? Do the WRs get the ball? The answer to all of those IS no and it really is tough to debate otherwise.

 

How about some tiers:

Elite - 1-5 (DL)

Good - 5-8 (ST)

Fine - 8-12 (RBs, S, WR)

Average - 12 - 20 (OL, CBs)

Below average - 20-25 (LBs w/o Kiko)

Bad - 25-30 (QB)

Sucks - 30-32 (TE)

 

I don't know how that equates to 4-12. It isn't black and white. When I look at the Bills position groups compared to the rest of the league this is how it would look off the top of my head. Feel free to disagree with anything. Are there at least 24 starting QBs better than EJ? I would say yes which is why he falls there. Are there 5 better DLs? I would say no, etc....

 

Last thing, 8-8 is average in this league despite the incredibly low bar that the Bills have set over time. The goal shouldn't be to build a team that can get to the playoffs it should be to build a team that can win the Super Bowl. They have some Super Bowl pieces but are lacking some others.

Edited September 26, 2014 by Kirby Jackson

[BUFFALOKIE]

No question on all points.

I am over the Whale vagina game already even though i vented pretty hard.

get that rythym going then blow the top off. Do they have any swirling winds in Tejas ?

 

Most of the swirling winds come from all the Texasses mouths. Texas is a great state, except for all the Texans.

 

You know why Oklahoma has so many tornados? Because Kansas sucks and Texas blows.

Edited September 26, 2014 by THE KIKO MONSTER

[Dorkington]

Is CJ good in traffic? Are the TEs good? Do the WRs get the ball? The answer to all of those IS no and it really is tough to debate otherwise.

 

How about some tiers:

Elite - 1-5 (DL)

Good - 5-8 (ST)

Fine - 8-12 (RBs, S, WR)

Average - 12 - 20 (OL, CBs)

Below average - 20-25 (LBs w/o Kiko)

Bad - 25-30 (QB)

Sucks - 30-32 (TE)

 

I don't know how that equates to 4-12. It isn't black and white. When I look at the Bills position groups compared to the rest of the league this is how it would look off the top of my head. Feel free to disagree with anything. Are there at least 24 starting QBs better than EJ? I would say yes which is why he falls there. Are there 5 better DLs? I would say no, etc....

 

Last thing, 8-8 is average in this league despite the incredibly low bar that the Bills have set over time. The goal shouldn't be to build a team that can get to the playoffs it should be to build a team that can win the Super Bowl. They have some Super Bowl pieces but are lacking some others.

 

I'm not going by logic, I'm going by the rants on the forums about how bad just about every position on this team is. My sarcasm can be hard to pick up on sometimes, sorry about that.

[hondo in seattle]

Nate Silver is a good statistician. He's the guy who correctly picked the winner in all 50 states in the 2012 presidential election (after Romney's folks had some disparaging remarks about his methodology). Silver had previously gone 49 for 50 in 2008.

 

I'm not sure how successful he's been in his football work. But if he's picking the Bills over the Texans, I'm with him.

 

According to Silver's Elo ratings, we have a 34% chance of making the playoffs.

[CodeMonkey]

Nate Silver is a good statistician. He's the guy who correctly picked the winner in all 50 states in the 2012 presidential election (after Romney's folks had some disparaging remarks about his methodology). Silver had previously gone 49 for 50 in 2008.

 

I'm not sure how successful he's been in his football work. But if he's picking the Bills over the Texans, I'm with him.

 

According to Silver's Elo ratings, we have a 34% chance of making the playoffs.

Silvers ELo ranking system has the game as pick'em. 59% chance of Bills winning if my math is correct in the first post.

Edited September 26, 2014 by CodeMonkey

[hondo in seattle]

Silvers ELo ranking system has the game as pick'em. 59% chance of Bills winning if my math is correct in the first post.

 

I looked it up...

 

Silver's Elo formula gives the Bills a 62 point better rating than the Texans.

 

Each Elo point represents 1 point of scoring in a game.

 

That makes the Bills 2.5 point favorites. But it's a home game for Houston and Silver calculates that home teams have a 2.6 point advantage.

 

Thus: pick'em.

[CodeMonkey]

I looked it up...

 

Silver's Elo formula gives the Bills a 62 point better rating than the Texans.

 

Each Elo point represents 1 point of scoring in a game.

 

That makes the Bills 2.5 point favorites. But it's a home game for Houston and Silver calculates that home teams have a 2.6 point advantage.

 

Thus: pick'em.

Yeah me too. Using that 62 point ELo diff is what I used to get the 59% chance of winning.

I was sold on him after the last pres election and even more after reading his book.

He at least attempts to quantify things instead of most "analysts" who tend to go on gut feel and/or pulling things out of their ass.

[San-O]

I wouldn't touch this game if i was a betting man.

This thing could go any which way. Two quarterbacks that are inconstant and have shown can be streaky.

Texans could blow out the Bills if Fitzmagic shows up and Bills D plays like last week.

Bills could blow out Texans if the team plays like they did against the Phish.

OR could be extremely close as each team tries to give away the game...ala Fitz in so many games while the Bills starting qb.

 

I think we can count of Fitzy to hoick one up!!

Edited September 26, 2014 by San-O

[3rdand12]

Gotta have an answer to the Chargers gameplan against us. If I am houston I do the exact same thing.

 

Bills O line cant handle stunts. At all. Haven't played together as a unit very much, in fact not at all until the first game. Texans will test how well we've shored that up. If not, we lose.

 

Bills D is built to stop the run. Preston Brown and Spikes are slow. When both are on the field, Texans will exploit with play action like Rivers did. Can create mismatches quickly with those two on the field. Fitz will throw 40 balls.

 

Never thought I would say this but Searcy being healthy and in the game would help. Duke had a rough outing last week out there.

 

This week we see how good our coaching really is. Schwartz earns his money this week. If I'm Marrone I don't spend one minute with the defense. Every day all day I work with the Oline and the receivers to recognize stunts and blitzes and how to contain Watt.

 

And for god's sake let EJ throw some freaking long balls Hackett you old lady.

Good post .

but the last sentence had me chucklin' a bit.

 

Most of the swirling winds come from all the Texasses mouths. Texas is a great state, except for all the Texans.

 

You know why Oklahoma has so many tornados? Because Kansas sucks and Texas blows.

I never knew that. Makes sense tough when you clarify it that way : )

someone mentioned Bills are middle of the road. Thats better than last year

[Chilly]

Thanks for the link 26!! It reminded me of the year that Jason Peters was coming off of his 1st Pro Bowl season and Marshall Faulk said the Bills biggest need was LT. That was about the only thing that they DIDN'T need (besides RB).

 

Hah. Today he said Fitzpatrick will beat the Bills passing because Leodis McKelvin sucks. I agree with him on Leodis McKelvin sucking, but I'm not sure that counting on Fitz is the right way to go.