Roster Improvement: 2014 vs. 2013

[jwhit34]

If you go position by position, it's pretty clear the roster is way better today vs. the end of 2013:

 

QB: Same players, Manuel should be better in year 2.

 

RB/FB: Addition of Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon more than offsets any potential decline from Fred Jackson due to age. CJ Spiller is in a contract year which usually is a good thing.

 

WR: Watkins and Williams in, Stevie Johnson out, Woods and Goodwin will improve in year 2 of their pro careers - major improvement.

 

TE: If 2013 was a career year for Chandler and Moeaki can't come back from injury, then the TEs could be marginally worse, but that may be a worse case scenario.

 

O-LINE: Glenn should continue to get better, Wood is in prime of his career, Urbik could be a little worse, but Williams is an improvement over Legursky/Brown and Kuoandjio should be better than Pears. Depth should improve too if Henderson is a player.

 

OFFENSE OVERALL: Has to be a lot better.

 

DL: This is probably the biggest question mark compared to last year. Can Kyle and Mario Williams match 2013? Can Dareus keep out of trouble and contine to progress? Does the switch to more of a base 4-3 make the group less effective? Were the results posted by Lawson and Hughes a product of the scheme and can they contribute in a 4-3? There's a lot of talent (4 former first rounders and a 5th rounder who has made the Pro Bowl twice).

 

LBS: Brandon Spikes is a huge upgrade, Kiko should be better. The 3rd LB will probably only play about 40-50% of the plays so if they can get something out of Rivers or the rookie Brown this group should be better, especially against the run.

 

DBS: The loss of Byrd is a big blow, but keep in mind he was a factor in 8-9 games. Gilmore was effective in only 6-7 games because of injury. The addition of Corey Graham is the unsung move of the offseason. Aaron Williams will be better in year 2 as a safety.

 

DEFENSE OVERALL: The pass D may take a little step back but the run defense should be a lot better.

 

SPECIAL TEAMS: PK is in good hands, need to find a new punter. The special teams will be better because the roster is more talented which means the backups that play ST will be better. I wish they would have upgraded the coaching.

 

This team is very, very young. Here are the players who are entering their 3rd year in the league or less or at their present position for only the 2nd year:

 

Manuel, Woods, Goodwin, Glenn, Watkins, Kuoandjio, Bryce Brown, Alonso, Gilmore, A. Williams, possibly Searcy or Duke Williams.

 

What it translates into wins is the big question and much more important than evaluating the talent on paper but one cannot dispute that they have done a pretty terrific job transforming this roster in two offseasons both from a talent and age perspective

[Green Lightning]

My sense is that yeah, this is a better team and Whaley did a great job of filling the holes and picking up good talent at a reasonable cost. On the face of it, I'm feeling pretty good about the season ahead. Now I'll see how fast this thread becomes another EJ debate and/or indictment.

Edited May 15, 2014 by Green Lightning

[billsfan714]

I've been pretty down on the Bill's and rightly so for many years. That said, I am actually believing Whaley and the whole competition thing. RB's with Brown and Dixon as a 3-4 RB, thats pretty deep. The receivers, no doubt deeper with the addition of Watkins and Williams and the subtraction of Stevie. Even TE though they added no draft picks(which is still a need), but you have to believe a 2nd year Gragg and a 2nd chance Moeaki(sp?) gotta be better than the stiffs behind Chandler. The OL no doubt stronger. The DL should be fine, we ran plently of 4 man fronts last year and DE opposite Mario should get it done by committee. Stronger at LB. Corner's are way deep. Who exactly replaces Byrd should be interesting, maybe Duke has something to offer, as they say sometimes it's the 2nd year guys who make the jump to the next level.

 

It's more that obvious Whaley, who preaches how competition make everyone better, has addressed competition everywhere but QB. It's plain as day that they want to give EJ all the confidence in the world because that's the one position that there's really no competition. and I can see their thinking. Confidence is important to a young QB. I get that, but to say that the Bills hopes of improving rest largely with EJ taking the next step can't be understated.

Edited May 15, 2014 by billsfan714

[Dorkington]

I think the team is better, but I'm not sure it'll translate to more wins. I'm not sold on our coaches, and I think our schedule didn't get any easier.

[Billsrhody]

Good post.. its interesting to see the changes from year to year at every position.

 

My biggest worry is that the defense will regress unders Swartz.. but as long as we're marginally better against the run, we shouldnt have too much to worry about. I think it will be important for the Bills to get off to a hot start this year so EJ can build his confidence and this team can get used to winning.

[maryland-bills-fan]

You forgot that we might have two new guards by the end of the year. Cyril Richardson and Unga may replace Williams and Urbik.

[eball]

There were several key additions that will go directly to ST performance -- Boobie Dixon and Corey Graham stick out among these. They're giving Crossman every opportunity to fix things -- no excuses this season.

 

Agree with the general premise of the thread, however -- significant improvement on offense, marginal improvement on defense (but big in weakest area -- LBs).

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I wouldn't be surprised ot see Unga the starter in game #1 and maybe even the rookie too by Sept.

 

You forgot that we might have two new guards by the end of the year. Cyril Richardson and Unga may replace Williams and Urbik.

[HamSandwhich]

Well thought out write up, I agree with most of this. The run defense should be a lot better, and EJ has no excuse when looking at this offense on paper. Lets hope it all translates!

[papazoid]

31 other teams think they got better.

[Manther]

If you go position by position, it's pretty clear the roster is way better today vs. the end of 2013:

 

QB: Same players, Manuel should be better in year 2.

 

RB/FB: Addition of Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon more than offsets any potential decline from Fred Jackson due to age. CJ Spiller is in a contract year which usually is a good thing.

 

WR: Watkins and Williams in, Stevie Johnson out, Woods and Goodwin will improve in year 2 of their pro careers - major improvement.

 

TE: If 2013 was a career year for Chandler and Moeaki can't come back from injury, then the TEs could be marginally worse, but that may be a worse case scenario.

 

O-LINE: Glenn should continue to get better, Wood is in prime of his career, Urbik could be a little worse, but Williams is an improvement over Legursky/Brown and Kuoandjio should be better than Pears. Depth should improve too if Henderson is a player.

 

OFFENSE OVERALL: Has to be a lot better.

 

DL: This is probably the biggest question mark compared to last year. Can Kyle and Mario Williams match 2013? Can Dareus keep out of trouble and contine to progress? Does the switch to more of a base 4-3 make the group less effective? Were the results posted by Lawson and Hughes a product of the scheme and can they contribute in a 4-3? There's a lot of talent (4 former first rounders and a 5th rounder who has made the Pro Bowl twice).

 

LBS: Brandon Spikes is a huge upgrade, Kiko should be better. The 3rd LB will probably only play about 40-50% of the plays so if they can get something out of Rivers or the rookie Brown this group should be better, especially against the run.

 

DBS: The loss of Byrd is a big blow, but keep in mind he was a factor in 8-9 games. Gilmore was effective in only 6-7 games because of injury. The addition of Corey Graham is the unsung move of the offseason. Aaron Williams will be better in year 2 as a safety.

 

DEFENSE OVERALL: The pass D may take a little step back but the run defense should be a lot better.

 

SPECIAL TEAMS: PK is in good hands, need to find a new punter. The special teams will be better because the roster is more talented which means the backups that play ST will be better. I wish they would have upgraded the coaching.

 

This team is very, very young. Here are the players who are entering their 3rd year in the league or less or at their present position for only the 2nd year:

 

Manuel, Woods, Goodwin, Glenn, Watkins, Kuoandjio, Bryce Brown, Alonso, Gilmore, A. Williams, possibly Searcy or Duke Williams.

 

What it translates into wins is the big question and much more important than evaluating the talent on paper but one cannot dispute that they have done a pretty terrific job transforming this roster in two offseasons both from a talent and age perspective

Overall, I like your outlook and think we will be better to this year.

 

I think the team is better, but I'm not sure it'll translate to more wins. I'm not sold on our coaches, and I think our schedule didn't get any easier.

Agreed slightly. I think Marrone will make better in the game decisions in his 2nd year. We gave Hackett more coaches and players to help him. Let's see if he is good enough. Crossman, not sold on at all! And, we have brought in a lot of players to help him!

[Cash]

I'll be surprised if the D doesn't take a step back. Why?

 

1.) Loss of Byrd

 

2.) I'm not sold on Schwartz or the scheme change in general

 

3.) Just plain ol' regression to the mean. A year after setting the team record for sacks, it's almost guaranteed to take a step back. One could argue that Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Jerry Hughes, Manny Lawson, Leodis McKelvin, and Aaron Williams all had career years last year. It's unreasonable to expect them to repeat -- we'll be lucky if half of them produce at about the level they did last year. And Kiko and Robey both had tremendous rookie years, but it wouldn't be at all surprising if one or both regressed somewhat in year 2. Happens all the time.

 

As for the offense, it really all comes down to QB play, I think. I hated the Chris Williams signing as much as anyone, but can he really be worse than what we had last year? Or even as bad? I think the O-line was already underrated last year (due to poor QB play) and should be at least marginally better this year. The RBs were good last year, they'll be good this year. Adding another dude to the mix doesn't really help us much unless there are injuries, so whatever. The WR corps should be improved if Mike Williams can keep his head screwed on, or if Watkins is the exceedingly rare impact rookie WR. I doubt they'll be much worse in any case, especially when you consider how banged-up Stevie was last year. But it really all comes down to QB. EJ's supporting cast has probably improved, but he won't be stepping into some ready-to-dominate offensive juggernaut. He's got enough talent around him to succeed, but not so much that he can't fail. We'll see how much he improves from year 1. It'll need to be a lot for us to make the playoffs.

[chris heff]

31 other teams think they got better.

Kill joy

[McD]

Great outlook, but you could have stopped at your first point. If EJ improves, every other facet of this team improves.

[yungmack]

Great outlook, but you could have stopped at your first point. If EJ improves, every other facet of this team improves.

You of course are 100% correct. In the ordinary course of a career, EJ should be improved over last year just through more experience and further training, so if he isn't better this year then, boy, the Bills are in trouble. However, I think he will be significantly better than last year. Here's hoping.

[maryland-bills-fan]

I'll be surprised if the D doesn't take a step back. Why?

 

1.) Loss of Byrd

 

(((Byrd only played 11 games for the Bills. He has 4.68 speed and is going on age 28. The Bills were 2-3 without him and 4-7 with him. They did worse when he was playing. ))))

 

2.) I'm not sold on Schwartz or the scheme change in general

 

3.) Just plain ol' regression to the mean. A year after setting the team record for sacks, it's almost guaranteed to take a step back. One could argue that Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Jerry Hughes, Manny Lawson, Leodis McKelvin, and Aaron Williams all had career years last year. It's unreasonable to expect them to repeat -- we'll be lucky if half of them produce at about the level they did last year. And Kiko and Robey both had tremendous rookie years, but it wouldn't be at all surprising if one or both regressed somewhat in year 2. Happens all the time.

 

((((Yes, things sometimes vary up, sometimes they vary down and sometimes they stay the same. So?))))))

 

 

As for the offense, it really all comes down to QB play, I think. I hated the Chris Williams signing as much as anyone, but can he really be worse than what we had last year? Or even as bad? I think the O-line was already underrated last year (due to poor QB play) and should be at least marginally better this year.

 

I((((( disagree. We have a new right offensive tackle who will be better than Pears. Williams is an improvement at ROG and we have TWO young players to push Urbik and Williams even more. The o-line will be better.)))))

 

The RBs were good last year, they'll be good this year. Adding another dude to the mix doesn't really help us much unless there are injuries, so whatever. The WR corps should be improved if Mike Williams can keep his head screwed on, or if Watkins is the exceedingly rare impact rookie WR. I doubt they'll be much worse in any case, especially when you consider how banged-up Stevie was last year.

 

{{{Let's see. We added two guys. One is the #4 overall pick and the other was in the running for rookie of the year 3 years ago. We lacked a true #1 last year and it hurt us having a slot-type guy as the #1 receiver. We added two guys, each of whom could be a #1. That is a big improvement.))))))

 

But it really all comes down to QB. EJ's supporting cast has probably improved, but he won't be stepping into some ready-to-dominate offensive juggernaut. He's got enough talent around him to succeed, but not so much that he can't fail. We'll see how much he improves from year 1. It'll need to be a lot for us to make the playoffs.

 

You forgot to mention that we picked up two veteran linebackers to help out the biggest weakness of the defense last year, which was run defense. I like what I see. Marrone looked at the weaknesses of the team (o-line, no #1 WR, poor LB run defense) and he went out to fix them. And I mean really fix them- not just picking up one player in the draft for the fix but taking multiple shots be be sure there is an improvement.

 

PROBLEM: o-line weakness................sign a starting FA, snatch Ugna off of a PS, draft 3 big linemen

PROBLEM LB weaknesses..................sign 2 starting FA, draft 2 linebackers

PROBLEM no #1 receiver....................trade a low pick for a #1, trade up to draft the 4th player in the draft

 

Looks like a plan.

Edited May 15, 2014 by maryland-bills-fan

[C.Biscuit97]

Great outlook, but you could have stopped at your first point. If EJ improves, every other facet of this team improves.

 

Agreed but there are always other factors. The oline needs to be better. IF EJ doesn't throw a perfect pass, receivers need to make plays. The Defense needs to get crucial stops and hold 4th quarter leads like they didn't do 3 times last year. EJ is the trump card but football still is the ultimate team game.

 

I do think we are a more talented team. I wanted to tag Byrd again but I think we can move on from that. Personally, I would have keep SJ.

[StillWaiting]

No expert here---but the biggest need for imporovement had to be the OL.Can't quote stats- but it's been killing me how unsuccessful we've been when it's been 3rd and 1 or even less and we don;t get it. We run the ball pretty good otherwise--but in that situation, when the D knows we're gonna run--we don't seem to get it as often as we should --or other teams do against us. We need to be stronger at the G position. Getting that 1st more often would then improve or D as they wouldn't be on the field as much. I know I'm probably stating the obvoius--but I think this has been our single biggest O weakness--we seem to get to 3rd and short a lot--just need to get the rest.

[jwhit34]

Good points on some of the others with potential, especially on the O-line, though I think starting 2 rookies is a bit risky. If RIchardson pans out I envision that more as a 2015 move.

 

One of the other camp battles that should be interesting is Hopkins vs. Carpenter. Ultimately I don't think it impacts the W-L record but it could be an intriguing matchup.