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RD1, Pick #4: WR Sammy Watkins - Clemson


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Anyone else see the inside the Bills draft room video?

 

According to Jim Monos the Bills tried to trade up to #1 but Houston wouldnt budge

 

 

CBF

 

He said they called Houston first to see what their price was and that they worked their way down the line from there. Makes perfect sense.

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What it comes down to is: are the 3 players(notice I didn't say picks...:wallbash:) that Cleveland/whoever will ultimately select with our picks...better than Watkins.

 

Essentially: would you rather have those 3, or Watkins? The only way the Bills lose the trade? IF those three >Watkins. If they are =, or <, then the Bills win the trade, because if 1 player = 3? You make that trade 100% of the time. If you can put that much value into one player, on a roster of 11? You can always get people who are worth 1 player, in lots of places, the draft is just 1. You rarely get 1 player who is worth 3.

 

RG3 is the perfect example: he is not worth the 5 players given up to get him. In fact, they need the 5 lost players to put around him now. Lost trade. (And really, other than Peyton Manning, who is worth 5 players?)

 

Nice post. I find it funny that the people on this board cannot agree on whether we gave up two firsts and a fourth or one first and a fourth.

 

At the end of the day, we have Sammy Watkins and the Browns ended up with two of our first round picks and a fourth.

 

As I have posted, I hated to see that we gave up so much to move up five spots given what Miami gave up last year to go up from 12 to 3 -- they only had to give up their 12th pick in the first round and the 42nd pick overall. On paper, the Dolphins got more value in terms of picks.

 

The ultimate evaluation will depend on Sammy. I like the kid a lot and he has a lot of talent. If he is the player the Bills brain trust think he is, we will be happy.

 

The Dolphins, on the other hand, while making a better trade on paper, are probably not too pleased with Dion Jordan who could hardly get on the field last year.

 

Washington got the QB they wanted. Many people on the board were complaining that the Bills did not make this kind of move for RGIII at the time. A couple of years later, it looks like the RGIII trade was a bad one for Washington in that they gave up far too much for a QB who has some significant injury concerns -- especially given the style of play that makes RGIII dynamic when he is healthy.

Edited by Peter
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What it comes down to is: are the 3 players(notice I didn't say picks... :wallbash:) that Cleveland/whoever will ultimately select with our picks...better than Watkins.

 

Essentially: would you rather have those 3, or Watkins? The only way the Bills lose the trade? IF those three >Watkins. If they are =, or <, then the Bills win the trade, because if 1 player = 3? You make that trade 100% of the time. If you can put that much value into one player, on a roster of 11? You can always get people who are worth 1 player, in lots of places, the draft is just 1. You rarely get 1 player who is worth 3.

 

RG3 is the perfect example: he is not worth the 5 players given up to get him. In fact, they need the 5 lost players to put around him now. Lost trade. (And really, other than Peyton Manning, who is worth 5 players?)

 

I disagree. If RG3 had not got hurt, he would have been worth what they gave up. I'd do that trade all day every day...........But, only for a quarterback.

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I don't feel like a first and fourth is that much for what is expected to be a game changer. The problem I have is that we aren't certain that we have our Qb of the future. If EJ isn't the guy we likely won't have the picks to get a Qb next year.

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I don't feel like a first and fourth is that much for what is expected to be a game changer. The problem I have is that we aren't certain that we have our Qb of the future. If EJ isn't the guy we likely won't have the picks to get a Qb next year.

 

Even though I don't agree that's a problem, let's say EJ is terrible this year and proves he's not the guy. Watkins is going to sign a 5 year deal -- he'll probably end up being here for at least one more contract after that, so let's say 8 years -- that still leaves plenty of time (and draft picks) to compensate if EJ craps the bed.

 

If they want a guy bad enough they just showed everyone that they're willing to go out and get him. Not having a 1 next year limits their options but doesn't make it impossible to get back into the first round. And if they had held onto this year's pick and EJ turned out to be a bust we'd still have to draft a QB and a number 1 WR (which this team has lacked since Moulds).

 

In other words, the angst is understandable but if you take a second to think about the whole picture you might find some peace of mind.

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It seems to me that Mike Evans could be a number one, and we wouldn't have had to give up that first next year to move up for him.

 

Both are hypothetical though. The first one we will find out about soon enough (and you might be right but to me he only plays outside the numbers and that limits his ceiling), the second one we'll never know.

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Essentially: would you rather have those 3, or Watkins? The only way the Bills lose the trade? IF those three >Watkins. If they are =, or <, then the Bills win the trade, because if 1 player = 3? You make that trade 100% of the time.

 

That's a way of figuring out who "won" the trade (for lack of a better word) but it doesn't tell you if the trade was better for the Bills than standing pat because the Bills wouldn't have drafted the same players (or made the same moves) as Cleveland.

 

I read somewhere from an unnamed Bills front office member that the Bills likely would have drafted Ebron or Beckham Jr. (he said likely Ebron) if they hadn't been able to make the trade. Comparing Watkins to those two seems like a more accurate measure at least in the short run. If either of those guys ends up being comparable to Watkins by themselves then it's pretty obvious the Bills made the wrong move given they could have had either and their picks next year.

 

Since nobody knows what the picks will be next year, to me the question is: Is Watkins so much better than Ebron or Beckham Jr. that the gap between them is worth the 1st and 4th picks in next year's draft. Looking at it with only the pre-draft info I have to say it's a close call. I have no faith in Ebron at all, the guy can't catch the ball and while I like Beckham nothing about him makes me scream, "wow."

 

In the final tally it, obviously, also matters where the Bills would have drafted next year. If they have a top 5 pick it becomes iffy, even if Watkins appears to have a wide gap between him and those other guys.

Edited by MDH
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Iffy? It becomes a disaster.

 

Nah, that in and of itself wouldn't make it a disaster. If Ebron is a total bust and Watkins is a superstar even a top 5 pick next year doesn't make it a bad trade.

 

And I don't buy the argument that if EJ doesn't pan out that we're doomed without a 1st round pick next year. There are other ways of getting a QB than a high first round pick (and those guys only pan out 50% of the time anyway.) Hell, I don't want to wait around for another rookie to grow into the position anyway. If EJ doesn't work out they need to bring a quality vet in to start as the roster is good enough to win now.

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Not sure if this was mentioned earlier in this enormous thread, but what jersey # is Sammy gonna wear?

 

In college he wore 2. However I don't know any NFL receivers who wear that number.

 

WRs can only wear numbers between 10-19 or in the 80s.

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