Bandit's Annual Mock

[thebandit27]

As many of you know, I do one (and only one) mock every year. My goal is to be (a) realistic, and (b) well-reasoned.

 

Last year I was fairly accurate, hitting on 25 of 32 first-round players (I missed on Eric Reid, Justin Pugh, Kyle Long, Datone Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Frederick, and Matt Elam), and nailing 6 players in the correct slot (all 6 to the correct team)—including the St. Louis trade up to 8 to get Tavon Austin.

 

I will preface it, as always, with the caveat that what you see below is not necessarily what I would do, but instead what I believe each team will do…as always, please feel free to provide your comments, insights, critiques, etc. Just remember, I spent a good amount of time and effort on this, so try to be nice

 

1. Houston Texans: Jadeveon Clowney – DE/South Carolina

 

Whether it’s a pick for themselves or someone else, you can generally expect the best player in the draft to go #1 overall, and that’s Clowney. The only red flag he’s got was his less-than-inspired effort last season; make no mistake—when this kid wanted to play, he was a terror. I’ve heard folks say he doesn’t fit Houston’s scheme…well, trust me, you find a way to make use of a guy this talented.

 

2. St. Louis Rams: Sammy Watkins – WR/Clemson

 

Although GM Les Snead has invested quite a few picks on WRs over the last 3 seasons (Austin, Quick, Pettis, Bailey, etc.), I don’t think he can pass on Watkins. Sam Bradford needs reliable targets, and the fact that they re-signed Rodger Saffold in free agency allows them the flexibility to appease their other needs.

 

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Khalil Mack – LB/Buffalo

 

Gus Bradley would love to add a versatile talent that can play the LEO position in his defense, and Mack is a supremely-talented player that can pass rush, cover, roam sideline-to-sideline, you name it. He should play all 3 downs for the Jaguars.

 

4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel – QB/Texas A&M

 

Mike Pettine wants an impact defender, but Ownership wants a QB and a guy that can sell tickets…guess who wins? Love him or hate him, Manziel is an exciting player, and he’s got to energize the fan base more than Brian Hoyer.

 

5. **TRADE** Buffalo Bills (f/ Oakland): Mike Evans – WR/Texas A&M

 

GM Doug Whaley wants a stud, and the ones they like are almost gone, so he makes his move and gets Evans. This isn’t about whether or not the team needs a WR, this is about nabbing a unique playmaker that can add a new dimension to the offense and help out the young QB. Evans possesses a blend of size, speed, and awareness on the field (just go back to how often he adjusted his routes and came back to the QB at A&M) that should make EJ Manuel very, very happy.

 

6. Atlanta Falcons: Greg Robinson – OT/Auburn

 

Atlanta’s train wreck of an offensive line gets an injection of youth and ability in the form of Robinson, whose talent and upside will make him an early starter for the Falcons. This pick allows Sam Baker and Lamar Holmes to fight it out at the other tackle spot, and clears the way for the Falcons to spend the rest of the draft focusing on improving their pass rush and back 7.

 

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jake Matthews – OT/Texas A&M

 

I’m sure Lovie Smith would like to add a defender or WR here, but Matthews is too good to pass on. Tampa signed Anthony Collins in FA, but has been getting solid-but-unspectacular play from Demar Dotson at RT. Matthews is versatile and athletic, and would allow for competition at several spots along the OL.

 

8. Minnesota: Aaron Donald – DT/Pittsburgh

 

How’s this for a scary thought? Donald pairs with 2013 first-round pick Sharrif Floyd to form the next great DT tandem in the Twin Cities. Head coach Mike Zimmer boasted a very solid defense in Cincinnati based heavily upon the work of his interior of Domata Peko and Geno Atkins. He’s got his stouter, Peko-type player in Floyd, and Donald has drawn comparisons to Atkins. Without a sure-thing at QB available, beefing up the D seems to be the right move here.

 

9. **TRADE** Oakland Raiders (f/ Buffalo): Taylor Lewan – OT/Michigan

 

If the rumors are to be believed, Oakland loves Lewan, which fits on a personality basis. FA acquisition Austin Howard is slated to move to guard, and Donald Penn is on the downside of his career (and has only a 2-year deal), so adding a guy like Lewan sets them up to have a future tandem of young tackles along with 2013 2^nd rounder Menelik Watson.

 

10. Detroit Lions: Kyle Fuller – CB/Virginia Tech

 

This may come as a surprise to many, but I’m giving the Lions my #1 CB in Kyle Fuller. While other CBs are rated more highly by many folks, including local product Darqueze Dennard out of Michigan State, Fuller has the highest upside of any CB in the draft. If you want to see his full ability on display, go back and watch the 2013 game against Alabama; he was sensational. He’s got the length and athleticism to match up against the big WRs in the NFC North.

 

11. Tennessee Titans: Justin Gilbert – CB/Oklahoma State

 

The team that lost Alterraun Verner in free agency makes a quick move to replace him. Gilbert boasts the combination of size, strength, and track speed that coaches drool over. He’ll need to get better in run support over time, but can likely come in and start on the boundary from day 1.

 

12. New York Giants: Zack Martin – OG/Notre Dame

 

The Giants need an injection of youth along the OL, and we all know how much Tom Coughlin loves his Golden Domers, don’t we? Martin offers versatility and would stabilize the left side of the line for Eli Manning and a stable of backs that couldn’t get reliable protection last year.

 

13. **TRADE** New York Jets (f/ St. Louis): Darqueze Dennard – CB/Michigan State

 

If the season started today, Dmitri Patterson and Kyle Wilson would be competing for a starting job at CB opposite Dee Milliner; that’s…not…good. Dennard is the style of press-man corner that fits Rex Ryan’s scheme, and adds depth to a secondary that underperformed in 2013 and lost their best player (Antonio Cromartie) in the off-season.

 

14. Chicago Bears: Timmy Jernigan – DT/Florida State

 

I could easily see this pick being a defensive back, but for now I’m leaning toward a replacement for Henry Melton along the DL given that they added Ryan Mundy and M.D. Jennings in free agency and re-signed Charles Tillman and Kelvin Hayden. Jernigan is a relentless force on the interior that would probably be rated higher if not for some injury issues in college. Adding an interior presence to compliment ends Lamar Houston and Jared Allen should make for a serious improvement on defense in the Windy City.

 

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Eric Ebron – TE/North Carolina

 

This pick fits the bill as both best available and a need pick, since Heath Miller is no spring chicken and Matt Spaeth is, well, Matt Spaeth. The Steelers need a big-bodied target to compliment their stable of smaller, quicker guys, and while he may not be the complete package, Ebron represents the blend of size and athleticism that is missing from their current roster.

 

16. Dallas Cowboys: Anthony Barr – DE/UCLA

 

I’m on record as not being a Barr fan, but Jerry’s boys need some pass rush after cutting ties with Demarcus Ware. Jones is on the record as saying that he believes Barr could play DE in a 4-3, and they’re getting pretty good value at this point for a player that came into the season looking like a top 5 pick.

 

17. Baltimore Ravens: HaHa Clinton-Dix – S/Alabama

 

Could GM Ozzie Newsome really go safety with his #1 pick in back-to-back drafts? I say yes. The depth chart behind 2013 1^st rounder Matt Elam is woefully thin, and Ozzie loves those former Tide players. HaHa can add some playmaking ability to Baltimore’s secondary, and allow for the talented trio of Dumervil-Suggs-Upshaw to attack more liberally up front.

 

18. **TRADE** St. Louis Rams (f/ NYJ): Calvin Pryor – S/Louisville

 

Sweet creamery butter do the Rams need a safety…seriously. Luckily, they dropped back just far enough to get an extra pick and still land one of the premier safeties in the draft in Pryor. He may not have the eye-popping measurables, but one look at his game play tells you everything you need to know: he’s instinctive, aggressive, and violent (but clean). He’s an excellent tackler, and he’s also a team leader—something the Rams need after allowing an NFL-worst 8.1 YPA to opposing QBs in 2013.

 

19. Miami Dolphins: Cyrus Kouandjio – OT/Alabama

 

There may not have been a position of greater need in the league than Miami’s need along the offensive line coming out of the 2013 season. While they added some pieces in free agency, they still need a starter at RG and RT, and word has it they like Kouandjio Twin #1 the best of the remaining tackle crop. I also wouldn’t rule out a pick like UCLA’s Xavier Su’a-Filo if they felt he’d be a better long-term pro, as the tackle group is very deep this year.

 

20. Arizona Cardinals: Blake Bortles – QB/Central Florida

 

I’m not convinced that GM Steve Keim and Coach Bruce Arians are on the QB-or-bust train, but I do think that they’d pounce on the chance to draft their pick of the 2^nd QB in the class to serve as heir-apparent to Carson Palmer if given the opportunity. Bortles has an NFL arm and is a pretty good athlete, but needs to be coached up. If Arians has shown anything the last two years, it’s an ability to get the most out of his players, as evidenced by a 10-6 record in the incredibly tough NFC West.

 

21. **TRADE** San Francisco 49ers (f/ GB): Kony Ealy – DE/Missouri

 

The 49ers have a bevy of picks, and are in win-now mode, so they’ll look to trade up and get their guy(s) whenever they can. With Aldon Smith in trouble again and Ahmad Brooks looking like a potential cap-casualty next off-season, it would make sense to ensure themselves a shot at a pass rusher to keep in the fold. To have their pick, they leapfrog Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and New Orleans to nab another Mizzou Tiger in Ealy, who in my opinion has the best closing speed to the QB of any pass rusher in the draft.

 

22. Philadelphia Eagles: Odell Beckham, Jr. – WR/LSU

 

Beckham could certainly go before this, but how happy would Chip Kelly be to have his choice between Beckham, Brandin Cooks, and Marqise Lee to replace DeSean Jackson? Beckham sports a great combination of short-area quickness, top-end speed, and shiftiness with the football, which would make him a popular man in Kelly’s video-game offense. Think about this, opposing defensive coordinators: at any time, the Eagles can put Beckham, Jeremy Maclin, Darren Sproles, LeSean McCoy, and Zach Ertz on the field…good grief that’s a lot of speed.

 

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Brandin Cooks – WR/Oregon State

 

Head coach Andy Reid likes the speed guys at WR, and they don’t get much speedier than Cooks. Adding a legitimate threat opposite Dwayne Bowe (sorry Donnie Avery and A.J. Jenkins, but you don’t count) will give opposing defenses another factor to game plan against and prevent them from loading up to stop Jamaal Charles.

 

24. Cincinnati Bengals: Demarcus Lawrence – DE/Boise State

 

I’ve been told that the Bengals love Ryan Shazier, so that’s a possibility as well, but I’m giving them Lawrence here to fill the hole left by the departure of Michael Johnson in free agency. Lawrence is built perfectly as a pass rusher, with long arms, a lean upper-body, and other-world-like hand size (11”). He amassed 20.5 sacks over the last 2 seasons, and would probably be taken higher if he bulked up and became a better run defender.

 

25. San Diego Chargers: Jason Verrett – CB/TCU

 

Quick, name a Chargers’ CB without looking…go! Okay, I can do it, but that’s only because I’m a nerd. San Diego allowed 8.0 YPA to opposing passers last year, and failed to add any pieces to their secondary in free agency, so addressing it in the draft is a must. Verrett isn’t the biggest guy, but he’s very physical and has excellent technique and recovery speed. When you’re competing in the division against Peyton Manning, you need to have a solid secondary…this would be a solid step one for the Chargers.

 

26. Cleveland Browns (f/ Indianapolis): Marqise Lee – WR/USC

 

After snagging their new QB at 4, the Browns shift their focus to adding a target opposite Josh Gordon with this pick. Lee doubles as both a chain-mover and a deep threat, and will give Cleveland a much-needed third option in the passing game.

 

27. New Orleans Saints: Dee Ford – DE/Auburn

 

Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan needs a pass rushing presence to compliment Junior Galette, sort of like free agent signee Victor Butler was supposed to do before tearing his ACL last summer. Ford isn’t generating a lot of buzz right now, but in my opinion that’s because he’s a known commodity; a guy that can get after the QB and make plays. If you want a sleeper name to watch here, Georgia Tech’s Jeremiah Attaochu is reportedly on the rise.

 

28. Carolina Panthers: Joel Bitonio – OT/Nevada

 

Much has been publicized about Carolina’s lack of WRs, but did you know that last year’s starters at LT and RG both retired, and that their incumbent RT is an un-signed RFA? If the season started today, backup RG Nate Chandler would be starting at LT…seriously. Bitionio is LT material, as he is a technician with great footwork and a nasty streak. I’ve also heard that he’s high on their board.

 

29. New England Patriots: Ra’Shede Hageman – DT/Minnesota

 

Next to Aaron Donald, there may not be a more talented interior defender in the class than Hageman. He’s been maligned for a perceived lack of work ethic, as well as for a run-in with the law (disorderly conduct), but his ability to be disruptive in opponents’ backfields has never been questioned. Let’s see…untapped potential, risk, edge to his game…sounds like a Bill Belichick draft pick to me.

 

30. **TRADE** Green Bay Packers (f/ SF): Ryan Shazier – LB/Ohio State

 

The Packers have been looking to get more athletic on defense, and Shazier is probably the best athlete at the LB position that this draft has to offer. He’s a lean 230 lbs, but his coverage ability and nose for the football would make him a perfect fit next to A.J. Hawk. Try to imagine being an offensive coordinator and game-planning for a LB group consisting of Hawk and Shazier inside, and Clay Matthews III and Julius Peppers outside…nasty.

 

31. Denver Broncos: C.J. Mosley – LB/Alabama

 

Denver filled their only offensive hole by shifting Orlando Franklin to LG to replace the departed Zane Beadles (with last year’s LT Chris Clark moving to RT now that Ryan Clady is healthy again), so I’ve got them looking to the defensive side of the ball in round 1. They haven’t gotten what they want out of 2011 3^rd rounder Nate Irving, and Danny Trevathan is a bit small to play MLB in a 4-3. Mosley is the kind of thumper they need to patrol the middle of the field on 1^st and 2^nd downs, and in my mock they’re lucky enough to find him on the board this late.

 

32. **TRADE** Jacksonville Jaguars (f/Seattle): Derek Carr – QB/Fresno State

 

The Champs can afford to trade down and get extra picks to address their offensive line, which allows Jacksonville to move up and get their man in Carr. With Houston, Oakland, and Tampa Bay all picking before them in round 2, the Jaguars need to be aggressive to get the signal-caller they want.

Edited May 6, 2014 by thebandit27

[BRAWNDO]

Any mock draft that has the Bills getting Evans or Watkins is a home run in my book..

[Mark80]

Nice job, better than most "expert" mocks. Would be helpful if you posted all of the original teams from the traded slots (some are there) and maybe what the trade was to see if it makes sense.

 

I can't imagine St. Louis not taking an OL, just can't do it. I really like your Donald pick to Minn. I also am not a Barr fan at all. I said a few months ago (http://forums.twobil...80#entry3048425 post #11) that he was falling when he was rated top 5 by many and got called out by numerous people (just like I did last year with Geno when he skipped the Senior Bowl - http://forums.twobil...r bowl__st__40 post #42, 44, 51). Well, guess what fellas? He's a fallen! I don't think he'll go in the top 20 and if he does, they are going to be very disappointed in what they get.

 

With that being said, I've been saying Mosley is the second best LB for a while now. I think he goes higher than you project and I really like the Ravens grabbing him and loving the guy for 8 or so years.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Mark80

[Kirby Jackson]

Great stuff as always Bandit. I think that you are pretty close on a lot of this. One thing that I think is that if the 49ers were to come up there it would be for OBJ or Cooks but other than that I don't have many discrepancies. Your mock seems to be about as likely as most that I have seen IMO.

[K-9]

NIce job, bandit.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[bowery4]

So what did we give up for that trade?

[thebandit27]

Nice job, better than most "expert" mock's. Would be helpful if you posted all of the original teams from the traded slots (some are there) and maybe what the trade was to see if it makes sense.

 

Fixed...will provide responses once more comments roll in...thanks for stopping by!

[Wayne Cubed]

Good stuff Bandit, appreciate the time you put into it.

[Coach Tuesday]

Great work per usual.

 

Although it seems to me that the Rams really, really need blockers...

[TC in St. Louis]

I believe that the Rams will trade the 2nd pick to Cleveland in return for the #4 pick, this year's 2nd round pick, and next year's 2nd round pick. And Cleveland will take Manziel. And St. Louis will take Matthews with the #4 pick. The Rams are pretending that they will draft Manziel to get Cleveland all worked up. They flew to Texas last week to meet with Manziel. Fakeout.

[GunnerBill]

Good work. I think I counted 7 picks exactly the same as my mock that I posted here a few weeks ago http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/167078-my-full-first-round-mock-draft/?do=findComment&comment=3108437 (including Shazier to Green Bay albeit you mocked that after a trade down) and then another half dozen or so where you have gone same position but different player, for example I've got the receivers and defensive backs stacked a little differently.

 

Nothing here that is obvious to to disagree with though.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

Great work Bandit!

 

For some reason I really have this feeling that the Browns will draft Carlos Hyde at #26

 

CBF

[SteveFreeman22]

Don't think the Bills take a WR in round one.Probably be Matthews or Lewan,I'd be happy either one of them.

[YoloinOhio]

Great work Bandit!

 

For some reason I really have this feeling that the Browns will draft Carlos Hyde at #26

 

CBF

Very likely. Sad but true - Browns have major campaign to try to manufacture a fan base in Cbus and nothing will bring fans to the Brown games from down here like an OSU favorite on the field. Plus he fills a need. Edited May 6, 2014 by YoloinOhio

[NoSaint]

any arguments on it would be nitpicking, really. all well reasoned and no craziness. Are you sure you meant to post it here? does round 2 start with a proposed change to the draft format?

[KOKBILLS]

Looks good to me! Can't argue with my 2nd favorite player in this Draft going to the Bills!!!

Edited May 6, 2014 by KOKBILLS

[YoloinOhio]

Bandit, this should be posted somewhere more respectable. Good work!

[yungmack]

Very plausible and well-reasoned. Good work.

[C.Biscuit97]

Bandit > Todd McShay. I put more stock into this than any of the ESPN guys. It's hard to predict trades though, but Lewan on the Raiders would be fitting.

[thebandit27]

Thanks for the compliments all.

 

Nice job, better than most "expert" mocks. Would be helpful if you posted all of the original teams from the traded slots (some are there) and maybe what the trade was to see if it makes sense.

 

I can't imagine St. Louis not taking an OL, just can't do it. I really like your Donald pick to Minn. I also am not a Barr fan at all. I said a few months ago (http://forums.twobil...80#entry3048425 post #11) that he was falling when he was rated top 5 by many and got called out by numerous people (just like I did last year with Geno when he skipped the Senior Bowl - http://forums.twobil...r bowl__st__40 post #42, 44, 51). Well, guess what fellas? He's a fallen! I don't think he'll go in the top 20 and if he does, they are going to be very disappointed in what they get.

 

With that being said, I've been saying Mosley is the second best LB for a while now. I think he goes higher than you project and I really like the Ravens grabbing him and loving the guy for 8 or so years.

 

Thanks...I'm also not a Barr guy, and I imagine the Rams will take advantage of the deep tackle class in round 2.

 

Great stuff as always Bandit. I think that you are pretty close on a lot of this. One thing that I think is that if the 49ers were to come up there it would be for OBJ or Cooks but other than that I don't have many discrepancies. Your mock seems to be about as likely as most that I have seen IMO.

 

Thanks. I could see that as well; just have a feeling about Ealy and SF.

 

So what did we give up for that trade?

 

I'm guessing a 3rd

 

Great work per usual.

 

Although it seems to me that the Rams really, really need blockers...

 

They do...again I suspect they'll go there in round 2.

 

I believe that the Rams will trade the 2nd pick to Cleveland in return for the #4 pick, this year's 2nd round pick, and next year's 2nd round pick. And Cleveland will take Manziel. And St. Louis will take Matthews with the #4 pick. The Rams are pretending that they will draft Manziel to get Cleveland all worked up. They flew to Texas last week to meet with Manziel. Fakeout.

 

Perhaps...but if I'm Cleveland I just sit there and wait...worst case scenario is Clowney, Mack, Manziel go in the first 3 picks, and then you can either trade down or pick one of the 3 remaining studs.

 

Good work. I think I counted 7 picks exactly the same as my mock that I posted here a few weeks ago http://forums.twobil...t/#entry3108437 (including Shazier to Green Bay albeit you mocked that after a trade down) and then another half dozen or so where you have gone same position but different player, for example I've got the receivers and defensive backs stacked a little differently.

 

Nothing here that is obvious to to disagree with though.

 

Great minds think alike?

 

Great work Bandit!

 

For some reason I really have this feeling that the Browns will draft Carlos Hyde at #26

 

CBF

 

Oddly enough, I have them taking him at 35.

 

Don't think the Bills take a WR in round one.Probably be Matthews or Lewan,I'd be happy either one of them.

 

I have a funny feeling you'll be surprised come Thursday

 

any arguments on it would be nitpicking, really. all well reasoned and no craziness. Are you sure you meant to post it here? does round 2 start with a proposed change to the draft format?

 

Haha...thanks.

 

Bandit, this should be posted somewhere more respectable. Good work!

 

Sorry, it wouldn't fit in the Shoutbox