Official Playoff Possibilities Thread

[dwight in philly]

So you thought this thread was dead? Think again!

 

http://www.wgr550.co...h-7-9-/17965274

 

I recognize this is a tremendous waste of time, but what else am I going to do on my Friday lunch hour? For those curious how the Bills can remain mathematically alive after this week, here's what needs to happen in week 15:

 

1) Bills over Jags

2) Lions over Ravens

3) Pats over Dolphins

4) Panthers over Jets

 

If those games go our way, here's what we'd need to stay alive thru week 16:

 

1) Bills over Dolphins

2) Pats over Ravens

3) Browns over Jets

4) Raiders over Chargers

 

And if THOSE games go our way, here's what we need to clinch a spot in week 17:

 

1) Bills over Pats

2) Bengals over Ravens

3) Chiefs over Chargers

4) Jets over Dolphins

 

Also, I think a couple other teams like the Steelers would need to lose at least one game along the way, but it wouldn't matter where.

 

So there you have it, 12 steps to a Bills playoff berth. Call it the Dirty Dozen. Let's do this!

 

And for the record, if you assume each of those 12 outcomes has about a 50% likelihood of happening (obviously some are more likely than others, but just for the sake of argument ...), then if my math is correct the Bills' likelihood of making the playoffs would be approximately .02%, or about 1 in 5,000. Tis the season for miracles!

i know i need a life, but at least it is a reason to watch the game. the other three this week could happen.. thanks for the info. Edited December 13, 2013 by dwight in philly

[bobobonators]

WHEN WILL THE INSANITY ENDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

So you thought this thread was dead? Think again!

 

http://www.wgr550.com/In-the-realm-of-crazy--Bills-have-chance-with-7-9-/17965274

 

I recognize this is a tremendous waste of time, but what else am I going to do on my Friday lunch hour? For those curious how the Bills can remain mathematically alive after this week, here's what needs to happen in week 15:

 

1) Bills over Jags

2) Lions over Ravens

3) Pats over Dolphins

4) Panthers over Jets

 

If those games go our way, here's what we'd need to stay alive thru week 16:

 

1) Bills over Dolphins

2) Pats over Ravens

3) Browns over Jets

4) Raiders over Chargers

 

And if THOSE games go our way, here's what we need to clinch a spot in week 17:

 

1) Bills over Pats

2) Bengals over Ravens

3) Chiefs over Chargers

4) Jets over Dolphins

 

Also, I think a couple other teams like the Steelers would need to lose at least one game along the way, but it wouldn't matter where.

 

So there you have it, 12 steps to a Bills playoff berth. Call it the Dirty Dozen. Let's do this!

 

And for the record, if you assume each of those 12 outcomes has about a 50% likelihood of happening (obviously some are more likely than others, but just for the sake of argument ...), then if my math is correct the Bills' likelihood of making the playoffs would be approximately .02%, or about 1 in 5,000. Tis the season for miracles!

 

Thank you

[CodeMonkey]

WHEN WILL THE INSANITY ENDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

Probably sometime Sunday.

[H2o]

So you thought this thread was dead? Think again!

 

http://www.wgr550.co...h-7-9-/17965274

 

I recognize this is a tremendous waste of time, but what else am I going to do on my Friday lunch hour? For those curious how the Bills can remain mathematically alive after this week, here's what needs to happen in week 15:

 

1) Bills over Jags

2) Lions over Ravens

3) Pats over Dolphins

4) Panthers over Jets

 

If those games go our way, here's what we'd need to stay alive thru week 16:

 

1) Bills over Dolphins

2) Pats over Ravens

3) Browns over Jets

4) Raiders over Chargers

 

And if THOSE games go our way, here's what we need to clinch a spot in week 17:

 

1) Bills over Pats

2) Bengals over Ravens

3) Chiefs over Chargers

4) Jets over Dolphins

 

Also, I think a couple other teams like the Steelers would need to lose at least one game along the way, but it wouldn't matter where.

 

So there you have it, 12 steps to a Bills playoff berth. Call it the Dirty Dozen. Let's do this!

 

And for the record, if you assume each of those 12 outcomes has about a 50% likelihood of happening (obviously some are more likely than others, but just for the sake of argument ...), then if my math is correct the Bills' likelihood of making the playoffs would be approximately .02%, or about 1 in 5,000. Tis the season for miracles!

 

Everything will go our way up until the Sunday in week 17 when the Bills lose against the Pats* 3rd stringers.

[bbb]

Probably sometime Sunday.

 

There's got to be a way for us to make it at 6-10!

[Just in Atlanta]

Please kill this thread!

 

It's kinda painful to look at the headline, when two short weeks ago there was actually a decent chance.

 

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Everything will go our way up until the Sunday in week 17 when the Bills lose against the Pats* 3rd stringers.

OUCH

 

If the Brocno's lose 1 more game the Cheatriots get the #1 seed as long as they win the next 2 weeks.

 

I still can't Billieve they have not yet been officially eliminated.

 

And for the record, if you assume each of those 12 outcomes has about a 50% likelihood of happening (obviously some are more likely than others, but just for the sake of argument ...), then if my math is correct the Bills' likelihood of making the playoffs would be approximately .02%, or about 1 in 5,000. Tis the season for miracles!

Like me winning the $400 million lottery tonight ???

[CodeMonkey]

Like me winning the $400 million lottery tonight ???

Hey, you never know!

[Flip Johnson]

The necessary wk. 15 wins are not cumulatively probable, but they are individually probable. A Bills fan is rooting for favorites this week.

 

Let's beat the Jags and move this thing to wk. 16

[Reddy Freddy]

The necessary wk. 15 wins are not cumulatively probable, but they are individually probable. A Bills fan is rooting for favorites this week.

 

Let's beat the Jags and move this thing to wk. 16

 

Well said. I give the Bills and Lions each about a 60% chance of winning, and the Patriots and Panthers each about a 75% chance of winning. Assuming those odds, there's about a 20% chance we're still alive heading into next week. Keep hope alive!

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

reddy freddy-- truly awesome post.

 

Now, I have something to root for this Sunday...

[djp14150]

NFC......

 

If DAL & PHL tied---DAL will get the tie breaker

 

If DET and CHI tied--DET gets the tiebreaker.

 

IF NO and CAR are tied NO gets the tiebreaker.

 

IF SF and SEA end up tied SF would get the tie breaker of division record. Az cant win the division. IF Az and SEA are tied at 11-5--SEA would have tiebreaker of conference record.

 

 

wild card

 

Arizona has the tiebreaker on CAR

Carolina has tiebreaker on SF

SF has tiebreaker on AZ

 

So for week 17 SF/AZ game to mean anything they need to be tied then winner would get wild card.

 

Wild Card at 10-6

 

 

DAL at 10-6 will win division.

DET at 10-6 win the division

CHI at 10-6 will win division if DET lose 1.

Since PHL and CHI play—only one of them would have 10 wins

Conference wins:

PHL 9 beat AZ CHI 6 beat DAL

CAR 7/8 SF 7 AZ 6/7

CHI lose to CAR, SF, & AZ (common games)

PHL edges CAR, SF, & AZ

 

At 9-7

 

PHL 8 DAL 8 DET 7/8

SF 7 CAR 6

 

AZ cant pass SF, CAR beat SF

CHI loses all tiebreakers

DET beat DAL, PHL beat DET

 

AFC wild card

 

10-6 BAL, MIA

 

BAL win last 3

MIA win last 3 and BAL lose 1

 

IF KC were to finish at 10-6 BAL and MIA get the wild cards.

 

9-7 BAL, MIA, MYJ, SD

NYJ & MIA tied at 9-7 NYJ get the tiebreker for 2^nd based on common games.

MIA-SD MIA H2H

BAL-MIA /MYJ BAL H2H

SD-BAL BAL conf record

SD-NYJ SD conf record

NYJ-BAL-SD BAL conf record

MIA-BAL-SD MIA conf record (IF BAL lose is to DET), BAL conf record (IF BAL lose is to AFC)

 

8-8 BAL, MIA, MYJ, SD, PIT, TEN

NYJ 2-1 /MIA 1-2 If MIA beat NYJ then MIA has H2H, otherwise NYJ get 2^nd place

PIT 3-0/BAL 1-2 then PIT has div record for 2^nd place.

 

 

 

TEN beat SD, NYJ, and PIT

MIA beat PIT, SD

BAL beat NYJ, MIA

PIT beat NYJ

Conf wins

BAL 7/6 PIT 6 MIA 7 NYJ 4/5 SD 5 TEN 6

BAL-MIA BAL BAL-NYJ BAL

PIT-MIA MIA PIT-NYJ PIT

MIA-SD MIA NYJ-SD SD

MIA-TEN MIA NYJ-TEN TEN

BAL-SD BAL BAL-TEN BAL***

PIT-SD PIT PIT-TEN TEN

TEN-SD TEN

 

***BAL-TEN if BAL loses to DET then BAL has better conference record, IF BAL beats DET, then it comes down to S.V. of which BAL has a significant edge.

3 or 4 way ties…its head to head where one team either beat others or lost to others then conference record. Once down to 2 teams it reverts to just a 2 team tie.

 

 

 

 

 

7-9 Mia lose 3, BAL lose 3, NYJ lose to CAR & CLE…..

MIA out

BUF wins 3 they earn 2^nd, if not Jets earn 2^nd.

BAL lose 3 and tied with PIT/CLE—PIT/CLE win tie for 2nd

TEN/JAX tied at 7-9 JAX has the tie breaker H2H

SD/OAK tied 7-9, OAK has tie breaker div record

BUF & JAX cant both finish 7-9 due to game against each other

 

Conference wins:

 

BUF 6 NYJ 4

BAL 6 PIT 5/6 CLE 5

TEN 5/6 JAX 7

SD 5 OAK 7

 

both BUF and JX cant be 7-9 because of sundays game.

EAST & North can be 2 way tied at 7-9, SOUTH and WEST will be tied with a team from the EAST and NORTH

BUF-BAL BUF BUF-CLE CLE BUF-PIT PIT

BUF-SD BUF BUF-OAK OAK BUF-TEN -----

CLE-TEN --- CLE-OAK OAK CLE-SD --- CLE-JAX JAX

JAX-OAK OAK TEN-OAK TEN JAX-SD SD

JAX-BAL JAX PIT-OAK OAK

 

Buffalo would need to finish in 2nd place and be tied with BAL at 7-9 or Buffalo is tied with PIT/CLE and SD and/or TEN (if TEN only has 5 conference wins)

 

IF BUF and TEN are both 7-9 and TEN goes 2-1 but losing to AZ but winning their divisional games then they would both be 6-6, but TEN would have better common game record. beating AZ and losing 1 of their last 2 gives them only 5 conference wins.

Edited December 14, 2013 by djp14150

[YoloinOhio]

Berman just said on NFL Countdown that the Bills are still in the playoff hunt, they weren't listed on the screen but he said he had to get that in because it isn't often he can say that this late in the year. LOL.

[JimBob2232]

Pats lost. Playoff dreams are now (officially) over. Ugh.

[tito1]

Mathematically eliminated

 

I want to cry

[Reddy Freddy]

Pats lost. Playoff dreams are now (officially) over. Ugh.

 

Fitting that it was the Pats that put the nail in the coffin, even in defeat.

[qblax16]

I hate the Pats... Just came on to check to see if I was right, and it looks like the Pats in fact eliminated us! Maybe the Pats can lose next week, and we can knock them out completely!

 

Nevermind... I think the Pats are in... but knock them out of division win?

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

I hate the Pats... Just came on to check to see if I was right, and it looks like the Pats in fact eliminated us! Maybe the Pats can lose next week, and we can knock them out completely!

 

Nevermind... I think the Pats are in... but knock them out of division win?

Fitting that it was the Pats that put the nail in the coffin, even in defeat.

they screw us even when we don't play them!!!

 

its moot but I'm still glad the Putrids don't have a playoff spot locked up yet.

[djp14150]

NFC East

 

If PHL win and DAL lose--PHL win division in week 16 otherwise week 17 for division title.

 

 

NFC North...with Lions loss...this makes them lose control.

 

IF CHI and GB win next week DET is eliminated. DET needs one to lose next week, and then have the loser win tweek 17 and also win out their last 2 games.

 

NFC AZ, NO, CAR, SF

 

Arizona they need to win out and have Carolina or SF lose an additional game.

 

SF and AZ tie- SF in 2nd either H2H or division record

CAR and AZ- AZ due to H2H

IF SF, CAR, and AZ all tied…CAR seed #5 due to H2H over SF, SF seed #6 due to AZ tiebreaker

 

NO beat AZ, lost to SF

 

next week NO at CAR game will effectively decide the division title. NO win division with win. Carolina still needs to win the following week or have NO lose to clinch division.

 

Arizona is in a difficult situation. They need SF to lose next week. Sf win SF clinch 2nd place and their will be no way for AZ to pass them and make the playoffs with a win...here is why

 

If SF WL then SF 11-5 and AZ WW AZ 11-5

 

2. SF 11-5

3. AZ 11-5

 

 

Going into week 17 game NO/CAR loser would be 10-5. They both beat SF so a win and then get the edge for #5 over SF thus AZ cant control their own fate even by winning out.

 

For AZ to make it they need to win 2 and have one of the other 3 teams lose 2.....good luck.

 

 

 

 

AFC....

 

Tennessee is eliminated.....

 

 

 

 

 

10-6 BAL, MIA, CIN, NE

CIN go 1-1

NE 0-2

BAL win last 2

MIA win last 2

 

division....

BAL would get the division by season sweep

MIA would get division by better division record

BAL over NE by H2H

CIN over NE by H2H

MIA over CIN by H2H

BAL over MIA by H2H

 

if NE wins 1 of last 2 they clinch division, or have BAL/MIA lose 1.

Cincinati needs to beat BAL, or habe BALT lose to NE.

 

9-7 BAL, MIA, SD

 

MIA-SD MIA H2H

BAL-MIA BAL H2H

SD-BAL BAL conf record

MIA-BAL-SD MIA conf record

 

8-8 PIT--Jets are now eliminated

 

MIA 0-2, BAL go 0-2, and SD need to go 1-1 or 0-2

 

MIA beat PIT, PIT would get 2nd place in a tie with BAL at 8-8 either by div record

 

For PIT to get in they need to get to 8-8 and have Jets win out to go to 8-8 and be in 2nd place and have SD lose 1

 

PIT H2H over Jets

PIT conf record over SD

PIT, NYJ, SD tie PIT conf record

 

PIT is tied with MIA at 8-8---MIA has the H2H and if SD was also tied MIA gets in because of beating both teams.

 

 

 

 

 

St. Louis on the verge of getting the 2nd overall pick and another top 10-15 pick. Wow!

 

If HOU wins 1 and WAS lose 2 then WAS ---err STL gets the #1 overall.

 

1 HOU 2 123

2 WAS 3 114

3 JAX 4 111

4 OAK 4 112

5 CLE 4 114

6 ATL 4 124.5

7 TB 4 129

8 MIN 4.5 116

9 TEN 5 112

10 BUF 5 117

11 NYG 5 118