For those of you missing Levitre

[thebandit27]

oh i am serious........you start by drafting LT Jake Mathews or LT Taylor Lewan......assuming a QB is not worthy at our pick (around 10th). put that rookie at RT and move Pears to LG.

 

And this gives us 5 all-pro linemen?

 

Honest question: does this even give us one all-pro lineman?

 

Historical question: has there ever been, in the history of the NFL, a single team with 5 all-pro linemen?

 

Current NFL question: which playoff contender has more than one lineman that will be voted all-pro in 2013?

[dave mcbride]

Chris Johnson is averaging 3.7 ypc. He averaged 4.5 last year. Good thing the Titans paid Levitre big money and drafted a G in the top 10. Guards don't win games.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics in this case. Last year, Chris Johnson had TD runs of 94 and 83 yards. This year, his longest run is 30 yards. Trust me when I say that when a RB gets 20 yards beyond the LOS what a guard did or didn't do has no bearing on how long the run ends up being, especially for a blazer like Johnson. Take away those two runs, and he averaged 3.9 ypc last year. Even if you give him 30 for each of those runs, he would have averaged 4.0 ypc.

 

On the other hand, Johnson is averaging 8.6 yards per reception this season on more catches already (even with two games to go). He averaged 6.4 last year and had fewer catches. Most of those come on dumpoffs/screens in which the guards are involved. Overall, factoring IN the huge runs, he average 4.7 yards per touch last season. This year, he's averaging 4.5. Transform those two huge gains into 30 yard gains, and he averaged 4.35 yards per touch last season (less than this current season).

 

Moreover, the Titans sack rate has gone down this season and the QB rating has gone up to 84.6 from 76.9 last season. And this is with Fitz playing most of the games.

Edited December 17, 2013 by dave mcbride

[thebandit27]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics in this case. Last year, Chris Johnson had TD runs of 94 and 83 yards. This year, his longest run is 30 yards. Trust me when I say that when a RB gets 20 yards beyond the LOS what a guard did or didn't do has no bearing on how long the run ends up being, especially for a blazer like Johnson. Take away those two runs, and he averaged 3.9 ypc last year. Even if you give him 30 for each of those runs, he would have averaged 4.0 ypc.

 

On the other hand, Johnson is averaging 8.6 yards per reception this season on more catches already (even with two games to go). He averaged 6.4 last year and had fewer catches. Most of those come on dumpoffs/screens in which the guards are involved. Overall, factoring IN the huge runs, he average 4.7 yards per touch last season. This year, he's averaging 4.5. Transform those two huge gains into 30 yard gains, and he averaged 4.35 yards per touch last season.

 

Moreover, the Titans sack rate has gone down this season and the QB rating has gone up to 84.6 from 76.9 last season. And this is with Fitz playing most of the games.

 

I'm not sure that you strengthened your point with that second paragraph

[dave mcbride]

I'm not sure that you strengthened your point with that second paragraph

Explain.

[T master]

Titans were screwed the second Fitz stepped on the field. Doesn't matter who is blocking.

 

Ya maybe but he's still ahead of EJ as far as performance so what does that tell us ???

[thebandit27]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics in this case. Last year, Chris Johnson had TD runs of 94 and 83 yards. This year, his longest run is 30 yards. Trust me when I say that when a RB gets 20 yards beyond the LOS what a guard did or didn't do has no bearing on how long the run ends up being, especially for a blazer like Johnson. Take away those two runs, and he averaged 3.9 ypc last year. Even if you give him 30 for each of those runs, he would have averaged 4.0 ypc.

 

On the other hand, Johnson is averaging 8.6 yards per reception this season on more catches already (even with two games to go). He averaged 6.4 last year and had fewer catches. Most of those come on dumpoffs/screens in which the guards are involved. Overall, factoring IN the huge runs, he average 4.7 yards per touch last season. This year, he's averaging 4.5. Transform those two huge gains into 30 yard gains, and he averaged 4.35 yards per touch last season (less than this current season).

 

Moreover, the Titans sack rate has gone down this season and the QB rating has gone up to 84.6 from 76.9 last season. And this is with Fitz playing most of the games.

 

You seem to want to remove the long runs to bolster the idea that his YPC isn't largely changed, then you proceed to tout that his YPR has increased--seemingly correlating that somehow to the performance of the OL...yet you neglected to mention that he has receptions of 66 and 49 yards (which were both catch-and-runs--one of which came in garbage time). If you were to remove those two catches from the equation, as you did with the long runs of 2012, Johnson's YPR would drop to 5.9, which would be a half-yard drop from 2012 (a season in which his longest reception was 22 yards).

 

If you apply the same rationale to both the rushing and receiving stats, which I think is only fair in order to not marginalize the OG's impact in the run game while aggrandizing their impact in the passing game, the point seems to lose it's credence.

 

Explain.

Edited December 17, 2013 by thebandit27

[C.Biscuit97]

You seem to want to remove the long runs to bolster the idea that his YPC isn't largely changed, then you proceed to tout that his YPR has increased--seemingly correlating that somehow to the performance of the OL...yet you neglected to mention that he has receptions of 66 and 49 yards (which were both catch-and-runs--one of which came in garbage time). If you were to remove those two catches from the equation, as you did with the long runs of 2012, Johnson's YPR would drop to 5.9, which would be a half-yard drop from 2012 (a season in which his longest reception was 22 yards).

 

If you apply the same rationale to both the rushing and receiving stats, which I think is only fair in order to not marginalize the OG's impact in the run game while aggrandizing their impact in the passing game, the point seems to lose it's credence.

 

Yeah, in a post about EJ, he said he wasn't in favor of eliminating stats. you are what you are. What if we eliminate all of Spiller's 40 yard runs from last year? His ypa would be more comparable to this year, thus, Levitre wasn't as valuable.

 

Some of you are working to hard to prove Levitre's worth. He hasn't had the impact a $8 million G should have, especially when you have another top 10 draft pick G on the other side. Guards don't win and lose you football games. Levitre is much better than what we have, but his difference in this team's record wouldn't be much at all.

[dave mcbride]

You seem to want to remove the long runs to bolster the idea that his YPC isn't largely changed, then you proceed to tout that his YPR has increased--seemingly correlating that somehow to the performance of the OL...yet you neglected to mention that he has receptions of 66 and 49 yards (which were both catch-and-runs--one of which came in garbage time). If you were to remove those two catches from the equation, as you did with the long runs of 2012, Johnson's YPR would drop to 5.9, which would be a half-yard drop from 2012 (a season in which his longest reception was 22 yards).

 

If you apply the same rationale to both the rushing and receiving stats, which I think is only fair in order to not marginalize the OG's impact in the run game while aggrandizing their impact in the passing game, the point seems to lose it's credence.

 

Let's reduce the 66 and 49 yard receptions to 30 yard receptions. Also, let's reduce the garbage-time 80 yard TD run he had against the Bears in 2012 (when they were losing to the Bears by a score of 51-13) to 30 yards. I forgot to include that one. That gets you to 3.89 ypc in 2012.

 

For the season, with the big 2012 rushing gains reduced to 30 yards and the big 2013 receiving gains reduced to 30 yards, here's how it shakes out per touch:

 

2013: 4.23 yards per touch.

2012: 4.19 yards per touch.

 

It's worth noting that Johnson is the ultimate boom-or-bust back and it's hard to judge guard play on his ypc. In the first two games of 2012, he had 21 yards on 19 carries and in the first three games he 45 yards on 33 carries. So I guess I think the whole premise that Johnson's ypc reflects on Levirtre's line play is just way off.

 

Yeah, in a post about EJ, he said he wasn't in favor of eliminating stats. you are what you are. What if we eliminate all of Spiller's 40 yard runs from last year? His ypa would be more comparable to this year, thus, Levitre wasn't as valuable.

 

Some of you are working to hard to prove Levitre's worth. He hasn't had the impact a $8 million G should have, especially when you have another top 10 draft pick G on the other side. Guards don't win and lose you football games. Levitre is much better than what we have, but his difference in this team's record wouldn't be much at all.

 

My point, if you read above, is that a guard has virtually nothing to do with a run play beyond 20 yards or so. I don't see why it's hard to admit that Johnson is the ultimate in skewed run stats. I mean, only 4.5 ypc despite having three 80 yard-plus runs? That's hard to do.

 

Yeah, in a post about EJ, he said he wasn't in favor of eliminating stats. you are what you are. What if we eliminate all of Spiller's 40 yard runs from last year? His ypa would be more comparable to this year, thus, Levitre wasn't as valuable.

 

Some of you are working to hard to prove Levitre's worth. He hasn't had the impact a $8 million G should have, especially when you have another top 10 draft pick G on the other side. Guards don't win and lose you football games. Levitre is much better than what we have, but his difference in this team's record wouldn't be much at all.

I'm not working hard to prove Levitre's worth. I'm working hard to prove that Chris Johnson's ypc is a lousy indicator of Levitre's production.

Edited December 17, 2013 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

You can't possibly be serious about that statement. I'd say a few key fumbles, interceptions, and the continued inability to stop anyone from catching a pass downfield had everything to do with it...

 

Colin Brown was the worst starting offensive lineman in the NFL prior to his release. He personally killed a whole lotta' drives for a team that was playing much better football then than we have been seeing in November and December. Justin Rogers struggled too, but the difference is that injuries thrust him into the lineup. Yeah, I thought that Aqib Talib should have been the Bills top target in free agency but at least they had the requisite 2 quality starters under contract before draft day. Can't say that about the LG position. They brought junk to camp. Colin Brown WON the starting OG job in camp. Legursky got hurt later and has come in and been *better* than Brown but is still a major liability on the OL.

[thebandit27]

Let's reduce the 66 and 49 yard receptions to 30 yard receptions. Also, let's reduce the garbage-time 80 yard TD run he had against the Bears in 2012 (when they were losing to the Bears by a score of 51-13) to 30 yards. I forgot to include that one. That gets you to 3.89 ypc in 2012.

 

For the season, with the big 2012 rushing gains reduced to 30 yards and the big 2013 receiving gains reduced to 30 yards, here's how it shakes out per touch:

 

2013: 4.23 yards per touch.

2012: 4.19 yards per touch.

 

It's worth noting that Johnson is the ultimate boom-or-bust back and it's hard to judge guard play on his ypc. In the first two games of 2012, he had 21 yards on 19 carries and in the first three games he 45 yards on 33 carries. So I guess I think the whole premise that Johnson's ypc reflects on Levirtre's line play is just way off.

 

Now that I agree with (normalized data or not).

[section122]

Except that you have to look at it in future years as you build a roster. The Bills were wise to not overpay for a guard. Where they went wrong was not having an answer once he was gone.

 

How does the thread continue after this post. This is it exactly. Levitre wanted to cash in. The Bills were wise to not overpay him. They were dumb to not address the position adequately.

 

Absolutely. Another point missing here is that a player like Levitre would probably have been a better player this year for the Bills than the Titans given continuity issues. I can only think of Peerless Price, who had a great year in 02 and then cashed in with a team that was a terrible fit for him (Atlanta with Vick). People say that the Bills made out by getting a first for him (McGahee, as it turns out), but in retrospect they would have been better off paying Price to produce in the 03 and 04 seasons -- the last playoff window that team had. It's generally wise to keep your good players who are entering their prime. Price was a good player for them.

As to the bolded - new coaches, new system. What continuity? The uniform?

[dave mcbride]

 

As to the bolded - new coaches, new system. What continuity? The uniform?

 

The players he played between and had presumably established a rapport with.

[Buftex]

Last year's offense with this year's defense. Think about it, Bills fans. Now think about how quick we are to bash EJ. Notice a pattern?

 

 

Agreed... people seem to want to draw a line in the sand as qucikly as possible.

 

Fitz would have been the perfect backup/ mentor to EJ. I laughed at those trying to say Kolb was an upgrade over Fitz. fitz gets every ounce out of physical ability he has out.

 

Yeah, I never for a second thought Kolb would be an upgrade over Fitzpatrick.

[papazoid]

And this gives us 5 all-pro linemen?

 

Honest question: does this even give us one all-pro lineman?

 

Historical question: has there ever been, in the history of the NFL, a single team with 5 all-pro linemen?

 

Current NFL question: which playoff contender has more than one lineman that will be voted all-pro in 2013?

 

 

 

SF - Staley & Iupati

[thebandit27]

SF - Staley & Iupati

 

So one answer to the 4 questions...very well, I'll address the one answer you gave:

 

I highly doubt that they'll both be all-pros in 2013...and that SF line has blocked for a running game that averages 4.2 YPC on 452 attempts; same as Buffalo's 4.2 YPC (on 460 attempts). They've also allowed 34 sacks to Buffalo's 43 (an average of 0.64 sacks/game less than Buffalo). They also rank far behind Buffalo in Power Success to the left, tied in Power Success up the middle, and slightly ahead in Power Success to the right.

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_TOTAL_AVERAGE_YDS&tabSeq=2&season=2013&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&qualified=false

 

The kicker for me is that SF ranks 21st in the NFL in yards/play on offense...

 

I'm not buying the argument.

[C.Biscuit97]

Let's reduce the 66 and 49 yard receptions to 30 yard receptions. Also, let's reduce the garbage-time 80 yard TD run he had against the Bears in 2012 (when they were losing to the Bears by a score of 51-13) to 30 yards. I forgot to include that one. That gets you to 3.89 ypc in 2012.

 

For the season, with the big 2012 rushing gains reduced to 30 yards and the big 2013 receiving gains reduced to 30 yards, here's how it shakes out per touch:

 

2013: 4.23 yards per touch.

2012: 4.19 yards per touch.

 

It's worth noting that Johnson is the ultimate boom-or-bust back and it's hard to judge guard play on his ypc. In the first two games of 2012, he had 21 yards on 19 carries and in the first three games he 45 yards on 33 carries. So I guess I think the whole premise that Johnson's ypc reflects on Levirtre's line play is just way off.

 

 

 

My point, if you read above, is that a guard has virtually nothing to do with a run play beyond 20 yards or so. I don't see why it's hard to admit that Johnson is the ultimate in skewed run stats. I mean, only 4.5 ypc despite having three 80 yard-plus runs? That's hard to do.

 

 

I'm not working hard to prove Levitre's worth. I'm working hard to prove that Chris Johnson's ypc is a lousy indicator of Levitre's production.

 

Sorry man, I just completely disagree with you on this. If the Bills just signed an $8 million/ guard and drafted another in the top 10, how many folks would be happy with their rb dropping almost a ypc in production? The year we signed Dockery, we gave up the fewest sacks in franchise history. Yet people act like Dockery was the worst signing ever? How is this any different? Because it's a guy the Bills lost?

 

The problem wasn't losing Levitre, it was the backup plan. There is a reason very few guards have been picked high in the draft. It's not a position that wins or loses games. The fact that we care so much about G speaks to how bad this team has been.

[dave mcbride]

Sorry man, I just completely disagree with you on this. If the Bills just signed an $8 million/ guard and drafted another in the top 10, how many folks would be happy with their rb dropping almost a ypc in production? The year we signed Dockery, we gave up the fewest sacks in franchise history. Yet people act like Dockery was the worst signing ever? How is this any different? Because it's a guy the Bills lost?

 

The problem wasn't losing Levitre, it was the backup plan. There is a reason very few guards have been picked high in the draft. It's not a position that wins or loses games. The fact that we care so much about G speaks to how bad this team has been.

You're confusing me with other posters here. The only issue I'm addressing is the attempt to make an evaluation of Levitre based on the ypc of a RB who happens to be both one of the fastest players in league history and one of most tackled guys behind the LOS in recent times. And with regard to the ypc drop, see above. You're working with really skewed stats, and it's pretty obvious given the nature of the RB we're discussing (Johnson).

Edited December 17, 2013 by dave mcbride

[Turbosrrgood]

Living here in Banjo land, I get to listen to sports talk every morning about teams I could care less about in all honesty, but it's better than nothing, so I tune in, really just to see what other sports radio shows sound like, compared to ours. So, short story long, the big topic as of late is how Chris Johnson has been struggling, and not able to break runs on the inside this year, and guess whose name came up in conversation? nope.... guess again... yes, they were talking about Andy Levitre, and they were not raving about the guy in any way. In fact, they feel like they may have overpaid for what is being perceived as middling talent. They were concerned about his run blocking mostly, and other names along the offensive line as well, it wasn't a Levitre bash fest, but I was surprised to hear that he wasn't the second coming of Jesus Christ in guard form. From all the comments around here, you's think we let the "all mighty" walk(on water to tennessee at that), and bashed the front office for doing so.

 

Maybe.... Juuuuuust maybe.... our front office was very smart in not over paying for a guard, even if we didn't have a better alternative to replace him. sometimes you have to let a guy walk, especially one who isn't blowing it up on his new team.

 

 

Take this for what it's worth, just thought it would be nice to show a different side to what was perceived as a mistake in not keeping a guy.

 

 

This is exactly why the FO let him go...Levitre didn't seem worth that contract. Actually I had some gripes about him when he was here, and didn't understand the huge hype train he rode. Levitre is a very good pass blocking G, I'll definitely give him credit for that (he was a OT in college)...but he has always been a little undersized and has NOT been a great run blocker. Bigger DT's have eaten him up his whole career. For a run first team the signing seemed a bit questionable, he seems more suited to spread style pass happy offense (Gailey).

 

Having said that, the Bills should have tried to replace him with someone better than Colin Brown or Legursky (who is still the lines biggest problem).

Edited December 17, 2013 by Turbosrrgood

[K-9]

This is exactly why the FO let him go...Levitre didn't seem worth that contract. Actually I had some gripes about him when he was here, and didn't understand the huge hype train he rode. Levitre is a very good pass blocking G, I'll definitely give him credit for that (he was a OT in college)...but he has always been a little undersized and has NOT been a great run blocker. Bigger DT's have eaten him up his whole career. For a run first team the signing seemed a bit questionable, he seems more suited to spread style pass happy offense (Gailey).

 

Having said that, the Bills should have tried to replace him with someone better than Colin Brown or Legursky (who is still the lines biggest problem).

 

Nutshell.

 

Done.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[A Dog Named Kelso]

Colin Brown was the worst starting offensive lineman in the NFL prior to his release. He personally killed a whole lotta' drives for a team that was playing much better football then than we have been seeing in November and December. Justin Rogers struggled too, but the difference is that injuries thrust him into the lineup. Yeah, I thought that Aqib Talib should have been the Bills top target in free agency but at least they had the requisite 2 quality starters under contract before draft day. Can't say that about the LG position. They brought junk to camp. Colin Brown WON the starting OG job in camp. Legursky got hurt later and has come in and been *better* than Brown but is still a major liability on the OL.

 

I am not sure this is correct. I thought that Legursky got hurt in the final preseason game against the Lions. This was why Brown was in there so long.

[thewildrabbit]

Chris Johnson is averaging 3.7 ypc. He averaged 4.5 last year. Good thing the Titans paid Levitre big money and drafted a G in the top 10. Guards don't win games.

As JW pointed out Chris Johnson has been having difficulty's long before this year, and he has a rookie at center.

 

As I pointed out in another thread the Titans owner and 90% of the fans believe Johnson is being utilized the wrong way.

 

The entire NFL puts a long premium on guards. IT is a position that is surrounded by other players. If there is one spot on the oline you can get by with, it's guard. The Bills chose to replace LEvitre badly. But some act like he was some world beater at guard. He was athletic for a guard but was hardly a dominant blocker. Guys like Wood and Glenn are way more important to the oline than a LG.

The Buffalo Bills didn't always put a low value on guards as Chuck Knox drafted Jim Ritcher in the 1st round, 16th overall. He went on to play LG for 15 years. Marv Levy wasn't afraid to draft a guard with a #1 pick, Ruben Brown 1st round, 14 overall and he went on to play LG 12 years, he also went to 8 pro bowls with Buffalo, one with Chicago.

 

Not every recent team puts such a low value at the guard position. BTW, " that getting by with" how has that philosophy worked out for the Bills the last 14 years?

[Dibs]

....

 

Not every recent team puts such a low value at the guard position. BTW, " that getting by with" how has that philosophy worked out for the Bills the last 14 years?

 

Well.....we did draft an OG in the 2nd round 5 years ago.