Good analysis on EJ's errors from Jets game

[TPS]

From Buffalo rumblings. Check slide 15. FJ is breaking free in the middle and begging for the ball...

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2013/9/26/4772898/bills-vs-ravens-2013-ej-manuel-vs-eight-man-pressure-fronts

[davspo]

Very interesting- seems correctable- rookie doing what was pounded into him thus far- hot read and throw.

[Max997]

I can't imagine he kept throwing deep on his own someone had to be telling him to do that

 

The middle seemed open all game but they refused to take advantage of it

[machine gun kelly]

Max- i couldn't agree more. I had no idea why they weren't attacking the middle at around 12 yards or so. when they correct, you expose their next opening. I did not understand the stubborness as an old coach.

 

For once I don't see the defense doing the same. They are adapting, just getting gased as they are on the field too much.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

From Buffalo rumblings. Check slide 15. FJ is breaking free in the middle and begging for the ball...

http://www.buffaloru...pressure-fronts

 

Good read, thanks - and understated is Galliford's point that if Hackett and Manuel don't correct this and come up with a new wrinkle, it will become a template for every other D until we prove it unsuccessful

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Great read. Encouraging that he spotted the single coverage and hot reads immediately. He makes one or two of those throws-- basically like geno smith did-- then we win the game.

[ColdBlueNorth]

I can't imagine he kept throwing deep on his own someone had to be telling him to do that

 

The middle seemed open all game but they refused to take advantage of it

 

That's what I saw...and he has probably been coached to stick to the single-coverage on the outside as it is easier to read, but with the Jets not dropping anyone back into an underneath zone, and committing 8 men to the rush, the receiver with the middle route was open a lot.

 

Not a terrible strategy with a rookie facing constant blitz and not that comfortable yet putting the ball up for grabs across the middle, but EJ has to give his outside receiver against man coverage a fighting chance with a better thrown ball. A draw or two, or some screen plays to slow that rush would have been nice

[Prickly Pete]

I too thought "why aren't they throwing over the middle?" It seemed open...

 

I'm sure the coaches are working on preparing Manuel for this situation. He needs to get these experiences. The Bills will be fortunate to win some games while he gets "schooled". They have at least been competitive so far, and perhaps against some weaker defenses/more favorable matchups, they will win along the way.

[DanInUticaTampa]

I too thought "why aren't they throwing over the middle?" It seemed open...

 

I'm sure the coaches are working on preparing Manuel for this situation. He needs to get these experiences. The Bills will be fortunate to win some games while he gets "schooled". They have at least been competitive so far, and perhaps against some weaker defenses/more favorable matchups, they will win along the way.

 

Agreed. Unfortunately we face a lot of good defenses this year. It will be good experience for him though

[dave mcbride]

Great link. Kudos to Galliford and BR.

[Cash]

Great link. Kudos to Galliford and BR.

 

Agreed. There are a number of issues exposed here.

 

1.) This is it, huh? They put 8 in the box and challenge our receivers, and all we've got is a fly pattern down the sidelines. Almost no variation, which would be fine if what we did worked all the time. Not so much when it failed miserably every time.

 

2.) Whether by design or preference, EJ is consistently ignoring underneath options and throwing the bomb. When this happens on 3rd and medium, this is very Gailey-esque and also Jauron-esque. I like those shots on 1st down, but I prefer lower-risk, lower-reward plays on 3rd down.

 

3.) Obviously EJ played bad on Sunday; we didn't need a breakdown to know that. But it does reinforce that not only was he inaccurate, he was throwing the ball way too early. That was mostly due to pressure, but we should expect teams to keep bringing pressure. And we should expect Colin Brown to continue to get toasted. So the Bills and EJ need to come up with a better plan, or at least some routes that call for quicker throws. EJ does not have time to wait for a WR to make a double-move before throwing.

 

4.) Our targeted WRs were not really beating their CB in the first place. Even good throws would've been anyone's ball in most cases. Part of this might be because of the too-early throws, but it's still cause for concern. We don't really have jump-ball type receivers, we have more the shifty guys. If they can't dust a CB with their speed or a move, they probably shouldn't be targeted on a fly route.

 

5.) Once Rex adjusted by dropping a guy into the short zone, there was NOTHING going on for us. At least on the earlier plays, we could've gotten some nice gains if EJ had gone to the underneath/crossing route. If he tried that on the later plays, it's interception time. (BTW, this is exactly what teams eventually did to Fitz/Gailey to destroy our offense. Many of Fitz's picks came b/c he didn't see the guy dropping into the short zone.) Once Rex made that adjustment, our only winning move was for protection to hold up well enough to give EJ time to throw the deep ball (unlikely), then for EJ to throw a good deep ball (unlikely), then WR to either beat his man or outfight his man for the ball (unlikely). We need some different plays to run against this look, which I guess was the point I made in #1. Since I have now completed the circle, I can end this post.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Excellent analysis. I see multiple issues, all fixable. Those that simply said EJ stunk it up missed the whole story.

 

My observations;

With double move deep routes and early throws because of defensive pressure why does anyone expect that is going to connect?

 

Even with perfect throws are Graham and woods beating their corner and coming down with the jump ball?

 

The routes targeted develop too late for a accurate reasonable percentage pass against that sort of pass rush.

 

Graham is fast but it takes too damn long for him to come open. Waste of speed.

 

Why not curl those outside routes to the sideline occasionally and let EJ use his arm strength to drive it in.

 

West coast uses slants, EJ is tall, Stevie gets open on slants. What am I missing here.

 

The repeated third and long situations, no swing passes.

 

And why keep doing the same hoping you'll hit one, with that much heat coming the throw is going to be early and a good DB play is going to make it and int risk if on target.

 

This week is going to tell us an interesting tale about our young QB

 

 

[The Wiz]

I too thought "why aren't they throwing over the middle?" It seemed open...

 

I'm sure the coaches are working on preparing Manuel for this situation. He needs to get these experiences. The Bills will be fortunate to win some games while he gets "schooled". They have at least been competitive so far, and perhaps against some weaker defenses/more favorable matchups, they will win along the way.

The funny part about that is we did throw over the middle once that I can remember, the TD to Chandler.

[Cash]

The funny part about that is we did throw over the middle once that I can remember, the TD to Chandler.

 

Also a nice gain to Stevie if memory serves. I don't understand the last several Bills' OC's obsession with only throwing short stuff and deep sideline passes. You are allowed to throw between the hashmarks in the NFL, I'm pretty sure.

[Rockinon]

Here is another reason the middle of the field is not being targeted much. I think there are a lot of facets to this team that are a work in progress.

 

http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/bills-nfl/bills-notebook-chandler-manuel-forming-a-connection-20130926?two-bills-drive

[Big Turk]

Not sure the coaches weren't...Marrone said he was very disappointed in his performance...

[gobillsinytown]

From Buffalo rumblings. Check slide 15. FJ is breaking free in the middle and begging for the ball...

http://www.buffaloru...pressure-fronts

 

An excellent read and and textbook example of how to design a defensive scheme against a rookie quarterback.

As far as abandoning the no-huddle: The pace of the no huddle can be slowed. Jim Kelly was quite good at it. When he wanted to kill the clock, they would stay in the no huddle, but he would take a looong time to call the play, and would throw in a lot of "junk" terminology when was calling it.

I think that once EJ gets more comfortable with the system, he'll be able to do the same thing.

[nodnarb]

I'm amazed by the overreaction to one very bad game by a rookie qb. It will happen again, as it does to all rookie qbs who have ever played the game. Both mannings had worse outings in their rookie seasons. It happens. I'm not saying this thread starter is among those reactionary posts...it's great and I appreciate the time it takes to produce that. Very well done. But some of the post game statements were so over the top....

[Orton's Arm]

Agreed. There are a number of issues exposed here.

 

1.) This is it, huh? They put 8 in the box and challenge our receivers, and all we've got is a fly pattern down the sidelines. Almost no variation, which would be fine if what we did worked all the time. Not so much when it failed miserably every time.

 

2.) Whether by design or preference, EJ is consistently ignoring underneath options and throwing the bomb. When this happens on 3rd and medium, this is very Gailey-esque and also Jauron-esque. I like those shots on 1st down, but I prefer lower-risk, lower-reward plays on 3rd down.

 

3.) Obviously EJ played bad on Sunday; we didn't need a breakdown to know that. But it does reinforce that not only was he inaccurate, he was throwing the ball way too early. That was mostly due to pressure, but we should expect teams to keep bringing pressure. And we should expect Colin Brown to continue to get toasted. So the Bills and EJ need to come up with a better plan, or at least some routes that call for quicker throws. EJ does not have time to wait for a WR to make a double-move before throwing.

 

4.) Our targeted WRs were not really beating their CB in the first place. Even good throws would've been anyone's ball in most cases. Part of this might be because of the too-early throws, but it's still cause for concern. We don't really have jump-ball type receivers, we have more the shifty guys. If they can't dust a CB with their speed or a move, they probably shouldn't be targeted on a fly route.

 

5.) Once Rex adjusted by dropping a guy into the short zone, there was NOTHING going on for us. At least on the earlier plays, we could've gotten some nice gains if EJ had gone to the underneath/crossing route. If he tried that on the later plays, it's interception time. (BTW, this is exactly what teams eventually did to Fitz/Gailey to destroy our offense. Many of Fitz's picks came b/c he didn't see the guy dropping into the short zone.) Once Rex made that adjustment, our only winning move was for protection to hold up well enough to give EJ time to throw the deep ball (unlikely), then for EJ to throw a good deep ball (unlikely), then WR to either beat his man or outfight his man for the ball (unlikely). We need some different plays to run against this look, which I guess was the point I made in #1. Since I have now completed the circle, I can end this post.

 

Cash, I have to give you credit. You've written a good post.

 

To expand on your point 4) a little: it's true the targeted WRs weren't getting open against their coverage. But on each of the plays analyzed, EJ was locking in to one guy in particular. He was surrendering all available opportunities, except the one opportunity created by the target he'd locked into.

 

I realize this is normal for a rookie QB; but it's going to greatly limit the offense until or unless it's corrected. Obviously, the whole situation is worsened by the Arena Football League quality blocking of Colin Brown.

[The Wiz]

Also a nice gain to Stevie if memory serves. I don't understand the last several Bills' OC's obsession with only throwing short stuff and deep sideline passes. You are allowed to throw between the hashmarks in the NFL, I'm pretty sure.

Must think our team is too soft to take that hit over the middle. Either way, you're right. They don't target the middle enough.

[KGUNBILLS]

If Hackett is in the booth looking down on all of this, he needs to properly recognize what is being shown to capitalize for the most beneficial gain. I can understand missing a play or two here and there, as he is a first year coach. However to misread, or overlook open space multiple times, is not so forgiving. Any coach must understand the frustration of every Bills fan out there. I am sure as they are being interviewed, at some point it comes up that this team has not been in the playoffs for umpteen years. be mindful of the situation, and don't get caught sleeping at the wheel. Sometimes the smallest details can have the largest impacts. Hopefully this is something the coaching staff as a whole has addressed and won't let opportunity slip away to many more times. I for one am ready for a playoff game, for better or worse.

[KeisterHollow]

I've got a question - if we have a Defensive Coordinator who is so highly touted - and, I mean that sincerely - I like the guy - why didn't he take a moment to call over to Hackett and say, "Nate - Rex is doing this, and Rex is doing that - you can counter that, or this defense is susceptible in this way"? If Hackett couldn't see the vulnerabilities, and didn't adapt, why not use the defensive specialist on the team to tell them what would work against those defenses?

[Dibs]

Why are the previous two posters highlighting Hackett as the problem here? Didn't the article pretty much show that it was bad QB play, often exacerbated by bad OL play that was the problem? Was I missing something in the article?

Edited September 28, 2013 by Dibs

[DanInUticaTampa]

Why are the previous two posters highlighting Hackett as the problem here? Didn't the article pretty much show that it was bad QB play, often exacerbated by bad OL play that was the problem? Was I missing something in the article?

 

I wouldn't call it bad qb play yet. Right now I would just call it rookie qbing. But regardless of the article, the scheme is part of the problem. I think qb play will get better and the scheme will be adjusted. I think we are stuck with crappy guard play until next year though

[Dibs]

I wouldn't call it bad qb play yet. Right now I would just call it rookie qbing. But regardless of the article, the scheme is part of the problem. I think qb play will get better and the scheme will be adjusted. I think we are stuck with crappy guard play until next year though

 

I wasn't meaning to imply anything past the actual facts.....unlike many others who have been posting this week. My error

It was understandable rookie QB play and there is certainly no reason for thinking that he won't improve or can't develop into a great QB.....but it was definitely bad QB play.

 

My point was though(initially) that the article made no reference to play design or scheme apart from showing that the plays highlighted....the plays that EJ seemed to have the most problems with.....likely would have worked if he had enough time to throw and/or he made the correct decisions on the plays.

[KGUNBILLS]

Poor QB play can be attributed to refusal or inexperience to adjust to what is being shown on the field. The best view of what is on the field is from up above. The closer you are to a shelf, the harder it is to tell if it is level. But step back away from it, and the story is more revealing. There are a lot of teams out there that will make adjustments on both offense and defense, to make their opponent change their game plan. EJ certainly has the talent and arm strength that we have been missing for awhile. I would be interested in knowing who is making a lot of the calls on the field? EJ, Hackett, Marrone? I think Keister hollow makes a good point also. Good teams play as just that. A TEAM. Now, Mike Pettine is the best DC we've had in a decade and a half. I am sure he knows all of the Jets flaws. There's no harm in a coach pointing out another teams flaws to another coach. No disrespect toward Pettine at all. I wouldn't trade him for HC Bill Cowher. But winning is a complete team effort. Any one that has played any kind of sport knows that. People will get in front of a camera and sell the party line like a politician, but everyone knows that the proof is in the pudding. Team work = success.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Why are the previous two posters highlighting Hackett as the problem here? Didn't the article pretty much show that it was bad QB play, often exacerbated by bad OL play that was the problem? Was I missing something in the article?

 

On the other hand, is Manuel, coming off a bum knee, really a big running threat in a zone read game? He has 13 carries to 75 by Spiller and Jackson. That's nearly a 6 to 1 ratio and any NFL DC out there (other than Wannstedt) is going to know what to do -- can you say "tendency"? While Manuel may be misreading things, the concept may not be so great if Manuel isn't really going to run the ball for whatever reason.