Good analysis on EJ's errors from Jets game

[TPS]

From Buffalo rumblings. Check slide 15. FJ is breaking free in the middle and begging for the ball...

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2013/9/26/4772898/bills-vs-ravens-2013-ej-manuel-vs-eight-man-pressure-fronts

[davspo]

Very interesting- seems correctable- rookie doing what was pounded into him thus far- hot read and throw.

[Max997]

I can't imagine he kept throwing deep on his own someone had to be telling him to do that

 

The middle seemed open all game but they refused to take advantage of it

[machine gun kelly]

Max- i couldn't agree more. I had no idea why they weren't attacking the middle at around 12 yards or so. when they correct, you expose their next opening. I did not understand the stubborness as an old coach.

 

For once I don't see the defense doing the same. They are adapting, just getting gased as they are on the field too much.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

From Buffalo rumblings. Check slide 15. FJ is breaking free in the middle and begging for the ball...

http://www.buffaloru...pressure-fronts

 

Good read, thanks - and understated is Galliford's point that if Hackett and Manuel don't correct this and come up with a new wrinkle, it will become a template for every other D until we prove it unsuccessful

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Great read. Encouraging that he spotted the single coverage and hot reads immediately. He makes one or two of those throws-- basically like geno smith did-- then we win the game.

[ColdBlueNorth]

I can't imagine he kept throwing deep on his own someone had to be telling him to do that

 

The middle seemed open all game but they refused to take advantage of it

 

That's what I saw...and he has probably been coached to stick to the single-coverage on the outside as it is easier to read, but with the Jets not dropping anyone back into an underneath zone, and committing 8 men to the rush, the receiver with the middle route was open a lot.

 

Not a terrible strategy with a rookie facing constant blitz and not that comfortable yet putting the ball up for grabs across the middle, but EJ has to give his outside receiver against man coverage a fighting chance with a better thrown ball. A draw or two, or some screen plays to slow that rush would have been nice

[Prickly Pete]

I too thought "why aren't they throwing over the middle?" It seemed open...

 

I'm sure the coaches are working on preparing Manuel for this situation. He needs to get these experiences. The Bills will be fortunate to win some games while he gets "schooled". They have at least been competitive so far, and perhaps against some weaker defenses/more favorable matchups, they will win along the way.

[DanInUticaTampa]

I too thought "why aren't they throwing over the middle?" It seemed open...

 

I'm sure the coaches are working on preparing Manuel for this situation. He needs to get these experiences. The Bills will be fortunate to win some games while he gets "schooled". They have at least been competitive so far, and perhaps against some weaker defenses/more favorable matchups, they will win along the way.

 

Agreed. Unfortunately we face a lot of good defenses this year. It will be good experience for him though

[dave mcbride]

Great link. Kudos to Galliford and BR.

[Cash]

Great link. Kudos to Galliford and BR.

 

Agreed. There are a number of issues exposed here.

 

1.) This is it, huh? They put 8 in the box and challenge our receivers, and all we've got is a fly pattern down the sidelines. Almost no variation, which would be fine if what we did worked all the time. Not so much when it failed miserably every time.

 

2.) Whether by design or preference, EJ is consistently ignoring underneath options and throwing the bomb. When this happens on 3rd and medium, this is very Gailey-esque and also Jauron-esque. I like those shots on 1st down, but I prefer lower-risk, lower-reward plays on 3rd down.

 

3.) Obviously EJ played bad on Sunday; we didn't need a breakdown to know that. But it does reinforce that not only was he inaccurate, he was throwing the ball way too early. That was mostly due to pressure, but we should expect teams to keep bringing pressure. And we should expect Colin Brown to continue to get toasted. So the Bills and EJ need to come up with a better plan, or at least some routes that call for quicker throws. EJ does not have time to wait for a WR to make a double-move before throwing.

 

4.) Our targeted WRs were not really beating their CB in the first place. Even good throws would've been anyone's ball in most cases. Part of this might be because of the too-early throws, but it's still cause for concern. We don't really have jump-ball type receivers, we have more the shifty guys. If they can't dust a CB with their speed or a move, they probably shouldn't be targeted on a fly route.

 

5.) Once Rex adjusted by dropping a guy into the short zone, there was NOTHING going on for us. At least on the earlier plays, we could've gotten some nice gains if EJ had gone to the underneath/crossing route. If he tried that on the later plays, it's interception time. (BTW, this is exactly what teams eventually did to Fitz/Gailey to destroy our offense. Many of Fitz's picks came b/c he didn't see the guy dropping into the short zone.) Once Rex made that adjustment, our only winning move was for protection to hold up well enough to give EJ time to throw the deep ball (unlikely), then for EJ to throw a good deep ball (unlikely), then WR to either beat his man or outfight his man for the ball (unlikely). We need some different plays to run against this look, which I guess was the point I made in #1. Since I have now completed the circle, I can end this post.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Excellent analysis. I see multiple issues, all fixable. Those that simply said EJ stunk it up missed the whole story.

 

My observations;

With double move deep routes and early throws because of defensive pressure why does anyone expect that is going to connect?

 

Even with perfect throws are Graham and woods beating their corner and coming down with the jump ball?

 

The routes targeted develop too late for a accurate reasonable percentage pass against that sort of pass rush.

 

Graham is fast but it takes too damn long for him to come open. Waste of speed.

 

Why not curl those outside routes to the sideline occasionally and let EJ use his arm strength to drive it in.

 

West coast uses slants, EJ is tall, Stevie gets open on slants. What am I missing here.

 

The repeated third and long situations, no swing passes.

 

And why keep doing the same hoping you'll hit one, with that much heat coming the throw is going to be early and a good DB play is going to make it and int risk if on target.

 

This week is going to tell us an interesting tale about our young QB

 

 

[The Wiz]

I too thought "why aren't they throwing over the middle?" It seemed open...

 

I'm sure the coaches are working on preparing Manuel for this situation. He needs to get these experiences. The Bills will be fortunate to win some games while he gets "schooled". They have at least been competitive so far, and perhaps against some weaker defenses/more favorable matchups, they will win along the way.

The funny part about that is we did throw over the middle once that I can remember, the TD to Chandler.

[Cash]

The funny part about that is we did throw over the middle once that I can remember, the TD to Chandler.

 

Also a nice gain to Stevie if memory serves. I don't understand the last several Bills' OC's obsession with only throwing short stuff and deep sideline passes. You are allowed to throw between the hashmarks in the NFL, I'm pretty sure.

[Rockinon]

Here is another reason the middle of the field is not being targeted much. I think there are a lot of facets to this team that are a work in progress.

 

http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/bills-nfl/bills-notebook-chandler-manuel-forming-a-connection-20130926?two-bills-drive

[Big Turk]

Not sure the coaches weren't...Marrone said he was very disappointed in his performance...

[gobillsinytown]

From Buffalo rumblings. Check slide 15. FJ is breaking free in the middle and begging for the ball...

http://www.buffaloru...pressure-fronts

 

An excellent read and and textbook example of how to design a defensive scheme against a rookie quarterback.

As far as abandoning the no-huddle: The pace of the no huddle can be slowed. Jim Kelly was quite good at it. When he wanted to kill the clock, they would stay in the no huddle, but he would take a looong time to call the play, and would throw in a lot of "junk" terminology when was calling it.

I think that once EJ gets more comfortable with the system, he'll be able to do the same thing.

[nodnarb]

I'm amazed by the overreaction to one very bad game by a rookie qb. It will happen again, as it does to all rookie qbs who have ever played the game. Both mannings had worse outings in their rookie seasons. It happens. I'm not saying this thread starter is among those reactionary posts...it's great and I appreciate the time it takes to produce that. Very well done. But some of the post game statements were so over the top....

[Orton's Arm]

Agreed. There are a number of issues exposed here.

 

1.) This is it, huh? They put 8 in the box and challenge our receivers, and all we've got is a fly pattern down the sidelines. Almost no variation, which would be fine if what we did worked all the time. Not so much when it failed miserably every time.

 

2.) Whether by design or preference, EJ is consistently ignoring underneath options and throwing the bomb. When this happens on 3rd and medium, this is very Gailey-esque and also Jauron-esque. I like those shots on 1st down, but I prefer lower-risk, lower-reward plays on 3rd down.

 

3.) Obviously EJ played bad on Sunday; we didn't need a breakdown to know that. But it does reinforce that not only was he inaccurate, he was throwing the ball way too early. That was mostly due to pressure, but we should expect teams to keep bringing pressure. And we should expect Colin Brown to continue to get toasted. So the Bills and EJ need to come up with a better plan, or at least some routes that call for quicker throws. EJ does not have time to wait for a WR to make a double-move before throwing.

 

4.) Our targeted WRs were not really beating their CB in the first place. Even good throws would've been anyone's ball in most cases. Part of this might be because of the too-early throws, but it's still cause for concern. We don't really have jump-ball type receivers, we have more the shifty guys. If they can't dust a CB with their speed or a move, they probably shouldn't be targeted on a fly route.

 

5.) Once Rex adjusted by dropping a guy into the short zone, there was NOTHING going on for us. At least on the earlier plays, we could've gotten some nice gains if EJ had gone to the underneath/crossing route. If he tried that on the later plays, it's interception time. (BTW, this is exactly what teams eventually did to Fitz/Gailey to destroy our offense. Many of Fitz's picks came b/c he didn't see the guy dropping into the short zone.) Once Rex made that adjustment, our only winning move was for protection to hold up well enough to give EJ time to throw the deep ball (unlikely), then for EJ to throw a good deep ball (unlikely), then WR to either beat his man or outfight his man for the ball (unlikely). We need some different plays to run against this look, which I guess was the point I made in #1. Since I have now completed the circle, I can end this post.

 

Cash, I have to give you credit. You've written a good post.

 

To expand on your point 4) a little: it's true the targeted WRs weren't getting open against their coverage. But on each of the plays analyzed, EJ was locking in to one guy in particular. He was surrendering all available opportunities, except the one opportunity created by the target he'd locked into.

 

I realize this is normal for a rookie QB; but it's going to greatly limit the offense until or unless it's corrected. Obviously, the whole situation is worsened by the Arena Football League quality blocking of Colin Brown.

[The Wiz]

Also a nice gain to Stevie if memory serves. I don't understand the last several Bills' OC's obsession with only throwing short stuff and deep sideline passes. You are allowed to throw between the hashmarks in the NFL, I'm pretty sure.

Must think our team is too soft to take that hit over the middle. Either way, you're right. They don't target the middle enough.