Miami writer: Stevie Johnson's a No. 2

[mitchmurraydowntown]

Da'Rick is going to be a 1A to Stevie's 1B / Woods' 1C,

[Rockinon]

Da'Rick is going to be a 1A to Stevie's 1B / Woods' 1C,

A little early for that prediction. Graham is making some noise so far too. There is so much more talent at the position than last year though it will be interesting. Don't forget CJ and Fred have done some good stuff catching the ball too. Add in TEs and and a running attack, this offense could really be smokin'....

[Ramius]

So, you think they are going to tell him to clean up his routes and get open less often?

 

Statistically, SJ13 is a #2...a very good # 2. But, the reaons he's a "#2" are the same, IMHO, that make him a #1:

 

1.) No legitimate threat across the field from him...or on the field at the same time unless Spiller of FJ are spread out.

 

2.) No #1 QB throwing him the ball...ever

 

3.) Has played through a nagging groin injury for 2 years

 

4) a combo of 1 and 2 as the handcuffs he's had on, while still breaking 1,000 yards for 3 straight years.

 

This is wrong. Statistically speaking, Stevie is a #1. If we go by your definitions, there's only about 5-8 "true #1 WRs" in the league.

[gumby]

You guys are ranking the Bills receivers of the past. Where's the love for Bobby Chandler, Elbert Dubenion, Jerry Butler?

[Nuncha]

I find it comical that he's not considered a number 1. It sounds like some of the posters here that claim he's not a number 1 because he doesn't put up Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson numbers.

 

Andre Reed was a number 1, he should be in the HOF and Stevie is quickly entrenching himself as possibly the best Bills receiver in history. When all is said and done, I have no doubts he will be.

Don't think he will be in Buffalo long enough to come close to passing Reed.

[Sumin]

I personally think the whole #1 and #2 system is pretty inane. If you ask me, a team's #1 receiver is their most dependable, most-rounded, and most clutch performer. Stevie Johnson is by far the best wide receiver on this team as he has consistently showed that. In some ways, one could have also considered Wes Welker to be New England's #1 WR even though he primarily lined up in the slot.

 

Your best WR's will start on the field, regardless of position. As Ramius put it, Stevie's stats have shown that he is a true #1 receiver.

[OCinBuffalo]

Here's some real stats on this: http://www.footballo...rs.com/stats/wr

 

The best way to understand these sites: Imagine an imaginary, average WR, on 2nd down and 10 from his teams 35 yard line. This average WR will do X. In comparison Steve Johnson, per the site above, will do X...-5.3% Steve is #44 on that list, and they only bothered ranking 86 WRs.

 

But take heed, the first disclaimer of this analytic is:

We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.

 

The data bears this out. You see WRs, more than 1, over represented relative to their QB. It's relatively easy to see that, even though they haven't controlled for it yet, QB play has a massive effect on WR outcomes. In fact, when and if they do develop a control for it, I'd like to see it, because I doubt it will be 100% sound.

Edited May 15, 2013 by OCinBuffalo

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

 

So, you think they are going to tell him to clean up his routes and get open less often?

 

I'm just saying its worth watching. I guarentee there are personalities in the coaching ranks that don't give latitude in how routes are executed. If it inhibits a player's production then, well that player is not suited for the system.

 

I have no clue how Marrone and Hackett are on this stuff, but I am betting Belicheck would never allow "freestyle route running as long as you get to the spot...."

 

We'll see what happens with SJ13. I hope he works in this O... I have his jersey

[billsfan89]

Anyone that says this simply doesn't know what they're watching (if they're watching at all). Pure and simple facts:

 

- Johnson has put up top 20 #s in the last 3 seasons with below-average QB play (in fact, in 2010, he was 11th in the league in both receptions and yards)

- Johnson is one of the only WRs in the game to get the best of guys like Revis (on more than one occasion) and Sherman

- Johnson is widely-considered one of--if not the--premier route-runners in the game today

 

Now, please feel free to provide any and all evidence that says he's not a #1 WR...

 

Exactly people seem to always think that if you are not AJ Green or Meagtron then you aren't a number one receiver.

[Coach Tuesday]

This is total b.s. I don't believe for a second that someone in Miami writes.

[Bufcomments]

I find it comical that he's not considered a number 1. It sounds like some of the posters here that claim he's not a number 1 because he doesn't put up Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson numbers.

 

Andre Reed was a number 1, he should be in the HOF and Stevie is quickly entrenching himself as possibly the best Bills receiver in history. When all is said and done, I have no doubts he will be.

Age may be a factor in this post.

 

What about Bobby Chandler, Frank Lewis, Jerry Bulter, Eric Moulds.

 

I put all these guys above Stevie, and I like Stevie alot but please give me a break.

[Captain Hindsight]

I really want to know what Todd McShay thinks

[Webster Guy]

Stevie has basically the same yards per game average as Larry Fitzgerald for the last two years.

 

Maybe Larry is a number 2 receiver as well.....

 

for that matter, anyone but AJ Green and Calvin Johnson are all number 2's

 

i wanna go #2 on that article

[CardinalScotts]

Da'Rick is going to be a 1A to Stevie's 1B / Woods' 1C,

 

yes that's been the problem not Fitz AS much as no other legit NFL wideouts on the roster - easy to take a guy away and he's still put up good numbers

[Peace Frog]

I would say the #1 receiver, in the classic sense, is the one who is targeted the most by the QB. It doesn't matter if they play slot or outside.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I would also like to add that this whole discusion about number 1's is a big pile of number 2...

[mrags]

 

 

Why is Stevie a number 1? Because he puts up similar or better numbers than a WR did in a completely different era where WR stats were overall lower than today?

 

I love Stevie, but here are some important facts that can not be ignored.

 

1. He compiled a LOT of stats in meaningless points of games or against very weak teams. He way too often was a ghost for large stretches of games, especially key points where we were still in them.

 

2. He does not go up and fight for balls and generally is only open when he is actually open...not a guy you can throw it up for generally or that fights for position.

 

3. He has come up short in several key moments in games, and on 3 occasions off the top of my head he dropped easy passes to either outright win the game or extend the final drive that outright lost us a game.

 

4. He drops too many passes overall. T.O. dropped a lot of passes, but he made up for it where he could take over games. Stevie does not go out and take over games as he has neither the hands, size, or speed to do so. His production comes from being an excellent route runner.

 

That being said, he is talented and I liked him since we drafted him and still do. But he is not a number 1 WR and would not be considered that on many teams around the league. He was a #1 here because he was the best we had. And no, you don't have to be Fitz or Calvin to be a #1 guy, but when you don't fight for balls, never take over games, drop too many passes, come up short in key moments, don't have game breaking speed, and disappear way too often then I think it's very fair to say he is not a true number 1 guy.

 

Now, all that being said, QB play has also been atrocious, so maybe if we can finally get the QB situation settled he may make more if a consistent impact. Right now, I still think Woods has a shot of eventually becoming the #1 guy if he lives up to his potential.

ill point out that you should read what Section122 wrote. It's spot on. If you really think Stevie is not in the top 32 WRs in this league then I think your watching a different game all together.

 

Don't think he will be in Buffalo long enough to come close to passing Reed.

really? How long was the contract he just signed last season?

 

Stevie has basically the same yards per game average as Larry Fitzgerald for the last two years.

 

Maybe Larry is a number 2 receiver as well.....

 

for that matter, anyone but AJ Green and Calvin Johnson are all number 2's

 

i wanna go #2 on that article

thank you for this.

[Alphadawg7]

ill point out that you should read what Section122 wrote. It's spot on. If you really think Stevie is not in the top 32 WRs in this league then I think your watching a different game all together.

 

No offense, but that was a cop out post where you didn't address any of my points. And this point you just wrote is silly and assumes that every one of the 32 teams has a true number 1 dominant WR, which they don't. Whether or not he is one of the top 32 WRs also doesn't mean he is a true dependable #1 WR.

 

Again, see my points in my original post. He has been literally a ghost and invisible in many important games and situations, dropped key passes to literally lose us games or kill final drives, gained too much of his production in meaningless blow outs, and most importantly does not fight for position or balls. He is however an excellent route runner.

 

Again, he is a good player no doubt, but until he stops coming up short in key moments, stops dropping so many passes, stops being a non factor too often, I just can't say he is a true number 1. Adding to that, he has atrocious QB play, so he gets some benefit of the doubt and hope he further elevates his game.

Edited May 15, 2013 by Alphadawg7

[truth on hold]

This opinion is invalidated from the start because IMO this whole "#1, #2 etc etc WR" is an antiquated way of looking at WR's these days. Whose #1 between White and Jones in ATL? When Gronk and Welker were both on the field, who was Brady's #1 receiving target? It's a pass first league and every WR is expected to get balls thrown his way and come down with them. Read progressions don't follow a rigid "#1 to #2 to #3" pattern. its based firstly on who is most open relative to coverage

Edited May 15, 2013 by Joe_the_6_pack

[mrags]

 

 

No offense, but that was a cop out post where you didn't address any of my points. And this point you just wrote is silly and assumes that every one of the 32 teams has a true number 1 dominant WR, which they don't. Whether or not he is one of the top 32 WRs also doesn't mean he is a true dependable #1 WR.

 

Again, see my points in my original post. He has been literally a ghost and invisible in many important games and situations, dropped key passes to literally lose us games or kill final drives, gained too much of his production in meaningless blow outs, and most importantly does not fight for position or balls. He is however an excellent route runner.

 

Again, he is a good player no doubt, but until he stops coming up short in key moments, stops dropping so many passes, stops being a non factor too often, I just can't say he is a true number 1. Adding to that, he has atrocious QB play, so he gets some benefit of the doubt and hope he further elevates his game.

WRs drop balls. It happens all the time. Calvin Johnson threw one down in the end zone that cost the Lions a game. Desean Jackson dropped one less than a yard before the goal line to cost them a game. TO, Ocho Cinco, Moss, etc... They have all dropped passes. It happens.

 

Not all "True #1" WRs have the ability to "go up and fight for balls". Some are finesse runners. Ask Marvin Harrison, Chris Carter, Ark Monk. Or just go and watch their play. Mike Wallace, Desean Jackson if you want to get all bothered that I refuse to bring up current players. Of course there's many more, but its 2am and I'm tired right now.

 

If you want to talk about games we lost because Stevie has cost us those games I'd like to know exactly what games your thinking about. Surely the Pitt game, then there's the Jets game where he could have had a TD pass, and after that, I'm not really sure what "win/loss" moments your thinking of that have specifically come down on Stevie. But I can point out just as many times where he has broke. Big plays for TDs to help vault the team into a win. The Pats comeback. The Raiders comeback. The Bengals comeback.

 

We're about even of you really want to bring up the good vs the bad and that's generous on your end IMO.

 

He's the only Buffalo Bill to ever have 2, and then 3 straight 1,000 yard seasons. How many times did Moulds or Evans, Reed, Lofton, Beebe, Price ever get 10 TDs? If also like to add that every single QBs that threw all of those WRs balls were better than what Stevie has had to live with in his short career.

 

At the end of his career as a Bill he will be the most accomplished WR to wear a Bills uniform. Is he yet? Of course not, but he's in his way.

 

Is is a cop out to say that there is 31 other #1 WRs in the league? Technically? No. It's a fact. Stevie is paid to be a #1, he is our #1 option on the team, he is statistically better over the last 3 years than any other Bills WR. He is statistically on par with the top 15 or so WRs in the league.

 

Is he Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Fitzgerald, Moss? No, of course not, all of those guys are first ballot HOFers without question. I'd dare you to even mention Mike Wallace's name in the company of those other WRs and not be laughed at. The other WRs mentioned are all dominant in every way. They are "complete" WRs. But that doesn't mean there aren't other "#1 WRs" just because they don't have the same qualities.