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Romney opens 5 point lead over Obama


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That doesn't follow any type of logic. We knew that the Taliban harbored terrorists, so we struck. I think any sitting president would have committed to that war. Iraq is debatable, but not Afghanistan.

Pollyanna,

 

When you get back from picking flowers google a little thing called the "Los Gatos foreign policy".

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Pollyanna,

 

When you get back from picking flowers google a little thing called the "Los Gatos foreign policy".

It took me to a few of your posts, one with a dead link and another with a link that took me to a site with a ton of other links. I am sure the site installed all kinds of nice stuff on my hard drive......

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No doubt, that in the most recent CNN and FOX polling, numbers are trending towards Obama. For some reason the daily tracking polls of GALLUP and Rasmussen are fairly consistent with where they have been. My guess is that the truth is somewhere in between. Having said that, recent polling in Virginia and Colorado seem to be moving back towards Romney a little bit. In any case, the dynamics will have to change, if he continues to play small ball with O, they will lose.

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No doubt, that in the most recent CNN and FOX polling, numbers are trending towards Obama. For some reason the daily tracking polls of GALLUP and Rasmussen are fairly consistent with where they have been. My guess is that the truth is somewhere in between. Having said that, recent polling in Virginia and Colorado seem to be moving back towards Romney a little bit. In any case, the dynamics will have to change, if he continues to play small ball with O, they will lose.

It's the Olympics lull. Big ball will come soon enough.

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If there is a silver lining, these polls are just RV polls rather than LV. Consistently polls have been showing that the Conservative base is considerably more jazzed to vote than the D's.

 

Here is another poll from yesterday that came to the same conclusion.

 

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/research/2012-voter-enthusiasm-favors-republicans

 

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Republican-leaning voting blocs are more enthusiastic to vote this November, which could be the deciding factor in a turnout election. As we head into the final campaign stretch, President Obama faces the unwelcoming reality that he must close the voter enthusiasm gap and improve his performance among key voting subgroups if he is to be successful in his bid for reelection.

 

When looking at those voters who say they are extremely enthusiastic to vote in the presidential election, Republicans hold a double-digit advantage over Democrats, 62 to 49 percent, and the subgroups most likely to support Governor Romney register higher enthusiasm than those backing President Obama, according to our most recent survey July 9-12.

 

Reliable Republican demographics, such as Protestants, Evangelicals, and white men, score above the median rate of those who are extremely enthusiastic to turnout and far out pace several traditional Democratic voting groups, including Hispanic voters, unmarried, and young voters (18-to-29-year-olds). African-American voters are the exception among Obama supporters and register enthusiasm on par with Republicans.

 

The higher enthusiasm among Republicans overall will help shrink the traditional Democratic identification advantage on Election Day, which stood at seven points during the 2008 wave election. As a result, national polling with a Democratic voter edge greater than the 2008 margin should be viewed with skepticism.

 

In addition to the enthusiasm gap, President Obama is underperforming among key members of his coalition. He holds 53 percent support on the ballot among voters with household income less than $50k, down seven points from 2008. President Obama swept young voters (18-to-29-year-olds) by 66 to 32 percent in 2008, but this margin has been nearly cut in half, 53 to 35 percent. Typically a swing voting bloc in presidential elections, Catholic voters are clearly up for grabs, 47 to 47 percent.

 

Among subgroups that President Obama is likely to lose, he’s doing so by a wider margin. The president trails among white men 61 to 30 percent, a 15 point swing compared to 2008 (57 to 41 percent). His support among white non-college educated voters is also down eight points.

 

It will be difficult for President Obama to close these gaps by winning the undecided voters outright. Nearly every poll puts the presidential contest in a statistical dead heat, with President Obama and Governor Romney battling to win a small percentage of undecided voters. Resurgent Republic’s most recent survey found only five percent of voters nationally are undecided on the presidential ballot, while that figure shrinks to three percent in the battleground states.

 

Conventional wisdom dictates that undecided voters do not split evenly, and the overwhelmingly negative political climate is a significant hurdle for President Obama in bucking this trend. Strong majorities of voters still believe the country is on the wrong track, and even more feel like the economy is stuck in a recession.

 

After four years of President Obama’s economic polices, undecided voters are receptive to the message that it’s time to try something else. So as of today, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where President Obama wins more of the undecided bloc than Governor Romney. It seems President Obama’s best outcome among these voters is to fight Governor Romney to a draw, or even hope they don’t vote, both of which heighten the importance of base turnout and the president’s enthusiasm deficit.

 

In addition, President Obama’s reelection campaign should not depend on Independent voters to make up the lost votes due to lack of enthusiasm and ballot underperformance. Swing voters voted for Republican candidates for Congress by an 18-point margin in 2010, delivering in the process an unequivocal rebuke of President Obama’s agenda. President Obama’s job approval, handling of the economy, personal approval and ballot support among swing voters are all stuck in the low 40’s. Having won a majority of Independents in 2008, President Obama now trails his previous performance by 12 points.

 

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And again, undecideds will mostly go against the incumbent. And again, Romney's Veep choice hasn't had a chance to play pitbull and go after Barry and Joe.

 

And again Mitt will probably pick some Los Gatos for VP. If he picks Pawlenty he is basically saying he DOES NOT WANT to be president. That guy is a WUSS.

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From what polls I have been looking at Obama seems to have a lead of 5-9 points and at worst his lead is 3 points. I don't know of too many that show Romney with a lead. Its sad that the GOP couldn't have a better challenger than Romney, Romney is much like John Kerry a terrible pick from a mediocre field. Obama is going to likely be reelected, what I would really like to see is Gary Johnson get into the debates and get third parties a voice.

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From what polls I have been looking at Obama seems to have a lead of 5-9 points and at worst his lead is 3 points. I don't know of too many that show Romney with a lead. Its sad that the GOP couldn't have a better challenger than Romney, Romney is much like John Kerry a terrible pick from a mediocre field. Obama is going to likely be reelected, what I would really like to see is Gary Johnson get into the debates and get third parties a voice.

 

Gallup and Rasmussen are the only ones with daily trackers who have much larger sampling sizes and they don't agree with your analysis.

Edited by WorldTraveller
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From what polls I have been looking at Obama seems to have a lead of 5-9 points and at worst his lead is 3 points. I don't know of too many that show Romney with a lead. Its sad that the GOP couldn't have a better challenger than Romney, Romney is much like John Kerry a terrible pick from a mediocre field. Obama is going to likely be reelected, what I would really like to see is Gary Johnson get into the debates and get third parties a voice.

 

 

The polls can't be believed. I'll tell you this, if the polls show Obama ahead by 3-4 percentage points a week before the election, get ready for Mitt, McConnell and Boehner to be giving you your morning news.

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How's your crusade to have a recount for the 2008 election going?

What? No seriously...what the F are you talking about? :blink::lol:

 

Edit:

Even ...lybob knows better than to bring the incoherent to me. To which crusade do you refer? The only crusades I have ever been on:

1. Crushing the "we could have traded down because somebody on the internet, who has no sources whatsoever, said so" people.

2. Crushing the "I'm too dumb to realize that Dan Snyder is tampering with Aaron Schobel, and then he got busted for doing just that with Lance Briggs" people.

3. Crushing the "I am for gay marriage, and demand you recognize my moral superiority, because I am too dumb to recognize that this issue is a political one used to divide the country and try to get votes, and not a moral one....as has been consistently demonstrated ever since the Congressional beating the Democrats took in 2002 and 2004, and has been futher reinforced(as if we needed it) by Obama's recent "I need the gay/Hollywood money, so I will evolve" change of position on it. That anyone would continue to think of gay marriage as a moral/civil rights issue given the consistent bad behavior of the Democrats on it...just proves how much of an unmitigated moron they are.

 

Now, if you want to accuse me of those crusades...I won't deny any of it.

 

But this? Ridiculous.

Edited by OCinBuffalo
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No doubt, that in the most recent CNN and FOX polling, numbers are trending towards Obama. For some reason the daily tracking polls of GALLUP and Rasmussen are fairly consistent with where they have been. My guess is that the truth is somewhere in between. Having said that, recent polling in Virginia and Colorado seem to be moving back towards Romney a little bit. In any case, the dynamics will have to change, if he continues to play small ball with O, they will lose.

 

No one should use individual polls as each has characteristics that push results one way or the other. Gallup has a good rep among experts (R&D), while only GOP partisans use Rasmussen for anything other justifying their viewpoint on message boards.

 

It's best to aggregate all the polls and weigh them based on histrorical data. See Nate Silver's universally acclaimed 538.com. Only the partisan left and right want to dismiss/praise Silver's work to suit their narrow worldview.

 

 

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Id guess Ryan helps with Independents nationally, and kills Florida for Romney. Team Obama will run Ryan's positions on Social Security and Medicare nonstop in Florida.

 

Agreed. Florida could be toast, and perhaps NC? I'm very curious about the Romney strategy. Obviously, they now have WI as a must get and I assume the same goes for Iowa, but I wonder how else they think Ryan could get Romeny over the top. Guess: CO, NV, VA, NH as well. I suppose they assumed Portman would not get Ohio, which would have been a much easier way to 270.

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Id guess Ryan helps with Independents nationally, and kills Florida for Romney. Team Obama will run Ryan's positions on Social Security and Medicare nonstop in Florida.

Agreed. Florida could be toast, and perhaps NC? I'm very curious about the Romney strategy. Obviously, they now have WI as a must get and I assume the same goes for Iowa, but I wonder how else they think Ryan could get Romeny over the top. Guess: CO, NV, VA, NH as well. I suppose they assumed Portman would not get Ohio, which would have been a much easier way to 270.

 

I wouldn't be so quick to follow the "Florida is toast" crowd.

 

I work with seniors every day, and they are well aware that Medicare and SS have to be reformed or they will go bust.

 

Those who will believe the "GOP is going to take away your medicare" scare ads would have voted dem anyway.

 

Those ads are run EVERY election , no matter who is the VP pick.

 

I have a little more faith in the electorate than that.

 

.

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I wouldn't be so quick to follow the "Florida is toast" crowd.

 

I work with seniors every day, and they are well aware that Medicare and SS have to be reformed or they will go bust.

 

Those who will believe the "GOP is going to take away your medicare" scare ads would have voted dem anyway.

 

Those ads are run EVERY election , no matter who is the VP pick.

 

I have a little more faith in the electorate than that.

 

.

 

Ah, the old "faith in the electorate" comment. Oh, please.

 

Anyway, Connie Mack called Ryan's budget "a joke" and Ryan's proposals are/were very unpopular in FL. Thats just reality. But, hey, there is time turn it around but I wouldnt be surprised if Obama's folks feel a little easier about FL.

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Id guess Ryan helps with Independents nationally, and kills Florida for Romney. Team Obama will run Ryan's positions on Social Security and Medicare nonstop in Florida.

The selection of Ryan doesn't swing any voters or help with any states. Wisconsin is a true blue state

 

It's an idealogical pick and is setting the stage IMO for the Republicans agenda in Obama's second term and possibly setting Ryan up over Rubio as the party favorite for 2016 nominee

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Id guess Ryan helps with Independents nationally, and kills Florida for Romney. Team Obama will run Ryan's positions on Social Security and Medicare nonstop in Florida.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. I live in Florida and I saw the demagoguing that crist tried to lay on Marco Rubio for his stance on the need to reform social security and his embrace of Medicare. Rubio spoke to Floridian seniors with sincerity, and as a result seniors overwhelmingly supported Rubio. Also, did you hear Ryan's speech? He spoke convincly about leaving a better future for the next generation, he spoke with clarity regarding the debt and it's consequences and that is something seniors care about.

 

I believe he will be a net positive for Florida and I say that because I believe he can communicate this with more conviction and effectiveness than anyone.

 

 

 

Ah, the old "faith in the electorate" comment. Oh, please.

 

Anyway, Connie Mack called Ryan's budget "a joke" and Ryan's proposals are/were very unpopular in FL. Thats just reality. But, hey, there is time turn it around but I wouldnt be surprised if Obama's folks feel a little easier about FL.

No it's not, Rubio fully embraced Ryan's budget and he crushed crist

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Totally different dynamic.

It is a different dynamic, but the larger point remains, which is if you are honest and straightforward about the difficult choices we face and ffer solutions then you can get rewarded for doing so, and the big thing they have going for them is that there is no better communicator on this issue, than Paul Ryan .

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It is a different dynamic, but the larger point remains, which is if you are honest and straightforward about the difficult choices we face and ffer solutions then you can get rewarded for doing so, and the big thing they have going for them is that there is no better communicator on this issue, than Paul Ryan .

 

You mean the guy who proposed what voters dislike? It is interesting that neither Romney nor Ryan mentioned it today.

Edited by Max Fischer
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It will be discussed

 

Barring him burning down the building, I am voting for Romney but I do not think he will win the election or Florida. Love Ryan and hope the vetting comes up clean so he can run in 2016.

 

To respond to a point above, I seriously doubt Wisconson is in play.

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Barring him burning down the building, I am voting for Romney but I do not think he will win the election or Florida. Love Ryan and hope the vetting comes up clean so he can run in 2016.

 

To respond to a point above, I seriously doubt Wisconson is in play.

Didn't you say a while back that you've never voted for the winner?

 

If we took up a collection, could you please vote for Obama? ;)

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Didn't you say a while back that you've never voted for the winner?

 

If we took up a collection, could you please vote for Obama? ;)

 

I've said for a while that Obama wins this easily and yes, I've never voted for the presidential winner. The polls bear this out...Magox/World is the poll master and can find gems in the polls that show little signs for Romney but even he has to concede that the trend is for Obama right now. The VP pick should give Romney a temporary boost in a few states. We will see if there is a bigger effect. Usually isn't. Romney chose a guy the country needs, but not necessarily one that will help him win.

Edited by John Adams
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I've said for a while that Obama wins this easily and yes, I've never voted for the presidential winner. The polls bear this out...Magox/World is the poll master and can find gems in the polls that show little signs for Romney but even he has to concede that the trend is for Obama right now. The VP pick should give Romney a temporary boost. We will see. Romney chose a guy the country needs, but not necessarily one that will help him win.

I do hope you are wrong about the 1st part, though I wouldn't put it past my fellow Americans to prove you're right. The bolded part I disagree with. I don't think the country needs Ryan in the VP slot because he can't DO anything there. In his current role, he can be a voice of sanity trying to lower spending and get entitlements to a point where they aren't forced to insolvency. For that reason, I'm not happy that he's the VP candidate. I would have preferred to see one of the Governors being touted as the VP nominee. (Probably leaning towards the NM Governor, but didn't know enough about her to say she was definitely my choice.) And I do think that he helps Romney more than hurts him; he will bolster Romney's fiscal conservative credentials, inspire Tea Partiers, and is pretty much the anti-Palin, and will likely help with Independents even though he probably makes FL tougher for Romney to win.

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Three months to go before the Elections. So it is kind of early to tell. But will end up in Fla and Ohio as well as Pa.

PA is a solid blue state. It will only swing red in a strong Republican year. Wisconsion is also a reliable Democratic state

 

This years election will be held in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Virginia. If any of those states goes for Obama it's over. If the election spills over into Colorado or New Hampshire then Obama might start sweating

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PA is a solid blue state. It will only swing red in a strong Republican year. Wisconsion is also a reliable Democratic state

 

This years election will be held in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Virginia. If any of those states goes for Obama it's over. If the election spills over into Colorado or New Hampshire then Obama might start sweating

 

 

PA is a solid blue state. It will only swing red in a strong Republican year. Wisconsion is also a reliable Democratic state

 

This years election will be held in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Virginia. If any of those states goes for Obama it's over. If the election spills over into Colorado or New Hampshire then Obama might start sweating

 

Obama will win Ohio, Florida, and Virginia but maybe Romney can pull a rabbit out of his hat.

 

Romney has no shot in PA.

Edited by John Adams
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I've said for a while that Obama wins this easily and yes, I've never voted for the presidential winner. The polls bear this out...Magox/World is the poll master and can find gems in the polls that show little signs for Romney but even he has to concede that the trend is for Obama right now. The VP pick should give Romney a temporary boost in a few states. We will see if there is a bigger effect. Usually isn't. Romney chose a guy the country needs, but not necessarily one that will help him win.

 

 

Depends which polls you look at. The daily trackers are identical to where they have been, and Florida, virginia, Iowa and Colorado have recently shown movement back towards Romney , and they are all within the margin. There also was a poll conducted by one of the independent polling outfits from Virginia that polled northern Virginians , which if Obama wins Virginia he needs to win this region by close to double digits, and it was a dead heat.

 

So we have conflicting data coming out. I don't believe that independents will vote for Obama, I just don't see it. I believe that people sometimes get caught up in the moment and see a couple polls and they tend to panic. I do believe that the dynamic needed to shake up, and this pick certainly does that.

 

He will appeal to independents who care about the economy and debt.

 

He will appeal to some younger undecided voters.

 

He will appeal to some female undecided voters.

 

He will appeal to Catholics.

he will appeal to the Midwestern, rust belt region

 

He will big time with Wisconsin .

 

 

But more importantly, he will fire up the conservative base and tea partiers. This cannot be underestimated.

 

From what I'm reading, they are going to produce a new budget, so we will have to see how they roll it out. Don't forget, Romney will have a lot more money to spend in these last few months, and Ryan is one of the most prolific fundraisers in all of congress, there will be a flood of business money that will come in. So Romney will have plenty of ammunition at their disposal. And considering Florida, Ohio, Iowa , nc , Colorado and Virginia are within the margin, they are in a good position to take those states.

 

If they perform as they have over the past month, then they will lose. If they step up their game, they win.

 

So it's going to be a matter of execution.

 

One more point, let's not forget how high obamas disapproval ratings are. He just hit a yearly low on both the Gallup and Rasmussen polls on the same day. I highly doubt that is coincidental. Plus he is seriously upside down on his approval ratings on the economy, debt and right way wrong track. Not to mention consumer confidence is hitting the lows for the year. People want change

 

Those undecideds are just looking for a credible alternative

 

 

Edited by WorldTraveller
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This years election will be held in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Virginia. If any of those states goes for Obama it's over. If the election spills over into Colorado or New Hampshire then Obama might start sweating

 

I have to assume all the retirees in Florida will hate Paul Ryan as the learn more about him.

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The selection of Ryan doesn't swing any voters or help with any states. Wisconsin is a true blue state

 

It's an idealogical pick and is setting the stage IMO for the Republicans agenda in Obama's second term and possibly setting Ryan up over Rubio as the party favorite for 2016 nominee

 

 

It was an adult pick. It forces Obama to come up with a realistic plan that saves medicare and social security for people 50 and younger. Everyone knows these programs are insolvent. Romney has a real plan, Obama's plan is the do nothing and go bankrupt Greece model.

 

I know that a lot of people here think this race will be close, I don't. I think the American people, as they always do, save this country from the total destruction of four more years of Obama and they do it in a big way.

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You mean the same way they hated Marco Rubio for proposing the exact same thing in his senatorial race?

 

The liberals were all over the airwaves yesterday talking about how Romney gave up on Florida because the Ryan plan wants to kill seniors. The fun part of that meme is when you find people repeating it, you quickly know who to stop responding to. The left may try to scare the elderly...again...but the elderly are not as stupid as the left needs to believe. The Ryan pick does not pull Romney out of Florida.

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