Will we run more and pass less than last year?

[Thurmal34]

We have two stud running backs and "meh" QBs and WRs. We have a D (on paper, I know) that should finally be less than paper meche. We have added some depth to a solid but thin OL. We play in the northeast and fortunately host a succession of dome/warm weather teams down the stretch run. Our two best offensive players are running backs. Will Gailey leverage our two best offensive players and get them at least 15 touches per game each? Or will he get down by 10 and claim he "had to pass" (see Tenn game last year)?

 

Fitz has shown to be better when his attempts are in the 30 or less range. IMO Buddy is building us to run more and pass less. Will Chan play to our perceived strength?

[It's in My Blood]

We have two stud running backs and "meh" QBs and WRs. We have a D (on paper, I know) that should finally be less than paper meche. We have added some depth to a solid but thin OL. We play in the northeast and fortunately host a succession of dome/warm weather teams down the stretch run. Our two best offensive players are running backs. Will Gailey leverage our two best offensive players and get them at least 15 touches per game each? Or will he get down by 10 and claim he "had to pass" (see Tenn game last year)?

 

Fitz has shown to be better when his attempts are in the 30 or less range. IMO Buddy is building us to run more and pass less. Will Chan play to our perceived strength?

 

I would imagine with our improved defense, we should and will be running the ball a lot more than last year. We shouldn't have many games where we have to abandon the run because we're down multiple scores.

[hondo in seattle]

I'm not opposed to running more but I'm not sure we should expect it.

 

1. Chan uses to passing game to open up the run game.

 

2. We don't have a dominating O Line. Our two backs averaged over 5 yards a pop partly because of #1.

 

With the exception of maybe a new starting LT, we're going into this season with the same players we began last season. So my guess is that what we saw in the first of last season is pretty much what we'll see this season. That seems to be Chan's formula for maximizing the talents of this group.

 

But Blood's comment is valid. Hopefully we can run more at the end of games because we have a lead.

[San-O]

No. Buddy is throw throw throw and throw.

 

He has said multiple times he "would like to run more", but never does. When you have injured receivers, banged up O-line,

a QB with apparent rib injuries and a stud RB getting 5.5 yards/carry and you STILL don't run more, you never will.

[OCinBuffalo]

I'm not opposed to running more but I'm not sure we should expect it.

 

1. Chan uses to passing game to open up the run game.

 

2. We don't have a dominating O Line. Our two backs averaged over 5 yards a pop partly because of #1.

 

With the exception of maybe a new starting LT, we're going into this season with the same players we began last season. So my guess is that what we saw in the first of last season is pretty much what we'll see this season. That seems to be Chan's formula for maximizing the talents of this group.

 

But Blood's comment is valid. Hopefully we can run more at the end of games because we have a lead.

At the beginning of last season....our O line was ripping huge running holes consistently. We can talk about things being set up...to a degree. But go back and watch the games, especially the first 7 games. A lot of those big run plays were about our O lineman finding their guy, owning him both physically and technically, getting off that block and getting a secondary one down the field. That happened over and over.

 

It was less about trickery and more about skill...and in many cases, it was just a plain beat down.

 

But, then the line started getting banged up, and everything got screwed up. With no real depth, it all went to schit. However, if you look at the Denver game, once the "replacement line" had a chance to work together for a few games....they started kicking ass. If the season lasted 26 games....etc.

 

And...yeah, in the 2012 NFL: you don't run to win, you run because you are winning.

[Thurmal34]

Hondo I hear you about using the pass to set up the run. However, I think our backs (and our OL, if tasked properly) are good enough that we can use the run to set up the run.

 

In the days of Thurman, we used to be able to convert key 3rd and 2 slash 3's on the ground when everyone on the opposing team, in the stadium, and watching on TV knew the ball was going to Thurman or KD23. We got it anyway. IMO that's what Buddy is building us for. The question is will Chan be flexible enough to adjust to that style?

 

What it comes down to, IMO, is those key short yardage plays. Will Chan drop Fitz back and toss to Donald Jones on a big Q3/Q4 3rd and 2 or will he simply hand it to FJ or CJ and shove it down the other team's throat?

 

IMO even if our line isnt "dominating" yet, out backs sure are. Let's feature our two best players.

[reddogblitz]

No. Buddy is throw throw throw and throw.

 

He has said multiple times he "would like to run more", but never does. When you have injured receivers, banged up O-line,

a QB with apparent rib injuries and a stud RB getting 5.5 yards/carry and you STILL don't run more, you never will.

I agree with this. I'll also add that when you're backup shotgun center can't get a snap back and you still don't put the QB under center and try to run more, you never will. Coach Gailey is a passing guy.

 

That said, in some games when Fred really had it going, like the Eagles game for example, he fed Fred heavily. In that game Fitz threw 27 times and Fred/CJ carried the ball 28 times.

 

In the game before that when we should have been pounding the rock in the 2nd half, Fitz threw 34 times to Fred/CJ's 20 carries. I look for more of this type of ratio this year.

 

The week after the Eagles game where we had so much success running the football, against the Giants, Fitz threw 30 time and Fred/CJ ran it 20 times.

[San-O]

I agree with this. I'll also add that when you're backup shotgun center can't get a snap back and you still don't put the QB under center and try to run more, you never will. Coach Gailey is a passing guy.

 

That said, in some games when Fred really had it going, like the Eagles game for example, he fed Fred heavily. In that game Fitz threw 27 times and Fred/CJ carried the ball 28 times.In the game before that when we should have been pounding the rock in the 2nd half, Fitz threw 34 times to Fred/CJ's 20 carries. I look for more of this type of ratio this year.

 

The week after the Eagles game where we had so much success running the football, against the Giants, Fitz threw 30 time and Fred/CJ ran it 20 times.

 

I remember that game, but not the exact stats. It's too bad IMO, as it seems Gailey is trying to prove something re: the passing

game instead of trying to call a smart and appropriate game, which I think will be his demise with this team.

 

We'll see.

[Bufcomments]

We have two stud running backs and "meh" QBs and WRs. We have a D (on paper, I know) that should finally be less than paper meche. We have added some depth to a solid but thin OL. We play in the northeast and fortunately host a succession of dome/warm weather teams down the stretch run. Our two best offensive players are running backs. Will Gailey leverage our two best offensive players and get them at least 15 touches per game each? Or will he get down by 10 and claim he "had to pass" (see Tenn game last year)?

 

Fitz has shown to be better when his attempts are in the 30 or less range. IMO Buddy is building us to run more and pass less. Will Chan play to our perceived strength?

When Fred was healthy we WERE a running team. Remember Fred got his touches before he got hurt.

 

Chan, Fitz and everybody in the locker room knows Fred is the MVP of the team. He will be the focus of the offense. But I think Spiller will get more reps as the season goes on to keep Fred fresh.

 

In order to make the playoffs Fred is gonna have to make it through most of the season and Fitz cutting down on those INT's. I hope both happens because we have a Defense that can stop teams.

[beerme1]

It's a passing league. I think Fitz is perfectly serviceable looking back at our start dont you? I also believe that Chan will change and feed fred/cj more this year which is opposite the nature but these two and their talent will demand that they have a greater emphasis than Fitz.

We are better.

[BillyBaroo]

Maybe it's because I just watched Moneyball - but the stats really say that both Jackson and Spiller were very effective running the ball last year - we would be crazy not to be a running team.

[Thurmal34]

When Fred was healthy we WERE a running team. Remember Fred got his touches before he got hurt.

 

Why not stay a running team when Fred's backup is just as good as FJ, if not better? All I'm trying to get at here is that our two best offensive players are running backs. If Chan is true to his word and tailors the offense to suit his best players, shouldn't we expect an attack that features a heavy dose of both FJ and CJ?

 

Look, I love Stevie, I even have his jersey, but in all honesty who is the better player, Stevie or CJ?

 

If Chan can objectively look at this club and see it's being built for pounding the rock and limiting Fitz to 25-30 throws per game, we will excel. Maybe even win the division. Yes I said it.

 

However, if we get down 7 or 10 in Q3 and Chan starts going 3 and out on pass plays, that's going to be frustrating. Being down 17-21 in Q3-Q4 is one thing, fine, pass away, but IMO you win with your best players. IMO our best player on O is FJ and our second best player is CJ. We should make teams pay for that, not let them relax when they have a 7 pt lead and know Fitz is going to throw to far less talented players three times in a row. We handcuff ourselves.

Edited May 19, 2012 by Thurmal34

[BillyBaroo]

Why not stay a running team when Fred's backup is just as good as FJ, if not better? All I'm trying to get at here is that our two best offensive players are running backs. If Chan is true to his word and tailors the offense to suit his best players, shouldn't we expect an attack that features a heavy dose of both FJ and CJ?

 

Look, I love Stevie, I even have his jersey, but in all honesty who is the better player, Stevie or CJ?

 

If Chan can objectively look at this club and see it's being built for pounding the rock and limiting Fitz to 25-30 throws per game, we will excel. Maybe even win the division. Yes I said it.

 

However, if we get down 7 or 10 in Q3 and Chan starts going 3 and out on pass plays, that's going to be frustrating. Being down 17-21 in Q3-Q4 is one thing, fine, pass away, but IMO you win with your best players. IMO our best player on O is FJ and our second best player is CJ. We should make teams pay for that, not let them relax when they have a 7 pt lead and know Fitz is going to throw to far less talented players three times in a row. We handcuff ourselves.

Definitely agree on the Stevie assessment - - running game should take precedence over him

[Buffalo Barbarian]

We have two stud running backs and "meh" QBs and WRs. We have a D (on paper, I know) that should finally be less than paper meche. We have added some depth to a solid but thin OL. We play in the northeast and fortunately host a succession of dome/warm weather teams down the stretch run. Our two best offensive players are running backs. Will Gailey leverage our two best offensive players and get them at least 15 touches per game each? Or will he get down by 10 and claim he "had to pass" (see Tenn game last year)?

 

Fitz has shown to be better when his attempts are in the 30 or less range. IMO Buddy is building us to run more and pass less. Will Chan play to our perceived strength?

God I hope so, watching all that passing especially on short yardage was maddening. We have great runners and a devastating FB lets use him.

[nucci]

We have two stud running backs and "meh" QBs and WRs. We have a D (on paper, I know) that should finally be less than paper meche. We have added some depth to a solid but thin OL. We play in the northeast and fortunately host a succession of dome/warm weather teams down the stretch run. Our two best offensive players are running backs. Will Gailey leverage our two best offensive players and get them at least 15 touches per game each? Or will he get down by 10 and claim he "had to pass" (see Tenn game last year)?

 

Fitz has shown to be better when his attempts are in the 30 or less range. IMO Buddy is building us to run more and pass less. Will Chan play to our perceived strength?

Who are both great receivers. It will be interesting but I think we will still have a very good offense.

[eball]

I remember that game, but not the exact stats. It's too bad IMO, as it seems Gailey is trying to prove something re: the passing

game instead of trying to call a smart and appropriate game, which I think will be his demise with this team.

 

We'll see.

How do people type this stuff, much less believe it?

[BuffaloFan68]

The main point that I am looking forward to is the fact that we should have more offensive plays this year with our D spending less time on the field.

 

Show me the baby

[chris heff]

Hondo I hear you about using the pass to set up the run. However, I think our backs (and our OL, if tasked properly) are good enough that we can use the run to set up the run.

 

In the days of Thurman, we used to be able to convert key 3rd and 2 slash 3's on the ground when everyone on the opposing team, in the stadium, and watching on TV knew the ball was going to Thurman or KD23. We got it anyway. IMO that's what Buddy is building us for. The question is will Chan be flexible enough to adjust to that style?

 

What it comes down to, IMO, is those key short yardage plays. Will Chan drop Fitz back and toss to Donald Jones on a big Q3/Q4 3rd and 2 or will he simply hand it to FJ or CJ and shove it down the other team's throat?

 

IMO even if our line isnt "dominating" yet, out backs sure are. Let's feature our two best players.

 

In today's NFL 3rd and 2 is a pass .

[Thurmal34]

In today's NFL 3rd and 2 is a pass .

 

So we should not play to our strengths on 3rd and short because "everyone else is doing it"?

[chris heff]

So we should not play to our strengths on 3rd and short because "everyone else is doing it"?

 

I not saying I agree that 3rd and two is a passing down, just saying it is.

[Optometric Insight]

So we should not play to our strengths on 3rd and short because "everyone else is doing it"?

 

The motivation of peer pressure is something, isn't it?

 

But I don't see why we can't run it just because everyone is passing it. We should stand out from the croud, not join it. Joining the crowd just makes the other team's job easier. If they just practiced playing a passing team the week before, it would be harder for them to make a game plan to beat us if we were a running team.

 

In closing, lets start a new trend; lets run the ball and make the playoffs, two things that haven't happened in the NFL for a while.

[BillsWatch]

How do people type this stuff, much less believe it?

 

Because coach does not do what poster thinks and poster thinks if he/she just had a chance poster could be top coach in NFL. Either that or they play fantasy/Madden too much.

[Lurker]

Maybe it's because I just watched Moneyball - but the stats really say that both Jackson and Spiller were very effective running the ball last year - we would be crazy not to be a running team.

And those YPC were probably aided by the defense being aligned against the pass as a result of Chan's play calling. In obvious short yardage situations, the o-line didn't excell that much that it would convince Gailey this could be a smashmouth "run-when-the-D-knows-you're-running" team (although Glenn may give them a better ability to run left in 2012):

 

2011 Rushing Power Success--LEFT: 50% (ranked 30th)

 

2011 Rushing Power Success--CENTER: 65% (ranked 15th)

 

2011 Rushing Power Success--RIGHT: 60% (ranked 15th)

 

 

Rushing Power Success = Percentage of rushes on 3rd or 4th down with 2 or fewer yards to go that achieved a first down or TD. Also includes rushes on 1st-and-goal and 2nd-and-goal from the opponent's 2-yard line or closer.

Edited May 19, 2012 by Lurker

[hondo in seattle]

Hondo I hear you about using the pass to set up the run. However, I think our backs (and our OL, if tasked properly) are good enough that we can use the run to set up the run.

 

In the days of Thurman, we used to be able to convert key 3rd and 2 slash 3's on the ground when everyone on the opposing team, in the stadium, and watching on TV knew the ball was going to Thurman or KD23. We got it anyway. IMO that's what Buddy is building us for. The question is will Chan be flexible enough to adjust to that style?

 

What it comes down to, IMO, is those key short yardage plays. Will Chan drop Fitz back and toss to Donald Jones on a big Q3/Q4 3rd and 2 or will he simply hand it to FJ or CJ and shove it down the other team's throat?

 

IMO even if our line isnt "dominating" yet, out backs sure are. Let's feature our two best players.

 

Thermal, it's hard to disagree. An offense should be built around the best players and Fredex and CJ are our best players. I'm just not convinced that Chan will change his scheme. This unit is virtually unchanged since last year so I expect him to do what he did last season. But maybe Chan's had an epiphany and I'm wrong. And maybe a better defense that keeps opposing scores down will allow Chan to call more runs.

 

As to the dominance of the Offensive Line... I remember the Chuck Knox years when defenses would put 7, 8, 9 players up near the line of scrimmage to counter "Ground Chuck." Gailey, however, often has defenses guessing - and often guessing pass instead of run. Obviously, that makes it much easier on the linemen and backs.

 

I admit that, like a lot of fans, I tend to watch the player with the ball. I don't have a good read on how often individual linemen won their one-on-one battles. But in obvious running situations, I didn't see the same forward push or gaping wholes that I saw on other downs (or on other teams, or on some previous Bills squads).

[San-O]

How do people type this stuff, much less believe it?

 

 

It's what I am seeing. He just won't run when he should, and seems bent on passing.

 

I think his bad play calling cost the Bills a couple games last year.

 

IMO.

[Mr. WEO]

Why are people saying CJ is one of the 2 "best players"?? Fitz is a far better offensive weapon than Spiller, who filled in nicely as a backup RB last year.

[Just in Atlanta]

Don't care what the ratio is. What ever works. Pass to set up the run seems to be Gailey's philosophy. Gailey's offense is fun to watch, and it worked the first half of the year. But I also have to say there were a few games later in the year in which I didn't understand why we didn't run more.

 

Gotta think that if we're in more games, we'll run more. Our D should take care of that.

[Bruce]

I don't see why anything should change. If Young makes the team, I think that we'll probably be seeing more 'Wildcat'- type sets, but other than that I don't see any reason to change anything.

 

It worked.

 

IF anything, I think that the improved D should help our 'O' get the jump on teams, and then make it hard for opposing teams to keep up. This would allow us to go down to more of a lockdown, running game, preserve the lead- type offense, but I don't think that anything changes with our basic offense.

 

And where are we seeing an improvement in the running game?

[uncle flap]

I mentioned this in another thread:

 

The Bills were frequently stuffed in short yardage situations running out of a traditional two back set. In the first Jets game alone I believe Fred was stopped 3 times (at least) trying to convert short yardage situations, one of which was a fourth and inches.

 

I know everyone was mad at the long throws on 3rd and short throughout the year - but it was because Defenses would stack the box and dare Fitz to throw. Say what you want about Fitz, but I want my QB to have the confidence to accept that challenge. Of course it'd be nice to have the arm/accuracy to make them pay with more consistency. And it wouldn't hurt if Donald Jones could've reeled a couple of those in too!

 

It looks like the o line will be better this year and this won't be as much of an issue, thank goodness.

 

Of course I would love if the Bills could run successfully when the defense is expecting it, but there wasn't much evidence of their ability to do so last year. Even with a healthy line.

 

I'm more than fine with continuing to run a spread offense and running out of that like the Bills did last year. There's nothing wrong with passing to set up the run. Those 5+ ypc averages were mostly due to running out the shotgun and the defenses having extra DBs on the field.

 

There were particular plays were I think they should've ran instead of passed, but looking at the overall picture, I don't think they need to drastically change the proportion of runs. Keep in mind, if the Bills are winning, we will see the rushing attempts per game go up.

[John from Riverside]

How do people type this stuff, much less believe it?

 

I was wondering the same thing......debating on even taking something meaningful in this thread.....half of the fans dont even understand game time situations OR choos to undervalue the talent on our OL

[eball]

It's what I am seeing. He just won't run when I thinkhe should, and seems bent on passing.

 

I think his bad play calling cost the Bills a couple games last year.

 

IMO.

Fixed. If you truly believe Gailey would purposefully call a play he knew he shouldn't, simply to prove how smart or clever he is, then you clearly haven't listened to the man speak for the past three years, and I feel sorry for you.

[Lurker]

If Chan can objectively look at this club and see it's being built for pounding the rock

 

Last year's o-line was NOT a roadgrader bunch that could impose their will on the defense. Adding Glenn and Saunders may help, but until they "do it," there's no reason to think this is a run-first team.

 

The success they had last year was based on mixing up the play calling (so teams were often expecting pass) and Fred's exceptional ability to see the cut back and NOT go where the play was designed to run (CJ also started to pick up on this as he got more reps).

 

Spreading the field and giving our RBs the option to pick their holes is how Chan will likely go this year as well.

[Dragonborn10]

Are there any run dominant teams that are any good? Baltimore and San Francisco I guess but they have very good to great defenses. Even the Giants became a passing team. Packers, Saints, Patriots, Detroit, Falcons, and even the Steelers are all pass oriented teams. Even in bad weather the short passing game can work and does Buffalo even get bad weather anymore? The truly horrible weather games you can't pass or run.

Spread the defense side to side, get the LB's and SS moving pre and post snap, use quick passes to protect the QB, then run in the seams that are created.

The defense to this is having all the DB's and LB's just sit on the 5-10 yard pass routes. That is what defenses did to Gailey and Fitz in the second half of the season. That is where the Bills need to cross them up with a run from the spread formation or a route combination that gets someone open beyond the LB's. Bunch formations can do this with one of two or three guys(3 WR's or a combo of WR's. TE, and RB) going deep on a post or corner route with the others running crossing patterns underneath.

[John from Riverside]

Just something to consider guys

 

When you are a HC/OC who has a defense that cant stop anybody.....its a little difficult to be patient with the run......

 

 

Its kinda like that gambler who keeps betting big to try and recoup his losses.

 

 

If we had a DEFENSE that we knew was so good that the offense was gonna see the ball more then a few times a quarter......then Chan might well be more willing to grind it out a big more.....

 

More likely though.....he will run his multiple receiver sets and run underneath it....Chan likes to spread the field out....as long as it isn't in short yardage and goal line situations this isnt a bad thing.....but your DEFENSE has to show up week in and week out....

 

Dont live and die off turnovers....force punts

[ganesh]

with our improved defense, we should be a Run..Run...and more Run team. We have to load up and force the other teams to stop our run. I still can't trust Fitz with this team. He just makes too many mistakes.