S Mark Barron discussion

[NoSaint]

I'll tell you what...

 

I'm uncertain exactly how pissed off I would be if the Bills took Barron...But my guess is...VERY...

 

I know this much...IF they took Barron, and I still don't think they will, they better hope he's the next coming of Ed Reed then some...This is a Team with a fairly RECENT history of a failed Top 10 Strong Safety Draft Pick...I know that was not Nix regime, and I'm sure Buddy would tell you he pays no attention to all that...But he should...The Bills are FINE at Safety...FINE...George Wilson played real well at times last year...He had a couple real nice Games before he got hurt...Byrd is a solid, if not spectacular FS...They Drafted Searcy last Season and he seems to have promise...This is a Safety unit playing behind a Front 4 that got almost NO pressure...They are fine...

 

I'm not saying Barron is not a good player...He is...He's clearly the top rated Safety in this Draft...No question...He's big, physical, instinctive, and fast enough (He's NOT a speed burner though)...A leader on that Crimson Tide D...He's a great Prospect...But not for The Bills, and especially not right now...It's a bad Football move when you are trying to build a TEAM that can win now...Barron is a Strong Safety in the NFL...I'm not in favor of Drafting almost any Safety (OK I'll give you Reed, Polamalu, and Ronnie freaking Lott) in the Top 10...Let alone a SS...But on a Team with Needs at LT, OLB, CB, and WR...Drafting a SS at #10 is a potential blunder that can have a long lasting effect...It really make no sense to me at all...

 

And much of this could be that The Bills know there are SEVERAL Teams that want Barron...He's by far the top rated Safety, which is inflating his value just a bit IMHO...But if you're a Team like the Cowboys with a HUGE need at Safety, you don't really care about using a Top 15 pick on Barron...If some Team, like the Boys, Trades ahead of The Bills for Barron, that means somebody else slides through...And that's a good thing...At least in theory it is...

 

I know this much...The first Round just got a lot more nerve-wracking for me with Barron's name now surfacing for The Bills...I really think I'll cry if they Pick that Kid...It would be a massive mistake IMHO...Not on the scale of Whitner...But almost...

 

Id be a little irked but lets be honest - you just listed a 31 year old, a guy that may be a tough contract negotiation really soon and a 4th round pick that wasn't awful but I don't want starting if either of the above are hurt long term this year. That's why I tend to advocate bpa so much. Set at a position in April isn't the same as set in December or a year out and I think people totally overrate week 1 rookie contributions. If he's a spiller type pick, I'm ok with that. Especially with more room for him to play in subpackages, and rotation at either safety position or a nickel/dime corner role.

 

I'd be irked, but if he's the clear number 1- pull the trigger.

[NewEra]

I hear what you're saying...But I think this is a relatively common misconception about Barron going around...That misconception being that he is a lock to excel at Free or Strong Safety in the NFL...And I just don't see it that way...I don't think he's an NFL FS...Though I readily admit he's a very good SS prospect...

 

Below are a couple Scouting Reports that I feel back up what I see in Barron when I watch him...Everyone agrees he's a good prospect...But I think if you put him back there at FS, especially early in his career, he's going to struggle...And even though I think it's stupid for The Bills to even think Safety at #10, I could maybe understand a little if it was a guy like Eric Berry who was REAL versatile...I don't think Barron is that type of player...But I guess we'll see in time...

 

Walter Football

 

National Football Post

 

I agree completely. He's a SS. IF he's the pick, I would assume they think Wilson can play FS (I have no idea how he'd do) and Barron would play SS. If they don't think Wilson can play FS, it's just a bad pick all around. Again, I pray Barron isn't the pick. I'm an advocate of picking bpa, in certain situations. Not this one. I can't see him being the pick. If the top six are off the board as we expect (luck, rg3, Kalil, Blackmon, Claiborne and Richardson), either floyd, Kuechley, Gilmore, cox or kirkpatrick will be there (2 of them, 3 if tannehill is picked). Taking Barron over any of those guys is a big mistake IMO. BIG. If we're going to select a non Wr, lb, cb or LT I would hope its cox.

[frogger]

Maybe we will invent a defense based on TCU's

A 4-2-5, with three safeties.

Otherwise I think it makes little sense to draft a position we already are strong at.

[NoSaint]

Maybe we will invent a defense based on TCU's

A 4-2-5, with three safeties.

Otherwise I think it makes little sense to draft a position we already are strong at.

 

With Wilson 31 and byrds contract expiring how confident are you both are starters after this season? not advocating the pick but pointing out with FA how quickly strengths can become a weakness if not proactive.

[mrags]

Ok not that I agree or disagree here but a few things that could make this pick worth sense. But first I don't know Barron at all. Never seen him. Dont know which safety position he plays or is projected to play in the NFL. Just hear me out.

 

With the switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3. Under a new DC yo go along with it, you could potentially see a few things happen.

-Wanny moves Wilson from S to an OLB position.

-Barron is drafted to fill Wilsons spot

-Barron is the BPA (on the Bills board) and don't want to pass up a sure fire steal.

-The Bills feel he is the 2nd coming of Ed Reed or Ronnie Lott and want to lock this position up for years to come on defense. With the front 4, Williams, Searcy, and Barron could be the 7 defenders on this D for a long time.

-The Bills know they will NOT be resigning Byrd next year and want his replacement.

 

All these things come to mind when I hear the possibility of this pick. Not saying I agree with any if it. But I do trust Buddy and this FO which is more than I can say for the past regimes. I feel they have a true plan and it's working so far. I'm on board with whatever the pick is.

 

Ok not that I agree or disagree here but a few things that could make this pick worth sense. But first I don't know Barron at all. Never seen him. Dont know which safety position he plays or is projected to play in the NFL. Just hear me out.

 

With the switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3. Under a new DC yo go along with it, you could potentially see a few things happen.

-Wanny moves Wilson from S to an OLB position.

-Barron is drafted to fill Wilsons spot

-Barron is the BPA (on the Bills board) and don't want to pass up a sure fire steal.

-The Bills feel he is the 2nd coming of Ed Reed or Ronnie Lott and want to lock this position up for years to come on defense. With the front 4, Williams, Searcy, and Barron could be the 7 defenders on this D for a long time.

-The Bills know they will NOT be resigning Byrd next year and want his replacement.

 

All these things come to mind when I hear the possibility of this pick. Not saying I agree with any if it. But I do trust Buddy and this FO which is more than I can say for the past regimes. I feel they have a true plan and it's working so far. I'm on board with whatever the pick is.

[frogger]

With Wilson 31 and byrds contract expiring how confident are you both are starters after this season? not advocating the pick but pointing out with FA how quickly strengths can become a weakness if not proactive.

 

I realize age is catching up with Wilson, though I feel he has at least 4 good years left and Byrd is going into his final year...I get that, but why not fill a need like linebacker, not sure if you recall but Barnett is up there in age and has a history of injuries. Sheppard has potential...but what's potential? Morrison played so well in jax that they over spent on some former Penn state linebacker.

Yeah, we could say that about every position, but we are not in that position to do so.

[hondo in seattle]

I would be surprised with this pick but not shocked. At least Casserly rates Baron ahead of Whitner "in all phases of the game."

 

Nix says he wants a difference-maker with #10. Not sure if Baron could be called a "difference-maker" but apparently some knowledgeable people think so.

 

Here's the Casserly article...

 

In speaking with teams these days about where particular players could be selected in the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft, I'm continually asked one particular question: Will Alabama safety Mark Barron be available when it is our turn to pick?

 

The message here is crystal clear: A lot of teams are very interested in selecting Barron high in Round 1. Why is there all this interest? To put it simply, Barron is one of the best players in this draft.

 

Most people feel that six prospects are "a cut above" the rest in this class: QB Andrew Luck, QB Robert Griffin III, OT Matt Kalil, RB Trent Richardson, CB Morris Claiborne and WR Justin Blackmon. My next-rated player is Barron.

 

Back in my executive days with the Washington Redskins, when there was a tie between two players on our draft board, I always asked two questions:

 

1) Who will make the most Pro Bowls?

2) Who do you want to take to the Meadowlands to play the Giants?

 

These two questions always helped break a tie.

 

I've studied five games of Barron in action, and he's the player who would receive the most positive answers from those two questions. Barron is 6-foot-1, 213 pounds and runs the 40-yard dash in the 4.5's. He is very smart; Nick Saban runs a complex defense at Alabama and Barron had no problem understanding it. He should be able to be the defensive signal caller for his NFL team. He is very athletic and has the ability to play man coverage versus tight ends, which is not common in a safety. He is also exceptional when playing zone defense. Barron has excellent instincts to break on the ball and the speed to cover a lot of ground. As a physical player and fine tackler, he often played linebacker in Alabama's nickel defense. When I evaluate Barron as a safety, I do not see anything he can't do. To me, he's a very safe pick.

 

So, how high do you take a safety? That depends on how important the position is to your defense. If it is important, then Barron qualifies as a top-10 pick in this year's draft.

 

Here is how I rate Barron against some highly regarded safeties taken in the top 15 of recent drafts when they were coming out of college ...

 

Rated higher than Barron:

 

• Eric Berry, 2010 draft, fifth pick (Kansas City): Better cover skills, could cover some receivers.

 

Rated lower than Barron:

 

• Earl Thomas, 2010 draft, 14th pick (Seattle): Not as good a tackler.

 

• LaRon Landry, 2007 draft, sixth pick (Washington): Not as stout in man-to-man coverage.

 

• Michael Huff, 2006 draft, seventh pick (Oakland): Not as physical.

 

• Donte Whitner, 2006 draft, eighth pick (Buffalo): Barron rates better in all phases of the game.

 

• Sean Taylor 2004 draft, fifth pick (Washington): Not as smooth in the hips, could not cover as well.

 

In scouting for the draft, you compare prospects to previous players taken in a round to decide what value to put on them. This is how I arrive at my thinking: Mark Barron is worth a top-10 pick.

[stony]

Ok not that I agree or disagree here but a few things that could make this pick worth sense. But first I don't know Barron at all. Never seen him. Dont know which safety position he plays or is projected to play in the NFL. Just hear me out.

 

With the switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3. Under a new DC yo go along with it, you could potentially see a few things happen.

-Wanny moves Wilson from S to an OLB position.

-Barron is drafted to fill Wilsons spot

-Barron is the BPA (on the Bills board) and don't want to pass up a sure fire steal.

-The Bills feel he is the 2nd coming of Ed Reed or Ronnie Lott and want to lock this position up for years to come on defense. With the front 4, Williams, Searcy, and Barron could be the 7 defenders on this D for a long time.

-The Bills know they will NOT be resigning Byrd next year and want his replacement.

 

All these things come to mind when I hear the possibility of this pick. Not saying I agree with any if it. But I do trust Buddy and this FO which is more than I can say for the past regimes. I feel they have a true plan and it's working so far. I'm on board with whatever the pick is.

 

Ok not that I agree or disagree here but a few things that could make this pick worth sense. But first I don't know Barron at all. Never seen him. Dont know which safety position he plays or is projected to play in the NFL. Just hear me out.

 

With the switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3. Under a new DC yo go along with it, you could potentially see a few things happen.

-Wanny moves Wilson from S to an OLB position.

-Barron is drafted to fill Wilsons spot

-Barron is the BPA (on the Bills board) and don't want to pass up a sure fire steal.

-The Bills feel he is the 2nd coming of Ed Reed or Ronnie Lott and want to lock this position up for years to come on defense. With the front 4, Williams, Searcy, and Barron could be the 7 defenders on this D for a long time.

-The Bills know they will NOT be resigning Byrd next year and want his replacement.

 

All these things come to mind when I hear the possibility of this pick. Not saying I agree with any if it. But I do trust Buddy and this FO which is more than I can say for the past regimes. I feel they have a true plan and it's working so far. I'm on board with whatever the pick is.

 

Uhhhhhh....no? Just can't ever see this happening. Ever. Pretty sure we resigned Byran Scott to do just this in Nickel packages.

 

Curious as to why they wouldn't want to resign him. I thought he might have been our most complete Def. player last year. He's really turning into a nice all-around safety.

Edited April 21, 2012 by stony

[Kelly the Dog]

Barron looks like a very good player but I would be very surprised if the Bills take him. At #10, especially after what Nix has been saying, it's highly unlikely that Barron is significantly rated higher than another player the Bills love in the top 10. Their board is going to be different than the 9 players actually drafted when the pick comes up. Teams don't really draft the actual BPA on the board unless they are lucky enough that he fits a real position of need AND is significantly higher rated than a guy right below him on the board at a position of need.

 

When the Bills drafted Spiller with the (alleged) BPA we were a team low on talent and playmaking, so he became an easy choice for them. Last year at #3 we had a team woefully lacking in talent on defense and Dareus was an obvious choice. This year, after two years, Nix has stocked the team with his players and his kind of talent, and we have 75% less holes to fill in Nix's mind (self-evident because he has been choosing these guys). The Bills have 4 clear positions of need, and only 3-4 true starting positions available (with Morrison's and perhaps Florence's being the third and fourth). I will be very surprised if we draft anything other than a LT, WR, CB or OLB in round one.

 

The team needs to go to the playoffs this year. George Wilson is a fine player at SS and was playing all-pro level when the defense was healthy. With a pass rush he should be very solid back there. The team likes Searcy. I'm not saying we won't draft a safety, Byrd could use a back-up at FS. But I would be extremely surprised if Barron was the choice. It's also extremely hard to project safeties as NFL stars, harder than some other positions.

[NoSaint]

Uhhhhhh....no? Just can't ever see this happening. Ever. Pretty sure we resigned Byran Scott to do just this in Nickel packages.

 

Curious as to why they wouldn't want to resign him. I thought he might have been our most complete Def. player last year. He's really turning into a nice all-around safety.

 

My worry is will perceived value have a gap (agent says he could be Ed Reed in a better D, bills say he's been a good player). Could be a total non-issue but that rookie year might be tough in negotiations

 

I realize age is catching up with Wilson, though I feel he has at least 4 good years left and Byrd is going into his final year...I get that, but why not fill a need like linebacker, not sure if you recall but Barnett is up there in age and has a history of injuries. Sheppard has potential...but what's potential? Morrison played so well in jax that they over spent on some former Penn state linebacker.

Yeah, we could say that about every position, but we are not in that position to do so.

 

And that's why I say bpa. Any position can fall apart in just a year even (typically outside a handful of situations). Add talent at its highest level and sort out the rest later.

[KOKBILLS]

I agree completely. He's a SS. IF he's the pick, I would assume they think Wilson can play FS (I have no idea how he'd do) and Barron would play SS. If they don't think Wilson can play FS, it's just a bad pick all around. Again, I pray Barron isn't the pick. I'm an advocate of picking bpa, in certain situations. Not this one. I can't see him being the pick. If the top six are off the board as we expect (luck, rg3, Kalil, Blackmon, Claiborne and Richardson), either floyd, Kuechley, Gilmore, cox or kirkpatrick will be there (2 of them, 3 if tannehill is picked). Taking Barron over any of those guys is a big mistake IMO. BIG. If we're going to select a non Wr, lb, cb or LT I would hope its cox.

 

Agreed...

 

I'm not real big on taking a D-Lineman at #10 either...But I agree where Cox is concerned...I would take him over Barron any day...Brockers too...

 

I don't want to get too wrapped up in need because I do understand how that can hurt you if you go need over talent...But I'm more of the mind that The Bills are trying to put the final pieces in place to make an extended Playoff run...They are trying to fill out a Roster here...They are trying to build a Team...And there will definitely be better options for that Team building at #10 besides Barron...And I think some Folks have already forgot about Searcy...The Bills also have 9 Picks...So Draft a Safety later (4th or 5th Rd.)...I simply don't see the logic in a #10 overall SS...I have visions of Whitner/Ngata dancing in my head...And that's not good at all...

[MRW]

He is very athletic and has the ability to play man coverage versus tight ends, which is not common in a safety.

If Nix and co. share this evaluation, could the tight ends in our division drive them toward this pick?

[DrDawkinstein]

IF (and that's a big if) Barron is the pick, here is how I see our DBs playing out...

 

Barron starting at SS, Searcy as backup

Byrd starting at FS, Wilson as backup

Scott playing Nickel Backer

 

This allows us to have Scott and Barron on the field in the Nickel to cover TEs and shut down the underneath game. Byrd starts and ball hawks while Wilson, at 31, goes to a depth role. Searcy backs up and continues to contribute on Special Teams.

 

Injuries can and will happen. If we go into the season with those 5 Safeties, I guarantee at least 1 misses some time due to injury. It's just bound to happen.

 

This is what a good team looks like. Guys you want starting forced to backup because there is even better talent ahead of them.

 

Im not necessarily saying we should pick Barron. But I can get behind it if that's how it goes. The good news is, we have more picks than needs.

[aristocrat]

I have heard that our pick is going to be a surprise to all the fans but I thought it meant we would take a def end or tackle. Didn't cross my mind to take Barron. If he can cover tight ends its a solid move to try and give our line an extra second by keeping gronk covered.

[Astrobot]

What I'm hearing is that NEP* are interested in Barron and is entertaining the idea of trading up for him. If so, I'm interested in talking with them.

[MattM]

When I clicked on this thread, my FEAR was that the poster's name would be NEVERGIVEUP.

 

Dodged that bullet.

 

They are not taking Barron. It'll be Kooky or Fleener (if its a surprise pick). They look ready to get the best player in the draft at some position, but that position wont be Safety (or, if there is a god, running back). I'm all for BPA but that would be stupid.

 

I had the exact same fear....

[DrDawkinstein]

What I'm hearing is that NEP* are interested in Barron and is entertaining the idea of trading up for him. If so, I'm interested in talking with them.

 

UGH NO! No to trading with the Pats so they can get a great player (Barron, whoever). No to trading with the Jets so they can get a great player (Ingram, Upshaw, etc).

 

It will not be worth the extra 2nd round pick we gain, to give a division rival a good player we have to face twice a year for the next 5 seasons.

[Astrobot]

UGH NO! No to trading with the Pats so they can get a great player (Barron, whoever). No to trading with the Jets so they can get a great player (Ingram, Upshaw, etc).

 

It will not be worth the extra 2nd round pick we gain, to give a division rival a good player we have to face twice a year for the next 5 seasons.

I'd want their #27, their RD2#48, and a RD1 next year. NEP gets Barron; we get Zach Brown, Alshon Jeffery, and Coby Fleener (or Kelechi Osemele).

[MattM]

UGH NO! No to trading with the Pats so they can get a great player (Barron, whoever). No to trading with the Jets so they can get a great player (Ingram, Upshaw, etc).

 

It will not be worth the extra 2nd round pick we gain, to give a division rival a good player we have to face twice a year for the next 5 seasons.

 

 

What would they need to trade to get up from 27 to 10? Both that and 31? Or even more? Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing us trade back to the 15-20 range, but not much beyond that....

[mrags]

Uhhhhhh....no? Just can't ever see this happening. Ever. Pretty sure we resigned Byran Scott to do just this in Nickel packages.

 

Curious as to why they wouldn't want to resign him. I thought he might have been our most complete Def. player last year. He's really turning into a nice all-around safety.

First of all. Wilson is very versitile. I'd almost guarantee you see him and Scott both moved around a bit this year.

 

They wouldn't resign him for potentially a few reasons (not that I expect it or agree with any of them):

-Hes a Dick Juron guy, not a Nix guy

-Hes a FA and will demand way too much money

-He has another year unlike his rookie season and the FO feels he is not as good as previously thought.

 

IF (and that's a big if) Barron is the pick, here is how I see our DBs playing out...

 

Barron starting at SS, Searcy as backup

Byrd starting at FS, Wilson as backup

Scott playing Nickel Backer

 

This allows us to have Scott and Barron on the field in the Nickel to cover TEs and shut down the underneath game. Byrd starts and ball hawks while Wilson, at 31, goes to a depth role. Searcy backs up and continues to contribute on Special Teams.

 

Injuries can and will happen. If we go into the season with those 5 Safeties, I guarantee at least 1 misses some time due to injury. It's just bound to happen.

 

This is what a good team looks like. Guys you want starting forced to backup because there is even better talent ahead of them.

 

Im not necessarily saying we should pick Barron. But I can get behind it if that's how it goes. The good news is, we have more picks than needs.

Great post DrD. Exactly what I was thinking. If you have to go up against players like Hernandez and Gronk twice a year why not get guys and build a defense that can combat that.