What Happens If They Can't Resign Steve Johnson?

[kickedface]

its just posturing, you know how these things go. steve johnson wants a top 5 wr pay with not quite top 5 wr play. wr's value has gone down in the last few years, which is odd considering that its a passing league. he will get an offer, it will be less than he wants, but he will sign.

[Bill from NYC]

If he were a stud receiver many vocal Bills fans wouldn't know it. I'm not trying to turn this into a Bills fan bash because I hate that, but if there is an area that could certainly use improvement it is the evaluation of our own players.

 

When Pat Williams became a FA he was called fat, old and we could lose to the Pittsburgh 3rd stringers without him etc.. All he did was go on to the best years of his career in Minnesota. Pro Bowl performer.

 

When Jason Peters rose to become a top LT....Bills fans were in denial. He sucks, the Pro Bowl is a sham blah blah and the guy just continues to go to Pro Bowls and was second team All Pro last year.

 

Aaron Schobel........same ****.......he wasn't a good pass rusher, got coverage sacks, got garbage sacks yada yada. The man could play. If anything he was unheralded. Imagine if he got to play with a team that scored points and got leads so that he could actually get to rush the passer in pass-only situations.

 

Face it, there is a segment of you guys that blame the better players on this team for it's struggles. The reality is that it's the front office failure to bring ENOUGH of them and quality coaching for them that is the problem. Letting them walk over a few extra million dollars when the team is between $10M and $30M under the cap in any given year is squirrely.

 

So true. Imagine the effect that a young Schobel and his 10 or so qb sacks would have on this team? And he did this with Jauron actually sending him back on coverage at times. Dareus makes plays on his own. He would look twice as good with an Aaron Schobel that blockers would absolutely have to account for.

 

Something else I believe that many fans miss is wrt the secondary. It is very hard imo to tell how good or bad they are because the Bills have zero pass rush. They would HAVE to be better if qbs were hurried, sacked, etc.

 

And yes, if they let Stevie walk, I fully expect another Ralph Wilson "add excitement" pick, which would simply be a continuation of our losing ways. And, if they plan to keep Fitz (which my gut tells me they do after the big contract), SJ is his favorite target. They have a long history together dating back to when they were second stringers.

 

SJ might not be a true #1. I don't dispute this, but they need to pay him and focus on pressing needs that exist, instead of creating yet another.

[Cash]

He is more like a middle of the pack #2, or slightly above, receiver in my opinion.

There has to be better receivers out there that can be hired for 9 mil.

I hope both sides come to a deal and he stays in Buffalo, but I don't blame Nix in this case for wanting to pay him what he deserves.

I happen to disagree, but that's your opinion, and you're entitled to it. But please do me a favor and take a look around the league. What WRs (not on a rookie contract) are better than Stevie and currently making ~$9mil/year or less? I don't think there's any, but that's just my opinion. I think Stevie's pretty good. Not elite, but pretty good.

 

This is what makes me mad when fans comment about Steve Johnson (or Lee Evans for that matter).

 

What makes a receiver a #1 or a #2?

 

 

Some receivers are fast. Some are big and tall. Some are good route runners. Some are small and shifty.

Why do we try to determine a receiver's worth based on some arbitrary number that doesn't mean anything?

Why can't we just recognize that a player has talent - and if we let that talent leave without replacing him with someone better - we are getting WORSE as a team.

 

 

A lot of Bills fans determined that Lee Evans wasn't a #1 receiver, because he was one dimensional as a deep threat. Never mind that he was one of the best deep threats in the game. Evans was the same kind of receiver as someone like Mike Wallace, Desean Jackson or Greg Jennings. He wasn't the kind of guy that put up 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns every season. But he still had value by stretching defenses and opening up passing lanes underneath.

And... as it turns out, our offense has really missed having a deep threat on the field.

 

 

Now, for Steve Johnson. We all know that he's not in the talent level of someone like Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald.

But he is one of the best route runners in the game, and has been the only receiver in the NFL this year to get the best of Darrelle Revis (who we happen to play twice a year).

Johnson is only in his second year as a starter and there is every reason to believe that he will get better (especially if the Bills can add a more accurate QB).

 

 

If we let him go, that leaves us four options:

 

1) Replace him with someone currently on the roster like David Nelson or Naaman Roosevelt. This would make our offense significantly worse.

 

2) Replace him with a top free agent receiver like Dwayne Bowe, Vincent Jackson or Marques Colston. These guys will probably cost more than Johnson, so why not just keep Stevie?

 

3) Replace him with a lower free agent receiver like Robert Meachem or Pierre Garcon. This also would make our offense significantly worse.

 

4) Replace him with a draft pick. A rookie (even someone like Justin Blackmon) would probably take 2-3 years to develop, assuming he doesn't completely bust. That is just in time for them to hit free agency too and keep the endless cycle turning.

Post of the thread. MJT should just drop the mic and walk off. I have to say, I'm sick of hearing things like "they can lose without him" or "that'll take us from 5-11 to 4-12. Big deal." That's a great mentality, if you're content to be a fan of a loser team for the rest of your life. Focus on WINNING. Does Stevie contribute to wins? YES. As much as you'd like? Maybe not. Is it easier to win with a good player like Stevie or without him? WITH.

 

If the Bills let Stevie walk, what's the alternative? What's the opportunity cost? If you agree to his contract demands (my guess: something like 4 years, $35mil, but almost all guaranteed, and that's why the Bills rejected it), you might be overpaying him, but not by a lot. He's definitely an above-average NFL starter and has great chemistry with his QB. If you let him go, who do you replace him with? Does anyone actually think that Vincent Jackson or DeSean Jackson will be available for the same price as Stevie? I'll take that bet. And by the way, Vincent Jackson is one of the most maddeningly inconsistent players in the league, and has had multiple contract holdouts. And DeSean Jackson is a smurf who only runs fly patterns. Or do the Bills go WR in the first round, eschewing (potentially) a franchise QB, or a stud pass rusher, or a really good OT, or -- wonder of wonders -- a good WR to COMPLEMENT Stevie? You realize that some NFL teams have multiple good players, right? We could be one of those teams! We already have some good players. If we keep them, and draft other good players to play alongside them, then we might win some more games! I know it sounds crazy, and doesn't mesh with recent Bills' philosophy, but why don't we try it for a change? It's so crazy it might just work.

[Sisyphean Bills]

The whole "Diva Showmanship" act thing may not have been the wisest path to endear himself to the Bills front office and coaching staff ... guys that are (ahem) quite literally old school.

[Trader]

He is more like a middle of the pack #2, or slightly above, receiver in my opinion.

There has to be better receivers out there that can be hired for 9 mil.

I hope both sides come to a deal and he stays in Buffalo, but I don't blame Nix in this case for wanting to pay him what he deserves.

 

So are you going to buy Marcus Easley as his replacement and be content with them signing some UDFA to upgrade the receiving corps?

[stony]

You Franchise him and get a deal done by 2013. You cant bleed off your top talent and expect to rebuild a team. And if you look at the Bills roster, you definitely cant let your top WR walk away.

Im not saying break the bank, or pay him Fitzgerald money, but you have to get a deal done.

 

Exacty. And instead of making him lead a whos-who corps of WRs, you draft a quality guy to actually help him.

[apuszczalowski]

They go out and find someone else who can drop routine catches at critical times in games.

 

If he thinks he deserves #1 WR money comparable to the top 15-20 WR's in the league, he is dreaming. He would make a fine #2 WR (or a #1B), but he is not the kind of guy teams need as a #1 WR. Watch other games besides the Bills and you will see what WR's can do. You will see WR's that go out and make catches of passes thrown right to them AND badly thrown balls. He struggles to make critical catches in pressure situations, and does not make any catches that other WR's can't make.

 

If its the celebrations your worried about losing, Ocho might be available again this offseason.........

[CodeMonkey]

So are you going to buy Marcus Easley as his replacement and be content with them signing some UDFA to upgrade the receiving corps?

Nope because there are other (better in my opinion) FA WR's out there.

But your point that Nix/Brandon may try and spin Easley as Johnsons replacement while they draft or UDFA another WR is highly plausible given the teams past record.

[Ramius]

They go out and find someone else who can drop routine catches at critical times in games.

 

If he thinks he deserves #1 WR money comparable to the top 15-20 WR's in the league, he is dreaming. He would make a fine #2 WR (or a #1B), but he is not the kind of guy teams need as a #1 WR. Watch other games besides the Bills and you will see what WR's can do. You will see WR's that go out and make catches of passes thrown right to them AND badly thrown balls. He struggles to make critical catches in pressure situations, and does not make any catches that other WR's can't make.

 

If its the celebrations your worried about losing, Ocho might be available again this offseason.........

 

Stevie is easily one of the top 20-25 WRs in the league. You don't let guys like him walk. You keep them around, even if you have to overpay a bit. What you do is go sign a deep threat to complement Stevie.

 

According to most fan standards, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Andre Johnson are the only "#1" WRs in the NFL.

[mountainwampus]

Stevie is easily one of the top 20-25 WRs in the league. You don't let guys like him walk. You keep them around, even if you have to overpay a bit. What you do is go sign a deep threat to complement Stevie.

 

According to most fan standards, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Andre Johnson are the only "#1" WRs in the NFL.

 

I don't see him as top 20-25. I look around the league and EVERY TEAM has at least one receiver I'd prefer over SJ. Statistically, he's at #24 right now (yards receiving). BUT, his lack of hands, intelligence, and potential are very obvious.

 

Some guys i'd prefer over him who are statistically lower:

 

Percy Harvin

Golden Tate

Deion Branch

Dez Bryant

Reggie Wayne

Desean Jackson

Mike Williams (TB)

Michael Crabtree

 

So, I place him at #32

 

I say draft the best available WR with the 1st pick.

[johnnychemo]

If they want to have any hope of attracting quality talent to this team via free agency, they pretty much have to sign him, even if it means overpaying a bit. They have to show a commitment to their players, to having a quality team, and a willingness to pay for those things. That said, I'm personally not optimistic.

[qwksilver]

If they are apart by 2 million apart, then the middle is about 8 mill per.That seems about right for his type of player. I say get ir done Buddy.

 

They can not let him walk, unless they are going to sign his relacement (Bowe or one of the Jackson's) ortherwise this is a complete fail by the FO.

 

You cant keep (attempting to) replacing positional needs with draft picks. The needs will never get completely filled. The FO has been spinning its wheels for WTFL.

Edited December 15, 2011 by qwksilver

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

I would not have an issue if Stevie dropped balls in the first half BUT when it comes to game winning catches - the man chokes!

[Dopey]

I don't see him as top 20-25. I look around the league and EVERY TEAM has at least one receiver I'd prefer over SJ. Statistically, he's at #24 right now (yards receiving). BUT, his lack of hands, intelligence, and potential are very obvious.

 

Some guys i'd prefer over him who are statistically lower:

 

Percy Harvin

Golden Tate

Deion Branch

Dez Bryant

Reggie Wayne

Desean Jackson

Mike Williams (TB)

Michael Crabtree

 

So, I place him at #32

 

I say draft the best available WR with the 1st pick.

You would pay Crabtree more than Stevie?! Mike Wlliams?!Out of this list, I would only take Dez and maybe Reggie(he's alot older). As for the rest maybe Tate and that's a big maybe. I can't see those guys doing what Stevie did to Revis. With a better compliment on the other side, OR a nice pass recieving TE, Stevie would put up #1 type numbers. Most people say this now, 'till we get rid of him and complain when he does well elsewhere(Maybin, Mcgahee, etc.). By the way, you say you place him at 32. How many teams are there in the NFL? If my math is right I count 32. So you have him at 32 and he's definetly not a #1, right?!

[DrDawkinstein]

You would pay Crabtree more than Stevie?! Mike Wlliams?!Out of this list, I would only take Dez and maybe Reggie(he's alot older). As for the rest maybe Tate and that's a big maybe. I can't see those guys doing what Stevie did to Revis. With a better compliment on the other side, OR a nice pass recieving TE, Stevie would put up #1 type numbers. Most people say this now, 'till we get rid of him and complain when he does well elsewhere(Maybin, Mcgahee, etc.). By the way, you say you place him at 32. How many teams are there in the NFL? If my math is right I count 32. So you have him at 32 and he's definetly not a #1, right?!

 

agreed.

 

And even at that, Dez and Stevie have VERY similar numbers...

 

Dez Bryant: 47 catches, 756 yards, 8TDs. Catcing 47 out of his 82 Targets for a catch percentage of 57%

Stevie Johnson: 63 catches, 790 yards, 6 TDS. Catching 63 out of his 111 targets for a catch percentage of 57%

 

Also, the Cowboys spent a 1st round pick to get that production. Stevie was a 7th. Much better value and even more reason to over-invest a little bit when it comes to SJ's contract.

[Heels20X6]

They go out and find someone else who can drop routine catches at critical times in games.

 

If he thinks he deserves #1 WR money comparable to the top 15-20 WR's in the league, he is dreaming. He would make a fine #2 WR (or a #1B), but he is not the kind of guy teams need as a #1 WR. Watch other games besides the Bills and you will see what WR's can do. You will see WR's that go out and make catches of passes thrown right to them AND badly thrown balls. He struggles to make critical catches in pressure situations, and does not make any catches that other WR's can't make.

 

If its the celebrations your worried about losing, Ocho might be available again this offseason.........

 

Yeah, every #1 receiver is out there making Revis look stupid. And every receiver can make that great sideline grab he did last week.

 

The amount of stupid in this one post is remarkable.

[Paup 1995MVP]

i kinda like hagan..he woulda had a monster game sunday of fitzy werent heaving wounded ducks

There you go. I agree. Hagan is an NFL caliber WR. He has size and can run. I would definitely keep him around for next season as one of our top 5 receivers. Where are all the man crushes coming from for Stevie? Sure he is a GOOD receiver. But with him being SO Good, our record is 9-20. He is not a great receiver. He makes the catches all receivers are supposed to make. He is NOT a burner. He is NOT big. And he certainly does NOT make the spectacular catch. That being said, we should try and resign him. But we need another bigtime receiver to complement him if we are to improve on offense..

 

My biggest point is that on a team as bad as ours, I can not see being so emphatic about resigning anyone on this roster short of Freddy. How many of you think that Stevie would even be in the top three receivers on Green Bay or New Orleans? And I am being serious. If the Bills had any savvy, they would make a solid offer to Stevie. If he doesn't want it let him go and bring in at least 3 top flite guys. That happens and everyone is saying Stevie who. But knowing Buddy Nix, I doubt that will happen.

[marshawnsdreads23]

The texans just got good these last 2 years, and andre johnson arguably the best receiver in football has been there a long time so saying the bills are 9-20 with stevie is just nonsense, theyre 9-20 because the bills havent fielded a good TEAM.

 

If he does move on to another team though, I would be really upset with the front office considering buddy nix himself said that they wouldnt be very active in free agency during his tenure, rather focusing on building through the draft and resigning their own guys. Regardless of whether he stays or leaves, it will send a huge message to the league and bills fans about the direction of this team

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

 

I mean, if they do actually draft some All-Pro talent it will be YEARS before those rookie contracts are due. So since they shouldn't pay the stars that they don't have what is the plan to do with the savings over the next 4-5 years?

 

I mean, honestly, if the net profits the Bills made in the last twelve years were kept in an interest bearing account they'd have more than a quarter of a billion in cash to spend over and above their cash to the cap excuse. That is not the way it works......it gets pocketed or burned on front office faves like Chris Kelsay....so remember that when you are hypothetically saving Ralph's money for him.

Wouldn't it be ironic if Ralph was being cheap, and "pocketing" all that money every year, so that there would be enough accumulated free cash available to pay the required estate taxes without selling the team after Ralph dies? I have no reason to believe that Ralph's "savings" are being earmarked for that purpose, but it sure would make a lot of us look silly if Ralph's cheapness created an "estate tax fund" that ultimately saved the team for the city of Buffalo.

 

It would only make sense if Ralph's heirs collectively wanted to find a way to overcome the estate tax obstacle and continue to own the team. Seems unlikely, but with TV contracts laying ever larger golden eggs, is it possible?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Wouldn't it be ironic if Ralph was being cheap, and "pocketing" all that money every year, so that there would be enough accumulated free cash available to pay the required estate taxes without selling the team after Ralph dies? I have no reason to believe that Ralph's "savings" are being earmarked for that purpose, but it sure would make a lot of us look silly if Ralph's cheapness created an "estate tax fund" that ultimately saved the team for the city of Buffalo.

 

It would only make sense if Ralph's heirs collectively wanted to find a way to overcome the estate tax obstacle and continue to own the team. Seems unlikely, but with TV contracts laying ever larger golden eggs, is it possible?

That's funny.

 

We'd all have to make a pilgrimage to his grave site to cry tears of contrition and gratitude.