Message sent by Fitz

[Repulsif]

in the Pats game.

 

I don't remember exactly when it was, but for sure it was in 1st quarter.

Trailing 14, 4th and 14 (18?) at NE 40 (35?), they go for it, Fitz throws long and is intercepted.

 

For me the message was "I don't care of my stats, I just want to win by any means".

He could have throw it out of bounds.

I just think it was a (yes) smart throw by forcing it.

 

The worst thing that could happen is an int (ok the very worst could be a pick for 6), but even in this case the ball goes back to NE at a further position on the field.

 

I've seen too a teamate putting a tap on his shoulder after that. They knew he was doing his best for a win.

 

A thought about that ?

(and please don't start the grammar flamming, english is not my native language)

Edited September 30, 2011 by Repulsif

[Defend Greece]

Well I kind of agree, my buddy was yelling like it was the stupidest play ever but I thought it was the right call but a bad throw

[maryland-bills-fan]

Throwing a couple of deep ones, gives you 2 yards offset from the safeties for the entire game, relative to never airing it out.

[West End Stench]

That was the smart play in that situation.

 

The play was 4th and 14 at NE 35, the pass was intercepted by Arrington at the NE 20, and returned to the NE 30. If the pass is incomplete, the Pats get the ball at their own 35 instead of their own 30. Besides getting a first down, or a reception between the NE 30 and 20 (Turnover on downs), this was maybe the third best outcome of this play, where throwing the ball out of bounds or grounding it would have been boneheaded. 90% of the time when you draw up a play like that on 4th down, you force the issue down the field.

[Albany,n.y.]

 

He could have throw it out of bounds.

Only Drew Bledsoe throws it out of bounds on 4th down, and only a dumb DB catches it deeper downfield on 4th down.

[Big Turk]

Maybe, but Edwards one ups him by running out of bounds without even attempting a throw because he was afraid of throwing an INT on 4th and game over...

[Nostradamus]

I think the OP brings up a good point. One thing that this team has going for them is they are all gamers, football players in the truest sense of the word. Consider:

 

1. Donald Jones. Going back to that game saving play against the Raiders, Jones showed as much effort to break up the pass as most receivers would to catch a ball in the endzone. Lee Evans does NOT make that play.

 

2. Fred Jackson. He puts as much effort in lead blocking and picking up a blitz as most RB's do to find the endzone on a fourth and goal.

 

3. Fitzy. He did make the tackle on the first INT, where Marcia stood back and watched Florence run into the endzone.

 

Maybe the explanation for why the Bills have bucked the oddsmakers and got off to a 3-0 start is simpler than anyone can imagine. Maybe the Bills just try a little bit harder than their opponents.

[Meark]

Maybe, but Edwards one ups him by running out of bounds without even attempting a throw because he was afraid of throwing an INT on 4th and game over...

 

UG.. why did you have to bring that up.. One of the most frustrating plays in recent history..

[John from Riverside]

I though we should have kicked the long field goal....

 

But I get it....it is time to start changing the mentality of this team.....dont settle.....go for the win not the tie or playing not to lose

[muffmonster]

UG.. why did you have to bring that up.. One of the most frustrating plays in recent history..

 

Umm yeah old memories that should not be brought up. How far we have come.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Only Drew Bledsoe throws it out of bounds on 4th down, and only a dumb DB catches it deeper downfield on 4th down.

 

Maybe, but Edwards one ups him by running out of bounds without even attempting a throw because he was afraid of throwing an INT on 4th and game over...

On 3 occasions that I vividly remember, Rob Johnson was flushed from the pocket and ran out of bounds for a loss of yardage…

 

this was after the NFL changed the intentional grounding rule and thus allowed QBs to throw the ball away when they were outside "the tackle box" as long as the ball reached the line of scrimmage.

 

Bone-headed, stat-conscious moron.

 

 

[Trader]

I think the OP brings up a good point. One thing that this team has going for them is they are all gamers, football players in the truest sense of the word. Consider:

 

1. Donald Jones. Going back to that game saving play against the Raiders, Jones showed as much effort to break up the pass as most receivers would to catch a ball in the endzone. Lee Evans does NOT make that play.

 

2. Fred Jackson. He puts as much effort in lead blocking and picking up a blitz as most RB's do to find the endzone on a fourth and goal.

 

3. Fitzy. He did make the tackle on the first INT, where Marcia stood back and watched Florence run into the endzone.

 

Maybe the explanation for why the Bills have bucked the oddsmakers and got off to a 3-0 start is simpler than anyone can imagine. Maybe the Bills just try a little bit harder than their opponents.

 

Do you want Fitzpatrick at 3-0 making tackles? If he goes down for the season would you still applaud his decision? Brady did the smart thing the Pats are still in the hunt for the playoffs. If Brady goes down the Pats are in the same spot as the Colts.

[vincec]

That play reeked of panic. The right call would've been field goal, IMO. It's the first quarter. Get on the scoreboard. That kick is within Lindell's range. If it was 4th and 5 then maybe go for it, but the percentages on 4th and 14 are so low.

[Repulsif]

That play reeked of panic. The right call would've been field goal, IMO. It's the first quarter. Get on the scoreboard. That kick is within Lindell's range. If it was 4th and 5 then maybe go for it, but the percentages on 4th and 14 are so low.

 

From the NE35, how long is the kick ? is it a 52 yarder ?

How are the odds for Lindell at that distance ?

(it's a true question)

[Albany,n.y.]

From the NE35, how long is the kick ? is it a 52 yarder ?

How are the odds for Lindell at that distance ?

(it's a true question)

He's 18 for 33, 54.5 % on FG attempts >/= 50 yards.

[Fixxxer]

Only Drew Bledsoe throws it out of bounds on 4th down, and only a dumb DB catches it deeper downfield on 4th down.

 

Exhibit B: Nate Clements against the Jags in the 2004 season opener. Going for the INT instead of batting down a 4th down pass.

 

Classic Nate, playing for himself, hope we see the same from him this Sunday.

[wonderbread]

Exhibit B: Nate Clements against the Jags in the 2004 season opener. Going for the INT instead of batting down a 4th down pass.

 

Classic Nate, playing for himself, hope we see the same from him this Sunday.

Well in Nate's defense he did get paid. Maybe in the grand scheme of things he was looking out for himself or just caught up in the moment. Hard to say either way. To bad Twittner isn't on the Bengals I would have loved seeing him against the Bills.

Edited October 1, 2011 by wonderbread

[Hapless Bills Fan]

That play reeked of panic. The right call would've been field goal, IMO. It's the first quarter. Get on the scoreboard. That kick is within Lindell's range. If it was 4th and 5 then maybe go for it, but the percentages on 4th and 14 are so low.

 

It's what, a 42 yard field goal? Lindell is about 60% in that range.

 

So there's a 30% chance we give the Pats the ball on our 42 yd line.

 

Making a long pass attempt to convert, essentially was like a short punt. The ball was intercepted on the 20 yrd line, except by a DB rather than a return specialist.

 

There's a chance we could have converted, and if we'd tackled a bit better it would potentially have come out better than a punt.

 

You might disagree with the call, but it hardly "reeked of panic." It's outside the box football, taking a calculated risk (fumbled snap or sack would have been bad), and sending a message "get ready, 'cuz the Bills aren't going to color between the lines any more."

[DrDawkinstein]

Only Drew Bledsoe throws it out of bounds on 4th down, and only a dumb DB catches it deeper downfield on 4th down.

 

This is it.

 

Basically it was a punt, but a punt with a chance of keeping the ball.

 

We were juuuust outside FG range, but too close for Moorman to boot one. Go for it on 4th, and put the ball up. We make the 1st, great. An INT in that situation is better than no one catching it.

 

It was a SMART call by Gailey AND Fitz. Two guys who know situational football and how to apply it on gameday. They put us in a win-win situation and made the best out of a 4th down.

 

Good call!

 

It's what, a 42 yard field goal? Lindell is about 60% in that range.

 

So there's a 30% chance we give the Pats the ball on our 42 yd line.

 

52 yarder, so your point is even stronger.

[atlbillsfan1975]

He's 18 for 33, 54.5 % on FG attempts >/= 50 yards.

don tlike those odds in that situation.

At that point NE was moving the ball at will.

So you had a 50/50 chance of giving them the ball at the 42.

No thanks, liked the call, and liked Fitz saying "F it, i am gonna put it in play and hope MY guys get it".

[Wooderson]

It's what, a 42 yard field goal? Lindell is about 60% in that range.

 

So there's a 30% chance we give the Pats the ball on our 42 yd line.

 

Making a long pass attempt to convert, essentially was like a short punt. The ball was intercepted on the 20 yrd line, except by a DB rather than a return specialist.

 

There's a chance we could have converted, and if we'd tackled a bit better it would potentially have come out better than a punt.

 

You might disagree with the call, but it hardly "reeked of panic." It's outside the box football, taking a calculated risk (fumbled snap or sack would have been bad), and sending a message "get ready, 'cuz the Bills aren't going to color between the lines any more."

 

52 yards. 35 yard line + 10 endzone + 7 for kicking space.

[FightinIrishBills]

This is a little ridiculous. Had the Bills not won this game, we would be savaging Fitz for that throw as an example of poor decision-making and unnecessary risk-taking. In fact, it might rightly have been called the backbreaker play that buried the Bills if not for some phenomenal gut-checking by this team in spite of, not because of, their earlier errors.

 

I love Fitzy as much as anyone but that was an ugly play. I'll give him credit when it's due but that play could have killed the game's momentum.

[Kelly the Dog]

He's 18 for 33, 54.5 % on FG attempts >/= 50 yards.

I'm curious as to why there isn't any discussion about the Chan decision not to kick a FG there. It was, what, 4th and 14? LIndell can easily kick a 52 yarder (I'd like to know the stats but I'd imagine that 54% becomes over 60% when 52 yards and less). It was a beautiful day and didnt seem to be much wind.

 

I don't think it was a no brainer either way, and Fitz has a habit of picking up 3rd and longs better than any Bills QB since Kelly. But I think if I were a coach I would have tried a FG there.

[Defend Greece]

This is a little ridiculous. Had the Bills not won this game, we would be savaging Fitz for that throw as an example of poor decision-making and unnecessary risk-taking. In fact, it might rightly have been called the backbreaker play that buried the Bills if not for some phenomenal gut-checking by this team in spite of, not because of, their earlier errors.

 

I love Fitzy as much as anyone but that was an ugly play. I'll give him credit when it's due but that play could have killed the game's momentum.

What momentum? What should he have done?

I think he had the right idea, get it to one of the big boys up high, he just under threw it

[Hapless Bills Fan]

52 yards. 35 yard line + 10 endzone + 7 for kicking space.

 

Thanks! I guess I'm showing my age as a football fan , forgetting they moved the goalposts to the back of the endzone.

 

Even better call in that case, Lindell is only 40% of recent years in that range.

[MRW]

This is a little ridiculous. Had the Bills not won this game, we would be savaging Fitz for that throw as an example of poor decision-making and unnecessary risk-taking. In fact, it might rightly have been called the backbreaker play that buried the Bills if not for some phenomenal gut-checking by this team in spite of, not because of, their earlier errors.

 

I love Fitzy as much as anyone but that was an ugly play. I'll give him credit when it's due but that play could have killed the game's momentum.

I don't think so. It was 4th and 14, he had to try to make some kind of play there. Regardless of the outcome of the game that play would never qualify as a backbreaker.

[plenzmd1]

My thought at the time was that before the game the kicker tells the coach where he can hit from going in each direction, and Lindell did not tell him 52 in that direction. I like going for it way better than punting I can tell you that.

 

Also, when are thjese dumb DB's going to just knock down 4th down passes...

[BILLieve in B-LO]

in the Pats game.

 

I don't remember exactly when it was, but for sure it was in 1st quarter.

Trailing 14, 4th and 14 (18?) at NE 40 (35?), they go for it, Fitz throws long and is intercepted.

 

For me the message was "I don't care of my stats, I just want to win by any means".

He could have throw it out of bounds.

I just think it was a (yes) smart throw by forcing it.

 

The worst thing that could happen is an int (ok the very worst could be a pick for 6), but even in this case the ball goes back to NE at a further position on the field.

 

I've seen too a teamate putting a tap on his shoulder after that. They knew he was doing his best for a win.

 

A thought about that ?

(and please don't start the grammar flamming, english is not my native language)

 

Awesome post!

cant speak for everyone else but that is exactly the kind of mindset that makes a good QB, a winning QB... and yes there is a difference

[Repulsif]

From the point of view I wanted to make, I think it has a little disgressed, at start I just wanted to point that the last time I saw in Buffalo a go for it that earlier in the game was (possibly) in the Flutie/Wade Phillips era.

I see Jauron/mularkey punting, and Lostman, Bledsoe running for a loss or a 2 yard gain or an out of bounds throw.

 

An interesting thing too :

 

- Pats game, 1st quarter, trailing 14, 4 and 14 at NE 35, they go for it.

- Raiders game, 2nd(?) quarter, trailing 14, 4th and 1 at OAK 15 (?), they kick it.

 

Where is the decision differance ?

I think of multiple factors.

 

- Raiders game.

may be they estimated at that distance, a FG is a 90-95% sure thing, and converting a 4th and 1 at the current momemtum was a 50% ? 40% ? I'm not sure too the Raiders were converting every drive to a score.

- Pats game.

Trailing 14 ; if I remember well they were just scoring at will.

Kicking a 52 yarder is a 50/50 (40/60) ?

Going for it 4th and 14 is what ? a 40% converting ?

I just think it was a momentum thing.

Missing the FG would have iced the fighting spirit.

 

just my 2 cents.

[jumbalaya]

I'd thrown a jump ball at the goal line. Either our WR or TE make a play on the ball or on the DB that catches it. Because you know every DB in the league tries to catch that ball because they are all about the stat and not making the smart play to just knock it down and take the field position.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

This is a little ridiculous. Had the Bills not won this game, we would be savaging Fitz for that throw as an example of poor decision-making and unnecessary risk-taking. In fact, it might rightly have been called the backbreaker play that buried the Bills if not for some phenomenal gut-checking by this team in spite of, not because of, their earlier errors.

 

I love Fitzy as much as anyone but that was an ugly play. I'll give him credit when it's due but that play could have killed the game's momentum.

 

You're probably right that some here would be saying that, and I'd be just as puzzled as to why.

 

The momentum breaker was the 15 yd penalty and the busted plays that put us into 4th and 14.

 

Throwing an INT on 4th and 14 actually gives the opponents WORSE field position than an incompletion

An incompletion gives the opponents worse field position than a missed 52 yd field goal (a low percentage kick for Lindell of recent years).

 

What is so hard to grasp about this logic? This is smart football play calling on Chan's part - aggressive, but smart - and the NE player who made the INT (sorry, I don't remember) only saved himself from a double-barreled earful by making a decent runback from the 20 to the 30.

 

Even so, he probably got an earful. He should have let it fall incomplete and given the Pats the ball on the LOS (35).