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Why I believe the Gailey wants to trade down


Virgil

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First of all, I believe the Bills will stay at 3 and would be happy with whoever they get.

 

However, I think Gailey is hoping that some team will come along and make him an offer he can't refuse. I only say this in response to the two comments he made over the past 24 hours around wanting to stay at #3 and it being a perfect time to draft a QB. I think he is trying to generate concern that he will take someone's person and get the panic going for other teams.

 

Again, I know that this is the time where you can't believe anything you hear. And again, I think they will ultimately stay at 3. But, I also doubt that Gailey is the only straight shooter about what his team wants in the draft.

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First of all, I believe the Bills will stay at 3 and would be happy with whoever they get.

 

However, I think Gailey is hoping that some team will come along and make him an offer he can't refuse. I only say this in response to the two comments he made over the past 24 hours around wanting to stay at #3 and it being a perfect time to draft a QB. I think he is trying to generate concern that he will take someone's person and get the panic going for other teams.

 

Again, I know that this is the time where you can't believe anything you hear. And again, I think they will ultimately stay at 3. But, I also doubt that Gailey is the only straight shooter about what his team wants in the draft.

Incredible insight. Have you not read the other 15 posts saying the same thing?

 

Again, the teams that want gabbert would try and trade up with denver, ahead of us. Why would they take the chance to let gabbert fall to us and have us decline the trade because we want him. I just don't understand the philosophy, unless they are doing so so they can get Denver out of the 2nd spot so we can draft Dareus. Sire, there's a chance they can't work out a deal with Denver and they'll call us, but I can't see Denver not accepting a deal in which they trade down a couple spots and get someones 2nd, maybe more.

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gailey can want whatever he wants. but i think Nix is the boss and as much input gailey has im pretty sure nix calls the shots. while ralph is not butting in.

Ralph is the boss. No questions asked

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Trading down is very hard. Teams don't want to invest in top 5 money for an unproven college kid. The Bills may want to trade down bur they need a partner first. That's not easy.

 

Trading down is very hard. Teams don't want to invest in top 5 money for an unproven college kid. The Bills may want to trade down bur they need a partner first. That's not easy.

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From what I've read its not Gailey making the picks this year, he has stated its all Buddy Nix. If Buddy Nix was wide awake during last years draft he could have traded back and fixed the O line in one year by selecting both Brian Bulaga and Rodger Saffold. Lets face it, CJ Spiller was a wasted pick at this point for the amount he contributed last season.

 

If Buddy Nix is awake for this years draft HE WILL trade back, the reason is very clear to me.... 20 million dollars guaranteed to a rookie who may or may not be a blue chipper. Unless Nix scouts these first 10 players and KNOWS himself that a blue chip player will be drafted with that #3 overall, then go for it. If the guy has any doubts about any players that will be there after Carolina and Denver make their selections, then trade back and still get that DE AND RT and save the Bills all that guaranteed money.

 

Lets say that Carolina selects Darius, and Denver selects Von Miller, at that point Buffalo is left with DB Peterson... If they choose not to take the CB, then trade with Washinton or another team with a top 15 pick. Meanwhile with 10 DE's first round worthy they could draft a DE with the first pick and they trade back up and take a OT or a TE, Kyle Rudolph.

 

If Von Miller is there at #3 then the Bills will select him, if he is gone then trade back and get that DE, OT or TE

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From what I've read its not Gailey making the picks this year, he has stated its all Buddy Nix. If Buddy Nix was wide awake during last years draft he could have traded back and fixed the O line in one year by selecting both Brian Bulaga and Rodger Saffold. Lets face it, CJ Spiller was a wasted pick at this point for the amount he contributed last season.

 

If Buddy Nix is awake for this years draft HE WILL trade back, the reason is very clear to me.... 20 million dollars guaranteed to a rookie who may or may not be a blue chipper. Unless Nix scouts these first 10 players and KNOWS himself that a blue chip player will be drafted with that #3 overall, then go for it. If the guy has any doubts about any players that will be there after Carolina and Denver make their selections, then trade back and still get that DE AND RT and save the Bills all that guaranteed money.

 

Lets say that Carolina selects Darius, and Denver selects Von Miller, at that point Buffalo is left with DB Peterson... If they choose not to take the CB, then trade with Washinton or another team with a top 15 pick. Meanwhile with 10 DE's first round worthy they could draft a DE with the first pick and they trade back up and take a OT or a TE, Kyle Rudolph.

 

If Von Miller is there at #3 then the Bills will select him, if he is gone then trade back and get that DE, OT or TE

That is the problem with the Bills, it's all about saving money, not about competing for the title. I hope the cheapskates trade down, get a bunch of good but not quite ready players, stink it up again but grow this season and get to draft Luck next year. that is the best we can hope for with these money first, team second franchise

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Washington would be our best trade down , by the value chart we could get their 1st this year #10 and 2nd rnd #41 this year "and" their #1st rnd. pick in 2012.

I could see this trade happen .

 

My mock would then have us take Cam Jordan at 10,Martez Wilson at 34,Kyle Rudolph at 41,Dontay Moch at 68, CB and OT in the 4th rnd,and BPA after that.

 

Well it could happen....Go Bills.

 

Oh I forgot , Redskins then go 3 and 13 and we draft Luck next year.

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For the life of me, I'll never understand this board's infatuation with trading down.

 

First, there's the issue of what kind of sense it makes for a lousy team to trade out of a prime spot. Yes, sometimes teams do it and pick up an extra pick or two; that doesn't mean it's a great strategy. Why on earth would a team that hasn't had a top 5 pick in 9 years, despite performing dreadfully in perpetuity, waste the opportunity to get a top 5 talent? There couldn't possibly be a good excuse for doing it.

 

Secondly, there's the idea that teams actually want to trade up. Folks, there's a reason that there's been exactly 1 trade involving a top 5 pick since 2004 (the Jets moving up for Sanchez). Teams simply don't want to give up draft picks (considered a premium in the league) for the chance to give $30M+ in guarantees to an unproven player.

 

Lastly, there's this idea that--for some reason--it's more acceptable to draft certain players/positions later than others. That, in my mind, is hogwash. If a guy can be a difference-maker, just pick him; don't screw around and risk missing out on him. If you think, for example, that J.J. Watt or Cameron Jordan is the best option for your team, take him at No. 3. Five years from now, we'll only care if he was the right pick, not if we picked him at No. 3 or No. 12.

 

Sorry if this sounds like an attack, but if someone can please explain to me why they think that trading down is the end-all, be-all of draft strategies, I'm listening.

 

/rant over.

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From what I've read its not Gailey making the picks this year, he has stated its all Buddy Nix. If Buddy Nix was wide awake during last years draft he could have traded back and fixed the O line in one year by selecting both Brian Bulaga and Rodger Saffold. Lets face it, CJ Spiller was a wasted pick at this point for the amount he contributed last season.

 

Show me proof that Nix didn't try and trade down? Or are you just throwing crap at the wall and hoping something sticks? Brian Bulaga? Isn't that the same guy that failed miserably as a guard for the Packers and only started because of injuries?

 

If Buddy Nix is awake for this years draft HE WILL trade back, the reason is very clear to me.... 20 million dollars guaranteed to a rookie who may or may not be a blue chipper. Unless Nix scouts these first 10 players and KNOWS himself that a blue chip player will be drafted with that #3 overall, then go for it. If the guy has any doubts about any players that will be there after Carolina and Denver make their selections, then trade back and still get that DE AND RT and save the Bills all that guaranteed money.

 

Lets say that Carolina selects Darius, and Denver selects Von Miller, at that point Buffalo is left with DB Peterson... If they choose not to take the CB, then trade with Washinton or another team with a top 15 pick. Meanwhile with 10 DE's first round worthy they could draft a DE with the first pick and they trade back up and take a OT or a TE, Kyle Rudolph.

 

If Von Miller is there at #3 then the Bills will select him, if he is gone then trade back and get that DE, OT or TE

 

I love how it's so easy to trade a top 3 pick these days. I guess the fact that there is no CBA makes things so much more easier. :wallbash:

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no matter the year, no matter the inclination, if there is a team watering at the mount for a Gabbert, a Von Miller, a Peterson or an AJ Green and their guy lasts for the first two picks, there is a good possibility they will come to us. I think that trade will be made on draft day with very little notice. I suspect there will be some very interesting phone calls between picks two and three.

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First of all, I believe the Bills will stay at 3 and would be happy with whoever they get.

 

However, I think Gailey is hoping that some team will come along and make him an offer he can't refuse. I only say this in response to the two comments he made over the past 24 hours around wanting to stay at #3 and it being a perfect time to draft a QB. I think he is trying to generate concern that he will take someone's person and get the panic going for other teams.

 

Again, I know that this is the time where you can't believe anything you hear. And again, I think they will ultimately stay at 3. But, I also doubt that Gailey is the only straight shooter about what his team wants in the draft.

Pretty smart post.

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I think we like the trade down because we all know we have many holes that need to be filled by quality people.

 

If I were drafting, I wouldn't mind dropping from 3- 5 or even 6 and pick up a extra 2nd round pick.

 

I think we have to realize that we can't fix everything in 1 year, it takes a while for rookies to perform.

 

But if we stay where we are at 3 and pick Miller, I think we need to get 2 DT as we cut Stroud and didn't re-sign McCargo.

 

O.T we had better pick 2 of them as well, because our RT situation is bad bad bad with the dudes we got.

 

We need another CB, McGee is getting old and were not sure if Florence will re-sign in Buffalo.

 

We also need a ILB who hits like a truck.

 

Our last 2 picks - are nothing more than meat for training camp and wont make the team at 7th round picks. But Maybe another corner and ILB

 

 

Notice we didn't address the QB- that is next year, we go heavy defense this year, and maybe next year somehow we get Andrew Luck to fall into our laps.

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I think we like the trade down because we all know we have many holes that need to be filled by quality people.

 

If I were drafting, I wouldn't mind dropping from 3- 5 or even 6 and pick up a extra 2nd round pick.

 

I think we have to realize that we can't fix everything in 1 year, it takes a while for rookies to perform.

 

But if we stay where we are at 3 and pick Miller, I think we need to get 2 DT as we cut Stroud and didn't re-sign McCargo.

 

O.T we had better pick 2 of them as well, because our RT situation is bad bad bad with the dudes we got.

 

We need another CB, McGee is getting old and were not sure if Florence will re-sign in Buffalo.

 

We also need a ILB who hits like a truck.

 

Our last 2 picks - are nothing more than meat for training camp and wont make the team at 7th round picks. But Maybe another corner and ILB

 

 

Notice we didn't address the QB- that is next year, we go heavy defense this year, and maybe next year somehow we get Andrew Luck to fall into our laps.

 

I understand, but my point is this: when you drop down, even a few spots, you're denying yourself the chance to draft an elite player. If you want to fill talent gaps on this team, isn't it better to go after a top-notch player than risk missing out on him for the chance to get another lesser-talent later?

 

Also, there's no way that dropping down 2 or 3 spots is going to net a 2nd round pick. If Buffalo moved from 3 down outside the top 10, then there's a chance of nabbing an extra 2nd rounder, but now you've really put yourself outside the top tier of talent.

 

And if you believe what you say, that you can't fix everything in one year, why worry about getting an extra pick and missing out on an elite talent? Just get the best players you can get with the picks you have, and re-assess after 2011.

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Trading down is very hard. Teams don't want to invest in top 5 money for an unproven college kid. The Bills may want to trade down bur they need a partner first. That's not easy.

 

Trading down is very hard. Teams don't want to invest in top 5 money for an unproven college kid. The Bills may want to trade down bur they need a partner first. That's not easy.

 

I'm gonna go get the papers...get the papers. "C.Biscuit - 2 Times"

 

I honestly don't believe that the Bills have any intention of selecting a QB at #3. I believe that they are doing their absolute best to give other teams (i.e., Arizona, San Fran, Washington, etc...) the impression that we really like Newton and Gabbert. If when draft day comes around the phone rings, and they get a reasonable offer from one of these teams, I think they will pull the trigger and trade back in the 1st. I have mentioned before that I think the most likely scenario is a trade back with San Fransisco.

 

A lot will depend on whether or not Newton goes to Carolina at #1. Then Denver will have the option to take the best player in the draft (because Newton is not that player), so I do not believe they will be willing to move down. That means that Gabbert conveniently slides to #3 and the offers come pouring in. At least that's how it plays out in my little fantasy world.

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I understand, but my point is this: when you drop down, even a few spots, you're denying yourself the chance to draft an elite player. If you want to fill talent gaps on this team, isn't it better to go after a top-notch player than risk missing out on him for the chance to get another lesser-talent later?

 

Also, there's no way that dropping down 2 or 3 spots is going to net a 2nd round pick. If Buffalo moved from 3 down outside the top 10, then there's a chance of nabbing an extra 2nd rounder, but now you've really put yourself outside the top tier of talent.

 

And if you believe what you say, that you can't fix everything in one year, why worry about getting an extra pick and missing out on an elite talent? Just get the best players you can get with the picks you have, and re-assess after 2011.

 

 

I disagree with this....elite players can be found out of the 1st 5 picks....and Nix has already said they wouldn't trade out of the top 10

 

There are SEVERAL guys who would help this team immediately in that range

 

- Robert Quinn.....this guy would start for us immediately

- Cam Jordon.....might be the best 3-4 end in this draft

- JJ Watt.....he might also be the best 3-4 end in this draft

 

 

My point on all this is with our needs there are guys that could help us immediately....like start from day one

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I disagree with this....elite players can be found out of the 1st 5 picks....and Nix has already said they wouldn't trade out of the top 10

 

There are SEVERAL guys who would help this team immediately in that range

 

- Robert Quinn.....this guy would start for us immediately

- Cam Jordon.....might be the best 3-4 end in this draft

- JJ Watt.....he might also be the best 3-4 end in this draft

 

 

My point on all this is with our needs there are guys that could help us immediately....like start from day one

 

Of course elite players can be found outside the top 5, but that's not really the issue. The issue is that, at No. 3 overall, you have your choice of any college football player in the country save for 2. If they feel that all of the guys you mentioned can help, why wouldn't they just draft the guy that they like the best at No. 3? Would you agree that it's highly likely that Nix and Co. prefer one of those players to the others? Why risk losing out on the player you like the most when you don't have to?

 

To me, it's not about just getting a guy that can help immediately; it's about getting the best player you can get. If player A grades out higher than player B, why move down? Just take player A...that's my point.

Edited by thebandit27
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If Buffalo moved from 3 down outside the top 10, then there's a chance of nabbing an extra 2nd rounder, but now you've really put yourself outside the top tier of talent.

 

And if you believe what you say, that you can't fix everything in one year, why worry about getting an extra pick and missing out on an elite talent? Just get the best players you can get with the picks you have, and re-assess after 2011.

 

This years crop of defensive players show exceptional talent and there appears to be true 1st rnd ability thru the top of rnd 2.

 

The draft value chart what most teams use to fairly exchange draft slots shows the #3 pick to be worth 2200 pts. Washington for example would needs to give up it's #10 1300pts, #41 2nd rd 490 pts and next years 1st rnd which is unknown and is valued as a mid round pick at 1/2 value or 500 pts.This is a few points over but it is a sellers market, the Bills could sweeten it for them by returning a 4th rd pick # 99 or 125.

 

The Bills could still draft a stud defender that in other years might go much higher than #10, pick up a bonus starter at #41 Kyle Rudolph for example and use the 1st Rnd pick in 2012 as they see fit .I could see this play out with the Vikings as a partner also if Newton or Gabbert are there at #3.

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Of course elite players can be found outside the top 5, but that's not really the issue. The issue is that, at No. 3 overall, you have your choice of any college football player in the country save for 2. If they feel that all of the guys you mentioned can help, why wouldn't they just draft the guy that they like the best at No. 3? Would you agree that it's highly likely that Nix and Co. prefer one of those players to the others? Why risk losing out on the player you like the most when you don't have to?

 

To me, it's not about just getting a guy that can help immediately; it's about getting the best player you can get. If player A grades out higher than player B, why move down? Just take player A...that's my point.

 

 

OK.....lets just say for arguements sake (and by the way this is ALL ASSUMING that Darius is not there at 3....because that is a no brainer for me)

 

- Lets say the Bills are not sold on Cam or Gabbert if they are there at 3....maybe they think Ponder or Dalton or Mallett give them the same thing in the 2nd

 

- So now there is Peterson....but we dont really need a corner

 

- So now there is one of the wideouts.....but this is no really a need area either

 

- There is Von Miller....now THIS would be hard to pass up BUT you do in fact have LBs available a little later

 

 

Keep in mind that there is gonna be some really good talent STARTING good talent in the 2nd round of this draft....it has been rated as such.......and now for arguements sake lets say they really like Quinn who looks like an absolute beast AND many say that had he not missed last year HE would have gone in the top 5 of this draft.....

 

So say they now move down and take Quinn......you have a starter and are instantly better at LB BUT NOW you also have a additional pick of that good 2nd round talent.....

 

Now factor in that someone always for no inexplicable reason falls in the draft....someone that has no business dropping out of the top 15 but here he sits in the 2nd....and because you accumulated that additional pick you have the opportunity to take him

 

Personally? I think they are going to stand fast and draft Von Miller at 3.....his potential is just too insane and would start immediately

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This years crop of defensive players show exceptional talent and there appears to be true 1st rnd ability thru the top of rnd 2.

 

The draft value chart what most teams use to fairly exchange draft slots shows the #3 pick to be worth 2200 pts. Washington for example would needs to give up it's #10 1300pts, #41 2nd rd 490 pts and next years 1st rnd which is unknown and is valued as a mid round pick at 1/2 value or 500 pts.This is a few points over but it is a sellers market, the Bills could sweeten it for them by returning a 4th rd pick # 99 or 125.

 

The Bills could still draft a stud defender that in other years might go much higher than #10, pick up a bonus starter at #41 Kyle Rudolph for example and use the 1st Rnd pick in 2012 as they see fit .I could see this play out with the Vikings as a partner also if Newton or Gabbert are there at #3.

 

I get all that, I really do.

 

There are, however, 2 issues here:

 

1) That draft trade chart is no longer used by most teams, in fact, it's quite out-dated. It was drummed up in 1989, 22 years ago, before the top picks commanded salaries with guarantees in excess of $30M, $40M, or even $50M. This fact by itself really lessens the trade value of the top picks. There's no way Buffalo is going to get such a bounty for the #3 pick.

 

2) Just because there is a depth of first-round talent, that doesn't mean that there isn't still a drop-off between the top players and the next tier. So again, why pass on the better players?

 

OK.....lets just say for arguements sake (and by the way this is ALL ASSUMING that Darius is not there at 3....because that is a no brainer for me)

 

- Lets say the Bills are not sold on Cam or Gabbert if they are there at 3....maybe they think Ponder or Dalton or Mallett give them the same thing in the 2nd

 

- So now there is Peterson....but we dont really need a corner

 

- So now there is one of the wideouts.....but this is no really a need area either

 

- There is Von Miller....now THIS would be hard to pass up BUT you do in fact have LBs available a little later

 

 

Keep in mind that there is gonna be some really good talent STARTING good talent in the 2nd round of this draft....it has been rated as such.......and now for arguements sake lets say they really like Quinn who looks like an absolute beast AND many say that had he not missed last year HE would have gone in the top 5 of this draft.....

 

So say they now move down and take Quinn......you have a starter and are instantly better at LB BUT NOW you also have a additional pick of that good 2nd round talent.....

 

Now factor in that someone always for no inexplicable reason falls in the draft....someone that has no business dropping out of the top 15 but here he sits in the 2nd....and because you accumulated that additional pick you have the opportunity to take him

 

Personally? I think they are going to stand fast and draft Von Miller at 3.....his potential is just too insane and would start immediately

 

My only problem with that scenario is this: suppose Buffalo moves down to 5, with Quinn being the apparent target at that spot. Then Cincinnati at 4 decides they don't have a huge disparity between AJ Green and Julio Jones, so they move down to 6, and Cleveland moves up to 4 to get Quinn. Obviously, there's no way to predict all of this, but the point remains: why risk it? Too much factoring involved for me; take the guy you like at 3 and remove all doubt.

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I like Von Miller in the 1st round, 2nd round Cameron Heyward. Total upgrade of a pitiful defense. Screw a QB, none of them are that great.

I agree with your first statement. I'd be stoked to get Miller and Heyward. I don't agree with your last. We have NO IDEA if any of them are that great. That's one thing I am CERTAIN of.

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Show me proof that Nix didn't try and trade down? Or are you just throwing crap at the wall and hoping something sticks? Brian Bulaga? Isn't that the same guy that failed miserably as a guard for the Packers and only started because of injuries?

 

I can tell you that Nix openly stated he doesn't like to trade back, the Bills did select a RB that was supposed to make the O line block better, but then didn't play much at all last year, and was a wasted pick IMO.

 

I love how it's so easy to trade a top 3 pick these days. I guess the fact that there is no CBA makes things so much more easier. :wallbash:

Jeez.... Bryan Bulaga didn't start until game 5, but then he started in every game the rest of the season at RIGHT TACKLE! He beat out two vets that were not injured to get the start in game 5. He went on to be named to the NFL ALL-Rookie team and when the Packers won the SB he became the youngest player to ever win a super bowl. The Packers drafted him to eventually become their starting left tackle, but for now he is their starting RT. The Bills could have plugged this kid in from day one, and that RT position would have been solid all year, instead of having to bring in walk-ons off the street.

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When our 34 pick comes up if Ponder, Cam Heyward, Kyle Rudolph and Andy Dalton are still on the board who do you take?. It would be interesting to see if it falls like that

 

I want Newton or Gabbert if either one is there at 3, so of course I would want Ponder or Dalton at 34, based on your exact choices. :thumbsup:

 

Easley?

 

Isn't he a tall WR?? I didn't think he was anywhere near big enough weight-wise, to convert to a TE, unless you have heard that the coaches have been trying to bulk him up during his rehab from his season ending injury last year??

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Easley?

 

He was like 6-2-210 coming out...I've never heard a single word about him moving to TE and even though he's a decent sized WR he would be WAY short and small for TE...

 

I don't understand why his name is coming up as a possible TE? Because someone said he looked big at these workouts? Did he grow 3 inches?... ;)

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Say San Francisco (who has 12 picks in this draft) offers its RD3, two RD4's and one of its RD6's for the 2nd pick of the 2nd round. Do you do it?

 

Here's my simulation of that trade to stimulate discussion:

 

1 3 Buffalo Von Miller OLB34 Texas A&M

2 45 Buffalo Andy Dalton QB TCU

3 68 Buffalo D.J. Williams TE Arkansas

3 76 Buffalo Jerrell Powe DT34 Mississippi

4 100 Buffalo Casey Matthews ILB Oregon

4 108 Buffalo Lawrence Guy DE34 Arizona State

4 115 Buffalo Chimdi Chekwa CB Ohio State

4 122 Buffalo James Carpenter OT Alabama

5 133 Buffalo Shane Vereen RBF California

6 169 Buffalo R. Carmichael CB Virginia Tech

6 174 Buffalo Jo. Barksdale OT LSU

7 206 Buffalo Zach Pianalto TE North Carolina

7 245 Buffalo Jeff Maehl WRS Oregon P4R

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Say San Francisco (who has 12 picks in this draft) offers its RD3, two RD4's and one of its RD6's for the 2nd pick of the 2nd round. Do you do it?

 

Here's my simulation of that trade to stimulate discussion:

 

1 3 Buffalo Von Miller OLB34 Texas A&M

2 45 Buffalo Andy Dalton QB TCU

3 68 Buffalo D.J. Williams TE Arkansas

3 76 Buffalo Jerrell Powe DT34 Mississippi

4 100 Buffalo Casey Matthews ILB Oregon

4 108 Buffalo Lawrence Guy DE34 Arizona State

4 115 Buffalo Chimdi Chekwa CB Ohio State

4 122 Buffalo James Carpenter OT Alabama

5 133 Buffalo Shane Vereen RBF California

6 169 Buffalo R. Carmichael CB Virginia Tech

6 174 Buffalo Jo. Barksdale OT LSU

7 206 Buffalo Zach Pianalto TE North Carolina

7 245 Buffalo Jeff Maehl WRS Oregon P4R

As long as we can get Casey Matthews in the 4th anything you do is fine with me.

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