colin

a close game is of course possible, but my gut tells us we will know in the first quarter which way this will end up. i expect the winner to kind of dominate the loser. i have it 40% the pats just truck us and we get pushed around, 35% we show improve, body them up, and allen just makes super man plays to dominate the pats. of the 25% in the middle, i see us grinding out a win at 20%, and the pats sneaking one at 5%. so, i have us winning 55% of the time, but getting dominated 40% of the time. this will be the biggest statement game of the season.

for some reason i think we can always spank the fins, we just match up well and allen feels zero pressure against them. they do have a pretty nasty top to bottom d though, keeps them in a lot of games.

this is as close to a playoff game as a regular season game gets.

I think you are right. we have the horses, we are at home, big stage. if we fold like we did vs indy, it's a reflection on the culture and coaching. this is the kind of game that champions live for, and if we run and falter, well it means we are no champs. tbh, im not sure im a championship level fan! im just so nervous in these big games. sad!

a good finisher would make our pass D simply insane (it's pretty great already). more physically consistent play from our DTs and LBs (Star, zimmer, and edmunds being out against Indy made us worthless against the run) would really complete us into a super D (if that's possible in the modern NFL). i always bay hatch about our D having a schematic flaw whereby small shortcomings at specific positions on specific plays sort of folds the whole thing like a house of cards, but it's pretty clear they are overall a top unit (the money we spend on them they should be) and we are small upgrades at a couple of positions from being as dominant as we can be in today's game.

with tre out the d will have some challenges, but star and 49 being in means we have who we need to be fast and physical up front. on O we need to set the tone, and a healthy top 5 guys on the field OL is the key to that. brown brings so much juice it makes the whole line better. we need dabol to forget his own tendencies and mix it up and instead of the "hit the open man" O, we need to scheme ways to get bease and most of all diggs the ball. if Diggs goes off NE is toast. aaaaand of course we have to avoid the billsiest way to lose, which is our special teams getting kicks/punts blocked or just swimming in laundry all day. as a matter of fact, the O and D need to have a good fear of the color yellow.

obviously happy w a good road win vs a mash unit O, but a solid D. we need brown back so bad (tre too obv, but not sure his status yet). The biggest thing to me watching dawkins and ford closely is they look like fat body slobs, way more so than 1 and 2 years ago. ford looks like a bloated goon, dawkins looks saggier and less stout than last season. williams is bit tubby and doesn't move his feet to well, but he's a hoss when he gets into someone. Brown is some kind of man child super athlete. i don't know if it's the S&C, the injuries, the rehap, covid, or what, but our prior starting two OTs (remember ford was our RT for a while in his rookie season?) looking sloppy and playing it really bothers me. dawkins was never a pro bowler i don't think, but he used to play w some pep and get on guys.

I'm surprised that didn't work, good use of a time out tho

After the run back of what wasn't a fumble, that was simply an emotional let down drive. No Tre and up big after like 65 yards allowed in the first half, lotta stress hormones dumping

Ok, so I know this isn't how it works, but I feel like 91 plays better when 49 is behind him. Also, 49 erases a lot of our run d gap issues. Way more than I thought he did before

The fact that we haven't scored 38 is embarrassing. How are we not up 45? A playoff team would have 52 right now

Just a nasty disgusting play by diggs. Borderline showboating before he even cought the ball!!

Oliver might be that today so far.

D is just balling out so far. 3rd 4th down they've gone for it on. If Tre can't come back that's gonna hurt tho, so the I had better show improve and punch one on here to help put it out of reach

So ya, Josh is outright just playing bad lately. Did well vs jets, other than that game hes been junk for a month.

Some accurate comments about Josh in a smash mouth o, but this issue is we have too many just wasted or negative plays. Feels like dabol is just calling stuff off the sheet without an idea. We need a mix like any team.

3 man rush and our 8 figure LT can't do a damn thing. Trash OL

we need a return to basics like crazy, and daboll simply isn't competent. our corches are overconfident and arrogant. not having adjustments, just going back to the well over and over again when nothing is working, putting in moss over breida, it's all so tiresome. if mcd is worth his salt, he's slapping the double burger with cheese out of dabolls mouth and pressing his face into a sign that reads "KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID" right now.

the d got run out the building vs tenn and indy (as a prior post mentioned). if we didn't have a penalty on the kick off return for a td, we go up 4 vs tenn with little time left. if we converted in ther ed zone, we go up 4 w no time left. that was a close game at the least. vs indy, we got super trucked and mashed, but even a really good defensive performance woulda lost that game. against jax and pittz, d played well, special teams and offensive woes killed us. between the above, and the massive penalty problem, this team is simply not coached well or disciplined. any adversity gets us sulking. and to me the biggest and most obvious element of this is Daboll. he's a fat clown who has one great statistical season in a strange no audience covid year when allen broke out with diggs and beaz and davis balling out of control. he is reverting to the mean of his career with a quickness. his trash scheme, garbage protections, and complete lack of feel for who a game is going and how to organize an O is just glaringly obvious. im willing to let mccorch and the d corches work their way back to my good graces, but the offensive staff are rank beginners and have simply been bailed out by allen being super man much of the time.

bass nearly hit that 57 yarder at the end of the half, so ya not an issue w that one. going for it from 47 out was a mix of desperate and high risk low reward.

they really love that guy. we spent that money on two special teamers and butler and addison. can never have enough replacement level guys!!

there is a lot to this. they were playing w so so much juice in that game, allen had like 300 yards on 15 completions, the pass rush got home, all kinds of stuff. the thing that i just can't let go of is the penalties. someone showed in another thread how we had so many bad penalties in our losses (not so much indy, we just got destroyed there, but the ones we did get cost us or lead to opponent points). kc we had a lot too, but it was offset with the intensity and the juice we were playing with. imo we have stepped too far past team discipline, and simply play dirty and sloppy. our kick return game is hurting us bad too. our whole special teams except for our kicker (who missed 2 yesterday!). bad penalties and turnovers cost us yards, and cost us the pittz game, and really sealed in the loss vs indy.

right now, breida gets more burn, we run the ball more, the passing game must be organized to find knox, beas, and diggs in better match ups and get them the ball. we self scout and see what protection and what formations are working (i.e. not shotgun 4 wide do or die moron stuff) and simply show simple looks but run different plays out of them. on D, yards per pass had a comment from reich (and actual competent football coach) saying after a point he decided he was going to run it every 1st and second down, he did 17 or 18 at that point. our d and our coaches can't grasp that, that's the issue. we seem to like try to defend the whole field all the time, and try to keep this silly wide open O to just magically find the open man. we need to have more focused game plans, and have a plan b.

no adjustments, bad penalties, special teams blunders, and no ability to adapt (i.e. the things going wrong now are the same things that went wrong before, and last season). This is simply a coaching staff in over their heads. Mcd and Frasier have had success on D in the past, although they were both DBs and that's reflected in our finesse D. Dabol, our ST corch, and our O corches, do any of them have any track record? I think dabol and co (as well as our HC) sort of stumbled into josh allen and then got some talent around him and are using that to paper over their inability to lead and coach. i remember last year, we played NE who had like half their starters out for covid, and a ton of injuries. they had to play 6 dbs because they had only 1 linebacker who could physically play. we beat them on a miracle zimmer forced fumble on cam, ow we woulda lost that game. anyhow, their had huge personal issues, and we ran up and down on them, but they made a plan and prepared to put themselves in the best position to win, and they nearly did with a clearly inferior team. for the bills, a rookie OT being out w coof means we can't protect and won't even bother to run. a cover 2 or some shifty disguise means well we just have to totally suck on O, because our fat slob OC who's never had any success prior to getting josh allen and diggs doesn't seem to want to practice any under center plays consistently. On d, we were getting mauled on the ground (again) and we still bit like dogs on play action. never got out of nickle, but the pats were able to keep us out of the endzone playing dime all day. i honestly think of we simply practiced and schemed some more normal regular stuff that we could go to in a pinch, we'd have 2 or 3 less losses on the season (jax, pitt, maybe steelers, no chance we beat indy yesterday). this team has no confidence in what they are doing from play to play and they shouldn't.

mcd teams get murked and lay down every season OP, ever single one.