
colin
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1st Half Thread - Bills @ Chiefs 2022 Divisional Round Playoffs
colin replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Every run was a great okay by mahoms, and he was close to getting caught each time -
1st Half Thread - Bills @ Chiefs 2022 Divisional Round Playoffs
colin replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Nuts like church bells in that drive man. Big swagger -
48 27 bills.
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i was tipping this to an NYG fan buddy of mine just the other day. frankly, it would make the most sense.
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some good discussion here. couple things 1) how good has KC's d been? i see some great scoring stats, but their overall yardage stats are pretty bad. are they just that solid in the red zone? 2) the biggest difference for the bills right now vs 5 or 6 weeks ago is we have much better interior line play, and our play calling. motor is tearing it up like a savage, but that's cuz he's getting burn and the guys in front of him are doing good work (as well as his play). our pass protection is more solid, and josh has more time scan the field or bigger lanes to trot through and make Ds tear their hair out. instead of butt-ger and feliciano, we have what look like actual NFL starters at G in Bates and Williams. 3) since half time vs TB, our D (i swear mcd took it over, but maybe he's handed it back) has been more aggressive and in better position up front. the plays we have been burned on have been due to either mistakes in the secondary (the 1st td vs NE, although it didn't matter at that point) or because of just close plays not going our way (the long TD vs TB in OT, where the DB was there to nearly pick off the ball but just got there too late). a lot of that is on the DL balling out much harder, basham and Oliver have found another gear and that's where our biggest need was before. Healthy WRs, an actual run game, and production from our TE (which we were lacking in last year's AFCCG) will likely be the measurable difference in the game should we win it this yeaer, but IMO the line play improvements above will be the deeper reason.
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Does anyone think the Lamar Jackson situation this year was strange?
colin replied to FireChans's topic in The Stadium Wall
well, if he was being soft (doubtful) then you don't want him as your long term big dollar qb. if he was actually hurt, it raises the specter of him being an injury magnet in the future, which also casts doubt on him being the long term big dollar qb. all that aside, he was mvp and has been a touch down machine throughout his starting career, and baltimore doesn't have anyone lined up to replace him, has a team built around lamar, and has a pretty solid roster otherwise. so i think he gets big dollars this offseason, the only question is what protection can they build into the contract? i think they ink him up w a contract that gives them an out in years 2 or 3. i don't think he gets less than 40 per year tho. -
Analytics vs. Heuristics-Decision Making in the NFL
colin replied to D. L. Hot-Flamethrower's topic in The Stadium Wall
The huge problem with the analytics set in the NFL is the data. baseball and basket ball are great for it, because there are so many games and it is so repetitive so you get good data (where the data sets can be generally IID, interdependently and identically distributed). in football, the line ups, the combination of players (WRT the position they play rather than just independent talent levels) and the context of each play (how many yards needed for a first, did a corner just get dinged and you want to press the replacement, is your rb or wr winded from a big play just prior?) simply muddies the data way way too much. as gunner pointed out before, the actual results of so many specific data sets are hugely colored by exogenous variables (i.e. better offense/worse defense vs an opponent slants people to go for it on 4th more, improving the results of that data which will not carry over to other specific match ups). You also have data that is basically not quantified, how well the OL or DL plays, specific skills of individual players and how the impact a play (say a route runner vs a big fast guy at wr in a given down and distance). if all of this wasn't enough, you have football played at the nfl in 72 degree shopping mall domes, as well as in various end of days weather events we've had in buffalo, and psychotic cold and snow in GB and other places. one year a while back minni was re doing their stadium (or whatever) and had to play at the U of minni's field. they had a playoff game vs the seahawks, who had a pretty nasty team. that game was like 6-3 or 10-6 or some such, and was just a slug fest. going for it on 4th down in that game would have been way less likely to succeed compared to a playoff game in a dome. and last but also least, the actual rules and their selective enforcement have changed in the NFL much much more so than in the NBA and MLB. things that were standard 10 to 15 years ago are now harsh penalties today, so if you take data over a long enough time, you have some real apples to oranges problems. -
ya, when i see them bring one in and keep him in for a few consecutive plays, i figure its growing on them now.
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this was our pick after spencer brown, right? iirc, if we didn't draft brown everyone would be talking about what an absolute ahthletic freak this kid is. he was down from brown, who by many accounts is the most athletic OT ever measured, but he's like top 1% of athletic tackles ever tho. i think we got so bloody rocked by the pats w the extra lineman (in that we knew what they were doing, prolly knew the exact play half the time, but still got trucked often enough) that we stole the idea. it can set up some play action too, or even just a qb keeper. Good to have an extra look.
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Calling it now: Devin will be a 1000 yard back this year
colin replied to Alphadawg7's topic in The Stadium Wall
i was down on him earlier, but i can admit it wasn't his fault. bad oline play, not having our oline line up figured out, and bad play calling hurt him much more than his play hurt the team. im a bit uneasy about how our passing game has been cheeks for 3 weeks, but our run game, blocking, and D have been just killer for a month, so going in the playoffs looking tough. punt game? ya, let's just go for it every 4th down. -
imo this is as close to done as it can be at this point. its his return home, so power to him. i hope mcd takes more control of the d, i think he's just better than frazier.
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1/9/22 Gameday AFCE Champs vs Jets Postgame Thread.
colin replied to Chandler#81's topic in The Stadium Wall
Wobbly pops!!!! that's going in the repertoire -
Panthers Willing to Listen to Offers for McCaffrey
colin replied to aristocrat's topic in The Stadium Wall
assuming it fits contract wise and not too much in terms of trade cost, i'd totally want him on our team. an extra weapon like that with our new WR rental leaving this offseason would be a big get. 11 personnel with him, bease, diggs, davis, and knox is a nightmare for opponents. -
i remember a lot of people, perhaps me i don't recall, being on team wade when ralph canned him, but wade was an awful HC and a great DC. remember when he refused to ware a headset? he put one on in dallas tho! wade hiring jones and refusing to fire him is just a great example of what a clown he was. how do you have the worst special teams ever? like, it's not so hard to be kinda ok there. but i remember game after game of just awful awful special teams performance. if we had a drive stall out at the say 35 of our own side of the field, you were hoping they didn't start the next drive at the 50. it was disgusting.
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ive been a nervous fan all year, limits my enjoyment somewhat, but i am what i am. i'd say the best was KC. the best game in terms of action, although the ending was a horrible heart breaker was the Tenn game. it was back and forth with big plays, we so the best of both offenses, no shortage of excitement. the ending sequence, where we score the go ahead TD on a kick return, to have it called back, and then waltz down the pitch only to get a near goal line sneak stuffed was a sports writer's wet dream. i really want to go back into Tenn and destroy them in the afcc game. i really don't like the titans.
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this is very interesting. there are also all kinds of micro trends our team gets into and out of. remember when we never ever stopped 2 point conversions, and were like the worst 3rd quarter team in the entire nfl? i think our O, and in many cases our whole team, are pretty streaky and emotional. this is reflected in how much we blow out teams in our wins, vs how bad we fall apart in games where the wheels just kinda start to fall off (tampa, altho the 2nd half was great, pittz once we stumbled in the RZ, Jax once we got dinged we the penalties, NE 1 once we got trucked a bit and couldn't run, etc). i almost think we need to face indy or some other horrible match up early to build back a lot of confidence and get some mo going. that said, i'd much rather face the raiders as a nervous fan.
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It somewhat baffles me that with all the anti trust laws on the books, and there were anti trust actions in the past, they are basically DOA now, for both parties (isn't this what the left, or now the seemingly more populist GOP are supposed to stop?). The joy of the internet for many, at least at first, was that you didn't need to abide by what the powers that be want to distribute for your eyes and ears, you can find music not on the radio, you can get sports coverage not from the local or national paper (this message board is a still functioning example of how the internet can fulfill that function). Unfortunately, we seem to be headed back to where we started from, with fewer channels delivering content, more bundling, less actual choice. Totally sucks. I was planning on cancelling my athletic subscription. I sort of wanted to continue supporting them cuz i thought they were doing something interesting, but a couple decent bills articles a week is all i get from them. their boxing and mma coverage stinks, and their kick boxing/thai boxing coverage is basically zero. oh well, perhaps we will get another one of these in the future.
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Bills over cowboys would be the sweetest super bowl, followed by bills over GB, then bills over TB, then bills over zona.
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I can't stand the guy because he's a Titan (hate that team), but Henry really is one of the true workout warriors of the NFL. all these players train hard, but guys like him take it to the next level and constantly hire people and seek out new and better ways to train. He's probably very conscious of all of his measurable numbers, as well as mobility, reaction time, and odd little things like neck hand and foot fitness. Brady is one of those guys too, and it's paid off for him. The LB/DE Pitts had back in the day, Harrison, was big on it too. went from getting gut to NFL DMVP. of course, there are questions about PEDs and such, but assuming they know how to skirt protocols, that only makes them better players.
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This is a really good point, but if we are gonna get to the chip this year, we most likely have to win in kc and tenn, which we almost did this year in the regular season. facing indy, then tenn, then kc, then GB in the chip would be the most insane gauntlet. This is a really good point, but if we are gonna get to the chip this year, we most likely have to win in kc and tenn, which we almost did this year in the regular season. facing indy, then tenn, then kc, then GB in the chip would be the most insane gauntlet.
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This is a really good point, but if we are gonna get to the chip this year, we most likely have to win in kc and tenn, which we almost did this year in the regular season. facing indy, then tenn, then kc, then GB in the chip would be the most insane gauntlet.
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I think Lamar gets a monster contract, perhaps just back of allen, but the cap expectations might inflate that. I think baker gets a contract that gives the browns an out after a couple years. i'm not sure what the qb availability i the market looks like, but the browns have a lot of really high draft picks, and their rb, who will come under new contracts soon. a lot of that skill talent is gonna leave, but the ol and run game will be intact. a smart franchise would give a team friendly deal (basically the outs are what they need) and see if baker bites.