colin

this seems like mostly a waste of time, but prolly a good thing for players to get some stuff off of their chests. nfl players get every aspect of their professional lives scrutinized, and so do coaches and GMs, so it makes sense that the owners get finger pointing too.

we suck at wr, and i'd love to have gotten waddle or something, but I just don't accept that the o has to blow because of a lack of wr talent. we have oodles of talent on the offense at every other position. the coaches have to figure out smart and creative ways to be unpredictable and to use the talent we do have. it's simply not the case that great talent everywhere and none at wr means the o has to get shut down simple and easy all the time, we need our coaches to do better.

O was not good, special teams were actually good for once (basically enough to offset our o, which is rare, usually the impact of o and d are way bigger than special teams), d was putrid. The d marks were on the back of giving up multiple long td runs late. The advanced stats don't predict the winners perfectly of course, but they give valuable info beyond fantasy stats and gut reactions to games. Basically the bills are a top team who are wildly I consistent on a game to game, drive to drive, and sometimes play to play basis. Our EPA = billsy. For this sunday's game, TB is effecient passing the ball, which our d is very strong against, and their d isn't good enough to keep our o from controlling the ball and scoring regularly.

These next 3 games, and really the next 2, will tell us everything about this team. I feel worse about them than I have in quite a while, but I'm reminded about the advanced stats and handicappers, which tell is we should cruise to wins, and how we have this swoon, then one very billsy or even gawd awful performance, and the end the season ripping off a series of wins. My gut tells me winning the division is a mug's bet, but advanced analysis says it's a very likely outcome

the one panther we didn't sign!!

honestly, this is scheme fit and being fragile vs being a guy. when you watch nfl shows featuring players ( i like to hear shady mcoy and akib talib talk. they have an urban street take on everything, but they worked really hard as nfl players, won championships, and are unfailingly honest) they talk about the guys, the dudes, the dogs. tremain isn't a stud football player, but he's a total stud athlete playing football. he was over paid by chicago, and is now earning all of his contract. if you see who we extended, its taron johnson, milano, bernard (horrible horrible contract, he's just a scheme fit barely above replacement nfl guy), knox. all four guys are paid, all four guys are not impact players at their position and are constantly hurt. Taron was good before, but he's a tiny cb playing SLB on like 30% of our snaps, he just can't last. at the next level, you have ed oliver and dq jones. when healthy both of those guys are more than worth their contracts, but they are never healthy. our latest other re signs were groot (people poop on him, but i'll take him at his contract all day every day, he's a trooper and a plus player), shakir (honestly over paid, he's a scheme fit guy and does things lots of other nfl guys can do, not a huge contract at least) and benford (was a stud for a couple years, but this is the third year in a row he's missed games where we needed him and lost with him out, and the prior two were in the fricking chip games). even tho i love him, you might throw hoyt in there too cuz he got so badly hurt. that's just too much money wrapped up in scheme fit not uber talented guys who most of all are always hurt. the upside is of course, we can let jones, johnson, milano, not bernard (too new contract) or shakir or benford (i think he can come back and be a stud again, i hope at least) go without any real impact. knox, bass, samuel can all go too and frankly we won't really notice them too much. i think we push dead cap forward as the cap grows since we still have some core guys, maybe keep bosa, keep aj if he's cheap again, and fill in holes in the draft and trade like we shoulda for a guy like waddle. some injury luck and like 3 position upgrades and we are a monster.

i wish i had a reaction to put on this post of a pondering the info. I think you are more correct than any kind of wrong, but i have been thinking one thing (dangerous, i know) and hearing another lately that i'll chime in w 1) some podcasts i follow and just rando twitterati have been going on about how McD and beane might not be the best of pals. mcd is obviously super stubborn to the edge of arrogance and does not like being pointed at as the problem (he canned two OCs, had a battle w dabol, at the very least helped our prior DC walk out the door, and snap reversed keeping the ST coordinator). Beane has an ego that makes mcD look like a monk. lots of comments like beane saying we had/have a chip roster, that saying we aren't good enough at wr is stupid, mcd saying that he tells beane what he'd like, and then it's "his stage" to do the trades. i used to think mcd called the shots, but i think more and more beane has become a power unto himself, but not over mcd. for this reason, i could see beane getting the bum's rush and mcd staying, which would be kinda insane and would mean whoever came in as GM was just a scouting/contract/football operations guy and not a true GM (which beane is not either if he can't fire mcd). 2) i honestly think mcD is a very good DC, and at the very least a solid HC. i think the above mentioned stubborn/arrogance thing means he just won't bring in a high quality pair of coordinators. no one who has been in and out of our building (save kromer, but i think he left before mcd, no?) has been anything but basically ass without josh allen (aside from McD as a successful DC). i'd love him as our DC with an offensive mind at HC. McD would fight for his side, get his guys going, and we know he can call a d. if the HC in clevland gets the boot next season, i would jump head over heels for him as OC, especially of brady walks off into the LSU/Penn St sunset. I think our FO is in a holding pattern because of good regular season success and the magic of josh allen in the same way our talent levels were in a holding pattern in the boring drought 7-9 days. never bad enough to tank for real talent, never good enough to be worth watching, and the same way ralph was cheap (altho he broke that trend to get mario williams) pags is a disaster sports owner w the sabres so he is kinda hamstrung in the confidence to clean out guys department.

check out pro football reference dude, our special teams is a disaster. punting was strong last game, but frankly when our O is humming our punt game is very unimportant. i wonder what the EPA impact of our penalties are as well, I think it might be the worst in the NFL, or close too. the impact of the plays we get a penalty on vs what happens the next play are game breakers.

ya, i just made a post in another thread about how we are favored by 5.5 vs the bucs and that's actually fair, we are just a wildly inconsistent team. im sort of reading into the narrative of how the d lets us down every season in the playoffs and we are in our post season form when it comes to injuries already. sanders shaq aj benford and (hope hope) ed back for the playoffs is a much much better d than what we have out there.

the odds makers have us as 5.5 favs, and they are generally much much more right than wrong. if you look at our EPA per game in each phase, our special teams always suck a little bit (to medium) our D and our O have massive variance. like 10+ swings on each side of the ball from week to week. as bad as the o was vs the fish (worst since atlanta) the d was much worse in terms of epa. now, a lot of that is late in the game it was over and they were selling out to stop a run dead and it got past them and scored (twice). the reality is even with all of our injuries, we are a better team that tampa, which is baffling for me to type because we look so ass and they have looked better so much of the time, but that's what it is. i really think it comes down to coaching and injury luck for us this season. if we can get a couple guys back and playing a bit, and brady can figure it out some, we should be able to still challenge for the division. i honestly don't feel that way and mentally kinda gave up on the division, but the numbers are the numbers.

well, i'm generally a homer and try to look on the bright side (until the game thread, then i doom and gloom) but this level of talent missing from the DL which is completely and totally the center piece of our D might just be too much for us to overcome. the offense is blowing goats at the moment, but we fail every playoffs because of defensive breakdowns generally helped along with injuries. i read oliver might be back for the playoffs, or late playoffs, but it's not certain he'll be effective even if he is back. assuming taron and benford can come back to full health, we at least have a workable secondary w harriston, bishop, poy/hancock, benford and Taron, but our LB play has been bad without shaq, and it all comes down to our DL, which is now a total mash unit.

Coleman sucks and looks like he's dogging it, but we saw this from diggs, wrs want the ball and they want to be important. The whole o right now is set up for wrs not to be important. I'm sure keon thinks that sucks, and that he doesn't get good opportunities. He had a couple bad attempts vs Miami, but also was thrown a couple bad balls as well, so in his mind it's a wash. I think it's clear the players don't have a lot of confidence in what the coaches are doing, at least on offense.

To my eye we did because we were stubborn (arrogant). We played vs big personnel on d with our tiny nickel, and when we saw stacked boxes early vs the fish when we had the ball we were predictable and ran the same cut backs we always do, which they stayed at home and beat. Week to week this coaching staff just doesn't have ideas, and what's more when it fails early, there is no answer. The team gets up for games the coaches are up for and prep for, and fails in games where the coaches just don't bother to have answers. All three losses look the same -- the offense gets figured out by the opposing d, makes no adjustments, and we have to drop back and force balls to low talent wrs. Early down throws and play action was there to be had vs Miami, we just don't like to be unpredictable

Honestly, we have an oc with no success prior to having Allen, and we have a dc with just no success. They don't have the experience or knowledge to adjust on the fly. They can script stuff up w the talent we have for opening drives and stuff, but when the game is dynamic if it doesn't go their way they can't bring it back. I think MCD has this team built in his image and this is what it is. There is no mad man Kevin gilrbide of who will fight for what he says is how the o needs to be, there is no wink Martindale dc who will get into a fist fight to support their cause, we have kromer who is a stud, and then people who can script up what MCD wants well, and then they kinda hope it keeps working the rest of the game

I call it the rock paper scissors element of football. We were scissors going deep all the time, so teams played rock w two high shells, now we went paper last year (and we really went paper with ten slots and no x wrs) and now teams are going scissors on us (press, crowd box, blitz) and we don't have an answer. Part of it is the talent we have (no Palmer or better to break the crowd) and even more of it is philosophy and preparation. Vs KC and even Baltimore we went in the bag and pulled out different plays and looks on o and d. We had change ups but on o vs KC we were mainly establishing the run and playing match up games off of that. Vs Baltimore once they cracked us open on d we went way more aggressive on o and hit some deep stuff outside, it stressed them and lead to a win. Even in d vs bmore we changed it up late and got stops and a turnover. Both teams on the field yesterday had a bunch of injuries to their better players. The difference is one team just fired the gm, had a bit of extra rest, and the coach was coaching for his life vs a team that always pants him. The other team spent their energy vs their Boogeyman team in an emotional win, and figured this was a game to feature different players, didn't have an answer to Miami's run d, and just sort of played random Madden offensive formations to try out their new material. We are mentally the opposite of Baltimore. They out size speed and talent other teams and front run with the best of them. They fade when the other team can take the shots and their QB falters when the light gets brighter, but piles up stats when he's given room to run. We play more smoke and mirrors and crumble with just weak plays and bad execution. We tend to play better vs better opponents and Allen gets inspired when things are scarier on the bigger stage. I think it's a bit of humble arrogance. Bean showed it when he attacked a radio guy over his total failure at the wr position. Our coaches show it by simply not bothering with a plan b, or the ability to make adjustments on the fly. Yesterday was the first opening drive we punted on this season, we had 6 TDS and a turnover going into this game, and stick azz Miami got us to punt. We went down the field in the second half opening drive in a sclerotic force of will by Allen who pressed the issue too much and threw a horrible int to end it. We can show out on scripted stuff, but we fade when the other team has an answer and we just don't seem to be able to change it up, it's like we show up with a limited play book every week. I've seen this movie way too many times. MCD and his teams have an absolute get trucked stinker one or two times every year. It's always us in desperation forcing the issue on o, and the d letting the other team truck us with explosive run after explosive run. Same script every time. We lack some talent but this team wins or loses with the coaching. It's just that simple.

Lol, I have lots and lots of spell check Easter eggs but those two were actually on purpose. Tub is a touchdown, I think I first heard it from Shannon Sharpe, checks is butt is ass.

8, 58, 7, and rapp have all been absolute trash this season. benford, daquan, and oliver too, if we factor in injuries. six of those 7 are our highest paid guys on D. the linebacker unit, now that bishop seems to have arrived, is our worst unit on D, and that includes when we have our 4th and 5th cb in. 3 lbs (sadly one was hurt today) have played way way better than 8. he's awful this season.

the flaws in our game plans are pretty obvious. we come in with our plan, and we stick to our plan, maybe with the odd wrinkle. on D today i give a mulligan because the o was so putrid and we had so many players hurt. the announcers were talking about how brady was saying he wanted to get keon more involved. every single drive where we "feature" keon early is a punt or a turnover. he caught the one nice tub, but whenever it was a clearly drawn up play for him it was cheeks. we also had screens to the wr very short, and a couple trash screens to the rbs. oh, and a jet sweep! like, they don't want to put the best players on the field and push that, not today, they wanted to assert themselves as this drop back passing team with what looked like extremely telegraphed runs, and it showed. it's simply arrogance. any time we actually play with some balance and unpredictability we get great results. our coaches were all the way in their bags vs kc, and this one was half azzed and kinda mailed in. i think what we are seeing, especially on offense, are players and a qb who just don't believe in what they are doing.

No, get the win w another td and fg

Nice TD drive, but shouldn't have gone for 2, we never get 2

Honestly, looking at this team there was no need to extend shakir like we did. Shoulda kept hollins and gone huge for some real outside talent. No one is even average

This team shot its wad vs KC, and the d is all hurt. If cook doesn't get rolling somewhat the offense is worthless. Poorly constructed and Coached given the talent we have at QB, ol, te, RB.

Coleman has the most appropriate number

Allen had a great one vs KC, and was good vs Carolina, but aside from that he's sucked for like 5-6 weeks based on his prior standard

The saddest thing is it is so obvious, the big people play action tightends passing is our best look, but Brady has to go into all kinds of cute ish. Shakir, Bernard, and sadly so far this season benford have been busy off signings. I hope these morons adjust