colin

i said this about the last too weeks, but im a bills fan to a fault so i'll just pretend i didn't and say it now: our playoffs are now and how we do over the next two will set us up. we obv have to handle biz against the panthers, a good d to get some mojo going against. vs the pats, the team needs to play with great confidence and physicality. stepping up large in that game will tell the world and most of all tell the locker room that we really are just a few plays from being the top team in the nfl. except for indy, it was a fine line between losing or winning all of our losses, i think we are on a finer line right now, and crossing it with flying colors is the set up we need.

aside from perhaps just not being good enough, i think dabol suffers from being too clever by half. i wonder if mcd is too nice at times, letting his coordinators have all the rope they need to hang themselves.

i suspected it before, but alphadawg convinced me, mcd went riot act last week at half time and woke dabol up, and basically took over the D (he's taken over the d before). the data shows us frazier is a solid DC, but McD is simply a better one, so when he steps in on the D, it gets better results. i think he may have to take a page out of billicheat's book and always have a hand as being a shadow DC or whatever you want to call it, not saying he is as good, but mcd simply has a feel and understanding of D that most don't. the bigger issue coaching wise is on O, obviously. I think Dabol struck gold w allen and digs and co, and that alone is the polish on his turd CV as an OC. in 2019 allen had like 3rd in the nfl total TDs, and our O was basically putrid statistically (remember the no 300 yard game threads?!?!?), and that was with dialing up some horrible stinkers early (remember that NE game, which we still had a shot of winning!!). if you look at dabol throughout his career as an NFL OC, he's been nearly the worst every time, with the exception of 2020 and 2021. given we have a WR who came in having been a top guy, and our QB was good enough to get the biggest guarantee in NFL history, i think our shortcomings are clearly more on coaching than players. our OL stucks, but they have gotten worse while adding more talent, and the inconsistency is a pretty strong indicator of coaching issues (it's not just play calling, it's also preparation week to week and through out the season). in short, keep mcD (that might change if we really capsize and miss playoffs), shoot the O coaches out of a cannon, and consider changes on D.

it's not true that i think that? what do i think? look, it may be mathematically true that we don't need to win out to win a superbowl, but in terms of swag, mo, and confidence, i think we finally showed some as a total team at the end of last night, and we are in a fragile place and need to keep that standard to win.

i think our playoffs started in the second half of last night. we gotta win em all to be champions.

agree. i think posters talking about not having the horses on OL, TE, and RB (and even big WR) are 100% correct, but we have to go to war with the army we have, not the army we want. i think allen can help the team in some small and subtle ways, mainly being less predictable on RPOs, but far far too many plays we call are obvious and doomed from before the snap.

im down on him, but i think he light a fire in the second half yesterday, ill give him the rest of the season. daboll needs to go, along w just about all of our Offensive corches. on D im kinda more 50/50, i think it's mcD's D, and frazier is just managing it, but i could be wrong. if we miss the playoffs, i don't think the pegula's would do it, but that's a fair time to fire them all. not saying it's the smart move, but it wouldn't be totally unjustified.

i love the pma! tbh, the only reason why i'm not entirely shutting down football for the season is that i think mccoach put the boots to his assistants and is now our DC and "pass run allocation" coordinator

nice take alpha. i responded to a post of yours in another thread w some of the same ideas, so of course i agree. i don't know that im as optimistic as you, but you make a strong point. and to his credit, i think mccoach put his foot up in everyone at half time, and the results were much better. go bills!

i've been down on mcclaps this season, and he deserves it (lol, i bet it tears him up that colin on TBD has had harsh words for him!). what i think happened yesterday: he let dabol do his thing, and he let the d and frazier do their thing in the first half (unsure how much he is normally involved in the D, im sure it's not zero tho). at half time, he pepped the team up, and in his own way read the riot act to daboll, and made some small adjustments on D. the d played great after half time until the breakdown on the OT pass, and with a few stumbles the O was the josh allen show w guest appearances from his pals from time to time. if we win out and take the division, which i'd love to see but in no way expect, i could see dabol keeping his job but as above i agree w you that the OL coaches are toast no matter what. if we stumble but make the playoffs, i'd put it at like 70% that dabol gets the hook. if we miss the playoffs, particularly if it ends up in a run for the bus finish, at least dabol, if not more, coaches walk, and mcclap's seat gets super hot. i don't think josh being hurt will give them any slack either, it's do or die time. i've been down on mcclaps this season, and he deserves it (lol, i bet it tears him up that colin on TBD has had harsh words for him!). what i think happened yesterday: he let dabol do his thing, and he let the d and frazier do their thing in the first half (unsure how much he is normally involved in the D, im sure it's not zero tho). at half time, he pepped the team up, and in his own way read the riot act to daboll, and made some small adjustments on D. the d played great after half time until the breakdown on the OT pass, and with a few stumbles the O was the josh allen show w guest appearances from his pals from time to time. if we win out and take the division, which i'd love to see but in no way expect, i could see dabol keeping his job but as above i agree w you that the OL coaches are toast no matter what. if we stumble but make the playoffs, i'd put it at like 70% that dabol gets the hook. if we miss the playoffs, particularly if it ends up in a run for the bus finish, at least dabol, if not more, coaches walk, and mcclap's seat gets super hot. i don't think josh being hurt will give them any slack either, it's do or die time.

assuming i'd get forthright answers, i'd ask "how well does your staff scout yourself?" i'd ask that because we are just horribly predictable at the worst times. in the past two games, both against great teams with great coaches, we made 4th down mistakes that we gave the key away too. last week, our final drive we march up the field w sanders on for every play, and the last play we sub in davis. D keys on this, defender on bease peels off, looking the whole way to play zone out of man to help, and the pass fails. this week, we go for a fake punt. the thing is, breida, our fastest player on O!!, gets subbed into the punt team. tb had seen us punt all day, and had seen our tape of punting. they know that's not what breida normally does, so they key on him. then we get a zero disguise run into a wall, and lose posession. this has been a common theme. remember when the pats blocked our punt, which ended up being the difference in the game in 2019? they noticed if they overloaded the punt rush team on one side, we simply didn't adjust. they saw that on film, tested it lining up that way, and then pulled the trigger. i honestly think our coaches like over study and over prepare and stress out about everything, but simply are not capable of identifying what the low hanging fruit is to make the team better. we are too clever by half, trying to press for a slightly better lane for our gunners, or thinking we will have a monster return game on special teams, or on O dabol still thinks "if i call a play that surely won't work, the d will never expect it!"

look man, im not proud to say it, but if reich demands that beane wear high heels and full clown make up and act as his personal rickshaw driver year round, then i see those as reasonable demands and we must comply.

im a huge fan of frank reich, but after beating the pats i hope the colts go into a total tailspin, he gets fired, and we sign him as our OC.

how our plays are called and who we have on the field just don't line up. signing sanders and guys like obedah (SP), drafting basham and the OT back up we got in the 4th, and keeping all of houghs, addison, whoever so they can sit on the bench 85% of plays did nothing to make our team better. if we got a real OG, a big WR or a quality TE, not to mention some kind of NFL RB (i'd keep motor but moss and brieda are just not good) a lot of these trips would have been more fruitful. as it stands, since we got what we got, it's pretty clear daboll just doesn't have the touch or understanding he needs, and our OL coaching needs to be removed. maybe im putting too much of the blame on the coaches on O, but i think the evidence is pretty clear they suck much more than they are good, and sometimes you just need a clean break.

you make a good point, but i have babbled endlessly about how our D (at great great expense cap wise and with a huge amount of coaching advantage vs our O) structurally combined w our actual players, just has a problem. we are built to take away the big play, but allow big plays while not forcing the O out of their comfort zone. based on what we have, i don't think edmunds gives us enough since he doesn't make enough impact plays, but does make mistakes. for example, if he were exactly who he is, but could really get off or punish blockers, he mighta disrupted the blocker levering the whole play inside and at a worse angle, making the tackle more likely.

i think we still have a schematic/structural issue on our D (O as well, but it's way worse on O and the talent sucks at too many positions). we seem to always defend everything pretty well, instead of dictating what we want to take away. now, i can understand why that can lead to a great D, it did in carolina for mcclaps. they problem is a single mistake by one or two players leads to a big play, and the way we are built we get ground up w short passes or runs. if you look at our 3 losses to the really good teams this year, it's all the same 1 Tenn: a plain old run play lead to a couple guys being a beat late or out of position, break away TD. 2 NE: while we got trucked on lots of run plays for like 10-20 yards, we made lots of negative plays too, but the one 3rd and 5 lead to NE's only offensive TD, lost us the game 3 TB: while we stank early on, and did great to come back, that one break away TD run (first score of the game) was the same old crap. DL gets blocked or out of position, guards get up on the LBs, one or two guys get there late or fill in wrong, and bang, break away Run TD. as a bonus, we also allowed a break away 3rd and 2 passing TD. it was a short pass, but the structure is the same as a run, guy gets the ball near the line of scrimmage, edmunds and others make just enough mistakes to not make the tackle, and we let up a giant TD. our style of d, and our specific d, works great when the secondary is erasing windows, the DL is disrupting, and the LBs run free and make plays. our problem is we aren't getting the turnovers we need to get the d off the field, because we are weak to dink and dunk. the main structural advantage of the d is stopping the big play, and statistically we are about the best at that, but the opponents know they don't have to take crazy risks, just get the guards up the pitch or hit the right short pass and they will get that long TD they need. given our HC was a DC, our DC was a HC, and we spend more money on the D than anyone else (particularly D line) AND have dumped like all our fricken picks onto the DL in the past 3 years, we can conclude there is a big problem top down on D for us. milano makes mistakes, but he makes them going 1000mph towards something that he thinks is an opportunity. he also makes big impact plays and erases routes at least some of the time. edmunds erases routes by being big long tall and fast, but he gets moved by the qb or the Pass catcher just way too easily (the one first down by gronk, edmunds was in his hip pocket, and it was an easy set up for gronk to go inside, brady saw it the whole way too) and he is out of position while like floating or thinking, and most of all above everything, he just can't get off of blocks. he does make great plays to the edge in space, frankly that's what has him drafted high and getting paid next season. for our D tho, the mistakes cost us way more than the bonus plays contribute, because they aren't ints and sacks, but are just really good open field tackles. great to have those, but if the opponents know they can run their basic bread and butter and beat you via attrition, you are letting them play at a lower level of difficulty, and that alone is the difference between us winning and losing those 3 games against really good competition. we need an upgrade in our front 7, shocking giving what we pay, but ditching a couple old trash DL and signing like one real pass rusher and signing or drafting a real plug in the gut can get us there IMO. edmunds should not be long term signed, but he should be released only if the cap makes sense and we have an upgrade ready.

no, i don't think you can give him that much credit. part of his calling plays is to call what is best vs the d, and what his players on the field are likely to be able to execute. also, away from dialing up plays, there needs to be a smart system in place in practice where you are putting money in the bank all year to get really good at some bread and butter stuff, and during the week you have to practice the plays you are gonna feature. he's simply not shown that at all. every football fan w a good head for the game i know comment that the bills just sort of line up in shotgun, and wr's run around and allen avoids the rush and finds them. the constant jail breaks are a huge issue, but we don't seem to be able to call draws and screens and quick passes out of jumbo or max protect. we see our players make mistakes the odd time we attempt these, but to me that's on coaching. two seasons w the nearly exact same cast on a pro team means you need to have some man, blitz, and zone beaters that you can go to. dabol is just playing madden out there. his 2020 season was an aberation because diggs and allen and bease are monsters and covered up for his poor ability. proof of this is how fast we've fallen apart, and literally every single offensive performance he coached prior to 2020.

you're not wrong, but imo he like randomly walked into some stuff that was working when josh got hot in the 2nd half. in the first half, and a couple other drives, nothing he called set anything up, nor was set up by any prior calls.

the play that sticks out the most to me: in the first half, where we ran either zero or 1 rb runs so far, we pull some goofy play action from under center (normally, i think this is about our best formation, but with either side of zero attempts to run, it isn't set up), the line parts in the middle (by design) and the MLB who was really close to the line just runs free. breida comes in late and to high to block him, and josh gets creamed. i am CERTAIN daboll has read the analysis which shows that it doesn't really matter how well you are running for play action to work, i.e. over all play action plays around the league if teams rush for good YPC or not good YPC, you get a gain from play action. what is missed here is in a game where you are down bad, and are simply not running the ball, the LBs will be much more likely to just blitz immediately rather than be playing back but not deep enough. so we get a big hit on josh, a loss of yards and a down, and risk a turnover to gain what? a shot at an 8 yard pick up? even in our best games on O (and this was clearly one of our better ones this season) we kinda just throw stuff against the wall and look to see what sticks. no wonder we get so many half azzed routes and goofy blocks, do any of our players have confidence in what the coaches are setting the team up to do on O?

This really was some home cooking. Game on the line and they let diggs get horribly mugged, marginal (frankly opi) in ot w Evans and it's flagged up quick. We have hole like swiss cheese, but the way games get called is just too obvious to always be mess ups by the refs

I've given him a lot of rope, and now he's hung himself with it completely. He's just north of replacement level, like so much of our roster besides allen

This staff and team don't deserve Allen. He's our only frickin player

So, our ol can't block a stunt to save their lives, can't run block, and we let Spain and teller walk. How are these coaches still employed?

I know TB is a great team, but it feels like we are behind the sticks on every drove, o or d. We need Allen heroics to get a fg. TB just runs dink and dunk and walks up and down the field.

you know, this makes me think: what's dabol's blocking philosophy? we ran spain and teller out of there, who have done better than anything we have going on right now. does what he wants to do in the passing game (wr's all over the joint, josh playing super man) fit w the blocking scheme on O? i think daboll is just not in anyway a complete OC. he doesn't have cohesive ideas on what to do, even within his own play design and practice schedule. greg roman runs really simple passing schemes, but his running and blocking always puts the O in advantage situations. reid is a mad genius, but his teams always know what they want to do blocking wise. I remember kevin gilbride getting some heat for very simple blocking schemes, and he frustrated just about every team he was on (save the 2 chip winning giant team), but they got good results running and passing. i really think our O has gotten stats from some great wr and qb play, which has covered up for just a poorly designed and coached scheme. dabol's history prior to 2020, and the past 6 games bear that out, and is far and away the bulk of his career.