dave mcbride

My point is not catastrophism, which is you're imputing (i.e., the snarky "doomed"), but rather an unexpected handicap at the margins in the draft this year. I'd rather not have to deal with the handicap, but that's just me. They're drafting late without a full set of picks along with zero comp picks and they need some successes because they're going to be hard-pressed to take advantage of the FA market the next couple of years. Having an expected fifth get pushed back to the sixth is the sort of thing that reduces the draft capital they'll need to get a mid-round player (e.g., a move up to the fourth/late third or something like that) they really like. The sky isn't falling. But I wish the Bills had a better slate of picks than they do given that we're now in the massive-Allen-contract era.

It may have been something like wins an "NFL player of the week award," which he did (ST player of the week for the NE game). Not that I have any idea of what precisely triggered it, of course.

Not my point at all, but whatevs.

Agreed. In the abstract, yes, but if you're a built-to-win now team, It's less important when you have a ton of cap space and can spend money on high end FAs. The Bills can't do that.

Hines’ playing time/production exacted a fifth round pick rather than a sixth from the Bills. The Bills have six picks in total now - one each in rounds one through six. Definitely not great for an important draft year. The picks are all late-round ones except for the fifth rounder, which is from AZ. I have to think they’ll try desperately to trade out of the late first for more picks unless a player they love at either WR or OL falls to them. .

And the outlet he writes for is effectively The New York Times' sports section now.

Agreed about Campbell. Would you rather have Edmunds at the high price he's listed at or the much cheaper Lavonte David for a the two-year deal he's listed at?

Beane actually said as much in the end-of-season press conference.

I wouldn't consider a fourth-round pick much of an "investment." That's what they got him for. They also traded a second for Corey Dillon, who arguably should be in the HOF given his numbers. He put up nearly 1,700 rushing yards in his first season there and they won the SB.

Bill Walsh drafted Montana, Rice, Lott, Craig, Haley, etc. etc. And he traded picks for Steve Young.

He defenses a LOT of passes. That's the same as tackling a RB at the LOS with the added benefit of making QBs being leery about throwing 20 yards downfield to the middle of the field if he's lurking in that region. He had 4 pass breakups vs. Miami. The only type of rookie with a higher upside than Edmunds is going to be a first or second round pick, and if the Bills are taking an off-ball LB with a first or second round pick, they're drafting very stupidly. I'd re-sign him given that I believe that he's a core component of this defense. People might not like the scheme, but you go to war with the army you have and he's a good soldier for this scheme. He is not perfect, of course, but they have bigger holes to fill.

Losing SBs is way more impressive than not reaching them. 7-3 in 10 games is way more impressive than both 7-0 and especially 4-0.

Comparing him to Seifert is ridiculous. Seifert took over one of the most talented teams of all time and Pederson took over a post-Chip Kelly team in disarray and a bottom-of-the-barrel Jax team. And he got fired because of Carson Wentz, who he stopped believing in. And he was correct. And Wentz has proven to be the ultimate coach killer.

And looks physically sharp out there. He's still fluid in his mobility and throws a great ball. I always thought he threw a great ball; he just was in bad situations and compounded that with too many terrible reads of the field. If you're a coach, he was a guy who was easy to lose faith in. He's gotten better on the mental side for sure, but the physical talent he showed this year was always there.

Re: the bolded, yes but: Houston's offense was pretty good (14th in yards, 13th in points, 7th in yards per drive, 8th in points per drive) and a defense is always going to give up some plays. Holding a good offense to 16 earned points on the road in regulation is a winning performance, and it's on the offense to score 20 points themselves. They couldn't do it despite scoring 3 times (13 points) on three of their first four possessions.

Doug Pederson’s teams have actually made the playoffs in 4 of the past 5 seasons and his postseason record is 5-3.

Allen played terribly in that game but got lucky. Houston DBs dropped multiple easy INTs.

I am going to push back HARD on your thin interpretation of the Houston playoff game. The D essentially gave up 16 points in regulation plus another three because Allen fumbled at midfield, which led to a FG after a defensive stop. Then, in OT, the Bills actually made a stop, forcing a punt. Then Cody Ford happened. And on the game-deciding play, Frazier made the perfect call with a Milano blitz. Milano had watson dead to rights and simply blew the tackle. That should have been a sack, full stop. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202001040htx.htm

Daqoun Jones being out in that game was actually huge.

I just compared him with a random “name” running back, Joe Mixon. Over his career, Singletary has 13 fumbles on 817 touches, and he had 3 this year: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SingDe00.htm Mixon, on the other hand, has 6 fumbles on 1,545 touches, and he had zero this year. In fact, he has had 3 seasons with zero fumbles: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MixoJo00.htm

And the current Bills center is actually above average.

Honestly, a 7-3 record in Super Bowls is significantly more impressive than 7-0, much less 4-0. Getting to the SB ten times is incredible.

Remember the halftime show where scores of small children choreographed an impassioned rush to the stage while Jacko performed? If only the NFL knew then what we know now! I also remember being surrounded by filthy rich Cowboys fans, and at least one had a gold lame cowboy hat (we had really good seats through a stroke of luck). Should have been 59-24 -- Lett should have scored and James Lofton dropped the easiest of TD passes in last-minute garbage time.

Or Malcolm Butler in 2018.

More like a big lead and no need to throw it every play. He threw it 29 times and had a rating of 125.8. He had a legit great game. Total qb throwing yardage is a highly misleading stat. Focus on efficiency.