dave mcbride

I should have been clearer. I think the Dolphins have steadily improved over the course of the season as they’ve absorbed McDaniel’s very good Shanahan-based system. Get that, but see my post above. I truly think Miami has improved over the course of the season. They had a tough loss to SF, but it was competitive most of the way and on the road vs the best D in the NFL.

I think Prescott is a lot better than just “good” now and is the sort of qb who has it in him to make more than just one SB appearance. He has to overcome his head coach, although the defensive coaching is excellent. Now that Jimmy G is down, I think Dallas is pretty clearly the best team in the NFC.

I hope you’re right about Miami, but the Bills tend to struggle against Tyreek Hill, and Waddle is the same sort of player. I am hopeful but I am certainly not chalking it up asa victory. Miami is a good team with a smart coach.

Not sure about the Bills/Bengals getting home field because the Chiefs’ remaining schedule is so easy. They should by all rights go 14-3. Only one of the Bills five remaining opponents has a losing record, and Cincy has a very tough schedule too (the Browns, who they’ve lost 5 in a row too, often being blown out; at the Patriots; at Tampa; the Bills; and the Ravens in a game in which Lamar Jackson should be back). I think KC probably gets home field in the end because I have a hard time seeing the Bills going 5-0. KC has a better record than Cincy so they’re in control of their own destiny vis-a-vis the Bengals. Garoppolo was having a sensational season this year (103 rating). Since he was signed by them, the Niners are 38-17 when he has started and 8-28 when he hasn’t. Seems like a pretty stark divide to me.

The Bills play the Bengals soon and are competing with them for playoff seeding. It’s entirely relevant. Moreover, this board has never just been a parochial Bills-only board. It would be a lot more boring if it was.

I thought Philly was the third best team in the NFC prior to Sunday. My SB pick was the 49ers, who I think is pretty much equal to Dallas but with a better coach, but it’s hard to see that now. I think Dallas is definitely better than Philly and is only behind them because Prescott was out for a while early on. I think they have more talent and a better D. Philly is a good team, of course.

Totally agree about shoulder injury in the Jets game in early 2020. He played hurt all season because of it.

He was excellent in 2019.

Can't disagree with Cosell here. Chris Simms has been saying the same thing for months. The o-line is flat out not very good.

Yikes. Dropping like flies.

Like I said, I never take road games against bad teams for granted. Just alerting folks that the Bears are losing one of their only difference-making defensive players for the season.

That may be, but he's an undrafted free agent rookie who has only played a majority of the snaps on D in the last four games. For the first seven, he didn't play at all. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SanbJa00.htm. I'm not too worried about him.

I don't take any road games for granted, so I figured I'd post this. The Bears had three really good defensive players going into this season: Roquan Smith, Robert Quinn, and Eddie Jackson. The first two were traded and Jackson appears to have a lisfranc injury that will probably end his season: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/11/29/bears-believe-eddie-jackson-has-significant-lisfranc-injury/. The Bills will be facing a Bears D that it is genuinely devoid of talent, starting a bunch of guys few here have ever heard of (if any, truth be told): https://www.chicagobears.com/team/depth-chart.

Not quite accurate. He did get injured on that play in 2016, but was off to his best start ever in 2018 through 8 games before suffering ANOTHER shoulder injury on a hit from TJ Watt while in the pocket and in the process of beginning his throw. That injury was worse than the earlier one and essentially ended his career as an NFL-caliber thrower. But your basic point stands.

These are great comments and match up with what I've been seeing.

I *KNOW* he had an injury in 2016. And yeah, it probably affected him to some extent. Yet midway through 2018 he was still playing at an elite level. The injury that really effed him up was the rotator cuff injury delivered by Watt while he was in the pocket. He was a shell of himself after that and never recovered.

https://www.si.com/nfl/panthers/gm-report/a-timeline-of-the-cam-newton-saga I tend to think it was the watt hit because up until that point in 2018, he was playing arguably the best football of his career and the panthers were 6-2. “November 2018 - Cam Newton suffers significant shoulder injury. This is where many people believe things took a turn for the worst in Cam Newton's career. The Panthers were off to a hot 6-2 start to open the 2018 season, and Newton was enjoying (arguably) the best season of his career so far. Then, week ten against the Pittsburgh Steelers happened. Linebacker T.J. Watt gave Newton a nasty illegal hit in the first quarter of the game. It was later determined that Newton suffered a shoulder injury that affected him for the rest of the year. He couldn't make the downfield throws that he used to make with ease, and opponents keyed in on this. Because "Super Cam" was weakened by his significant "Kryptonite" injury, the Panthers finished with a 7-9 record and missed the playoffs.”

No it didn’t. It happened in the pocket. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/07/09/cam-newton-says-2016-shoulder-injury-affected-him-for-years/ The video: https://www.nfl.com/videos/t-j-watt-jars-ball-loose-with-big-hit-278841

His career was shortened because of hits he took in the pocket, specifically to his shoulder. He lost his ability to throw. He went from having a very strong arm to one of the weakest in the league after his rotator cuff injury.

Agree on KC. The only team that I think will give them trouble is the Raiders, a divisional opponent that has talent and the ability to score a lot of points. I don't see them losing to Cincy, and the rest of their schedule is an absolute cakewalk (Denver twice, Houston, Seattle at home). I have them as the AFC SB representative facing off against SF. A bye and home field is just too much of an advantage. In the NFC, I think Dallas and SF are the two best teams and basically equal overall, but I'm going with the superior coach (Shanahan over McCarthy). Barring catastrophic injuries, a KC-SF SB seems like the most likely scenario to me.

Mods, merge if you see fit:

Well, the Bills throw a lot and he is really hard to sack. And a lot of the near sacks result in 15 yard runs and 25-yard scramble throws. It seems to me that teams probably do more leaps to block passes against the Bills than against other teams. It stands to reason, and also the number of passes that are actually tipped is very, very low. With someone like Goff or Mac Jones or Stafford or Burrow or Garappolo or Cousins, it’s probably wiser to just tee off and go for the sack.

?? — the throw started out perfectly and was on a rope. If that isn’t tipped, it’s a TD. Tips happen and they are essentially random. I will grant that the d-line did seem to know what was coming, but that’s on the play caller, not the player. I don’t really fault Allen for that pick. There is randomness in the sport and that’s a classic example. Again, it was a bullet that was going to be a TD.

I had the same thought!

Taron Johnson hasn’t missed a start. He’s a starter.