dave mcbride

Barnwell watches football. He's a good analyst, and he backed up his argument with evidence. I'm more bullish on the Bills than him, but it is the case that the Bills offense was truly abysmal last season and that the QB had accuracy issues. Assuming everything is going to change for the better is what homers do.

In the last 8 years, the AFC east has two WC appearances (Dolphins in 2016 and Bills in 2017), which is way below what it should be statistically. Turns out going 0-2 vs. NE and splitting against the better of the other two divisional opponents (which will be the Jets this year for the Bills; they are better than people here think) perpetually gets you to 3-3 in the division. That means you have to go 7-3 against everyone else. In the NFC North, everyone has a shot. GB, Minnesota, and Chicago have all won the division in the past three seasons.

So much of this comes down to whether you think Allen is better than Darnold or vice versa. I like Allen, but I always liked Darnold more, and I think Darnold is going to be very good. That's not to say that Allen won't be very good! But I think most observers see a lot more in Darnold than they do in Allen, at least at this point. And that's sensible. I also continue to strongly believe that the Bills loved Darnold and would have loved to have taken him. Bottom line: the Jets have their problems, but winning and losing depends so much on QB play/talent. That's why people aren't as down on the Jets as some of us here think they should be. Um ... there is a team in the Bills division that regularly wins it walking away, making it impossible for any other team to get in except via the wildcard.

The Lions had winning seasons in three of the previous four seasons, and Stafford is a genuinely good QB. And as 122 says, they have a very talented D-Line.

His performance against Washington in 2016 was the most inexcusable performance by a Bills player I have ever seen, especially given how much money he was making. He’s a dope and narcissist. No excuses for that guy.

Shady is a lot better than he looked last season, when he was being hit five yards behind the LOS every other play (seriously) - a function of a historically bad line and an abysmal passing attack. Evaluations of his play last season by pundits were SO stupid. On passing plays, he pretty much showed that he was still the same elusive, fast player as he ever was. He has been an elite, HOF-level RB up until now, and assuming that opponents aren’t able to send 8 against him every time he’s on the field this season (and assuming that a woeful line gets a lot better), I expect a real rebound in 2019. Assuming I’m right (admittedly, a big assumption), Elliott ain’t that much of an upgrade (if an upgrade at all) over what the Bills currently have.

I think the Bills' RB situation is arguably the best in the league, so no, I wouldn't make that trade. They need that first to take a stud WR next year in what's going to be an amazing WR draft.

McDermott knows the power of getting to the QB. The 2013 Panthers (12-4; 2nd in yards allowed, 2nd in points allowed; first in sacks) had a ridiculous 60 sacks, and those sacks were a large reason they were so dominant. They were just slightly above average in giving up rushing yards on a per attempt basis, but absolutely dominated in the pressure game (a ridiculous 9.6 percent sack rate on opposing qb dropbacks). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/car/2013.htm Yup, and I'm not saying he's the second coming or anything like that. But he has shown that he can get to the qb at an above average rate, and that's a huge asset given the overall quality of the DB corps. That's the sort of thing that leads to turnovers. If Murphy plays well in the pass rush game, no one is going to want to face them given the overall talent level on the defense.

Agreed. My issue with Lawson is his physical ability in the pass rush game. Frankly, he's just not quick (a "leaner" as @BADOLBILZmemorably described him the day he was drafted), and against a decent RT, he's going to be handled. Forget lining him up against a decent LT. Now maybe he gets strong enough where he can be bull-rushing beast that can created havoc via that method, but I'll need to see him do that with some regularity first. Barring injury, he's likely to have a long career in the NFL as relatively inexpensive d-line depth, but he's a classic replacement-level starter up to this point.

In the season he had 9 sacks for Washington, he didn't start one game. He was a pass rushing specialist for them, and at the end of the day he's going to remain a pass rushing specialist . However, this is a passing league, and a guy who can get to the passer regularly is more valuable than a low-twitch plodder whose best attribute is effectively setting the edge in the run game (i.e., Shaq up until now).

What happens in practice matters a ton.

How good is Tony Pollard? He looks pretty good so far, and Dallas has been a very good drafting team in the last few years ...

He has McKelvin ahead of Peters. My god.

He's a D+ because you really should expect a lot more from a top 20 pick. The grade is correct. If you're a drafting a guy in the first round who plays like an earlier fourth rounder, you deserve a bad grade.

D+ in american grading is basically 68 percent. B is an 85, and A is 95.

John: thanks for responding. In my experience reading Florio over the years, he has spent far more space discussing a move by Jax than Buffalo (which makes sense because a Jax move to London is actually quite plausible, if not necessarily probable). I just don’t think he has it in for Buffalo. As for whether the union can dictate terms, I’ve never viewed big-time pro sports players associations as unions; they operate far more like guilds. That’s neither good nor bad, but they do certainly have more power relative to management than than the intrinsically replaceable workers who work in most fields. The NFL players have less than NBA and MLB players, I know, but that’s because they’re more replaceable.

Yet somehow the Packers are 100-57-1 when he starts.

Yep. Look at the respective AVs for Buckner and Shaq: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LawsSh00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BuckDe00.htm @GunnerBill- Lawson had 8 qb hits in his first two seasons and Buckner had 40. That's a huge disparity.

You asked ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesus_H._Christ

This is false. In the 9 games he played with Flacco, he had 34 receptions for 601 yards (prorated over 16 games - 60 receptions for 1,068 yards, 17.8 ypr, and 7.5 TDs, which is obviously very good). In Flacco's final start, Brown was targeted 6 times (3 catches for 15 yds) but he also was the beneficiary of a DPI call on Pittsburgh on a bomb that moved the Ravens 33 yards down the field. ALL of his decline last year can be attributed to Jackson. Jackson threw 31 passes his way, and only 8 resulted in completions. As for the ups and downs of his receiving numbers while Flacco was in there, ALL receivers have spiky game-by-game stats. Also, his "big injury history" has caused him to miss 7 games in 5 seasons (and none last season). He's basically pretty durable. Just about every player who plays for half a decade has a stint or two on the injury list.

His most productive season was the one where Watt missed the whole season! He had 21 tackles for loss and led the league in tackles for loss/no gain to go with 9.5 sacks (2017). I just don't get some of the rhetoric here. People look at sack lines and nothing else.

They were #2 in defensive DVOA, which is richer and far more holistic measure that factors in competition etc. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef They were also third in the league with regard to passer rating, and team passer rating differential is the best predictor of all stats with regard to winning and losing. Unfortunately, the Bills' offensive passer rating at the team level was abysmal. https://www.si.com/more-sports/2011/06/23/most-importantstatpasserratingdifferential

Speaking of Gilmore's recs ... NE has over $16 million in cap space at the moment, and he'd be a good addition there ...

Allen put it exactly where it was supposed to be -- not leading him out in front of him because that's the throw that will get him killed (or possibly get picked off). Jones was already looking back, and didn't have to slow down at all. And he didn't even have to reach - the throw was at eye level (perfect) and right in his hands. Anyone who doesn't think that was basically a perfect throw needs to watch a lot more football. By the way, as anyone can tell you here, I've been critical of Allen's accuracy. I got roasted last season here for not blaming Charles Clay on that final throw vs. Miami. The point is that I'm hardly a homer with regard to Allen. But that was a damn good throw.

Um ... the Allen pass was right on target. Exactly where it should have been. The pass was right on the money, so why are we even debating this, at least with regard to this pass??