dave mcbride

I agree with the thrust of what you're saying, but it might be similar for other positions too outside of QB (that is, no team is letting a good QB get away).

Yup.

They also don't have a whole lot to give. That's the problem.

Oh. My.

Here's the more technical definition of the acronym:

I'm fine with a smaller trade-up for Brian Thomas, Jr, who I think has real stud potential. I realize there might be some risk, but he's a specimen who has produced.

The 538 analysis covers players drafted in 1990 or later and who retired before 2013, so that doesn't really refute my point. And it says this: "No surprises here: The higher the draft pick, the longer a player will stick around in the NFL. First-rounders last a year longer than second-rounders, and the same goes for second-rounders compared with third-rounders. The gaps between rounds narrow slightly in the latter half of the draft, but a seventh-round pick like Mr. Irrelevant, the last pick of the NFL draft, can expect a career just under half as long as the average first-rounder. This is evidence that teams are getting better talent in earlier rounds." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-hard-to-tell-how-good-nfl-teams-are-at-the-draft/

Thought this was interesting: 'Over the course of the draft process, there have been more frequent reports about some teams grading out LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers higher than Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. That definitely is the case; I know sources with multiple teams that said their franchises have Nabers over Harrison. One AFC director of player personnel told WalterFootball.com: Nabers’ tape is more impressive than Harrison’s …. We have a blue – elite – grade on Nabers with Harrison in gold. We think Harrison could get to blue as a pro, but right now, Nabers is the only receiver we have in blue. While Nabers has some teams rating him ahead of Harrison, one thing going for Harrison is there are teams that have some character concerns with Nabers. Harrison did not come up with character concerns. Sources from multiple teams with top-10 picks said they had character marks for Nabers. That being said, they said the character was not bad enough to cause them to pass on him based on the questions or remove him from their draft board. Thus, Nabers looks like a near lock for the top six of the 2024 NFL Draft.'

That paper is from 2005 and based on data mostly from the 1980s/1990s, when some GMs were still consulting Street and Smith's to figure out who to take in the third round and/or spending top five picks on running backs. Teams have a LOT more resources now and are generally better evaluators than they were then. No one is trading an entire draft for Ricky Williams. And as for the model recently, just look at the Pats - they followed the Massey/Thaler advice yet from 2014-2023, yet their hordes of draft picks mostly resulted in a vast wasteland. Has anyone tried to replicate their analysis for this analytics-dominant era? I honestly suspect that the results will not be replicated.

Also of note - in the year prior to this time range, 2013, De’andre Hopkins went at 27.

I hear you. That said, I think Odunze is amazing and everything the Bills need in a WR. I see the next Davante Adams in him. He’s also a non-moron.

Aiyuk was a second team all pro last season. The pro bowl is meaningless in comparison. Also, DJ Moore is phenomenal. Pro bowl appearances are about the stupidest measuring stick of all.

McDaniel is a lot smarter than you give him credit for.

Gonna push back a little. A little better than average qb (if you don’t have one) is worth ten times more than an elite receiver/DE/CB/LT. It’s just such a far more important position, and it’s not even arguable. Hence you might want to factor that into your grades. I like Simms, but he LOVED Zach Wilson. I do get it — we’ve all been wrong about prospects (Sam Darnold on my end).

I don't *think* this will happen, but given the Vikings overall roster, which is pretty good, I could see them possibly going 10-7 and I think it's in the realm of possibility that the Bills end up in the same place. I guess all I'm saying is that I wouldn't assume 100 percent that the Vikings will be bad and that their pick will be better. Darnold isn't great, but he's not horrible and he's definitely an upgrade over what they had after Cousins went down last season. Darnold went 4-2 with Carolina in 2022 on a team with a pretty bad roster overall. It is a tough division, though.

https://theathletic.com/5431528/2024/04/23/nfl-draft-2024-confidential-nabers-harrison-williams/ Tons and tons of interesting insights/comments from coaches across the league. Long piece and worth your time.

Don’t get me wrong - a shoulder injury that’s non-crippling doesn’t phase me.

Thomas is going in the first round. Do not risk it.

Jeremiah has Kneeland as his 45th best player. I don't profess to know anything. Why do you think he sucks?

Also, listening to Adunze, I can see why teams love him. He comes across as pretty sharp -- like, waaay smarter than your average NFL receiver:

Lots of good stuff from Albert Breer of SI: https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/04/022/takeaways-nfl-draft-latest-buzz-rumors-medicals "• Both of LSU’s star receivers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers, have issues with their left shoulders. The risk here is considered relatively minimal—in both cases, there’s a chance the player may have to have the shoulder surgically repaired after the 2024 season. Bryan Bresee, the Saints’ first-round pick last year, had a similar situation with his shoulder coming into the draft last year." Shades of Shaq Lawson in 2016?

Bobby Clarke had type I diabetes, and like Santo he is in the hall of fame. https://www.rciscience.ca/100-lives/bobby-clarke From another site: "Bobby Clarke's epic in-game nutrition: two phentermine cans of coca-cola with three spoonfuls of added sugar before the game. Half a glass of orange with added sugar between periods and a full glass after the game. He also packed chocolate bars and glucose gum in his uniform pockets." He has Troy Franklin pretty low and D'Vondre Sweat very low.

Daniel Jeremiah's top 150 is now up: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-150-prospects-in-the-2024-nfl-draft-class

Interesting comp with Flacco. I think McCarthy is significantly more mobile than Flacco ever was. Having said that, Flacco in retrospect should have been a top five pick in this draft and maybe even second overall after Matt Ryan: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2008/draft.htm. He's had a very good career overall.