dave mcbride

It's quite rare in the last 10-12 years for this to happen. Prior to the Chiefs run, the Pats had byes from 2011-2018 and made the championship game every year, going to the SB five times. The only that got the SB in the AFC with no bye in that time period was the 2012 Ravens. The bye and home field are huge advantages, and the stats show that. Of course, there are times where it doesn't work out for the team with the bye (the Lions this year, Baltimore last year), but going back to 2007, in the AFC a team without a bye has only gone to the SB three times (2012 Ravens, 2021 Bengals, 2023 Chiefs). 15 out of 18 times, a bye team made the SB.

Well said.

It really is all about the bye. The Pats had a bye in the divisional round in 2010 and inexplicably lost to the Jets despite featuring their best roster over the entire BB era (IMHO), but had a bye every year after that and reached the championship game 8 years in a row with 5 SB appearances. Very similar trajectory.

I just thought the details were interesting. Torrence was lost on that fourth down play because he had been coached to anticipate a different blitz, and Rousseau kept surrendering the edge because he had been coached to anticipate something else when the Chiefs were in that formation. To me, it represents the difference among coaching staffs between responsible, situationally aware, and adaptive creativity and diligent, studious, and (unfortunately) rote memorization.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6092739/2025/01/27/bills-locker-cleanout-chiefs-afc-title-game/ (My takeaway: a lot of our criticisms of players on the field (Rousseau, Torrence) aren't all that fair because their misses are a product of being outschemed by a staff exploiting the Bills' dedication to past film.) ... Start with the fourth-and-5 at the end of the Bills’ final offensive drive. The fact that the ball hit Dalton Kincaid in the hands makes him an easy target for blame. But the only reason Josh Allen was in that position, heaving up a prayer off his back foot, is because of the blitz Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo called. The Bills had seen it on film, but the tendency was different. “We called protection to slide left,” Bills right guard O’Cyrus Torrence said Monday as Bills players cleaned out their lockers. “From film, they would blitz from where they weren’t showing it from. They showed it from the right, so we were thinking they were doing it from the left. But they actually brought it from the right this time. You could say it was an error, but they just called the better play than we had on offense.” ... One of the main differences in the game was the way Patrick Mahomes was able to stress Buffalo’s defense with his legs. The Athletic’s Mike Sando detailed earlier this year how Mahomes scrambles a lot more often in the fourth quarter of one-score games. He’s also added more EPA by scrambles in those situations than any quarterback in the NFL since the beginning of 2023. Mahomes finished the game with 11 rushing attempts for 43 yards and two touchdowns. And 17 of those yards and one touchdown came on two rushes in the fourth quarter. Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau said some of the situations Mahomes ran in caught them off guard. For instance, Mahomes’ 10-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter came with a formation in which the Chiefs had two tight ends lined up next to Mahomes. Rousseau said he didn’t see that on any of the breakdowns he watched during the week. “He’s a dual-threat quarterback,” Rousseau said. “Sometimes with him, you look at the film from the regular-season game and he was more so throwing the ball. Then last night he was running the ball a lot more. It was a lot more boots and they kind of changed up the game plan. You kind of don’t know what you’re going to get with a quarterback like him.” According to TruMedia, this was the second-highest scramble percentage Mahomes has had in a game in his career. The only time he scrambled more was in a 2020 regular-season win against the Bills. He was pressured on 29 percent of his dropbacks. He’s only lost six times in his career when pressured at that rate or lower. This is also the first time in his career he’s had two rushing touchdowns in a game. “The plays where he got out, it was just Mahomes magic,” Miller said. “He saw a little crease and got out. Whether it was a stunt that we had that way or whether it was a blitz that we had the opposite way. We knew in the playoffs the odds of him running go way up because he’s the guy over there. Just like Josh (Allen). Josh runs a little more in the playoffs. He was just seeing those creases and making it happen. Out of all the stuff that happened, it all came down to just a couple of plays. ... But regardless of the ball spot on that quarterback sneak, the Bills had a much tougher time with that play against the Chiefs than they did throughout the season. In the regular season, Allen had 17 rushing first downs on 18 tries on third or fourth down and 1 yard to go. The Chiefs stopped him three different times in those situations. What was often an impossible play for defenses to stop this season became predictable for the Chiefs. “Those plays you always just have to win your block I would say and hopefully the call is good enough,” Torrence said. “It’s still just a game of inches. You watch film and think you know what the defense is going to do and then they come out and do something different. I think that’s kind of what was getting us a little bit. They slammed a few times and sometimes they didn’t. Crowding the ball real well, things like that.” Like in other areas, the Chiefs had answers when the Bills didn’t. It’s fair to second-guess offensive coordinator Joe Brady for not adjusting, especially with how well James Cook was running. But that’s also a play that has been Buffalo’s go-to in those spots. “That has been a staple in our offense when we get to that, we always do that,” Torrence said. “That’s why we never went away from it. If we’re going to get it, we’re going to get it because we’ve been getting it all year. So I don’t feel bad that coach was calling it because he put the game in our hands and gave us a chance to get the first down.” ... When Allen spoke Monday, he did so with his right hand and wrist wrapped. He said the injury happened on the two-point conversion attempt at the end of the first half. He had some swelling Monday, but the pain was manageable during the game. In a game that came down to the slimmest of margins, though, having your franchise quarterback’s throwing hand and wrist banged up isn’t ideal. Allen doesn’t anticipate any of the minor aches and pains he had coming out of the season to require medical attention beyond rest, though. Also on the injury front, tight end Dawson Knox revealed that Kincaid was playing on two injured knees. He had a torn PCL in one knee and had a bunch of fluid in the other knee. Both Knox and Allen were quick to defend Kincaid for his drop at the end of the game. The degree of difficulty was high on the play, but Allen somehow hit him in the hands. But that was just one moment in an underwhelming second season for Kincaid. The 2023 first-round pick had just 448 yards and two touchdowns this season and then added only six catches for 71 yards in the playoffs. “I have to be better for him,” Allen said. “I didn’t feel like I put him in enough situations this year ball placement-wise. Even the one last night, I left it behind him and allowed 32 (Nick Bolton) to make a play on it. He can sit there and think about that play over and over, but I have to be better. That’s what it comes down to. I know he’s been battling throughout the entire year, bumps and bruises, probably games he shouldn’t have played he was in. But he’s a tough sucker and I have nothing but love for him and how he’s approached this year. He’s going to be so much better next year. ... Allen spoke glowingly about how unselfish Cooper was and how much he loved playing with him. Cooper is a free agent, and he said he doesn’t know yet what the future holds. He’s open to returning to the Bills if it makes sense for both sides because he would love a chance to finish what he started. He also said quarterback play would influence his decision in free agency, and he knows what he has in Allen. “It’s a huge factor,” Cooper said. “Truth be told it’s the most important position on the field. Their position just holds a lot more weight based off the responsibility that they have. Whoever is in that position at any given team is going to say a lot about the team and their ability to win in the big moments. It’s very important.” ... “Coming into training camp I still wasn’t sure that I could play football,” Miller said. “I think I proved myself that I’ve done enough for myself to build the confidence up that I can come back for Year 15. Year 16 that’s way down the road, but I have Year 15 on the books for sure.” Miller said he’ll keep coming to One Bills Drive as long as his key card works. He wants to return to the Bills and thinks that feeling is mutual.

That's not really 100 percent accurate in the sense that there WAS a lot of interest in taking him high. KC traded with the Bills because they were certain that Sean Payton/Loomis were going to take him at 11. It's interesting to think about Mahomes in a Payton system. He probably would have performed similarly.

Torrence on this play -- oof. Looks even worse from this angle. WTAF is he thinking??

The Pirates are the only team I have ever abandoned. I was a passionate fan as a kid, but I gave up in the early-mid 2000s when it was abundantly clear what their wretched owner was up to (including the lying about losing money).

Amazing watching a rookie Joe Montana there. I remember that game well. That Niners team won the SB the next season!

Recall that at the 5:20 mark, this was not called DPI.

Two things can happen at the same time, and they did!

Watched it again last night thinking like you and @Shaw66, but Josh was DEFINITELY down at the two. Not even arguable, and the refs spotted it appropriately. Watch it again from the reverse angle. I thought the non-calls on Shakir and especially Cooper were right. The slight hook on Shakir didn’t impede him (the pass was off anyways) and that literally happens on almost every play. The defenders are actually allowed to contact receivers (after all, it’s a contact sport). Outside of the Dawkins call (compensated for by the very questionable call on Tre White), it was a pretty well officiated game.

He also slipped at the most inopportune moment on a very icy field.

About 45 seconds before the forced fumble, I texted a high school friend group (all knowledgeable bills fans) and said, “terrell bernard is having a pretty bad game.” One minute later i wrote, “i take that back!” Agree with what you say above.

Thought of you when I saw Simms saying the same in his next-day convo with Florio. I still kinda disagree with you because I don’t think throws need to be perfect to be “good” throws, but I like Simms and he obviously played the game at a high level and worked for Belichick for a year. So maybe he’s right???🙂

I thought he played fine. He got called for a BS penalty -- BS in the sense that it should clearly have been a "let 'em play" decision by the ref given that it could have been called on either of them (and moreover this sort of thing happens all the time) -- but that was his only negative play.

I thought the throw was right on the money. He was obviously supposed to go there, but was slow getting out of his break and was late. He barked about being held, but it was normal (if real) contact and pretty good defense.

They’re all good. Great QB draft. What do you mean by that?

I rewatched the game tonight. On the one throw to Cooper, the throw was to a spot, and it was accurate. He couldn’t fight through it (and no, it wasn’t a penalty, just good defense) and then started barking at the refs. And he also possibly broke in the wrong direction.

Nah. It’s kinda BS that the teams that get the one-week bye get an extra one-day bye before the conference championship weekend.

You’re neglecting the Bills, who were 9th in passing yards and 5th in ypa. The Bills averaged only 5.7 yards per passing play after averaging over 10 yards per passing play the week before in the cold vs a top 5 defense (Denver). I don’t care who the Ravens played — they have great defenders and their defense was truly elite in the last half of the season. So the weak competition argument doesn’t convince me at all. They also shut down the bills’ passing game in week 4 too.

The Ravens’ pass D has been lights out since week 11. In 7 out of 9 games they held opponents to under 200 yards passing. They also gave up 202 in one game and 251 vs the Steelers in the playoff game, but most of those yards were garbage time yards: 211 passing yards in the second half when the game was out of hand and not in doubt. At halftime, they were up 21-0 and had given up just 40 passing yards. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/2024.htm

Allen because of the 2 rushing TDs. I mean, who else could they give it to? No one on D and no one else on O.

Texans also missed 7 points on kicks.

The Ravens defense is really good. It bears repeating that they were the best defense in the league by far over the final seven weeks of the season. And they dominated the Steelers in the playoff game too when it mattered (ie, before a very long garbage time session).