dave mcbride

To be fair, if Rome Udonze gets past 10 (unlikely, in my view, but we'll see), I would have no problem using our 2025 first to move up and get him. He's going to be great, I think.

I'd save that 2025 second if possible because next year looks to be a GREAT edge draft, and they'll need one -- and presumably ammo to move up given that they have Josh freaking Allen as their qb. But I'm not averse to trading it either for the right deal.

Good plan. If the Commanders are desperate, though, I'd drive a little harder of a bargain: I'd offer 28, 144, and 160 for 36 and 67. Moving up 8 is substantial. I'd then trade 67 and, say, 128 to move to the 50s and get the second receiver that we should be drafting. We can take Cole Bishop or D-line at 60 (depending on our plan for Justin Simmons); CB/LB at 133 and 163 (CB depth scares me; sequence depends on who is available); and developmental o-line/d-line in the sixth and 7th.

We have an extra second next year that I think we should use to move up in the second to get that second boundary receiver assuming we go Worthy at 28. Coleman, Baker ... both can fit that role and for all the worries about Coleman's speed, it's probably OK when you're running him other alongside blazers like Worthy (4.21) and Curtis Samuel (4.31). Plus Shakir has excellent quicks. Interesting thing about Samuel: he has not played with a good QB since the first half of the 2018 season (Cam Newton got hurt mid-season that year and was never the same). He's played with trash ever since.

Yup, I agree that is one of the more interesting ones in a while. I think that's the because the Bills are at a true inflection point, moving from phase one of the Josh Allen Bills to phase two of the Josh Allen Bills (and I think there will be three phases in the end). All elite franchise QBs who stick around get basically an entirely new team every 6-7 years. Just look at Brady/Pats, Roethlisberger/Steelers, Rogers/Packers, etc. Mahomes still has Kelce but not for much longer, and even there it's basically an entirely new group outside of Kelce. Anyway, the Bills have to nail this draft AND the post-June 1 FA landscape. I have a sneaking suspicion based on no evidence that they have a deal in place with Justin Simmons, who bizarrely hasn't been signed yet. Something is up with that. He's a really good player - second team all pro four out of the past five years! Maybe the fact that he's 30 worries teams, but he's too good to be sitting there.

Sure, but probably the best player ever outside of Babe Ruth even factoring in the steroids. But yeah, the opposite of likable.

To echo Happy, Campbell is good and plugged in.

They were better in 2022 than in 2021, actually. The only difference in outcome is that they won an extremely close game vs KC in the AFCCG in January 2022 and lost an extremely close game in the AFCCG in January 2023 (on a personal foul call, of all things).

On Chris Simms’s show, he had someone on saying that there is a huge divide between casual college football fans who tend to think some version of what you say here and actual NFL teams’ views on McCarthy. Simms pointed out that he’ll come in to the league with one of the strongest arms (he clocked 61 mph at the combine, which is truly elite). He also was by far and away the top rated passer in major college ball on 3rd/4th downs over the past two seasons, which is a key analytics stat for teams. They were a run-first team so he was never really asked to throw that much, but teams apparently think quite highly of him.

Barry Bonds wants a word with you!

There are zero trades in Jeremiah’s draft, which is ridiculous and an indicator to me that a person doesn’t have the courage of his own convictions. It is a day before the draft — project trades, which ALWAYS happen.

Our best is josh allen, and he left the field with under 2 minutes to go and his kicker in position to make a kick that is usually made that would equal Mahomes’s output. He had no control over the fact that our kicker — who is stilll weirdly on the team after going 2 for 5 in the postseason — had the yips.

Did you notice the otherwise amazing game he played on the 60+ other snaps? If you didn’t, the game is a available on youtube and you’ll see. He had a great season last year and dumping a left tackle in his prime is about the dumbest thing a team can do. Also, on that one play, he was facing the 2023 version of aaron donald (chris jones), and it’s not as if he got destroyed. He was up against the best d-lineman in the league on a money play, and it is what it is.

I agree with the thrust of what you're saying, but it might be similar for other positions too outside of QB (that is, no team is letting a good QB get away).

Yup.

They also don't have a whole lot to give. That's the problem.

Oh. My.

Here's the more technical definition of the acronym:

I'm fine with a smaller trade-up for Brian Thomas, Jr, who I think has real stud potential. I realize there might be some risk, but he's a specimen who has produced.

The 538 analysis covers players drafted in 1990 or later and who retired before 2013, so that doesn't really refute my point. And it says this: "No surprises here: The higher the draft pick, the longer a player will stick around in the NFL. First-rounders last a year longer than second-rounders, and the same goes for second-rounders compared with third-rounders. The gaps between rounds narrow slightly in the latter half of the draft, but a seventh-round pick like Mr. Irrelevant, the last pick of the NFL draft, can expect a career just under half as long as the average first-rounder. This is evidence that teams are getting better talent in earlier rounds." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-hard-to-tell-how-good-nfl-teams-are-at-the-draft/

Thought this was interesting: 'Over the course of the draft process, there have been more frequent reports about some teams grading out LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers higher than Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. That definitely is the case; I know sources with multiple teams that said their franchises have Nabers over Harrison. One AFC director of player personnel told WalterFootball.com: Nabers’ tape is more impressive than Harrison’s …. We have a blue – elite – grade on Nabers with Harrison in gold. We think Harrison could get to blue as a pro, but right now, Nabers is the only receiver we have in blue. While Nabers has some teams rating him ahead of Harrison, one thing going for Harrison is there are teams that have some character concerns with Nabers. Harrison did not come up with character concerns. Sources from multiple teams with top-10 picks said they had character marks for Nabers. That being said, they said the character was not bad enough to cause them to pass on him based on the questions or remove him from their draft board. Thus, Nabers looks like a near lock for the top six of the 2024 NFL Draft.'

That paper is from 2005 and based on data mostly from the 1980s/1990s, when some GMs were still consulting Street and Smith's to figure out who to take in the third round and/or spending top five picks on running backs. Teams have a LOT more resources now and are generally better evaluators than they were then. No one is trading an entire draft for Ricky Williams. And as for the model recently, just look at the Pats - they followed the Massey/Thaler advice yet from 2014-2023, yet their hordes of draft picks mostly resulted in a vast wasteland. Has anyone tried to replicate their analysis for this analytics-dominant era? I honestly suspect that the results will not be replicated.

Also of note - in the year prior to this time range, 2013, De’andre Hopkins went at 27.

I hear you. That said, I think Odunze is amazing and everything the Bills need in a WR. I see the next Davante Adams in him. He’s also a non-moron.

Aiyuk was a second team all pro last season. The pro bowl is meaningless in comparison. Also, DJ Moore is phenomenal. Pro bowl appearances are about the stupidest measuring stick of all.