dave mcbride

Just one person's take on the season so far, but note that his bottom six players are in the defensive back seven. Among players who have played the requisite number of snaps (minimum of 135), he has Matt Milano as the lowest rated player on the team. In the Miami game, he ranked Milano 31st out of 32.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6799104/2025/11/12/bills-offense-josh-allen-gabe-davis-wide-receiver/ Joe B has observations on the entire receiving corps, but here are his takes on Moore, Samuel, and Davis. Elijah Moore vs. Curtis Samuel: 'The player I think deserves some more run, based on what the film shows, is Elijah Moore. He’s the smallest receiver on their roster, but as a route runner, separator and someone who can eat up space in a hurry because of his speed, he’s the fastest option. Moore runs his routes hard and gets in and out of his breaks quickly. You can see defenders giving him a bit more cushion because of those routes, too. His speed, even for a clearout route, can help more than Curtis Samuel, who has been used in that function quite a bit. Samuel gave the Bills some good snaps near the end of the season, but that same player just has not been there in 2025 despite being fully healthy. Inconsistency has followed his Bills career, and it’s gotten even worse this season. Over his five active games, Samuel has run a total of 73 routes, according to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus. He’s been targeted only six times. For wide receivers in 2025 who have run at least 50 routes, Samuel’s 8.2 percent target rate ranks 138th out of 144 qualifying players. He’s run mostly empty-calorie routes this season and has drawn little attention from defenders. He doesn’t provide the same cushion or verticality as Moore. Plus, Samuel’s routes don’t have the same precision as others on the team. Samuel’s lone target against the Dolphins came on a scramble drill when he just stopped and stood where he was while Allen bought more time for someone to get open. Taking Samuel’s snaps and putting them in the hands of receivers who can better threaten a defense can help maximize Allen’s opportunities.' Gabe Davis: 'As of late last week, the Bills had gone through almost two full weeks of practice with Gabe Davis, who is still somehow only 26 years old. ... So, in his five other practices, how has he looked after almost a yearlong layoff from football? And how close has he looked to the player he was during his first stint with the Bills? The Bills have some long-tenured defensive backs who have seen all of his Buffalo career, and The Athletic caught up with them about Davis on Friday, ahead of the Dolphins game. Each of them said many of the same things, most notably that Davis is already making an impact on the field despite his limited practice time. “Once he got on the practice field that first day, he was making some insane catches. Like jumping up in the air, going to get it,” cornerback Tre’Davious White said. “He looked explosive. He looked fast. Catching great balls, great catch radius. He’s up there in the air getting the ball. He could definitely help us. He can help this team.” “I feel like he’s close to the Gabe that you guys remember before he left,” defensive back Cam Lewis said. “He’s going out there and just being himself. The same player, the same Gabe that you remember, is what we’ve seen so far.” Nickel corner Taron Johnson echoed those sentiments in practice as well, including that when Davis gets to play, he’s going to help the team tremendously. And again, this was all said before the Bills struggled to move the ball through the air in Miami. “I feel like it’s a boost for our offense. … Just another attention grabber for defense,” Lewis said. “Who (defenses) need to pay attention to, keep a roof over. And when you do that, you expose a lot of other areas in your defense.” “I mean, he’s got so much talent. But when you mix the talent with a guy that works extremely hard at what he does, the results are going to show,” White added. “I know what type of player he is. I played with him for three, four, five years, so I just know what he brings to the table. And then Josh trusts him, too. He knows the offense. They have a great relationship off the field, so that always helps.” “I feel like that vertical threat is something that Gabe will help us a lot, too,” Lewis said. “I think he can help us in a lot of different ways. Whenever he gets that green light, I know he’s going to make a lot of plays for our football team.” Trust from Allen and verticality — two things the Bills desperately need from their receivers group — are key reasons Davis could be up and active, possibly as soon as against the Buccaneers this weekend.'

The Dolphins lost 28-6 to the Ravens the week before, but if you watched that game, it was quite competitive. Miami just kept shooting itself in the foot after moving the ball well, and then finally the game got away from them. But that was a more competitive game than the score indicated. And they crushed Atlanta the week before. They're not good, obviously, but they're also not horrible. If they win the TO battle, they can beat most teams. And one could argue that they didn't really turn the ball over at all vs. the Bills -- two arm punts on third and very long with an average of 45 net yards. If those had been incompletions, roughly the same result would have occurred the next play. The Bills' four TOs all took place in Miami territory and took at least 6 points off the board (2 FGs) and possibly 17-20 max (two TDs and a 1- 2 FGs). They lost by 17 points. And yes, I count a failed fourth down attempt as a turnover. It's the same as a lost fumble on fourth down. By not punting, the Dolphins got the ball just shy of Bills territory and quickly scored.

Shakir is open for a five yard gain on that play but the play design is to the other side. The TE is covered and Cook is gonna get blown up after a 4-5 yard gain. No one else is open. They just look open because the ball not being thrown in a particular direction means that NFL defenders are not going to break on the ball (hence the spacing between DBs and receivers, which in reality isn't much spacing at all). Also, @Alphadawg7, maybe you're looking at it differently, but Coleman at no point looks open to me until the very end of the play when it's dead anyway. He's bracketed by two DBs the entire team and there's a clean switch by the Miami secondary when he gets to the next, deeper level.

I think he’s a great playcaller. He’d be a good addition to the Bills. I do get the sense he McDermott like each other, btw.

His best first round pick outside of Allen (admittedly, a historically great pick) is Stefon Diggs. The others: Terrell Edmunds, Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, Kair Elam, Dalton Kincaid, and Maxwell Hairston. I'd include Keon Coleman here too even though he wasn't technically a first rounder. Waddle is better than all of them, although Kincaid and Oliver are very good players (when healthy). Rousseau is good too. Too early to tell on Hairston.

The ironic thing is that the 2027 draft is reportedly believed to be a historically good draft, and FAR better than the 2026 draft. (Flagging @GunnerBill to see if agrees with this). If that's the case, it would seem to me that trading a 2026 pick instead of 2027 pick is the better move, even factoring in the time value of money issue. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/nfl-trade-deadline-2027-draft-class/ https://www.pff.com/news/draft-why-the-2027-nfl-draft-already-has-scouts-drooling

That was a game-deciding play too.

Allen had the lowest sack rate in 2023 too.

Further update: The trend has gotten progressively worse as the season has gone on. And yesterday, any normal QB would have been sacked more than three times given Miami's 17 pressures. He escaped a few that would have resulted in sacks for most others.

Good post, but the Panthers were really good in 2013 too, going 12-4 and leading the league in sacks. Their D finished second overall in both points allowed and yards given up. Hmm ... how does this actually work? EDIT: I looked it up and now see. I stand corrected. He's on the books for next season.

Milano won't count against the cap next year. He's a free agent after this season because his contract was restructured to a one-year deal (2025 only).

Chubb is a really good player. I'm always pretty impressed when I watch him. The other thing about Chubb is that when I think of him, I can only think of Josh Allen. John Elway had a chance to take Allen, who was playing next door at Wyoming, and instead chose a defensive end at the #4 overall pick.

Update: He's 20th in the league this season and slightly worse than league average. The company directly beneath him is mostly (but not entirely) pretty bad. Maye gets sacked a lot, but I think that's pretty typical for a second year qb.

Sacks are really bad. Usually, they are drive killers. Luckily for the Bills, Josh Allen is really good at avoiding sacks. Like, REALLY good. And it's not as if he's lost a step. Yet he is being sacked at a very high rate this season: 7.1 percent, his highest rate since 2019. His offensive line is both very good and healthy, so I'm not blaming either him or the line. At any rate, note the rates in the last column below. He led the league in 2023 with the lowest sack rate, yet was even better last year: a ridiculously low 2.82 percent. Derek Carr was somehow the league leader but he missed nearly half the season, so I'm giving the crown to Allen. That means he basically led the league two years in a row at being the best QB in avoiding sacks. His sack rate this year is perhaps the strongest indictment there is of wide receiver talent and passing game design. Jeff Ulbrich taught the league that you can relentlessly blitz Allen (which the Dolphins did yesterday) without a ton of fear given the wide receiver talent and (possibly; I don't know enough) the passing game scheme. With regard to scheme, is Allen not being given answers in blitz situations? He used to absolutely DESTROY blitzes. Not this year.

Houston has the best run defense in the league by EPA right now. They stifled the Bills last season too.

He threw that exact same pass five weeks ago against the same coverage vs the Saints and it was picked off by the safety!

This seems like a pretty bad read of that play. The safety was watching Allen the whole time and was positioned to get over to Coleman if the ball went that way.

Is this a real possibility? Have you heard anything? Simply curious.

It wasn’t pi. He was playing for the back shoulder throw flag but the ball traveled BEYOND him. It’s gotta be behind him. It wasn’t.

That pass was supposed to got cook but he was completely covered. Allen just did a desperation heave instead. That’s gotta be an Allen sneak. By far and away that’s the highest percentage play.

Pretty terrible drop by thornton

Not saying he’s great, but PFF has a longtime rep of underscoring heavy zone DBs because of separation measures. They infamously had Tre rated fairly low in 2019, when he was a first team all pro (entirely deserved, btw).

Is Tre really playing that badly? My guess is that he's been playing at a league average level for a starting CB. He's hardly a disaster out there and is objectively better for every starting CB for the Dallas Cowboys.

The Miami game is super important — divisional and in-conference.