Yes it is tough because the first part regarding the cap hit is fact, the rest is pure speculation. At most last year there were two kicks missed that could have helped them win a game, though still not certain. I'm all for getting a better kicker, but before I'd spend $1.5 mil, I'd want to make certain it truely is an improvment.
And you're suggesting the Bills spend $1.5 mil on that position and bring in a new guy who has very little of a track record. If a guy like Adam Vinaterri was available, I'm sure they'd be willing to take that chance.
The thing that scares me about France too as was pointed out the other day, if you recall the first year Moormon was here, by the end of the season his leg was tired from NFL Europe + the NFl season. That happening to a field goal kicker can be even worse.