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And a WR who was used way less than 40% of the time in the Slot. Worthy is a tweener and not a true X. I agree that right now, the pick is Thomas Jr., Franklin, or Coleman. And that if we stand pat, it's more likely going to be the 6th WR off the board, not the 4th or 5th - as I see 20 picks between the 3rd coming off the board and 28. And I don't see any way no WR's go in 20 picks and a bit unlikely only 1 is picked in that amount of picks. Though not impossible, I think everyone knows we're picking WR and will attempt to hop 28 to take one.

Obviously, yes. If no one wants to move down, then the point is moot. But the biggest question to me right now is will the 5th WR still be on the board at 24? I'm fairly certain that the top 3 are going in the Top 10 and that the next two will be gone by 28. Maybe we'd have to throw in a 3rd or a 4th next season to sweeten the deal and get a little higher than that? And this is all on the notion that they love Thomas and Franklin. Who knows - maybe they love Coleman just as much. In which case, maybe we don't have to worry about any of this at all. That's where I'm leaning now, yes. We've already seen analysts moving him up the board based on the amount of boxes he checks, some of them double checks. If he tests out very well, as I expect, I think he'll move up even higher. And with the expectation that MHJ, Odunze, and Nabers go in the Top 10 - i'd find it unlikely that just 1 WR goes in the next 18-20 picks. And Franklin is starting to look like the consensus 5th WR off the board. The question to me is - how much higher than 28 is the 5th WR going to go? A couple picks? 4-6 picks? Anything more and they may be too rich for Beane's blood. Though Sal C. is predicting Beane will be a little bolder than his normal 2-3 picks, I don't see anything higher than 5-6 picks.

According to the modern Rich Hill chart, that 4th we paid was worth a little more than the 2 spots we got. 28 is worth 209, our 4th is worth 18, and our first 5th is worth 10 - a total of 237. Dallas' 24th is EXACTLY 237. And adding a 5th is a 3 player for 1 player deal. Making it a package adds to the attractiveness.

You don't have to move the 3rd and I don't think he'll want to do that. We have 10 picks in this Draft. An extra 5th and 2 extra 6ths. Anyone who thinks we'll be drafting a player with every one of those picks is kidding themselves. According to the more modern Draft Trade Chart (https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp) - we can move our 4th and one of our extra 5ths to move up 4 picks to 24. I know Sal is talking more, but I think 4 spots is about the sweet spot for us. Maybe if we threw in a high Day 3 in 2025, we could get to 22 or 23. We'd lose a pick in the 4th. But we'd maintain our 3rd, still have a pick in the 5th, 3 picks in the 6th, and a 7th. And If we really wanted to get back in the bottom 4th, we could move our 5th and one of our 6ths to do that. And then if we wanted to get back into the 5th, we could move our 2 remaining 6's to do that. There's flexibility to do a lot and still have a fairly standard Draft of 6-7 players - while comfortably being able to move around the board a bit.

It's refreshing to see another poster focus on "checking the boxes" of what Beane would look for in an Outside WR. People fall in love with what they watch in highlight videos and ignore that Beane is a guy that focuses more on checking all the boxes and projecting fit over who looks the sexiest on film. He's looking for: Height - Minimum 6'1" - preferably in the 6'3" to 6'5" area Speed - Minimum 4.45-4.50 - preferably in the 4.3-4.4 area. Though a 4.45-4.50 adequately checks the box on a bigger WR. Mass - Minimum 190-195 lbs - preferably over 205 with some muscle mass True Outside WR - The most important trait. No less than 80% of the time on the perimeter. Looking for a guy that has no doubts that we can just stick on the island, as we only have 1 WR that we can do that with (outside of Shorter who is a question mark) and have multiple slots we want to be utilizing there. Interviews well - This is something we won't know until after we've selected our guy. They always put an extreme emphasis on guys who show a Football intelligence on what they do right, what they do wrong, display a good work ethic, display coachability, and how much passion they show for the game. It's frustrating for me to see almost everyone bang the table for Xavier Worthy. He looks like a taller Roscoe Parrish to me. He checks some boxes, but is a negative check on others. At 6'1" he only meets the minimum height for me. He does have great speed. But at 170 lbs - he's *way* too small of a build in mass and muscle. And he only took 60% of his snaps on the Outside. He's not someone I see putting on the island and staying there. Others love Ladd McConkey, but he's 5'11" and runs a 4.6 40. He screams Slot at the Pro Level. Ricky Pearsall, another player mentioned at times, he's a true Slot. I agree that Keon Coleman checks all of the boxes. Unless we move up for Thomas or Franklin, he's starting to look like a very likely pick of we were to stay pat at 28. I see the first 3 going in the first 6-8 picks and it seems unlikely to me that only 1 WR will go in the following 20 or so picks. I also feel that this year people are swayed by the guys at the top. They're comparing everyone else to them and feeling like they fall short of that. Truth is, in other years, some of these guys would go higher and be viewed way differently. At 28 - we're never going to get that Elite across the board talent. Check all the boxes you can, with no net negatives, and hope they develop into even more with good coaching and hard work.

The only way Odunze falls within striking distance of us is if he blows out his knee training or something and will miss the 2024 season. Which would put us out on him anyways.

He reportedly runs a 4.38: https://www.stadiumrant.com/post/the-best-is-yet-to-come-for-adonai-mitchell If he really runs a 4.38 at 6'4" with the things he did at Texas - that's going to be make him a very attractive prospect. Especially if he tests well elsewhere. Beane is big on tools and traits. More on that below... I think you can still get an explosive playmaker with speed without giving up size. You have to keep in mind Beane's MO when drafting in the 1st Round. He always goes for players with a combination of athletic ability and prototypical size for whatever hole he's filling. He'll take a guy who is viewed as more of a developmental project (like Allen, Edmunds, Rousseau, Elam) who has impressive physical traits and tools that he sees translating at the next level with coaching up over some sick College highlights 6 days a week and twice on Sunday's. If we're spending a 1st Round Pick on a WR - they're going to want a playmaker, but also one that has prototypical size for an Outside guy. And even more importantly, they're specifically looking for a guy who will always be on the Outside opposite Diggs. Worthy is a guy who is weighs 170 lbs., isn't short but isn't particularly tall either, and only played 60% of his snaps on the Outside last season. He may be a playmaker, but he doesn't check any other box. And Beane prefers to check them all in early round picks who will be starters. This is why I'm looking at Brian Thomas Jr, Troy Franklin, Keon Coleman, Adonai Mitchell, and Xavier Legette as more likely. They check way more boxes. Maybe he surprises me and takes Worthy. But knowing what Beane is looking for and how he generally operates, I just don't see it.

McConkey reportedly runs a 4.59 40. He may appear to play faster, but that's too slow to be a consideration. Especially with a 5'11" stature. It isn't so much a "want" to trade up, as it is a necessity if he wanted Thomas or Franklin. This was an interesting watch: In it, Joe Buscaglia said "if Brandon Beane is breathing, he's thinking about trading up" 😂 Also, to your point of Beane deciding to stay pat as opposed to other years, Sal brought up a counter point. One in which his trade up in both 2022 and 2023 were a result of him missing out on who he really wanted at CB and WR. He predicts this year, rather than staying pat and making a small move, he'll make a bigger move up the board (more like 5-10 picks instead of 2-3) to ensure he gets who he truly wants this time. Right now, the list of people I think he would consider taking would be: Brian Thomas Jr - LSU Troy Franklin - Oregon Adonai Mitchell - Texas Keon Coleman - Florida State Xavier Legette - South Carolina Though I haven't yet fully dug into everyone - I have eliminated Xavier Worthy and Ladd McConkey as fits, IMO.

McConkey to me doesn't have the adequate size or speed. He screams Slot at the next level, even though he was used less there last season than the season before. He's really small at 5'11" and is more quick than fast, timing out at about 4.6. We'll be looking at guys with height, mass, speed, and is without a doubt a true Outside WR. McConkey doesn't come remotely close to checking enough of those boxes.

The more I look at things, the more I seem to think it's very unlikely either Thomas or Franklin are sitting there at 28. It's going to require a move up for either of them. If one is on the board come pick 21 or 22, I almost expect he will strike to secure one. I don't see it as likely he just stands pat and hopes his guy falls to him. Even if he does fall in love with someone like Mitchell or Legette from that next tier, I don't see him letting someone like KC possibly hop ahead of him and steal them. Unless he loves them both and is willing to take one or the other and neither goes before 27.

Yeah, I tend to agree. The more I look at it, I feel like Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze are all coming off the board before Pick 10. The odds that only 1 other WR is taken in the next 20 picks or so seems like a Pipe Dream. I do think Beane does move up this year a little higher than usual. But even then, I see it being more like 5-8 picks instead of the normal 2-3. Will it be enough to land the 5th WR on the board? Here's hoping. Ah, okay. Yeah, a guy with only 1 year of production and being a bit older of a prospect would turn people off. I agree, I still like what I saw. I don't know, I'm out on Worthy. I really think we need a big body amongst our core and he just doesn't fit the bill to me. He's at my minimum for height and way below what I'm looking for in a frame. And his college usage doesn't fit the bill for me either. To me, it would easily be Mitchell if it's a Texas WR. 3" taller and 20+ pounds more in mass. Nabers isn't happening. While I expect a Trade Up, we won't give up what it would cost to get that high. And the likelihood that someone would want to drop 20+ picks is slim to none even if we were inclined to give that much up. A move up for Thomas represents the absolute most that we would do. And if the first 3 are gone by Pick 8, like I expect, and Thomas is the next WR to come off the board - even that seems unlikely to me. Save for an unexpected fall and/or someone like Franklin hopping him. WR5 is where we're realistically looking.

It seems Franklin is the obvious choice. I worry though that if he tests well, as I expect he will, that he'll climb. Especially if the top 3 come off the board within the first 7 or 8 picks. We've already seen a bit of a climb as analysts have really dug into his work and his traits. Every year, a WR with good traits ends up going higher than expected after testing well. For example, last season, Zay Flowers was looked at as a bit of a reach for us where we were. And he ended up being out of reach for us even in a trade up. Here's hoping he stays within striking range. I like what I've seen watching clips of Legette. Really looks like he checks all of the boxes. Height, mass, speed, big play ability. But it seems like a lot of people around here are down on him. Why is that? Worthy looks explosive. But he also seems really small. He also appears to be more of a tweener than a true Outside guy, having played 40% of snaps out of the Slot last season. I don't think he fits the bill as a sure thing fit to stick almost exclusively playing on the end. Maybe he can do it, but I see us looking more at guys with big frames that we're absolutely sure can do that rather than a projection.

It seems everyone is in agreeance on Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, and Thomas as the Top 4 guys. After that, everyone seems to have differing opinions on the next group of guys and that it's a cluster of similarly ranked prospects. On one hand, that says to me if Thomas isn't available (which is probably likely save for a fall and at least a small trade up) - we could probably wait until the Mid-2nd and land a guy who's about the same value as who we would take at 28. On the other, I think it's going to come down to the type of WR we're looking for. With Shakir and Kincaid in the slot already and especially if they opt to keep Harty on a paycut instead of cutting him - anyone who is looked at as primarily a Slot guy is out for us. Similarly, anyone under 6'1", who runs slower than a 4.45 40 is probably also out. I haven't gone through the list of guys who fit that bill in that 2nd/3rd tier yet. But if there's only 1 or 2 that check all those boxes, we can't really afford to wait.

Getting Thomas at 28, filling holes at DT, DE, and S with good young players who can start now or next year, and then coming back to WR and still landing a good one in Baker. Probably the best Mock I've seen on here.

You keep wanting to make Diggs being moved this year an actual thing. It's not. In any way, shape, or form. The earliest Diggs will be moved is next offseason. He doesn't want to be moved, we don't want to move him, his contract makes it a detriment for us to move him this year instead of next year - both from a cap and compensation perspective, and we already will have a massive turnover at the position. We're not going to create a hole at WR1 on top of WR2. I know you're obsessed with multiple guys at the top of this years class. But even the best guys are not sure things to be good WR's in the NFL, especially right after the bat, let alone be the type of guy Diggs has been and can continue to be. Diggs and Shakir are guarantees. Shorter is also WAY more likely to be here than be cut without being given an opportunity to develop as planned. And there's also probably a 50/50 chance that Beane opts to keep Harty on a reduced pay scale rather than cut him. I know you're obsessed with 1st and 2nd Round WR talents. And we're going to get 1. I don't understand that not being enough for you and seemingly being only happy if we get can get not 1, but 2 of them.

RB - Re-sign Ty Johnson and Draft a Heavy in Rounds 5-7 WR - Draft 1 in Round 1, Draft another in Round 4 or 5, save a little money and wait for musical chairs to end late in FA (like Leonard Floyd) S - Re-sign Taylor Rapp and Cam Lewis. Draft someone in Round 3-5 DT - Re-sign Daquan Jones and/or Draft a guy in Round 2-3, another 5-7.

I'm sorry, I don't know how you expect one to read you answering 'easily' to "can Tre get back to his best form?" as you saying "Tre's best form is 80-85% of him at his best". You're looking at things in a vacuum though. It's not just as simple as "if we can get Tre back, he's the best CB on this team". There's a lot more at play then just that. First of all, that's a way bigger "if" than you're giving the situation credit for. Secondly, we've already brought in another starting CB and paid a premium price for them while Tre's been gone. And we have to make a decision on that CB now, or else pay him his full 9m for one year and risk losing him next year. On the other side of that, we have a young, greatly developing starting CB. He's getting better and better and also played at a high level last season. He's both the present and future at the CB position. You don't want to stunt that growth. Douglas and Benford will be our Starters Week 1. We aren't even going to have the chance to see if White can be "his best form" for some time. Doubtful that when he does, he's going to immediately be that "best form" on top of it. I also think 80-85% of White is not "easily" better than Douglas. I'm sorry, I really don't. I really think you need to re-check Douglas' stats and game videos. I feel like you're making him worse in your own head than he is to bolster your argument for Tre staying. I just don't see any logical way of looking at continuing to pay Tre in the situations we're in. Unless there's a way to keep him, save more money on the cap this year, and also be able to get out from under it after this season - without paying extra money. If we have to pay him exponentially more going forward to keep him, you've got to stop the bleeding on that contract when we're already in good shape without him. I don't think @GunnerBill would have Benford moved to Safety. That's an insane idea. You don't move good, young CB's in their prime to Safety. Elam makes less sense there than he does at CB because playing there requires even more of an understanding of Zone schemes than he's already failing at in the position he's currently in.

You easily see him being the same guy he was 3 years ago? Based on 1 or 2 games before he tore his Achilles? That's wild to me. I think it's possible Tre can come back and play at a level close to that. But I see his ceiling being what Douglas already brings us. And not in the immediate future either (and again, I really think you're underestimated how good Douglas was). I don't see him going through both of those injuries, playing a total of 10 football games in 3 calendar years, and then being the exact same All Pro he was in 2020. On a side note - It's even more wild to me that you acknowledge that it took until his last couple games last season to return to around the same form he was before the injury, that even with the Achilles and another lost year, you think he won't lose even a STEP - but the idea that Von Miller, given the same second year to get better after his injury that Tre needed, is impossible to come anywhere close to the same guy he was in 2022 pre-injury. But I digress... If we hadn't had traded for Douglas. If Benford wasn't developing into the stud he is. If Douglas was under a cheap deal with multiple years on it. If we didn't have holes all over the place. If we were in good shape with the cap. If all of those were true, I'd be willing to say "let's wait and see and hope for the best". But none of them are true. It's not that it's literally impossible to keep him. We could keep him. But in the situations we're in, the situation with long term decisions needing to be made at CB with Douglas' contract, and the uncertainty that White's health provides v. the certainty of Douglas' - I just don't know how you can go "let's pay them both and keep them both". I really see it long term as one or the other. And right now, we can't afford to invest long term into a question mark.

I disagree on your assessment of Rasul Douglas. I don't think he isn't "close" to prime Tre. And we haven't seen Prime Tre in a little under 2 and a half calendar years at this point. Since then he's torn an ACL. He never showed any sort of consistency of being that same guy. People want to say he was great in the Miami game. And he was. But the entire Defense was cooking on all cylinders that day. It was probably our best Pass Rush day. Which makes coverage easier. Then he tore an Achilles. And outside of that game? He wasn't at the level Douglas was for us last year, certainly not at the consistency. In the meantime, we traded a 3rd for Douglas. As much as you want to downplay how good he looked, he was great before he got injured in Miami. And he's surely going to get an extension this offseason. And it will be as a Starter. We're not going to throw away a 3rd Round Pick or keep him twisting in the wind on a 9m cap hit this season on the mere hopes that Tre becomes the guy he was 2 and a half years ago before an ACL tear and an Achilles tear. Nor are we going to take the level of play Christian Benford has been playing at, as he's been developing into a better and better corner and then just bench him either. If there's a way to save more money this year and also be able to just as easily get out from Tre's deal next season if he doesn't return to form - that's fine. But if it's paying him exponentially more money than we would if we released him this year, it just has to be done. The bus is filled at CB right now and it's left the station. We're not in a position financially to throw money on hopes. Especially with how stacked we are there and how bad of a shape we are elsewhere. I really think you're kidding yourself if you think Beane went out and spent a 3rd on Douglas for just 1 season. And that we plan on paying and keeping both Douglas and White for the foreseeable future.

So the thing with that is - can it be structured in such a way that it can be just as easily gotten out of next season? Joe calls it a "non guaranteed extension". Meaning what exactly? That we're able to come up with some savings this year with the ability to cut him next season if it doesn't work without more of a penalty? If there's a way we can save more by keeping him this season with the ability to still let him go without more of a penalty next season if he doesn't return to form - I'd listen to that. It just worries me that the experts say our out is this offseason. And considering we are set at our starting positions, are going to extend Douglas, and the cost of what Tre's set to make is WAAAYYYY more than you want to pay for a 3rd Outside CB (let alone one coming off a 2nd major injury) - it seems obvious to me we can't have anything close to Tre's numbers on our books. As for what's beyond Douglas and Benford on the Outside, I expect Dane to be back. They like him a lot and I don't see anyone beating down the door to steal him away. And Kaiir has shown flashes and was injured last year. When he stepped in against Pittsburgh in the Playoffs, he had a bad penalty but then had a huge pick and played well the rest of the game. When it comes to Backup CB's - Dane and Kaiir are about as good as you can ask for. Teams don't carry 3 starting Calibur CB's. Some teams don't even have 2. And with the way the roster is at other positions, it seems silly to be so loaded at one spot when there's spots on this team where we have holes at starter and at depth behind that.

The thing that makes me laugh is that you constantly hear things like: "We allocate too much to Defense" "We need to cut players on Defense and focus on Offense" "(x player) is going to be toast following (x injury) - we need to cut bait" "Cut whoever can get us cap space" But then we have a situation like Tre - coming off two serious injuries, has an out in their contract, at a position where we have more players than we even need and it's like: "Whoa! Not him though!"

First thing I see when I Google him: https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/lions-safety-still-confident-cocky

I like that you waited until Round 4 before doubling down. PFN's ranking of Franklin is way off though. Every other simulator and mock has it 50/50 he's even on the board at 28. If he's on the board at 56 in reality, something catastrophic has happened in the Pre-Draft process. I'd love Franklin and Sweat Round 1 and Round 2 though. It's ideal. I'm down on the idea of Drafting 3 WR's though. That would make 4 of our 6 WR's having a combined zero reps of Regular Season experience. It could go great, or it could go terribly. I think there's little to no chance they don't bring in a mid tier vet in FA, whether anyone likes that idea or not. 2/3 of our WR's being Rookies (or essentially a Rookie in Shorter's case) seems too risky for how carefully this regime operates, IMO.

Calling a 29 year old CB, who never fully returned to form in any consistent manner following a torn ACL and then tore his Achilles, "in his prime"... is a bit of a stretch. We haven't seen "in his prime" Tre White since November of 2021. If he were in his prime, we wouldn't trade him and we wouldn't have given up a Day 2 pick for Rasul Douglas. Now we won't trade him because no one in their right mind would take on the contract he's under in the shape he's in, in the first place - let alone give up Draft compensation to do it.

I keep seeing "pay cut" or restructure for Tre White. Do you have any idea the kind of pay cut he would have to take for keeping him to make sense? It would be an insulting amount. We're talking about a guy that if he were on the market now would have to take an incentive laden prove it deal. He never returned to consistent form from his ACL and then tore an Achilles. His role would be a guy coming off the bench and mixing in, hoping he can get back up to speed. He's on a 16.44m cap hit this season and a 16.67m cap hit next season for that role. And unlike some other players that we can't get out from under right now, Tre White's out in that massive contract is THIS offseason. When we gave up a 3rd for Douglas, it was pretty clear to me then that he wasn't only the Tre White replacement for just last year. In Douglas, Benford, Johnson, and Elam - we have our 3 starters and a 1st Round Pick coming off the bench in relief. Douglas and Johnson will be extended and Benford has been getting better and better. He's the present and the future of the CB position and you don't want to mess with that development. I just don't see a restructure or pay cut that makes sense for both sides. Save for White being okay with going from one of the top paid CB's in Football to being paid reserve money. We're not going to extend Douglas to put him on the bench and we're not going to stunt Benford's development by sticking him on the bench either. And we don't want that much money tied up into the CB position, especially for the role he'd have and being at best, a MASSIVE question mark. In the position we're in, we have to come up with cap space anywhere we can. There's only a handful of players who have outs in their deals this offseason. Tre is the easiest decision amongst them, if you remove emotion from the equation. We're set at CB without him. His replacement is already in house. The only reason to not move on is it would be sad to and fans are in their feels about it. And that's simply not a valid reason when it comes to Business.