BillsFanForever19

First player to say he's met with the Bills and it's a 1st Round DT

He's a True Slot WR. Even Steve Smith who was raving about him said "you don't take him from what he was doing in College and expect to stick him Outside". So with that said, what sense does it make to take a player that would be removing Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid from the field when we're specifically looking for a guy to replace Gabe Davis on the boundary? Malachi Corley doesn't do that. Draft him and you still have the hole on the Outside we're specifically Drafting a WR to fill.

You can read a million different things into anything someone says. And many posters on the board always read more into what's said than what they're actually simply saying. Personally, I take that as face value. A humble guy being humble. He realizes his age and his cost. And that they approach him on a yearly basis to play with his contract. He's a guy who doesn't take things for granted. So when he was asked if he'll be back, he simply said that he'd love to if they'll have him. Players often say a version of "that's not up to me" when asked that question. It's the truth. Yet people love to take it as "he must know his job isn't safe" or in Diggs' case "oh, he doesn't want to be here". It's a really standard answer that simply means what it means. He said he wants to be here. Beane says the OL is in the best shape it's been since he got here and raves about it. And any OL coach will tell you, continuity is one of the most important things in a successful OL. Change one piece and you change the flow of how the unit plays off itself in terms of compatibility and comfort. We don't know what Beane will do with anything until they do it. But listening to Beane rave about the OL, knowing that continuity is extremely important to that, Morse was not a liability last season, that he wants to be here, and has always been amenable to do things with his contract to help - I see it as incredibly unlikely he's outright cut. It would take him or his agent saying "I will not do anything to my contract, you pay me or cut me" for that to be considered IMO. And given where he is in his career and what he'd be looking at if he were to be cut, I don't see any way that happens.

I'm saying they can't in terms of where we're at and what we need to do. Can they physically do it? Sure. They could spend all their money on One guy and put 4th through 7th Round guys to Undrafted guys on the field to start. But that's not something an NFL GM is going to do. Especially one as judicious as Brandon Beane. Playing the "can't" as a strictly possible v. impossible is a really moot point. It's black and white while ignoring the many, MANY shades of grey that go into decisions. When I say they "can't" - I'm taking everything into account. Where we're at financially and roster wise, what the move would entail in ramifications across the board, what he says, and how he performs as a GM.

No, they can't. Or at the very least, they won't. If you want to look at some mid tier guys or guys who will be a little expensive, sure. But the guys I mentioned - even if we did pay them less in Year 1 and went more in on bonuses - you're still looking at a Year 1 hit that is more than we can afford. Maybe 10 mil instead of the 25m annually that a Mike Evans is expected to yield. If you're getting your hopes up for a Mike Evans, Chris Jones, Brian Burns type - you're in for a let down. He's already said that we "won't be shopping at Tiffany's" and that it's going to be "the same sort of stores we went to last year". As I said, we can get some guys and we will. But the Day 1, Big Splash, Bidding War types? They aren't happening. They're pipe dreams. The cap can be finessed and it will be. But we still have FAR too many bodies to fill to yield a complete roster to go crazy on one player at any one position.

Yeah, I don't see Morse being cut. I'm sure they'll approach him to do something to get his number down and I'm sure he'll be open to it, just like he was last season. But Beane on multiple occasions with different interviews mentioned that he was thrilled with the OL last season and that he felt it was the best he's had there since he's been here. I don't think he wants to mess with that continuity in any way this season. Maybe he Drafts a guy in the mid rounds with an eye towards next year. But with the way he talked, I'd be very surprised if he changed the Starting 5 at all. One thing that people don't take into account when discussing Douglas' age is the fact that he was a very late bloomer. He didn't become the Douglas he is today until the past couple seasons. And he spent a good number of years before then as a Reserve or Practice Squad guy, not getting much or any usage there. Thus negating wear and tear. There's always the concern that as he really gets up there in age that he'll have a more natural loss of step. But he's not the standard 30 year old player.

They don't have cap for "whatever". Yes, we'll get under some. And yes we'll got some stuff done to fill some holes with some decent guys. But the Mike Evans, Chris Jones, Brian Burns - Top of the List, Day 1, Bidding War guys? Can't make any of that happen.

"He's not a boundary WR"... then why even bother talking about him for us in the early Rounds?

Okay, so I did get a chance to sit down and watch Beane's presser. And just as I expected and mentioned - it was a matter of Sal Capaccio specifically asking Beane about "explosive players". Just like he specifically asked McDermott. He's the one who's really pushing the narrative, Beane and McDermott are just answering the question - not so much banging the table there themselves. To that end, the conversation went as such: So that's what he said when he was specifically asked about "explosive players". Later in a conversation with Mike Catalana, he was asked what he looks for in a WR and his answer was different: So long story short, reading quotes in tweets from Beane or McDermott don't take into account whether they themselves brought these things up impromptu, or they were brought up specifically by others and they're replying to them. With the "explosive" thing you keep hanging your hat on, that's one guy constantly asking them and they're replying to it. When asked what he really looks for, it wasn't even mentioned. That's not to say it isn't important - but it's not the be all end all you're reading into it to be. There's much more he's looking for than just speed and Sal's favorite buzz word, explosiveness. I don't think he's just looking for speed or that he's just looking for size - I think he's looking for both in a guy that has great hands and a great feel for the position.

If being 23 is old as dirt, I don't want to know what that makes me 😆 He spent 5 years in College, so he's 1 year older than your average Senior coming out. I don't know. It makes him 1 year older and he'll be 28 when his Rookie deal is up instead of 26 or 27. But I don't see it having a massive barring on whether or not he can be a success in the NFL just because he's 23 instead of 21 or 22.

In a situation where we went DL in Round 1, I would hope that Beane would move up from 60 in Round 2 to make sure that he got at least one of the last true Outside guys of value. But in a scenario where we did go DL, then weren't able to move up in Round 2, and he was the last WR left of good value - i'd take him then. But that's about the only scenario. I just don't see Beane taking a guy that small (as Steve Smith put it, "he's 170 lbs leaving the Thanksgiving table") who played only 60% of his snaps Outside last season at WR2. Fast as hell and explosive. But Beane is a "check the boxes" guy, who values the prototypical, athletic, physical specimens with his early picks. And I don't see Worthy checking enough boxes.

We simply cannot afford to do that this season. The cap can be finessed. But in the situation we're in, both with where we are financially and roster wise, it can't be finessed THAT much. The stud veteran difference makers are going to be Franchised (Higgins already has been and Pittman most likely will be) and Mike Evans is going to be an all out bidding war amongst the teams with large amounts of space, costing probably over 100m with the Cap jump. Guys like Odell Beckham Jr. or Marquise Brown are much more likely, but they're probably going to be overpaid and out of our range too. We have 22 FA's that we need to re-sign or replace. FIVE starters and important rotational or depth pieces. We're 37.5m over the Cap. And the Draft is only going to yield 2 starters. So unfortunately, we can't afford to pay extravagantly for a guy like Evans and field a full roster. The best we can do is provide Diggs with help. He's not going anywhere. Beane said today he's not doing anything where he's paying large amounts of Dead Caps for anyone. His money is guaranteed so we're paying that regardless of whether he's here or not. He's going to be here. And when it comes to that help, veteran wise we're looking at guys like Curtis Samuel, Darnell Mooney, DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds, Kendrick Bourne, and Noah Brown representing the top of what we can afford in FA. Even a couple of them will probably cost more than we're willing to pay. The best we can do with what's available to us is get one of those guys and then Draft a guy in Round 1, doubling down later and hoping we find a Benford to Elam type at WR later.

This is why I'm out on Xavier Worthy too, just in the opposite way. He's an inside/outside flex guy. If he were to be available later in the mid rounds, i'd be fine with it. But we need to get a true Outside guy for WR2 early and he doesn't fit that bill to me. And he'll be long gone before we'll look to double dip in a more liberal type of WR.

Another TE and a RB?

Yikes - what a difference a year and a few months make around here.

Whether people like it or not, Hines will be in Training Camp on a reduced number and given every opportunity to earn a roster spot as a Reserve Back and Return Man. Outside of that, I'm looking at the best vet minimum will get us at RB and then a 6th or 7th Round Back. If we can get a better RB than Johnson at the same price, I'm open to it. But if it's a penny more, I'm bringing back Johnson.

Everyone agrees that Harrison Jr., Nabers, and Odunze are the top 3 guys. Pretty much everyone agrees Thomas Jr. is the 4th. But after that, literally everyone has a different opinion of the next guy. One guy will say it's Franklin. The next guy won't even Franklin have in the Top 10 WR's off the board. One guy will say Xavier Legette and the next guy will say he's a Day 3 guy. Someone will say it's Adonai Mitchell and then I'll look at another list and not find his name on Page 1. It's an absolute logjam mess after the first 4. Which goes to show the depth of talent in this years class. I don't think we'll have a clearer picture of the rankings until after the Combine and Pro Day's and when people start hearing whispers from league circles. Right now, I'm just looking at the prototypes when it comes to an Outside WR (as Beane always looks for specimen athletes), eliminating players I don't think are a fit for what we're looking for, and letting my eyes judge what I see. As it gets closer, I'll pay more attention to what the prognosticators are prognosticating.

He's going to get extended or Franchised. In the SLIM scenario he doesn't, he's estimated on a 4 year - 90m dollar deal, 22.7m per annually by Spotrac. And with Higgins being Franchised and the rise in Salary Cap, I can easily see it being more than that. There's no way to structure that, even with a smaller hit in Year 1, to make it work in the situation we're in.

Pearsall is a True Slot. So are you taking Shakir or Kincaid off the field to put him on? 3rd Slot isn't what I'm looking for in a Round 4 Double Dip. At most it would be a Tweener type that does a little of both. Not a guy who works exclusively there.

Both of these would be kind of surprising to me, at this stage. In listening to Beane on OneBillsLive, it sounded to me that he was saying Jones wanted to see his market before re-signing. Though it is possible that his agent tested the waters over the past 24 hours at the Combine. As for Edwards, in the position we're in cap wise and with McGovern and Torrence definitely starting, and Ryan Bates and Alec Anderson behind them - Edwards is a bit of a luxury to me. And with the Guard position being what it is in the NFL, he might be able to find a Starting gig. Also surprising to me that we'd be taking on the cap hits for both of them before we've dug ourselves out of the hole we're in. But I guess we'll see. EDIT: You're still following and giving credence to ErieCountyBulls after all their "sources" got wrong last year? Good Lord man. I see they changed their name so that they can try and dupe people all over again into believing they're legit.

The philosophical difference between you and me is that your posts are based solely on what you'd like and what you would do (even if it's downright impossible). My posts are based more on what I think Beane would do, based on his words and track record of addressing needs via the Draft and Free Agency and how he manages the cap. In 2022, we were in a similar position at CB that we are at WR. And we were in a better position cap wise and roster wise than we are this year. He took Elam in Round 1 and for the double dip, he waited until Round 6 with Benford. On the flip side in your favor, he did take Greg Rousseau in Round 1 and then took Boogie Basham in Round 2 in 2021. But the difference between that season, what we did in 2022, and this season is that we had decent cap space and spent a lot of money that year filling all of our other holes to a point where we could afford to do that. I'm not a guy who thinks we should go DL in Round 1 like many others. But I also simply don't see a scenario where he spends 28 and 60 on one single position this season. Especially in a scenario where he's giving up picks in Rounds 3 or 4 to trade up to address that position already. See, I knew you were going to do this. Hear that and ignore everything else. I'll have to wait and see the full Presser for the whole context and quote. But much like McDermott, I'd imagine he's replying to a specific question about it from Sal and not just going off about it himself. I'm POSITIVE if he was asked what he's looking for in a WR and not just "are you looking for explosiveness" - you wouldn't hear him say "just explosiveness - that's it. I don't care about anything else". Beane ALWAYS takes guys who are athletic specimens and checks not just one box he's looking for, but as close to all of them as he can. He'll even take guys who are considered more developmental projects (like Edmunds, Elam, Rousseau) that have great size and/or measurements and he sees fitting what he looks for in the position before taking guys who have better college tape. You don't have to hear him say what he's looking for to replace Gabe Davis to know what he's looking for. Yes, he is looking for speed and explosiveness. But if they don't have the adequate measurements or don't have the adequate usage and application in College to fit the role - it doesn't matter. And Worthy, as fun as he looks (btw how much of the highlight reel that you're drooling over with him is Special Teams?) - does not check enough other boxes to fit WR2, possible future #1. He's a gadget type playmaker that doesn't have close to full time Outside usage. That's what we're looking for exclusively. Not a guy that we'd have to remove Shakir or Kincaid from the field close to half of the time. If Worthy had more usage on the outside and had better size, it wouldn't be a question. He'd be up there with Thomas Jr. There's a reason he's looked at as a mid to late 2nd Round guy. And those reasons disqualify him in my eyes as a potential WR2 for a Brandon Beane led office.

If we were to get another true Outside WR that we could trust, maybe he'd be more of a consideration for me. But that's the crux of the issue. I don't see Beane taking a WR in Round 1 or Round 2 that we have to get creative with. And I don't see us double dipping in Round 1 AND Round 2. Too many holes to fill on the roster and not enough money to do it with. And if we have to trade up for Thomas (which is likely) we're DEFINITELY not going back to back in Round 1 and Round 2. We're not waiting until Round 4 to address every other position but WR. Beane's looking for a sure fire, stick on the boundary pretty much exclusively and call it a day type. We're looking for a guy to replace Gabe Davis. Not a guy that we have to remove Kincaid or Shakir from the field to get him out there close to half of the time. If Worthy were available in late Round 3 or 4 and we were able to snag a guy like Thomas, Franklin, Legette, or Coleman to cover WR2 without trading up - sure. Pull the trigger. But that won't be an option. You can get a guy like Thomas, Franklin, or Legette that can give you speed and explosiveness without being a projection as a full time Island guy or giving up height and/or physical build. Hell, Franklin takes some flack for being too small for the Outside. And even he has 20+ pounds on Worthy, 2 inches in height, much more outside usage, and only gives up .05 on the 40.

Only 60% Outside last season. He's not a TRUE Slot like Corley, but he's not a true Outside guy either - which is what we're in the market for. He's someone who you need to put all over the place between Slot, Outside, and Return. Not a guy that you stick on the Outside and call it a day, which is what we're looking for - with a hole there and Slot covered by Shakir and Kincaid (one would have to come off the field for Worthy there) and Return covered by Harty and/or Hines (at least one will be here) Combine that with the fact that, as Steve Smith put it, "he's 170 lbs after eating Thanksgiving dinner" and has adequate, but not great height - he just doesn't check nearly enough of the "boxes" for Davis' replacement. And Beane is a boxes guy. Yes, he wants explosiveness. But as I was saying, don't take that as him saying it's the ONLY thing that matters. We can get speed and explosiveness in guys who are taller and/or more physically built and more importantly than that - true Outside WR's and not a swiss army knife, Jack of all trades - master of none type.

If we go DL Round 1, which would be a surprise to me, I don't think we'll sit pat at 60. We'd trade up for a guy who's left on the board after Round 1. Outside of the first 3 guys who DEF won't be available to us, I have it as Thomas Jr., Legette (I'm higher on him than most), Franklin, Coleman, and Mitchell in that order. I expect 2-3 of those 5 guys to come off the board by the end of Round 1, Thomas Jr. definitely. It gets a little muddy after that. Hopefully some guys that I don't think fit us like McConkey, Worthy, and Corley also go before some of the other guys on the list. So, yeah, if we did go DL Round 1, which again I don't see happening (we can get quality DL help much easier in FA than we can get at WR) - we'd be playing the "who's left?" game and trading up from 60 to grab them.