BillsFanForever19

Getting Thomas at 28, filling holes at DT, DE, and S with good young players who can start now or next year, and then coming back to WR and still landing a good one in Baker. Probably the best Mock I've seen on here.

You keep wanting to make Diggs being moved this year an actual thing. It's not. In any way, shape, or form. The earliest Diggs will be moved is next offseason. He doesn't want to be moved, we don't want to move him, his contract makes it a detriment for us to move him this year instead of next year - both from a cap and compensation perspective, and we already will have a massive turnover at the position. We're not going to create a hole at WR1 on top of WR2. I know you're obsessed with multiple guys at the top of this years class. But even the best guys are not sure things to be good WR's in the NFL, especially right after the bat, let alone be the type of guy Diggs has been and can continue to be. Diggs and Shakir are guarantees. Shorter is also WAY more likely to be here than be cut without being given an opportunity to develop as planned. And there's also probably a 50/50 chance that Beane opts to keep Harty on a reduced pay scale rather than cut him. I know you're obsessed with 1st and 2nd Round WR talents. And we're going to get 1. I don't understand that not being enough for you and seemingly being only happy if we get can get not 1, but 2 of them.

RB - Re-sign Ty Johnson and Draft a Heavy in Rounds 5-7 WR - Draft 1 in Round 1, Draft another in Round 4 or 5, save a little money and wait for musical chairs to end late in FA (like Leonard Floyd) S - Re-sign Taylor Rapp and Cam Lewis. Draft someone in Round 3-5 DT - Re-sign Daquan Jones and/or Draft a guy in Round 2-3, another 5-7.

I'm sorry, I don't know how you expect one to read you answering 'easily' to "can Tre get back to his best form?" as you saying "Tre's best form is 80-85% of him at his best". You're looking at things in a vacuum though. It's not just as simple as "if we can get Tre back, he's the best CB on this team". There's a lot more at play then just that. First of all, that's a way bigger "if" than you're giving the situation credit for. Secondly, we've already brought in another starting CB and paid a premium price for them while Tre's been gone. And we have to make a decision on that CB now, or else pay him his full 9m for one year and risk losing him next year. On the other side of that, we have a young, greatly developing starting CB. He's getting better and better and also played at a high level last season. He's both the present and future at the CB position. You don't want to stunt that growth. Douglas and Benford will be our Starters Week 1. We aren't even going to have the chance to see if White can be "his best form" for some time. Doubtful that when he does, he's going to immediately be that "best form" on top of it. I also think 80-85% of White is not "easily" better than Douglas. I'm sorry, I really don't. I really think you need to re-check Douglas' stats and game videos. I feel like you're making him worse in your own head than he is to bolster your argument for Tre staying. I just don't see any logical way of looking at continuing to pay Tre in the situations we're in. Unless there's a way to keep him, save more money on the cap this year, and also be able to get out from under it after this season - without paying extra money. If we have to pay him exponentially more going forward to keep him, you've got to stop the bleeding on that contract when we're already in good shape without him. I don't think @GunnerBill would have Benford moved to Safety. That's an insane idea. You don't move good, young CB's in their prime to Safety. Elam makes less sense there than he does at CB because playing there requires even more of an understanding of Zone schemes than he's already failing at in the position he's currently in.

You easily see him being the same guy he was 3 years ago? Based on 1 or 2 games before he tore his Achilles? That's wild to me. I think it's possible Tre can come back and play at a level close to that. But I see his ceiling being what Douglas already brings us. And not in the immediate future either (and again, I really think you're underestimated how good Douglas was). I don't see him going through both of those injuries, playing a total of 10 football games in 3 calendar years, and then being the exact same All Pro he was in 2020. On a side note - It's even more wild to me that you acknowledge that it took until his last couple games last season to return to around the same form he was before the injury, that even with the Achilles and another lost year, you think he won't lose even a STEP - but the idea that Von Miller, given the same second year to get better after his injury that Tre needed, is impossible to come anywhere close to the same guy he was in 2022 pre-injury. But I digress... If we hadn't had traded for Douglas. If Benford wasn't developing into the stud he is. If Douglas was under a cheap deal with multiple years on it. If we didn't have holes all over the place. If we were in good shape with the cap. If all of those were true, I'd be willing to say "let's wait and see and hope for the best". But none of them are true. It's not that it's literally impossible to keep him. We could keep him. But in the situations we're in, the situation with long term decisions needing to be made at CB with Douglas' contract, and the uncertainty that White's health provides v. the certainty of Douglas' - I just don't know how you can go "let's pay them both and keep them both". I really see it long term as one or the other. And right now, we can't afford to invest long term into a question mark.

I disagree on your assessment of Rasul Douglas. I don't think he isn't "close" to prime Tre. And we haven't seen Prime Tre in a little under 2 and a half calendar years at this point. Since then he's torn an ACL. He never showed any sort of consistency of being that same guy. People want to say he was great in the Miami game. And he was. But the entire Defense was cooking on all cylinders that day. It was probably our best Pass Rush day. Which makes coverage easier. Then he tore an Achilles. And outside of that game? He wasn't at the level Douglas was for us last year, certainly not at the consistency. In the meantime, we traded a 3rd for Douglas. As much as you want to downplay how good he looked, he was great before he got injured in Miami. And he's surely going to get an extension this offseason. And it will be as a Starter. We're not going to throw away a 3rd Round Pick or keep him twisting in the wind on a 9m cap hit this season on the mere hopes that Tre becomes the guy he was 2 and a half years ago before an ACL tear and an Achilles tear. Nor are we going to take the level of play Christian Benford has been playing at, as he's been developing into a better and better corner and then just bench him either. If there's a way to save more money this year and also be able to just as easily get out from Tre's deal next season if he doesn't return to form - that's fine. But if it's paying him exponentially more money than we would if we released him this year, it just has to be done. The bus is filled at CB right now and it's left the station. We're not in a position financially to throw money on hopes. Especially with how stacked we are there and how bad of a shape we are elsewhere. I really think you're kidding yourself if you think Beane went out and spent a 3rd on Douglas for just 1 season. And that we plan on paying and keeping both Douglas and White for the foreseeable future.

So the thing with that is - can it be structured in such a way that it can be just as easily gotten out of next season? Joe calls it a "non guaranteed extension". Meaning what exactly? That we're able to come up with some savings this year with the ability to cut him next season if it doesn't work without more of a penalty? If there's a way we can save more by keeping him this season with the ability to still let him go without more of a penalty next season if he doesn't return to form - I'd listen to that. It just worries me that the experts say our out is this offseason. And considering we are set at our starting positions, are going to extend Douglas, and the cost of what Tre's set to make is WAAAYYYY more than you want to pay for a 3rd Outside CB (let alone one coming off a 2nd major injury) - it seems obvious to me we can't have anything close to Tre's numbers on our books. As for what's beyond Douglas and Benford on the Outside, I expect Dane to be back. They like him a lot and I don't see anyone beating down the door to steal him away. And Kaiir has shown flashes and was injured last year. When he stepped in against Pittsburgh in the Playoffs, he had a bad penalty but then had a huge pick and played well the rest of the game. When it comes to Backup CB's - Dane and Kaiir are about as good as you can ask for. Teams don't carry 3 starting Calibur CB's. Some teams don't even have 2. And with the way the roster is at other positions, it seems silly to be so loaded at one spot when there's spots on this team where we have holes at starter and at depth behind that.

The thing that makes me laugh is that you constantly hear things like: "We allocate too much to Defense" "We need to cut players on Defense and focus on Offense" "(x player) is going to be toast following (x injury) - we need to cut bait" "Cut whoever can get us cap space" But then we have a situation like Tre - coming off two serious injuries, has an out in their contract, at a position where we have more players than we even need and it's like: "Whoa! Not him though!"

First thing I see when I Google him: https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/lions-safety-still-confident-cocky

I like that you waited until Round 4 before doubling down. PFN's ranking of Franklin is way off though. Every other simulator and mock has it 50/50 he's even on the board at 28. If he's on the board at 56 in reality, something catastrophic has happened in the Pre-Draft process. I'd love Franklin and Sweat Round 1 and Round 2 though. It's ideal. I'm down on the idea of Drafting 3 WR's though. That would make 4 of our 6 WR's having a combined zero reps of Regular Season experience. It could go great, or it could go terribly. I think there's little to no chance they don't bring in a mid tier vet in FA, whether anyone likes that idea or not. 2/3 of our WR's being Rookies (or essentially a Rookie in Shorter's case) seems too risky for how carefully this regime operates, IMO.

Calling a 29 year old CB, who never fully returned to form in any consistent manner following a torn ACL and then tore his Achilles, "in his prime"... is a bit of a stretch. We haven't seen "in his prime" Tre White since November of 2021. If he were in his prime, we wouldn't trade him and we wouldn't have given up a Day 2 pick for Rasul Douglas. Now we won't trade him because no one in their right mind would take on the contract he's under in the shape he's in, in the first place - let alone give up Draft compensation to do it.

I keep seeing "pay cut" or restructure for Tre White. Do you have any idea the kind of pay cut he would have to take for keeping him to make sense? It would be an insulting amount. We're talking about a guy that if he were on the market now would have to take an incentive laden prove it deal. He never returned to consistent form from his ACL and then tore an Achilles. His role would be a guy coming off the bench and mixing in, hoping he can get back up to speed. He's on a 16.44m cap hit this season and a 16.67m cap hit next season for that role. And unlike some other players that we can't get out from under right now, Tre White's out in that massive contract is THIS offseason. When we gave up a 3rd for Douglas, it was pretty clear to me then that he wasn't only the Tre White replacement for just last year. In Douglas, Benford, Johnson, and Elam - we have our 3 starters and a 1st Round Pick coming off the bench in relief. Douglas and Johnson will be extended and Benford has been getting better and better. He's the present and the future of the CB position and you don't want to mess with that development. I just don't see a restructure or pay cut that makes sense for both sides. Save for White being okay with going from one of the top paid CB's in Football to being paid reserve money. We're not going to extend Douglas to put him on the bench and we're not going to stunt Benford's development by sticking him on the bench either. And we don't want that much money tied up into the CB position, especially for the role he'd have and being at best, a MASSIVE question mark. In the position we're in, we have to come up with cap space anywhere we can. There's only a handful of players who have outs in their deals this offseason. Tre is the easiest decision amongst them, if you remove emotion from the equation. We're set at CB without him. His replacement is already in house. The only reason to not move on is it would be sad to and fans are in their feels about it. And that's simply not a valid reason when it comes to Business.

If you don't have a solid Starter, Rounds 2 & 3 are the way to go. You don't want to spend a lot of money on the RB position or use a 1st. We went with Singletary in Round 3 in 2019. He didn't wow us his Rookie season. So when Moss fell the following year and was good value, we figured between the two of them - we're going to be completely set. One of them was bound to develop into a stud. Unfortunately, Moss impressed even less. We gave it the years of 2020 and 2021 hoping at least one of Singletary and Moss would step up. But neither surpassed being anything but average to halfway decent. So we traded down in Round 2 of 2022 a couple times, picked up some more picks to mitigate the cost of trying again and picked up James Cook. Luckily, it seems we've finally hit on one. Now that we have, you're just looking for a change of pace back. Preferably a Bruiser. That's not a role you spend anything higher than Round 4 on. Preferably, Round 5.

I'm perplexed by the amount of Day 2 RB picks you've been making. I'm not against Drafting a RB. But I'm against spending Day 1 or Day 2 picks on a devalued position, when we have a Top 5, Pro Bowl Back in house as our Starter already. You don't spend a 2nd Round Pick on a 2nd RB.

I don't think it is. There's been enough signs on field that Elam could just be a late bloomer who's had injury issues and a slower than expected transition to McDermott's Defense. He has the skills and work ethic to possibly turn things around like Epenesa. Burks? He's done nothing to suggest that his poor Pre-Draft tests were anything but accurate. And he has a terrible drop rate on top of it. We shouldn't use a WR roster spot on a less than likely reclamation project. Let alone give up a player who would be the first off the bench at CB to do so.

Yikes! That is ugly! That's literally the opposite of Beane's M.O. in early rounds. He'd rather take a guy who looks average on film but has great test results and physical traits than a guy who looks good in College but tests terribly. He doesn't chance that until the mid to late rounds. Terrel Bernard is probably the highest example of that but even he was a late 3rd Rounder.

The thing about 1st Round QB "busts" is that they at least have traits or tools that made them a First Rounder. Blaine has stuck around the league for so long as a Backup QB because he at least brings something meaningful to the table. You aren't still playing at 34 if you provide absolutely nothing. As I said, when it comes to Backup QB's, if they're good - they'll either be starting or on a team that has a questionable QB situation. There isn't even 32 good starters in the NFL. Anyone we get to play Backup QB here isn't going to inspire anyone.

Mac Jones isn't going to be outright cut. They don't save anything by releasing him. If they don't get any offers for him, they'll keep him and he'll be a FA after this season. We're not paying 5m for 1 year on a backup QB period. Let alone giving up a pick to do so. No one's doing that unless they think it's possible they might be able to get something more out of him with a change of scenery, with the potential to start in the future. Even if he *were* to be outright cut (won't happen, but for arguments sake let's go with it) - he'd go somewhere with a questionable QB situation that would give him at least the chance to see the field. Long story short, Mac Jones isn't happening any way you slice it.

Spoiler alert: anyone we end up signing at Backup QB "sucks" If you're a decent to good QB on the market - you're either starting, going to a team as a Bridge QB or insurance to a young QB who's developing, going to a team that has a questionable starter, or going to a team with a QB who has injury issues. Having a QB that is unquestioned and *knock on wood* never comes off the field, our options are going to be... not so great.

Is it on Netflix? That would be weird. It's an ESPN documentary that airs on ESPN+ and Disney+ (being ESPN's parent company).

Damn. This really sucks. Terrible. And it will probably make cities and teams re-think doing these in the future. Would really suck to finally win one and there's no parade because of a couple psychos in KC.

For Troy Franklin fans - he's documenting his Pre-Draft process on his YouTube channel VillageBoyTroy. Here's the first four episodes:

While I agree that WR is the way to go, I don't think this assessment is correct. For example, in the 2022 Draft, Treylon Burks was drafted by Tennessee at 18. Jermaine Johnson was drafted by New York at 26 and George Karlaftis was drafted by Kansas City at 32. Both of them performed well immediately while Burks has been a disappointment. Any position can hit immediately or bust depending on the player.

Reminds me of an experience I had when I was 16. Two absolutely hammered guys were shoving each other back and forth. One of them got shoved into a woman who had a baby strapped to her chest in a carrier, right in front of me. She barely kept her balance and the baby started crying. I was mortified and said "hey, watch it dude, you almost took out that woman and her baby" before I even realized it. The guy, rather than apologizing to the woman walked up to me, grabbed me by the front of my shirt, pulled me in, and said "do you want me to put you in the f-cking ground right here and now you little sh-t?!". Again, I was 16. This dude was like 40. The lady threatened to bring a cop over and one of his more sober friends came and took him out of there before he did anything more. I'll never forget it. Haven't been back to a lot of games since and that was 25 years ago.

Von Miller will return much closer to his pre-injury form than the form we saw last season. We would have won the Super Bowl save for catastrophic injuries and leaders not returning to form from the year before. Even with McDermott. Tre'Davious White should be released. Jordan Poyer will stick for one more season. Nyheim Hines will be on the 53 Week 1. We shouldn't take a 2nd WR in the Draft until Round 4.