I agree that Beane has a philosophy of using draft trades to align BPA or at least BPA tier with need. That said, from the sounds of the scouting class it seems like the sweet spot of the draft will not be at the top end or late round depth, but rounds 2-4. These are players in a range where absolutely they will challenge hard for the 53. I would hope Beane will try to maximize value here, and not try to move up for fewer players or down for PS guys who would be poached.
The low round draft capital doesn’t move the needle on day 1 or day 2. Also there’s always a few unexpected picks and reaches at the top, at least, as long as the Raiders are still in the league. It could go a couple ways:
1) Nobody they love at 25 and trade down for day 2 capital.
2) Someone they love at 25 and draft him.
3) A few guys they love at 25 and trade down.
I don’t see the Bills using day 2 capital to move up on day 1. They ought to be looking to add younger (cheaper) contracts at any/all of CB, IOL, WR, LB, RB, S.
One scenario I actually wouldn’t hate is if there’s a position slide (QB?) and a team wants to jump from the top end of the 2nd up to 25, offering next years 1. Basically giving the 5th year option in exchange for draft value. All of that Allen draft maneuvering would not have been necessary if they had traded with Houston instead of KC - the future 1 (+#25o) that the Texans gave to move to 12 for Watson ended up being #4 overall the next year, as opposed to the future 1 from KC (+#27o). If a team that projects to be craptastic next year makes an offer of a future 1, that plays into building for continued success which Beane is always speaking to.
The Bills are finally in a position with a fairly loaded roster to maximize assets and let value come to them rather than reaching and chasing (Travares Tillman, Cyrus Kouandijo, John McCargo, Aaron Maybin, etc etc) as the traditionally competitive teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh have done. More or less, the Polian way.