Ralonzo

He already snuck back into the 3rd round, upgrading #133 to #95 through KC. Trade Down is still a good option, depending on the premium extracted.

I had suspected that with Diggs around, he was dictating where the ball had to go. The other team would triple Diggs on 3rd down and Allen would jam the ball in there anyway and he would drop it or get defended because EVERYONE knew it was going there and the Bills punt and I'm cursing at the screen about "well don't throw it THERE." It was different from when Allen wasn't yes established and/or he was making the grabs, but it just got too predictable. Being less rote as to where the defense needs to key in critical situations - I wouldn't be at all surprised if overall efficiency of the Bills offense improves for the absence of Diggs in that instance.

The premium Washington is paying for that move is approximate value of a mid-3rd. I don't think they'd touch that. The most Beane can reasonably expect as a bidding-war premium is the value of a low 4th. The goal here is to get Buffalo to where they have 4 to 5 of the top-100 picks. Washington can facilitate that if they have a target and want to pay a premium to go to 33. Something like 33 + 95 + 128 for 40 + 67 + 100. Washington pays a premium close to the value of the 128 pick by allowing Buffalo to upgrade the two lower picks, leaving Buffalo picking at: 40, 60, 67, 100. This configuration seems to align nicely to present value players for Bills roster needs in those slots.

I don't disagree. I'm not advocating to replace them with Sherfield and Shorter, haha. But I also don't think it's as dire as Bill Mafia in general seem to think. The Bills were winning without a lot of help from Davis at X and Diggs at Z, simply upgrading those roles to something near average should be a boon to the offense - similar to upgrading the guards from "disaster" to "ok" did for the OL last year. Samuel might be an average Z for the Bills which leaves X. Remember when Davis got a game ball for a 0 catch performance against iirc Dallas, for his blocking? Is that something that's supposed to be hard to replace? I'd be pleased with literally anyone who can block near as well and at least run the right route so the ball doesn't go flying to where he was supposed to be for a pick.

Nobody in Buffalo has understood how to run a screen for at least 20 years, so...

Too much will give you Type 2 Deebobetes.

If you have good players that aren't playing good, what's the point of having those good players? Like the quote from Moneyball, "If he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?" Diggs and Davis were not carrying the mail for the Bills anymore after the bye... and the Bills started winning. It's a stretch to claim it's just because they were the greatest decoys ever because everyone knows they're good players and that they drew off all the coverage. In theory, if you take "talent" out of the equation and simply replace players who aren't playing good with players who are playing good, then you're a better team for it.

Why is everyone worried about "replacing Diggs' and Davis' production"? The last half of the season Diggs and Davis weren't replacing Diggs' and Davis' production, Shakir and Kincaid were.

I would love Dejean to be a difference maker back there but #33, especially if Beane can gain a premium over the neutral value he obtained flipping 28 and 32, can go a long long way toward solving many of the Bills roster *and* cap issues. Slate 1 using 33, 60, 95) Dejean, Polk, Trice Potential Slate 2 using a trade down from 33 to mid 40's and picking up a mid 3rd) Franklin, Fiske, Bishop, Elliss With hopefully enough excess ammo stored to pop up in Round 4 for a faller at a position like CB or even doubling up on WR (though I'm fine with waiting till R5/6 for a Fluornoy or Bub Means to develop as a physical X competing with Shorter).

That huge hole accounted for 3 receptions and 21 yards against the Chiefs last January. Where oh where will Beane ever find that.

Worried sure, but there'd have to be a plan B/C/D in place. But at some point, not every team can draft every receiver every round. If you have multiple paths to complement your roster with the right receiver types - would Franklin & Baker be so much preferable to say, Coleman and McCaffrey, or hell even Tez Walker and Bub Means. Maybe yes, maybe the value isn't there, maybe the value needs to be spent elsewhere and make do with what you can get. A lot of this exercise centers around who's projected to be available in that mock. So far, Brugler has been decent in projecting value - with the main outliers being Nix and the 3 receivers selected at the end of R1, all of whom had round 2 or round 3 grades. If Beane's grades track to that, he absolutely made the right call to let other teams reach and give you their surplus value. The amount that the Bills are getting killed by the media doesn't surprise me though.

If you assume that Franklin or maybe Coleman is the guy Beane covets, and I can believe that, then here's how I'd bounce around Brugler's Day-2 Mock (Athletic, paywall) picking guys he mocks within a few spots after the Bills pick, for positions of need. Brugler: #33 Adonai Mitchell #60 Javon Bullard #95 Malik Washington Alternate: Alternately, in his mock Coleman goes #45 so a flip of #33 to Washington for #40 + #100 would get the Bills into position for that. VERSION 1 - ***TRADE*** #33 + #144 to NYG for #47 + #70, giving Buffalo the desired target of 4 Day-2 picks. >>> #47 Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon - Slight receiver with good enough speed and great underlying win-rate metrics. Other Options: Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan ; Jackson Powers-Johnson, G/C, Oregon ; Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU ; Maason Smith, DT, LSU ; Zach Frazier, G/C, West Virginia >>> #60 Javon Bullard, S, Georgia Other Options: ; Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State ; Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia Or, a small trade-up (e.g. #60 + #163 to GB for #58 + #202) for Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State - The size and hammer of a SS and the range and playmaking of a FS. >>> #70 Austin Booker, Edge, Kansas - Athletic edge is still young and would greatly benefit developing in a rotational role. Other Options: Ruke Orhorhoro, DT, Clemson ; Brandon Dorlus, DT, Oregon ; Cole Bishop, S, Utah ; Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington >>> #95 Javon Baker, WR, UCF - If drafting 2 outside WR on days 1 & 2 is the plan, Baker brings what Franklin doesn't in physicality and beating press. Other Options: Devontez Walker, WR, North Carolina ; Malik Washington, WR, Virginia ; Malik Mustapha, S, Wake Forest ; Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, S, Texas Tech ; Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami ;

Perception is noise, but noise can also be a weapon. Ask Manuel Noriega. I do think Beane gains within the GM-club by making the deal, without demanding a gouge deal. His willingness to accomodate Veach will presumably lead to his own cachet for moving up or down a little, fairly, to be looked favorably among other GMs. Part of GM'ing is political and making your trading partner look like not a fool is not insignificant. My own strategery for the Bills in this draft was to try to get 4 top-100 picks. There may be fallers or sleepers later but the most useful players in this draft seem to get scarce between 100 and 120. Bills having the chasm from pick 60 to 128, it was imperative for them to gain at least one, preferably 2, additional picks in that Goldilocks zone of players who may be capable of contributing this year. To me, Beane's doing what I would have done to try to marry value and need by using the juice of a higher pick to elevate other picks into that sweet spot - IF the player(s) you've honed in on at the top end are likely to still be available at the trade-down.

Expounding on the chart above they must have more than one guy in a tier to make a move down. If Franklin is their lone round 2 receiver, they will take him 33. Otherwise, they are doing the right thing dragging those late picks Beane has accumulated up into an are where players who can at least make the 53 are in this draft which is rounds 1 thru maybe mid-4 based on scouting, mock drafts, etc. What's happening looks like the plan that running triple digits mock drafts ultimately made plain was the best plan for the Bills. Aim for 4+ picks in the top 100, target: WR (Franklin?) Edge (Booker?) S (Hicks?) OT (Sumiataiaai?) DT (Hall? M Smith?). Use the R4 and R5 for your sleepers and fallers and devalued positions like WR and LB. Damned if it doesn't look like exactly what Beane is doing right now.

Potential trade downs from 33 with equivalent Rich Hill chart value (like the 2 previous moves) 33 + 128 to Washington for 36 + 100 33 + 204 to Carolina (lol) for 39 + 101 33 to Washington for 40 + 100 33 + 163 to Green Bay for 41 + 88 33 + 163 to Houston for 42 + 86 33 + 144 to Atlanta for 43 + 79 (didn't double check what Buffalo already traded away... tired!)

It won't go well for you unless you run the 40-yard in 4.21

Here's one other point that occurred to me reading all the "why so cheap trade-up" posts. Beane is giving action to get action. He'll abide by the consensus value charts and not totally try to **** over one of his counterparts to gain purchase in making a deal later, maybe not this year or next, but burnishing his rep as a fair dealer not looking to get the other guy fired.

I started off doing mocks with the idea of trading up for that great WR to fill the major hole, but after enough iterations, came around to the strategy of for this team, at this time, I should be looking for trade downs to get 4 to 5 guys who can augment the roster this year. Day 1 through early day 3 is pretty much the zone for that stuff in this draft. The Bills are pushing their later picks into that zone. I understand what they're doing because they're going to the "value-meets-need" zone for their roster.

Only you know and I know.

The Xaviers are regarded as having mid Day-2 grades. If Beane is right and they are reaches at the draft picks he traded out, where the Bills reap the benefits, and gets his guy anyway after being pushed down (and lower salary!) then we're not Worthy. Day 2 will tell the tale, but the talking skulls are killing Beane right now for trading out of picks used to pick players they are sure the Bills needed.

The Xaviers are regarded as having mid Day-2 grades. If Beane is right and they are reaches at the draft picks he traded out, where the Bills reap the benefits, and gets his guy anyway after being pushed down (and lower salary!) then we're not Worthy.

Trade with CAR, has to be for #39 and #101. The #95 and #101 picks are right in the sweet spot for getting those last few difference makers to fill holes and start sometime this year. This is a great mini re-tool depending on the results of Day 2.

WOW there's a riser, Pearsall to SF

The value will be lessened courtesy the trade back to 32, unless they do a similar thing to upgrade later round picks to pick up the slack. 32 = 35 + 138 from Arizona 32 = 39 + 101 from Carolina 32 = 40 + 100 from Washington