BigAl2526

It seemed to be solid though unspectacular, which is what I expect for a team in the 25 picking slot. Picking a grade would make me a hypocrite after posting what I just did in another thread.

Spurr of the moment evaluations are very much prone to be affected by the bias of the reviewer. Case in point is Walter Cherepinsky who grades each pick of the first three rounds (http://www.walterfootball.com) He downgraded Buffalo's pick a bit, mostly because they traded up when there were still multiple options left on the board at CB (Andrew Booth and Kyler Gordon along with Elam). His rationale was that if Dallas takes Elam, Buffalo still has a couple really good CBs to choose from. But listening to Brandon Beane, Elam was the last guy on the board that they had a first round grade on. We don't know how much higher the Bills think Elam's ceiling could be, but it's clear they think it is higher. Is Cherepinsky right, and the Bills wrong (along with Gunner, who thinks Booth is a top ten player overall) or are the Bills? There's no possible was to determine that right now. In a year or two we'll know a lot more.

Scientifically, it's the leg and it's not close. When it comes to launching a football. Josh Allen IMO can make the ball be airborne for a greater distance than Arraiza can punt it. As has been mentioned, Arraiza's longer punts benefited from roll after they hit the ground. While on the subject of Matt Arraiza, it's clear he's going to have some adjusting to do before he can be a successful pro punter. Yes, he has that famous "rocket leg," more power than any punter ever. However, critics say that his timing is so quick, from the instant he gets the ball to the moment it leaves his foot, that his coverage guys don't have as much time as they could to start down the field. Second, Arraiza has to some extent sacrificed altitude for distance. Of course, that too can make it tough on your coverage guys. Thirdly, Arraiza is undeveloped in the art of pinning the other team deep inside the 20. We've seen tape of him doing exactly that, but those are long punts the receiver wasn't able to get to, and the ball to a good roll, but the way he's punted, once the offence gets to the 50 yard line, and then has to punt, there is a very good chance the ball is going into the end zone for a touchback and 30 yards or less net. Lastly, because Arraiza was also the kicker for the Aztecs, he has to learn from scratch how to be a holder. I'm not saying he can't come in and learn all of that stuff, but he is going to have his hands full learning and practicing new techniques between now and the season opener.

I can almost guarantee that at least one 2023 mock has been published since the 1011 draft was completed. After an initial mini-flourish, the pace normally drops way off for a while. It picks up more in November and increases gradually for a couple months. There will be a spurt in January , and again post combine. In the last days before the draft it will be a deluge.

It will forever be known as the "Strange" pick in the future. As far as the Bills are concerned, it's tough to try and earn top notch grades when you're drafting near the bottom of the order. Conversely, if you're the Jets and you've got three first round picks, you'd better have a superlative draft, or you deserve to get fired. I think Buffalo's grades are understandable and fair, and reflect the circumstances that bond the Bills at this point in time. In any case, it's better to be in Buffalo's position than the Jets'.

Fascinating and fun to watch. What they don't show is also interesting, namely any discussion about any other cornerbacks. For whatever reason, there is stuff they are going to keep in house, and death to anyone who leaks it.

One big factor was his disaster of a combine and his 5.03 40.

Having just drafted Desmond Ridder, I think they still start Marriota and let Ridder have some time to develop. None of this year's crop of QBs really has plug and play readiness.

My wife and I are trying to be thrifty with my limited retirement income so we cut the cable. That meant I've been limited to ABC. ABC's coverage sucks a dry cow's udder. Even if ABC caries rounds 4-7 tomorrow, I'm tempted to listen to WGR radio instead. Yes, they are amateur, but at least they will talk about Buffalo's picks. I can watch NFL.com's tracker to keep track and follow all the picks.

He's a bit slow for a pure safety, and Buffalo really likes the young safeties on the team, particularly Damar Hamlin and Josh Thomas. They have decent size and are very athletic. With Poyer and Hyde anchoring the middle, Buffalo has had the luxury of taking the time to develop these guys. Jaquan Johnson is probably a bit too limited to be in the long term plans as a starter.

I didn't hate the pick to begin with, but as I hear more, I feel even more comfortable with it.

ABC didn't say a single word about either Bills pick this evening. If there was some pre-draft hype about a player, they'll talk about him. Otherwise they're too busy having guest stars banter with the host and commentators.

Good to hear from you, Spags. Comic relief is always welcome. The Jets had a great first round. They should have, with 3 first round picks, 2 of them in the top 10 of the draft, and Houston giving them an absolute gift by picking Stingley as the first CB off the board. Here's the thing. The Jets were a bad team last season. It's going to take them more than one offseason of good drafting and smart free agent signings to put together a solid franchise. We'll see if Saleh has it in him to make the Jets a serious competitor.

I'm actually shocked to hear that there was that close to a consensus among NFL teams on who the top 23 players in the draft were.

I did not see the terms of the trade, so I went through Draft Tek's running 7 round computer projection of the draft that is updated after every pick. I don't know if there are any future implications for the trade, but in the latest simulation, Buffalo has no 4th round pick. The Bills appear to have given of a 4th round pick to move up. I don't know whether or not Buffalo might get some latte round throw in pick in 2023.

Obviously, traits were important to Beane in this pick. Elam is long, fast and quick. Beane must be assuming Buffalo can coach up his deficiencies in tackling and his tendency to take some penalties due to his aggressiveness in coverage. My biggest question is why Beane thought a trade was necessary to move ahead of Dallas. Nobody I saw ever suggested Dallas was going to draft a CB. We'll probably have to wait and see if any rumors emerge to explain it. In any case, is obvious that Buffalo's preference for Elam over Kyler Gordon and Andrew Booth had to be pretty strong to drive the trade.

Hindsight is 20/20. In this case, it supports me. Jameson Williams and Garett Wison are long gone when Buffalo picks.

There's been a recent run of Breece Hall to Buffalo projections lately. I'll bet it's way over 4 by now.

Williams and Willson are almost guaranteed to be gone before Buffalo picks. They would have to drop at least into the high teens before Buffalo would consider a trade IMO. There is a very slim chance Treylon Burkes drops. He will be a good receiver in the NFL. I'm not sure how Buffalo would value a big physical receiver who has speed on film, but ran a 4.55 at the combine. It seems to me that Buffalo might be a bit concerned that they really don't have elite speed at WR outside of one guy buried on the depth chart (Stevenson). Watson is intriguing. Virtually all mock drafts have him going later than 25, from the very end of the first round to somewhere in the top half of the second round. I would absolutely consider him after a trade down.

Personally, I think the only receiver with the kind of skill set and athleticism to compel Beane to make him the pick is Jameson Williams, and I don't see him dropping. Dotson is the most likely to drop. He has the speed the Bills would covet for a Josh Allen target. He's also a good route runner with great hands. His size means he's not likely to be a full time outside receiver. I wouldn't mind Dotson, but with the limit imposed by his size, I question whether he gives Beane enough reasons to pick him. I think as an option he would be well down on the list.

An athletic tight end is one of the most realistic possibilities. Dawson Knox offers the additional advantage of having played QB.

No GM ought to be tied into a single strategy for approaching the first round. Lots of teams want to trade down this year, so there would be opportunities to trade up for sure. But the reason so many teams want to trade is the number of question marks surrounding to top players. That leads to value issues. Beane is certainly willing to trade up for the right player, but he won't do it just to do it. Last year is evidence of that. The real value in this draft is probably rounds 2 and three, and those are the picks you'd have to part with if you want to trade up.

The problem is, every QB in the draft has at least one significant flaw. There are at least 4 teams that need QBs badly, probably more, but teams may not see a particular advantage to drafting a QB in round one versus waiting a bit. It ultimately depends on how many GMs are going to be seduced by need versus being faithful to pest player available.

I think the odds of any scenario I listed are less than 50/50, even picking cornerback. That is still the most likely outcome of the draft. The thing that might make drafting Breece Hall more likely would be a run on CBs, leaving options Beane doesn't like or those that represent too much of a reach. The odds would be boosted further by a poor market for trying to trade down. As you have noted, this looks like a draft where a lot more teams are wanting to trade down than want to trade up.

That makes some sense. It may be that the contract cost will drop enough to make it worth the wait. Maybe a one year prove it deal is in the cards.