GASabresIUFan

The 1 CB/S also stands out especially because the kid is a bust. The 4 DL also stands out considering we only have two of the four on the roster.

Priority list 1. DT - we have only one signed. I see 2 additions in the draft and an FA as the starter. I expect a McGovern-level signing if Jones isn’t re-signed. I think they'll grab one DT in the 1st 3 rounds. 2. Safety. Poyer and Hamlin are signed. Need an FA possible starter and at least one higher draftee to compete in camp for the starter's job. We need someone better than Rapp. I expect S to be drafted in the top 4 rounds. 3. WR - Need a Davis upgrade and an eventual Diggs replacement maybe as early as 2025. This should be our 1st pick, even if management likes Shorter as Gabe's replacement. GB convinced me that you can’t have enough talent in the receiving room. I’m also interested in a late-round WR, but suspect we’ll see a cheap FA instead. 4. Edge - Rousseau is the man. Miller is a maybe and Jonathan an unknown. We are going to need two bodies here. I see one middle draftee and a cheap FA. Maybe we find enough money to keep Epenesa and lower the draft priority. 5 & 6 OT and Center. Brown and Dawkins are on 1-year deals, as is Morse and Bates. Get some middle-round bodies in and see if one has the goods to be a starter in 2025. It would be a dream draft if Van Pran falls to the Bills in the 3rd. That would also us to trade Bates and save $5 million in cap to use elsewhere. 7. CB Douglas and I think Taron Johnson only have one year left on their deals and who knows whether While returns. Elam is a bust so far and the CBs on special teams aren’t returning. Seems like a good time to grab one in the 5th or 6th rounds when we have 5 picks. 8. RB - Right now Cook is our only RB. Re-signing Ty Johnson should be done. If Hines’ knee doesn’t look good, I expect Beane to draft more depth here. TE and LB need one more player each. I expect both jobs to go to cheap FA.

The only real recipe is staying healthy if you have good talent. The Bills had the talent, but couldn't stay healthy - Lost Milano and White for the year, Jones for most of the year, and then lost 7 starters on defense during W18 and the WC game. Hard to win a Super Bowl with that much talent out or playing with significant injuries.

In my humble opinion both guys should be sent packing. Both guys are primarily kick returners and to their credit, both guys gave the Bills a lift one game each over the last two seasons. However, one game each isn't worthy 4-5 million. Harty gave us last year 15 catches for 150 yards and 1 TD. We can replace that production from a practice squad player. Hines gave us mostly receiving yards with 30 catches for 241 and 1 TD (plus 33 yards rushing on 24 attempts - awful). Again this is easily replaced production. Ty Johnson gave us nearly 200 yards from scrimmage in 10 games as a 3rd stringer for 1/5 the cost. The only reason I think they’ll bring Hines back is our lack of backs in the organization that know the offense. Re-sign Johnson as the power back and re-sign Hines as the speed back & kick returner (depending on his knee) at a greatly reduced cap hit and Beane will call it a day. Draft 2 WRs, one early and one late to go with Diggs, Shakir and maybe Shorter.

Here is the Bills vs KC 2023 1-1 RS W14(R) W - 20-17; DP(H) L-24-27 2022 1-0 RS W6(R) W - 24-20 2021 1-1 RS W5(R) W - 38-20; DP(R) L 36-42 2020 0-2 RS W6(H) L - 17-26; CC(R) L-24-38 In the last 4 years we are 3-4 against the Chiefs 3-1 RS, 0-3 in the playoffs. The point differential is -11 (stemming from getting blown out in the 2020 CC). Over the last 3 seasons, we are 3-2 with a +16 pt differential. No team is closer to the Chiefs level than us. With a little luck in the health department, we beat the KC this past season. Add some astute additions by Beane plus a little luck in the health department this coming season, we will be the best team in the AFC.

I live in Atlanta. If they get a real QB you should see an explosion of production from Pitts and London.

What does this have anything to do with my post? I was analyzing top WRs and saw that it was half and half between 1st rd players and non-first rd players. Given where the Bills draft and the type of player available at 28, the Bills seem destined to land a WR at that position. After all, this is a WR thread. If you want to read my thoughts on the draft at large, I posted a look at our most critical needs that might be filled in the draft. I concluded that I expected to try to get a starting WR in the draft, then get rotational players early at DT and Edge followed by an eventual starter at S, but for next season I expected the starting S to come from free agency. I then expect, because 3/5 of the Oline are on 1 year deals, for the Bills in add a center and OT in the middle rounds of the draft. In the later rounds, I expect another DT, and depth players at TE, CB, LB and possible at RB depending on how the draft falls.

I don’t think he’ll be back next season. Too much cap benefit to moving on especially if they retain Hines after a contract restructure. I do believe Beane will draft a 2nd WR in the 5th (we have 2 5th rd picks), but if they like Shorter and release Harty maybe they sign a cheap vet instead.

and he created a very nice Men's store - O'Connell Lucas and Chelf, now simply called O'Connell's.

Except he is still in the NFL as a backup most recently in Chicago. If he is really that bad, how is he still in the league?

I’ve been playing with the simulators, but realized I needed an approach based upon where we might need starters that could reasonably come from the draft. Given where we are picking I came to the following conclusion. The only starter we should expect is at WR. I also think if we grab DT and Edge early in the draft, they should be able to compete for a starters job or at least significant snaps in rotation with vets. Even Rousseau rotated into the lineup his first season. I also looked at the depth chart to see what positions Beane might target mid way and late in the draft. Here is the depth chart how I think things will go based on position allocation from 2023 opening day roster QB Allen - FA Backup RB Cook - Ty Johnson (FA re-sign), Hines (restructured deal) TE Kincaid, Knox - Late Round Draftee (or UDFA) WR Diggs, 1st draft pick, - Shorter, Shakir, late rd pick/Hamler OT Brown, Dawkins - Van Denmark, Mid Round Draft Pick OG Torrence, McGovern - Anderson, Doyle C Morse - Bates, Mid to late Rd Draft pick DT - Oliver, FA signee, - Early Rd Pick, Cheap FA signee, Late Rd Pick (Ideally we bring back Epenesa - because he knows the defense) Edge - Rousseau, Miller - Early Rd Pick, Jonathan, LB - Milano, Benard - Williams, Spector, FA or late Pick CB- Douglas, Benford, T Johnson, Elam, White (IR), Mid to late pick, Cheap FA S - Poyer, FA Signee - Mid draft pick, Hamlin, late pick/cheap FA Picks 1,2,3 - WR (w size and hands) Edge, DT - I hope we trade from 28 down some to get an extra 3rd to draft a Safety. Picks 4,5,6 - S, OT, C, or CB - These are priorities positions to draft because Poyer, T Johnson, Douglas, Dawkins, Brown, and Morse are currently on one year deals. This may change as some of these guys are extended to reduce their 2024 cap hit. Picks 7,8,9,10 - CB, DT, WR (speed), LB, S UDFAs - RB, TE, OLine, Punter? This is my first result using this analysis. I traded 28 for 35, 71 and 136. I thought it came out pretty well. 35 - Mitchell, WR Tex - Size, Hands and decent speed 60 - Hall, DL OSU - Good run stuffer who can get to the QB. 71 - Bullock, S USC - I think he could start immediately 99 - Van Pran, C/IOL UGA - Would allow us to possibly trade Bates to save 4+ in cap and get an asset back 128 - Booker, Edge Kan 136 - Pearl, OT Ill 158 - Wingo, DT LSU - Value pick who can rush the passer and stop the run 161 - McCaffrey, WR Rice - good hands and speed 197 - J Jones, CB FSU 201 - Wiley, TE TCU 205 - Jacobs, LB PSU 245 - McClellan, RB Bama

Ray Lewis is a wonderful mentor to young Ravens.

I looked at the WR stat this past season and 13 receivers finished in the top 25 in Catches, Yards, and 20+ plays. Of the 13, 7 were drafted in the 1st rd and 6 were drafted in round 2-5. 3 of the top 4, Hill, St. Brown, and Nacua were drafted in the 4th or 5th round. Of the 7 1st rd players, Lamb, DJ Moore, Aiyuk, Evans, Chase, Olave, and DeVonta Smith, 3 were top 10 picks, 2 from picks 11-20, and 2 in the last 3rd. There is also no size requirement, except being at least 6 feet tall. Hill and Moore were the only players under 6 feet. Of the remaining 11, 5 were 6-2 or taller. Evans was the tallest and heaviest at 6'5 231. DeVonta Smith was the lightest at 170, followed by Olave at 187 and Hill at 191. The other 10 were 200 lbs or greater. The point of this analysis is that the Bills will probably get an impact WR in the first, but there is also a really good chance that the WR drafted later in the draft could emerge as the better player of the two.

I can understand that. The real issue is getting and keeping quality depth when you are in a bit of a cap crunch. The Bills are likely to lose Floyd, Jones, and Epenesa up front. Those are 3 key contributors even if 2/3 weren't "starters". If Miller can't return to a reasonable form, the D Line, no matter what Beane does will be a huge question mark entering next season. We also only have 4 DL on the roster in Rousseau, Miller, Oliver and Jonathan and we usually carry 9. The other void area is Safety. Poyer and Hamlin are under contract, but who knows what if anything either player has at this point. Ultimately these are the two areas that Beane is going to have to throw his limited FA budget at. Some help will certainly come from the draft, but Beane has to bring in some real experienced help if this team is going to succeed on defense next season. Otherwise, I'm not too concerned about our other "needs". We'll draft a WR to replace Davis. RB depth is easy to come by cheaply or with a late draft pick. OLine depth will come from the draft and we have excellent depth at TE, LB and CB.

Given the depth at WR and Safety, this is an ideal draft to trade down from the 1st to the early second to get an extra top-100 pick.

He had the best season by a Bills RB since McCoy.

Like Ladd, Mitchell is being underrated by people here and in the media. They guy is fantastic. The Adonai teamed with Bowers and McConkey to help UGA win two National Championships catching key passes to help win both games. In fact, he has played in 5 CFP games and caught a TD pass in each one. He is big, quick, has fantastic hands, and knows how to get open. I will be thrilled if the Bills took him at 28. He is a twice as good version of Gabe Davis. Mitchell transferred to Texas to be closer to his daughter. By the way here are the UGA's players who caught a pass in the 2022 CFP Championship game. Bowers (2024 draft 1st rd grade), George Pickens (Steelers), Adonai Mitchell (2024 draft 1/2 rd grade), James Cook (Bills), Darnell Washington (Steelers), James Burton (2024 draft 2nd rd grade), Kearis Jackson (Titans), Kenny McIntosh (Seahawks) and Ladd McConkey (2024 draft 1/2 rd grade). No player caught more than 4 passes in that game. Not a bad collection of talent.

I have all three items. Not sure why I've kept the flashlight and the radio. Yes, the flashlight was for the halftime show. I've also been to an NCAA BB final (IU lost to Maryland), a CFP Final (UGA choked against Bama), World Series games (Braves 91 & 92), and Stanley Cup games (Sabres in 1975 - Bat/Fog game). Given my teams' history when I attend, I don't think I'll be attending again any time soon.

I’ve been to one Super Bowl here in the Atl. Saw my Bills lose to the hated Boys and their awful fans. The swag was pretty good. The seat had a nice seat cushion, with a flash light and small radio with headphones.

Don't be afraid to like him. He is as good as the tape shows. The best thing about him and Bowers is that they always made the big play. He is exactly the type of player the Bills need. If he was two inches taller, he'd probably be in the top 5 WRs taken.

Here is sort of the current depth chart: Possible Cap Casualties are underlined. Players in italics are guys I think Beane will work with to lower their cap hits. OFFENSE QB - Allen; Backups - ZERO; Futures contract: Buechele RB - Cook; Backups - Hines (IR), Gilliam (FB); Futures contract: Evans WR - Diggs, Shakir; Backups - Shorter (IR), Harty; Futures: Isabella, Hamler, Shavers, Thompson TE - Kincaid; Backups - Knox; Futures: McKitty: Other: Davidson (IR) Guards - McGovern, Torrence; Backup - Bates; Tackles - Brown, Dawkins; Backup - Doyle(IR), Van Denmark Futures: Anderson, Gouraige Center - Morse; Backup - Bates DEFENSE Safety - Poyer; Backup - Hamlin; Futures: Williamson Corners - Benford, Douglas, T Johnson; Backups - White(IR), Neal, Elam; Futures: K. Brown (PS), Ingram Linebacker - Milano(IR), Benard; Backups - Williams, Spector Edge - Miller, Rousseau; Backup- Jonathan Tackle - Oliver; Backup - ZERO; Futures: Ankou, Cline Specialists - Bass, Martin & Ferguson That's a 51-man roster of contracted players. Obviously, that's not close to what we'll see next fall, but it does give a pretty good feel for the roster situations. Clear areas on need: Backup QB, at least 5 players along the D line (Edge or tackle), one more LB, at least 2-3 more safeties, possibly a 3rd TE, 2-3 WRs, and another backup RB. Overall, it looks like the needs are about 14-15 players. Starters are needed at WR, Safety, and DT.

Not exactly. We have 10/11 starters on offense returning and 9/11 on defense if Miller is healthy. That’s not exactly needing everything.

We started 2 rookies last year (Kincaid and Torrence) and 4 2nd year players (Cook, Shakir, Bernard, and Benford). Will we start 6 rookies? I highly doubt it, but depending on how the draft goes I can easily see a rookie WR and a rookie S starting next season. I do think we'll see other rookies, especially on the DL, get significant snaps. That's the nature of building depth on a team currently over the cap. On a side note, someone mentioned earlier that drafting for needs while ignoring how the draft falls is a mistake. I generally agree, especially if a really good player falls to you. I did a few mock draft simulations and UGA C Van Pran fell a few times to us at 99. If this happens in real life, the Bills should jump at the chance to grab their future starting center even with Morse and Bates on the roster.

Scary right? How do you complete a roster with only 19 mill in cap space before signing your draft picks? 10 vet bottom of the barrel contracts will cost 15-20 mill.

I can understand how most feel a FA signing at WR is likely. After all Beane has never drafted a receiver above the 4th round and continues to search the Walmart clearance rack for help at the position like Harry and Sherfield. My hope is he finally sees the light and commits real draft capital to the position. We need a cost controlled Davis replacement and an eventually Diggs replacement. Given the depth in this draft at WR this seems like the year of do both. Until we shave 70 Mill off our current cap, everyone is out of our price range. I calculate the top 30 Bills plus dead cap costs us about 261 million in cap.