GASabresIUFan

You have clearly never watched the kid play in person. What does 1000 yards have to do with drafting a college WR? Diggs never approached 1000 yards in college. Mitchell's freshman year at UGA the WR/TE room had Mitchell, Pickens (Pitt 2nd rd), McConkey, Bowers, Burton, Darnell Washington (3rd rd Pitt), and Kearis Jackson (Ten). The running backs included Cook (2nd rd Buf), McIntosh (7th rd Sea), and Zamir White (4th rd LVR). Burton, Bowers, Mitchell and McConkey will all go in the top 3 rounds in 2024. That's a huge amount of talent and Mitchell was 4th in receptions and yards. His second year he was hurt most of the year and worked his butt off to be ready for the end of the season and the CFP games. He caught a TD in all 5 CFP games he played in his career. The kid left UGA to be closer to home and his daughter. There is nothing wrong with the kids attitude or work ethic and his talent is off the charts.

He has a daughter and she was living in Texas. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/why-did-ad-mitchell-transfer-draft/ I want Mitchell in the draft, but I love Ladd McConkey. I've watched Bowers, Burton, McConkey, Mitchell, and Rosemy-Jacksaint in person many times. Mitchell and McConkey are simply game breakers. Ladd can turn a dump off into a 60 yard TD run. Mitchell has the ability to beat CB's deep, but also the ability to get separation in the end zone. Either guy would make the Bills better immediately. I also love the idea of Jacksaint as a 7th round flyer. The kid isn't the fastest, but he has excellent hands, run very good routes and has a knack for making important catches. With Kincaid, we don't need Bowers, but he is the most dynamic TE I've ever seen in college.

FYI on DIggs last season Games 1-6 49 catches on 66 targets for 620 yards and 5 TDs. Catch % 74.24%; Yards/C 12.65 Games 7-19 68 catches on 111 targets for 636 yards and 3 TDS. Catch % 61.26%; yards/c 9.35

I guess Draft Kings got wind of the deal before the media did. I hope you didn't make the Diggs staying in Buffalo bet. More proof why I don't gamble.

I'm perfectly OK with moving Diggs. I'm also perfectly OK with Beane staying at 28 and picking the best WR available on his draft board at that point. I'm hopeful AD Mitchell is still there. Beane's clear goal this off-season was to get younger and cheaper while staying competitive both short and long-term. This deal is a huge step in that direction. I graded the deal a "C" initially, but the more I look at the team's construction and improved cap situation in 2024, 2025 and beyond, I think this deal is better that I initially beleived. If we enter next season with Shakir and Mitchell on the boundary, Samuel, Kincaid and a healthy Knox in the middle, Shorter and Hollins as big receivers, and Cook out of the back field we will have a very dynamic passing attack. Admittedly, it may take a few games for the players to acclimate. However given that list of players, the offense will be younger, faster and have more deep potential. Adding Shorter, Hollins and Mitchell to the receiving group, will also give Josh 5 big targets to throw to. Last season Kincaid caught 80.2% of his targets, Cook 81.5, and Shakir 86.7. The departed receivers: Diggs 66.9, Davis, 55.6, Harty 71.4 and Sherfield 50. Noticing a trend here? Samuel was 68.1% last season, but with Brady as his coach, he caught 79.4% in 2020. As much as I don't like taking a $31 mill cap hit this season, getting $27.3 back in 2025 is a huge benefit of the deal.

Diggs trade cap ramifications. Diggs' dead cap is $31,096000. His cap was going to be $27,854,000 anyway. Therefore the net cap loss is $3,242,000, for 2024, but saves 18 million plus is 2025 and beyond. I would have liked to see a 2nd rd pick in 2024, but such is life.

https://theathletic.com/5385582/2024/04/03/stefon-diggs-trade-texans-bills/ I’m competently shocked. Doesn’t feel legit. So Shakir to Diggs’ spot, Samuel to the slot. 1st rd pick to replace Davis?

Not sure what the OP is really getting at, but the most recent time we drafted immediate starters in the 1st 2 rounds of the draft was last year in Kincaid and Torrence. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/draft.htm If you look at the Bills sorry draft history and looking for good players with our 1st two picks, you come back with 2018 (Allen & Edmunds), 2017 (White, Zay Jones & Dion Dawkins - although Jones is better in Jax then he ever was with us), 2007 (Lynch & Pusluszny), 2003 (McGahee and Kelsey), and 2001 (Clements & Schobel). Not exactly a great drafting history. I am excited about the last two drafts, especially 2022. So far there are 4 starters from that class (Cook (2nd), Bernard (3rd), Shakir (5th) & Benford (6th)) and that is even with the 1st rd miss in Elam. This rivals 2018 (Allen, Edmunds, Philips, Taron Johnson and Wyatt Teller) and 2017 (White, Jones, Dawkins, and Milano) What is the best class in Bills' history? 1985 - Bruce Smith, Chris Burkett, Frank Reich, Andre Reed and Dale Hellestrae? Of the 12 Bills draftees to play 200 or more NFL games, 3 come from the 1985 class. (Class also includes 2 of the 6 Bills HOF draftees who actually played for Buffalo.)

It looks like KC may have to draft two WRs in the upcoming draft.

Taro Tsujimoto jr., PK, Osaka Buffaloes

I hope this helps. https://nfltraderumors.co/nfl-announces-top-25-performance-incentive-bonuses/ https://www.si.com/nfl/giants/2024-giants-PBP-payouts#:~:text=The PBP is classified as a benefit for,contracts and which do count toward the cap.

Benard also made the list at 777K (No. 17). I wonder how much Benford received?

I view those projections with a grain of salt. We have no idea what the cap figure will be. Who would have projected this season at 255? If you add White's $10 to the 8.5 we are currently under the cap, there may even be a cap carryover for next season. When I project the Bill's opening day roster, I see 46 current signees making the team plus 5-6 draft picks. Add in our dead cap (about 30 million with White) and the Bills are at about $240 million for next season. That's leaves a $15 million carry over (give or take some) for 2025. This is with draft picks but without a practice squad or other moves, but it illustrates how much flexibility the Bills still have for 2024 and into 2025. The 46 player depth chart looks like this (Starter) Specialists - Bass (PK), Haack (P) & Ferguson (LS) - I think Haack beats out Martin Offense QB - Allen & Trubisky RB - Cook, Ty Johnson, DRAFT PICK, Gilliam WR - Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Hollins, Shorter & DRAFT PICK TE - Kincaid, Knox & Morris OL - Brown, Dawkins, D. Edwards, McGovern, Torrence, Van Demark, Clapp, Anderson & DRAFT PICK Defense DL - Rousseau, Oliver, Jones, Miller, Epenesa, DS Williams, Jonathan, Toohill, A. Johnson & DRAFT PICK LB- Milano, Benard, Do Williams, Spector, & Morrow CB - Ta Johnson, Benford, Douglas, Elam, Lewis (S) & DRAFT PICK S - M. Edwards, Rapp, Hamlin & DRAFT PICK

I don’t know anything about gambling, but this sounds like Draft Kings has heard and verified trade talks between Buffalo and Houston.

Actually Georgia holds the record of 15 players taken in a 7 rd draft from just two years ago. 1st rd - 5 Dawgs - Walker (1st overall), Jordan Davis (13th), Quay Walker (22nd), Wyatt (28th) and Cine (32nd) 2nd rd - Pickens and Cook 3rd rd - Dean and Tindall 4th rd - White & Camarda 6th rd - Shaffer, Salyer, Kendrick & FitzPatrick https://theathletic.com/4179169/2022/04/30/georgia-breaks-nfl-draft-modern-record-with-15-players-selected-in-2022-most-in-7-round-format/ LSU had 14 in Joe Burrows year with Burrow, Chase and Jefferson leading the way. Go Dawgs!

I'd say right now he is. Diggs had 1183 on 107 catches (160 targets) or 11.1 yds/c. Pickens had 1140 on only 63 catches (106 targets) or 18.1 yds/c. Diggs had only 19 20+ yard plays, while Pickens had 42. Pickens did all this on a team with terrible QB play. What would his stats be with a good QB targeting him 160 times a season? 1700 yards? More?

Maybe the QB was the issue, which is why Pittsburgh traded away the old QB and acquired two replacements. Put Pickens with Josh Allen and we'll see what happens. By the way Diggs had 5 100 yard games this past season and 6 under 50 yards. Chase also had 5 100 yards games, but 7 games under 50 yards.

2022: 2nd rd picks GEORGE PICKENS (1941 yards in 2 seasons including 1140 last year); plus Christian Watson (an emerging star if he can stay healthy) and Alec Pierce, plus Romeo Dobbs in the 4th and Shakir in the 5th 2021: the 2nd rd was not great but Elijah Moore is a solid player from the 2nd, Josh Palmer is good from the 3rd, Nico Collins from the 3rd is an emerging star and Amon St Brown from the 4th is a huge star already. 2020: Did you forget Michael Pittman in the 2nd rd? Davis and Mooney were good later round picks. 2019: Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown & DK Metcalf were all 2nd rd picks. Diontae Johnson and Terry McLaurin went in the 3rd

Looking at the Bills roster, this is looking more and more like a BPA draft. The Bills have 5 WRs on the roster and carried 5 last season The Bills have 9 DT & Edge players including all the starters and carried 10 last year. The Bills have 4 safeties on the roster (including Lewis) and carried 4 last season On defense there are openings for 1 depth DL, and 2 depth DBs. On offense there are openings for 1 3rd string RB, and 1 backup OL. Shorter's grasp of the 5th WR role is tenuous. The top needs are still (IMHO) in order WR, S, IOL, DL, CB and RB

I call BS. I watched this kid for two years at UGA battle through injuries and always worked his way back to the field and contributed. He was finally healthy his one year at Texas and was excellent all season. He transferred to Texas to be close to his daughter. I have zero questions about this young man's character.

As I reviewed the new player contracts, I noticed Toohill received only a 15K signing bonus. His dead cap if released is only 15K. When I compared that to other lower end veteran contracts (Like Ty Johnson and Morrow), their dead cap was about 50% of their cap hit. I took this to mean that management believes that Toohill might be beaten out for one of the backup DL roles, maybe by one of the draft picks. Edit: DT depth added. Bills sign DT DeShawn Williams. Another former Panther. Updated Roster using a 51 man roster: Starters in Bold Offense 21 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)). QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (4) - current 3: Cook, Johnson & Gilliam TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR (5) - current 5: Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Hollins & Shorter (Hamler & Isabella in the mix) Oline (9) - current 8: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Clapp, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix) Defense 22 of 25 players Dline (10) - Current 9 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, Epenesa, D. Williams, A. Johnson & Toohill (Cline and Ankou also in the mix) LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector CB (6) - current 5 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, Elam & Lewis (S) S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Edwards, & Hamlin Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team. Notes on Williams, A Johnson and Clapp. Williams earned 1.75 with the Panthers last year. He was undrafted out of Clemson in 2015. Clapp made 1.159 with the Chargers last year. Johnson was also with Chargers last year and made 6.75. His new Bills contract is for 1 year at 3.5.

Cap space at $10 mill with the, D Williams, Clapp and A. Johnson’s contracts not accounted for. Edwards (S) signed for 2.8 for 1 year and the cap hit is the same. Updated to reflect the Williams signing.

I never said that. I said they may not draft a receiver as early as people here, including me, hope. Last year our 3 starting WRs were 2 5th rd picks (Diggs & Shakir) and a 4th rd pick (Davis). Just because a player was drafted on day 3 doesn’t mean they won’t be given a chance to earn PT. Davis earned significant PT as a rookie. Brady increased Shakir’s usage and targets and Shakir delivered, likely earning Brady and McD’s trust in the process.

What if the plan is to not to draft a receiver high at all? Sounds crazy right! However, I believe there is a scenario where Shakir becomes the Davis replacement next season. Shakir's combine stats were nearly identical to Diggs' his draft year. Their size, speed, jumping ability are nearly identical. Last season, Shakir's 15.7 yards per catch was 12th in the NFL of wideouts with 30 or more receptions. For comparison purposes, Mike Evans finished 10th in that stat at 15.9 and Justin Jefferson 11th at 15.8 (Davis was 6th at 16.6). Shakir also had 17 20+ yard plays in only 45 targets. To put that number into context, Tyreek Hill lead the NFL with 57 plays of 20+ yards on 171 targets. That's 1 20 yard or longer play for every 3 targets. Shakir's 17 20+ yard plays were 1 on every 2.6 targets. Obvious this is a bit of a small sample size, but it does get one thinking. Now add in that management spent their biggest FA contract on a slot receiver (Samuel) and this scenario begins to gain some traction. Now add that management moved a guard to center, so is it really so far fetched to think they might move a receiver from the slot to the boundary, especially with Samuel and Kincaid to patrol the interior? I'll add two other pieces of data in support of this scenario: 1. Beane has never drafted a WR in the 1st 3 rounds of a draft; 2. McD/Beane hate starting rookies. We can look to Shakir's usage from year 1 to year 2 to illustrate how Bills management feels about playing most rookies. All that said, I personally believe Beane will break with tradition and draft a WR in the 1st 3 rounds in April, but I do believe that Shakir has a great chance of being the WR2 opening next season. I believe this because Beane is also going to replace Diggs possibly after the 2024 season and certainly after the 2025 season. My guess is in 2026 the starting WR1 and WR2 will be Shakir and whomever we draft in April. As much as I want Thomas or Mitchell in Bills Blue and Red next season, I can see Beane trading back to add the 3rd rd pick traded for Douglas and then utilizing a 2nd rd pick or the new third on the receiver. Guys like Worthy, Legette, Coleman or even Burton or Devontez Walker could be the guys on the radar. FYI: Mitchell 6-2, 205 lbs, 39.5 in vertical, 4.34 in the 40. Walker 6-1.5, 193 lbs, 40.5 in vertical, 4.36 in the 40. Not to be cynical, but the difference between a 1st rd pick and a 2nd rd pick in cap cost is almost $1.3 million.

I sometimes think they approved replay in the first place to sell more ad time.