GASabresIUFan

These are the highest-paid players on the roster who really don't have a place on the roster going forward. White is injured and has been replaced by Douglas. Hines and Harty are overpaid kick returners, who can and should be replaced by an incoming draft pick or cheap FA. Neal and Gilliam are almost completely special teams players. Brady diminished Gilliam's role on the offense to only 17 snaps in the last 5 weeks of the season. Neal received 48 D snaps the entire year, including only 11 snaps in the last 8 games. The Bills can no longer afford to keep guys who are primarily special teamers. They need depth players they trust to play on offense and defense as well as special teams given our cap problems. By the way, the Bills have Hamlin still under contract for $1,095,119 next season (about 2.3 million less than Neal is scheduled to make). He can easily fill Neal's role, but he may be let go as well. Hamlin's dead cap if released in only 40K. As to who replaces Gilliiam's very limited role on the offense? Someone like Quentin Morris (if re-signed) and in goal-line situations we could use an extra OL or DL. A draft pick or UDFA could also earn the spot. The Bills have TE's TreMcKitty and Zach Davidson under cheap contracts if they need an extra big body or two. FYI: Spotrac projects these $ figures for some of our key FAs: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ Floyd ($8.1), Jones ($6.8), Epenesa ($5.6), Rapp ($5.5), Dodson ($4.9), Dane Jackson ($3.1)

It depends on whether Morse wants to return and whether management feels that Bates can fill the role for less. I suspect the solution here is Morse extends another year enabling the Bills to structure the contract to cut his cap hit by $3 mill or more in 2024.

Without some major restructuring of contracts here is the BIlls' basic problem cap-wise. The main offensive players under contract (14) (1QB, 1RB, 3WR, 2 TE, 7OL)- Allen, Cook, Diggs, Shakir, Shorter, Kincaid, Knox, Brown, Dawkins, Morse, Torrence, Bates, and Van Denmark, cost $141,184,141. The main defensive players under contract (13) (3DE, 1DT, 4LB, 4CB, 1S) - Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, Bernard, Milano, Spector, Williams, Johnson, Elam, Douglas, Benford, and Poyer, cost $87,937,695 Add 3 specialists Bass, Martin and Ferguson for $7,682,500 plus void dead cap of $11,635,084 and the Bills are at $248,439,420 in cap for 30 players. This doesn't include 5 players under contract likely to be cut costing $33,139,404. If cut, these 5 (White, Harty, Hines, Gilliam, and Neal), would save $20,027,901 off the $33+ million, but would bring the Bills cap total for 30 players plus dead cap to $261,550,923. To put things in simple terms, the Bills are over the projected cap even with the 5 cuts approx $20 mill, and still need to add 24 players to the roster. So for those expecting big $ trades or FA signings, I think you are barking up the wrong tree. The Bills are going to have to cut an additional $40 Million from the cap, besides the 5 cuts, to sign their draft picks and complete the roster with players making near-minimum contracts. What a mess. I'm not saying Beane can't get it done. Obviously, he has to, but I'm no longer even expecting any like a McGovern level signing. Looking at our FAs who people want back, here is what they made last season: Jones (8,563,333), Floyd (2,628,750), Dodson (2,010,000), Jackson (2,010,000), Epenesa (1,870,000), Rapp (1,770,000), Edwards (1,770,000), Ty Johnson (1,080,000) and Morris ($870,000). We can't afford Jones, and Floyd and Epenesa won't come back anywhere close to their numbers. Rapp and Edwards will also likely command bigger $. It's going to be a long hard, but interesting off-season to see what rabbits Beane can pull out of his hat to complete this roster.

However given our cap issues we need players that contribute on O\D and special teams. We really can’t afford special teams specialists

Our coverage on special teams was terrible. Get rid of them all and start again.

Time to move on and save nearly $2 mill in cap

Trade down from 28 to even later in the 1st or early 2nd to garner an extra 3rd rd pick (plus?). Once that's done, use our 1st pick on the BPA WR and then use one of the 2 3rds on a WR as well. If you can come away with two of Mitchell, Worthy, McConkey and/or Burton, our WR group will substantially improve both short and long-term. I also really like Brendan Rice. One sleeper pick for day 3 of the draft is Rosemy-Jacksaint, he has size, good speed, and an incredible catch radius. He will be undervalued in the draft because he wasn't the primary target ever while as UGA. He played behind, Bowers, McConkey, and even Burton and Mitchell before they transferred out to be the No. 1 guys at Bama and Texas respectively.

You don't need a pure No. 1 if you have an excellent group of pass catchers that keeps the defense from scheming or double-teaming a player to take them away. Compare the Bills to GB. They have 5 WRs and 2 TEs who all catch the ball well, the WRs all have speed and run good routes. How does one defend when there are 5 guys in the pattern that can beat you and take the ball to the house? You don't, you can only hope to slow them down and hope they make a mistake. GB's top 4 receivers, all drafted in the last 2 drafts account for 2500 yards and 25 TDs. This is what Brady did at LSU and what he should do here. When opponents looked at the Bills they focused on Diggs. Diggs helped them out by dropping passes (he has now done that in the last 2 years). They ignored Davis, Sherfield, and Harty. Davis had a few big games but otherwise faded as the season progressed. As Diggs faded as well, Kincaid and Shakir picked up some of the slack, but not enough in the end. However, draft two capable guys early in the draft and we go from just having 3 targets to 5 and we look much more like GB. Add Cook to the mix and Allen should have a huge year regardless of whether or not the 2 draftees are as impactful as GB's kids. Add guys like Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey and our size, speed, and hands all improve immediately.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ 2024 Diggs - Cap Hit - $27,895,400; Dead Cap if cut - $31,096,000 2025 Diggs - Cap Hit - $27,354,000; Dead Cap if cut - $22,247,000 2026 Diggs - Cap Hit - $28,446,000; Dead Cap if cut - $13,398,000 2024 Miller - Cap Hit - $23,784,000; Dead Cap if cut - $32,501,000 2025 Miller - Cap Hit - $23,874,000; Dead Cap if cut - $15,417,000 2026 Miller - Cap Hit - $26,374,000; Dead Cap if cut - $9,043,000 If it's possible to restructure these deals to move some cap to 2026 without making it too big a hit to cut them in 2026, this may be a helpful way to save some cap in 2024.

I was just about to post that his original video was overly optimistic about the Bills' cap situation. $45-50 million over seems to be the situation. The Bills might have to clear $70 million to pay their draft picks and sign cheap FAs to fill the roster spots from cut players. There is no way, even with restructuring contracts that the Bills are hitting FA with anything major. They are going to have to hit on 3-4 players in the draft year one and get lucky again on some cheap contract like Floyd this past season. I wish Beane the best of luck. Diggs is the one contract I wouldn't restructure. We need to be able to move on in two years and restructuring will just prolonging the inevitable. Tre White has to be at the top of the cut list, because Douglas is on the roster now. $6 mill in savings pre-June 1, $10 million after June 1. Morse if cut save 8.5. With Bates on the roster, I can see this happening, but I'd prefer to keep him given the strength of the line's play last season. Poyer would save 5.7, but I doubt he can be replaced for anywhere close to that number. Harty would save $4 mill, and will be gone. Hines saves 4.6. Neal saves 2.8 Gilliam saves 1.9 McGovern, Taron Johnson, Douglas, and Dawkins should all be extended which could create cap savings in 2024.

So his Boutte is in a sling?

I'm a UGA fan and the two best individual performances I've seen by an opposing QB (Burrow and LSU excepted) against UGA were Mayfield in the Rose Bowl and Stroud in the Peach Bowl. Those two literally carried both of their teams in those games. However, since Stroud is an NFL rookie, I have a hard time putting him ahead of guys in their prime who have QB'd their teams to multiple playoff appearences like Hurts and Dak. That said, if he remains healthy, it won't be long until he's a top 5 or so NFL QB. So why Love so high? He's probably a little too high, but he QB'd one of my fantasy teams to a title after Herbert got hurt. Seriously, he looked like Aaron Rodgers getting GB into the playoffs, and with the weapons he has (the Bills should be so lucky) he is on the verge of being in the MVP conversation as early as next year.

What about getting a tall WR with speed? Adonai Mitchell for example.

I was trying to think of the 10 QB’s that I’d want for my team. I’m taking into account age, injury history and performance. 1. Mahomes 2. Allen 3. Love 4. Jackson 5. Purdy 6. Hurts 7. Dak 8. Stroud 9. Burrow 10. Herbert I discounted Burrow and Herbert for injury concerns. I elevated Love because he helped me win fantasy and was incredible down the stretch and in the playoffs. No Tua, because I think he’s one hit away from being done. Lawrence has a chance to emerge. Goff has had a great year, but I still think he is more of a game manager than franchise QB.

It’s a great question. Do you go with the younger guy who is less productive or the older guy who is more productive. I’m a UGA guy, so I’m partial to Floyd, but Epenesa had a breakout year and I can see him having more upside going forward and this team needs to get younger. My other thought is try to get an edge rusher in the draft. I think we could get lucky and someone like Chris Braswell could fall to us in 3rd round.

Here are 4 the top 4 WRs for the Bills other than Diggs since Beane became GM 1. 137 catches 1316 yards 11 TDs 2. 106 catches 1560 years 10 TDs 3. 233 catches 2486 yards 11 TDs 4. 167 catches 2730 yards 27 TDs Any guesses? 3 are UFAs and 1 is a draft pick. Here is how much we paid each player 1. $5,911,443 (Isaiah McKenzie) 2. $18,990,981 (John Brown) 3. $23,170,797 (Cole Beasley) 4. $5,774,690 (Gabe Davis - 4th rd pick) For a cap-strapped team, what should the plan be, go after another UFA or use a high draft pick (which we have never done since Beane has been the GM) to get a real upgrade in talent at the WR position? To me the answer is obvious. Enough with FAs. We have already invested enough in the fading Diggs. Time to build a good receiving corps in the draft. This is something long overdue.

Beane drafted starters Offense - Allen, Cook, Brown, Knox, Torrence, and Kincaid. Plus WR 3 in Shakir. Defense - Oliver, Benford, Benard, Rousseau and Johnson, plus Elam, and youngsters Spector, and Williams at LB who look like potential good depth. Plus he also used top draft capital on Phillips, Basham and Epenesa that didn’t really work out. Seems to me he has been pretty even handed on both sides of the ball with more high end draft capital spent on Dline much of which were mistakes. The biggest holes on this roster are WR and Safety. Those should be the primary concerns early in the draft. I wrote in another thread we should trade down in the 1st to add another 3rd and then go WR, S, Edge, WR with the 1st 4 picks.

This team needs to get younger, cheaper, and more talented. Diggs is a 2 now and we can't afford (and shouldn't invest) in a true No. 1 receiver. We are better off drafting and trying to develop one instead.

We need to only use draft capital to solve our WR issues. We need to draft one early and another in the 3/4 rounds. We shouldn't waste any cap $ on another castoff from another team. See the money we wasted on Sherfield and Harty this past season for all the reasons not to add such a player. Diggs (1/2) Early draft pick (1/2) - Adonai Mitchell. If we trade back to the 2nd (to add other draft capital) then Troy Franklin Shakir (3) Later draft pick (4) - Ladd McConkey would be a great add late in the 3rd or Brenden Rice late 3rd early 4th. Shorter (5) if he even makes the teams Don't forget we already added one speedy castoff from another team in Hamler (who didn't even catch a ball last season). If they retain Hines, then the kick return duties will fall to him instead of a WR.

Hamler has zero catches last year and only 12 the two previous. This is not some un-polished gem waiting to be discovered. If he makes this team, Beane has again failed to give Josh the weapons he needs.

No. We can no longer try to fix our WR mess with cast off from other teams. We need to invest in the position. We need to use two of our top 3 picks on WRs and finally, for the first time in Beane’s tenure, have real depth and talent at the position that can be part of the solution long-term. Samuel is just another band-aid.

How do we make this team better? Draft well (WR & Safety), continue to get younger, and hit on some cheap FAs like we did last year on Floyd

Morse already said he wants to come back next season. I don't see a long-term extension, but they could easily add another year

He is under contract for next season. I expect they'll extend him for a year or two, which if structured properly will lower his cap hit in 2024. I expect extensions for Dawkins, Taron Johnson, and maybe Morse.