Cray51

Crazy we are now at a place where people are excited for Davis to come back. I've always been a fan, but to see others are is funny given the feeling around him 18 months ago!

This has been a 13-4 team since the offseason. team is getting better as the season goes on. 10-7 is wild. Not a chance

Yea I've googled him. Hence why I know his catch rate is 63% for his career. Davis is 53%. It's an improvement, but for reference Palmer's catch rate is 65%. So again, if you want a downfield threat in the offense, Palmer per their careers is probably the best option. I'm not saying Shaheed isn't a decent option, but he (by the numbers) would even be the best downfield threat on this team even if we acquired him. Palmer is a better version of Shaheed. If Beane believes Palmer will be ready to go by the playoffs, I could see why he wouldn't want to target Shaheed really at all. In addition, when you factor in cost to acquire, if Davis for free gives you an 8-10% loss in production compared to Shaheed for what would likely have been a 3rd or 4th+4th next year, going with Davis makes sense. As I said in earlier posts - if Shaheed was a 6th to acquire, I wouldn't bat an eye. But a 3rd or two 4ths? I dont think that makes sense.

Drops have been a concern,but Shaheed's catch rate has only been marginally better than Davis in his career. Palmer has a better rate than both, so if the goal is a downfield threat with hands Palmer is better than Davis or Shaheed.

The story of Jordan Phillips. Former 2nd rounder who goes to a bad Miami organization, turns up to Buffalo and fits with the team for a half decade.

And (ducks for cover), Davis has consistently stretched the field more than Shaheed (his average depth of catch each year has been higher than Shaheed, meaning he stretches the field more frequently and catches more passes when doing so. I know people hate Davis, but I actually think he can be a very solid #3/4 for this team not only this year, but for the next few

Is he through? He has been a #3/4 his entire career. This year he is getting fed targets, but I wouldn't call him a difference maker. He is worse than Josh Palmer in almost every core stat. He wouldn't be a slot guy over Shakir. So you are upgrading from Coleman to Shaheed. Is that really worth the investment? If it was a 5th only, sure. But I wouldn't give up a 3rd to bring him in.

And there are multiple variables and odds to consider. Do you punt, which gives KC a 2% chance of a TD but gives you a 0% chance of winning. You convert a punt 99% of the time Do you FG, which gives you a 100% chance of winning but KC a 5% chance if you miss. You make a FG in that range 75% of the time Do you go for it, which gives you a 100% chance of winning, but KC a 5% chance if you miss, plus the chances of a fumble/INT being way higher. You convert 45% of the 4th downs at that distance. I go FG - it's the highest chance of a put away play with the lowest possible TD the other way rate, and KC's chances go up minimally with a miss (which is what happened).

Ridiculous. Kicking the field goal was 100% the right call. Just like how he handled the goal line stand in the 1st half - masterful. No one is talking about it because the people who hate McD can't seem to give him any credit. Blown coverage leads to KC with the ball at the half yard like, 37 seconds left. McD doesn't call TO right away, he waits until they are close to snapping to stop the clock at 25 seconds. It allows him to change personnel and bring the big run stuffers in. Hunt is 18 for 20 in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 conversions, and he is at the goal line. Personnel change allows the stop on 1st, the two incomplete passes on 2nd and 3rd down, and the FG keeps KC to 3 points instead of 7. Ended up being a huge moment, Buffalo didnt have to worry about defending a field goal at the end of the game. McD was very good against the Chiefs. People need to cut it out with the crap. Watch 75% of the coaches around the league mess things up consistently and then tell me McD is a bad tactical coach

I was running the numbers today: he has never had a season under 6 rushing TDs. past two seasons have seen him score 15 and 12 TDs respectively. this year he is already at 7 in 8 games there is no reason to think he won’t do 10+ each year for the next 3-4 seasons. not only do I think he will make it to 124, he may reach 140

Assuming he can get 50 more rushing TDs,he will end his career top 5 ALL TIME

Long term, the lineup will be: CBs: Benford Hairston Strong Safety: Bishop Hancock They will likely draft a slot CB, and another safety (or sign someone ala Rapp) At this point, I'd say the secondary looks like it COULD be good, but nothing is set in stone. Need to bring in a future slot corner.

I'm thinking they will be 11-6 at the end of the year. They will lose a game in the division, and maybe the Colts or Dallas

Very well coached game - team was disciplined, structured, and didn't force anything on offense. Defense looked measured, have to think McD calling plays and coordinating with Poyer back there is helping. I dont understand why people are pooping on McD last night. He coached a very very good game. His timeout at the end of the half with 25 seconds left was perfect. Allowed his personnel to reset, put the goal line team in, and they made 3 great plays to hold the Chiefs to 3 points. In the past few years, whenever the Bills get their midseason win over the Chiefs it kicks them into gear and they go on a run. Last year was a 4-1 run to lock up the division and conference with a game in hand going into NE. Fingers crossed we continue that push this year

Dude tore his Achilles, and still tried to rush and finish the play

Chiefs gave bosa free run to Mahomes, and leaked an RB behind. Forced Bosa to stutter to cover the fake screen, then runs Kelce to the first down line on a deep curl as a decoy, takes Worthy deep on the left to clear the safety, and takes rice on an option route to let him work. Forces Bernard to make a decision on kelce or rice. it was a great play call Like what…

I think it was a Reid master play that he saves for the playoffs, but had to bring it out to try to convert knowing that play was the game at that point

His timeout at the end of the half to reset the defensive unit was very smart and likely saved us from allowing a touchdown

The problem hasn't been replacing a Beasley/Davis/Sanders - it's replacing Diggs. He was top 5 WR level with us during the 2020-2022 runs. He was the outlet on scramble drills. He was the zone beater, the coverage beater, the contested catch guy, etc. They have replaced Beasley, it's Shakir Davis is replaced with Coleman Mckenzie replaced with Samuel (not exact, but similar) Smoke replaced with Palmer If you are going to try to get a Diggs replacement, it's going to have to be a bit of a prayer for someone like BJT/Addison to be dealt and elevate their game. If they get a guy who is 80% of what Diggs was, the passing offense will spring forward

Something I've noticed watching those games from prior years, having a top 5 WR in the game was special. Allen had a guy who could catch a ball on the boundary in tight coverage while getting their feet down. I'd love a Justin Jefferson, Chase, Diggs, etc. It puts so much more pressure on Allen, but these guys are just so hard to add to a team who has been a sustained contender.

I'll be honest, I think Allen, especially after last seasons injury in week 1, has dialed down runs during the regular season. Allen will turn it up when the games matter. As in, win or go home matter. He wants to escape the pocket now, but you can tell he is trying to throw at all costs instead of going through a corner or running around a DE. That will change when we get to January, 100%

In the right role, Davis is a solid addition. If the option is him vs. Shavers, Davis is a better blocker and slightly better at boundary route running. I have no issues bringing him in as WR4/5

Aiden is a great player, but damn that's a lot of dough.

I'll admit I was a BIG fan of his at the draft. Size, speed, growth over the course of his career in college. I thought he could come in and be a motor guy who can properly disrupt and constrict the pocket. From his preseason tape, it looked like he was simply slow to react and was getting fooled a lot. I sitll think there is a player there, he just needs to adapt to the speed and complexity of the NFL. I think he will be a late bloomer and will get more time next season as the DE depth thins

Thanks for the callout, I meant to do an FA review but it's incredibly time consuming. I'll address it in a shorter form. If I look at the last three offseasons, here are the key acquisitions made by the Chiefs/Ravens/Bills by year 2023: Bills: Damian Harris - Bust Connor McGovern - Great pickup Latavius Murray - Meh Poona Ford - Bust Taylor Rapp - Meh Trent Sherfield - Bust David Edwards - Good Deonte Hardy - Bust Overall - Meh. The team had Diggs/Davis at this time, and wanted to protect Allen. They did secure 40% of their O-line for the next 3 seasons with this class, but not much else. 3 guys still on roster Ravens: Beckham - Meh Nelson Agholor - Bust Geno Stone - Good Clowney - Good Van Noy - GREAT Darby - Bust Rock Ya Sin - Bust Laquan Treadwell - Bust Overall - Van Noy was a huge find, Geno Stone was a one year wonder, and Clowney was as well. One guy still on the roster in Van Noy Chiefs: Drue Tranquill - Good Bryan Cowert - Bust Mike Edwards - Meh Jawaan Taylor - Meh Charles Omenihu - Good Overall - Decent. Tranquill was a good find, Taylor has been their RT for a while, Omenihu is decent. 3 players still with team 2023 OVERALL: No one really sticks out. The Bills did a nice job bringing in O-line starters, who ran a top 5 group last year. Nothing else really stands out 2024: Bills: Samuel - Bust Ty Johnson - good (was a midseason pickup in 2023 but counting here) Mack Hollins - Meh Morrow - Bust Will Clapp - Bust Casey Toohill - Bust Overall - bad class. A lot of nothing, but this was considered the transition year eating Digg's contract Ravens: Henry - GREAT Josh Jones - Bust Chris Board - Bust Overall - Henry was a major get. Helped the offense a TON. Otherwise, nothing Chiefs: Marquise Brown - Meh Irv Smith - Bust Juju - Meh Overall - Brown and Juju are fine, but replacement level players for KC 2024 OVERALL: Ravens win with Henry, but again, not a ton here. Some depth guys. Brown has been ok for KC, Samuel as bust for the Bills I wont go into 2025 yet, too early in the year. Again, the theme here is these top teams focus most of their assets in drafted, developing, and retaining talent. In FA, each team has obtained 3-4 starters out of the 22 possible players on the field, but other than Henry, no one that's really top top end. Van Noy/Tranquill/McGovern/Edwards have been good finds that have helped their teams, but other than that, it's a lot of bleh or straight up crappy.