Cray51

I was running the numbers today: he has never had a season under 6 rushing TDs. past two seasons have seen him score 15 and 12 TDs respectively. this year he is already at 7 in 8 games there is no reason to think he won’t do 10+ each year for the next 3-4 seasons. not only do I think he will make it to 124, he may reach 140

Assuming he can get 50 more rushing TDs,he will end his career top 5 ALL TIME

Long term, the lineup will be: CBs: Benford Hairston Strong Safety: Bishop Hancock They will likely draft a slot CB, and another safety (or sign someone ala Rapp) At this point, I'd say the secondary looks like it COULD be good, but nothing is set in stone. Need to bring in a future slot corner.

I'm thinking they will be 11-6 at the end of the year. They will lose a game in the division, and maybe the Colts or Dallas

Very well coached game - team was disciplined, structured, and didn't force anything on offense. Defense looked measured, have to think McD calling plays and coordinating with Poyer back there is helping. I dont understand why people are pooping on McD last night. He coached a very very good game. His timeout at the end of the half with 25 seconds left was perfect. Allowed his personnel to reset, put the goal line team in, and they made 3 great plays to hold the Chiefs to 3 points. In the past few years, whenever the Bills get their midseason win over the Chiefs it kicks them into gear and they go on a run. Last year was a 4-1 run to lock up the division and conference with a game in hand going into NE. Fingers crossed we continue that push this year

Dude tore his Achilles, and still tried to rush and finish the play

Chiefs gave bosa free run to Mahomes, and leaked an RB behind. Forced Bosa to stutter to cover the fake screen, then runs Kelce to the first down line on a deep curl as a decoy, takes Worthy deep on the left to clear the safety, and takes rice on an option route to let him work. Forces Bernard to make a decision on kelce or rice. it was a great play call Like what…

I think it was a Reid master play that he saves for the playoffs, but had to bring it out to try to convert knowing that play was the game at that point

His timeout at the end of the half to reset the defensive unit was very smart and likely saved us from allowing a touchdown

The problem hasn't been replacing a Beasley/Davis/Sanders - it's replacing Diggs. He was top 5 WR level with us during the 2020-2022 runs. He was the outlet on scramble drills. He was the zone beater, the coverage beater, the contested catch guy, etc. They have replaced Beasley, it's Shakir Davis is replaced with Coleman Mckenzie replaced with Samuel (not exact, but similar) Smoke replaced with Palmer If you are going to try to get a Diggs replacement, it's going to have to be a bit of a prayer for someone like BJT/Addison to be dealt and elevate their game. If they get a guy who is 80% of what Diggs was, the passing offense will spring forward

Something I've noticed watching those games from prior years, having a top 5 WR in the game was special. Allen had a guy who could catch a ball on the boundary in tight coverage while getting their feet down. I'd love a Justin Jefferson, Chase, Diggs, etc. It puts so much more pressure on Allen, but these guys are just so hard to add to a team who has been a sustained contender.

I'll be honest, I think Allen, especially after last seasons injury in week 1, has dialed down runs during the regular season. Allen will turn it up when the games matter. As in, win or go home matter. He wants to escape the pocket now, but you can tell he is trying to throw at all costs instead of going through a corner or running around a DE. That will change when we get to January, 100%

In the right role, Davis is a solid addition. If the option is him vs. Shavers, Davis is a better blocker and slightly better at boundary route running. I have no issues bringing him in as WR4/5

Aiden is a great player, but damn that's a lot of dough.

I'll admit I was a BIG fan of his at the draft. Size, speed, growth over the course of his career in college. I thought he could come in and be a motor guy who can properly disrupt and constrict the pocket. From his preseason tape, it looked like he was simply slow to react and was getting fooled a lot. I sitll think there is a player there, he just needs to adapt to the speed and complexity of the NFL. I think he will be a late bloomer and will get more time next season as the DE depth thins

Thanks for the callout, I meant to do an FA review but it's incredibly time consuming. I'll address it in a shorter form. If I look at the last three offseasons, here are the key acquisitions made by the Chiefs/Ravens/Bills by year 2023: Bills: Damian Harris - Bust Connor McGovern - Great pickup Latavius Murray - Meh Poona Ford - Bust Taylor Rapp - Meh Trent Sherfield - Bust David Edwards - Good Deonte Hardy - Bust Overall - Meh. The team had Diggs/Davis at this time, and wanted to protect Allen. They did secure 40% of their O-line for the next 3 seasons with this class, but not much else. 3 guys still on roster Ravens: Beckham - Meh Nelson Agholor - Bust Geno Stone - Good Clowney - Good Van Noy - GREAT Darby - Bust Rock Ya Sin - Bust Laquan Treadwell - Bust Overall - Van Noy was a huge find, Geno Stone was a one year wonder, and Clowney was as well. One guy still on the roster in Van Noy Chiefs: Drue Tranquill - Good Bryan Cowert - Bust Mike Edwards - Meh Jawaan Taylor - Meh Charles Omenihu - Good Overall - Decent. Tranquill was a good find, Taylor has been their RT for a while, Omenihu is decent. 3 players still with team 2023 OVERALL: No one really sticks out. The Bills did a nice job bringing in O-line starters, who ran a top 5 group last year. Nothing else really stands out 2024: Bills: Samuel - Bust Ty Johnson - good (was a midseason pickup in 2023 but counting here) Mack Hollins - Meh Morrow - Bust Will Clapp - Bust Casey Toohill - Bust Overall - bad class. A lot of nothing, but this was considered the transition year eating Digg's contract Ravens: Henry - GREAT Josh Jones - Bust Chris Board - Bust Overall - Henry was a major get. Helped the offense a TON. Otherwise, nothing Chiefs: Marquise Brown - Meh Irv Smith - Bust Juju - Meh Overall - Brown and Juju are fine, but replacement level players for KC 2024 OVERALL: Ravens win with Henry, but again, not a ton here. Some depth guys. Brown has been ok for KC, Samuel as bust for the Bills I wont go into 2025 yet, too early in the year. Again, the theme here is these top teams focus most of their assets in drafted, developing, and retaining talent. In FA, each team has obtained 3-4 starters out of the 22 possible players on the field, but other than Henry, no one that's really top top end. Van Noy/Tranquill/McGovern/Edwards have been good finds that have helped their teams, but other than that, it's a lot of bleh or straight up crappy.

Sure, it paces to 1000 yards on the dot too. However, There are still questions around Worthy and his ability to be healthy and handle the wear and tear of a full 17 game season. He already missed 3 games this year, and is averaging under 50 yards in the full games he has played.

Worthy before the backups were playing for Philly was 2 catches for 9 yards. He had 149 receiving yards and 6 catches after Philly stopped playing any defensive starters and the game was 34-0 He was 13 catches for 139 yards over 2.5 games prior to Philly not caring. Credit to him for beating up on Philly's backups, but he was a non-factor when the game mattered. Worthy is a decent receiver right now who get way overhyped for being a strong gadget guy at the goalline and having great speed. He still doesn't generate natural separation against NFL corners. The Chiefs make him work, that doesn't mean he is an incredible player. Hence as a late first, he is an ok pick for the spot. If he can be a 1100 yard 10 TD threat, then he is a great pick for the spot. He isn't anywhere close to that right now

Not a shocking statement, Allen played a lot like Mahomes did in the Super Bowl. Tried to ditch the pocket early, looked downfield too often, and tried to superman his way to a win. Every QB has these games - Allen needs to reset during the bye week and move on.

Zach Ertz Finally, the Bills get who they've wanted to go after for years

Walker is a monster, a bit of a unicorn with his size and agility. If he can continue to take advantage of the guards and centers setting the line on run plays and use his lateral agility (which is other world) to shed and tackle, he will be a first and second down staple. if he learns to shed and collapse the pocket through the middle? He is an every down player. at 21 years old? This was a swing for the fences pick that has shown great return so far

Singletary. Averaged 5.1 a carry as a rookie sharing with Gore. Similar to Walker producing and ramping up over the fast half of the year.

I compared the last three drafts (not the current season, too soon) of Buffalo compared to a few other teams who have been in similar situations as the Bills (Division winners since 2020, high end QB). That pretty much leaves Baltimore and Kansas City. And with that, Baltimore had a few down years (21-22 and 22-23). Bills: Draft Picks: 2024: Coleman - Meh so far Bishop - Meh so far Carter - Bust Davis - Meh Van-Prager - Bust Ulofisho - Bust Solomon - Bust Grable - Unknown (they like him a lot) Hardy - Bust Clayton - Bust No standout talent Ravens: 2024: Wiggins - Good Rosengarten - Meh Isaac - Bust Walker - Bust Tampa - Meh (bad year so far) Ali - Bust Leary - Bust Samac - Bust Kane - Bust KC: 2024: Worthy - Meh/Good (He has had big games, but his career stats are almost EXACTLY like Colemans') Kingsley - Meh Wiley - Bust Hicks - Meh Nourzad - Meh Hadden - Bust Hanson - Bust 2024 Summary: None of the teams hit on a stud in this draft. Worthy has shown a flash or two, but the production doesnt match the way some speak of him here. Wiggins is probably the best player of the group to date. No superstars or even stars out of the group yet (maybe Wiggins, but I'd say that's a stretch) 2023: Bills: Kincaid - Meh/Good (Trending well but injured frequently) Torrence - Good (Maybe really good) Williams - Meh Shorter - Bust Broeker - Bust Austin - Bust for the Bills, Meh pick overall Ravens: Flowers - Good Simpson - Good Robinson - Meh Kelly - Bust Laulu - Bust Vorehees - meh KC: Uzomah - Bust Rice - Good Morris - Bust Conners - Meh (decent player though) Thompson - Bust Coburn - Bust Jones - Bust 2023 Summary: Again, all similar results to date. Baltimore with probably the best results, but you could argue the Bills have had two legit impact players on their offense in Kincaid and Torrence. KC with the worst draft of the group, Uzomah was a massive bust 2022 Draft: Bills: Elam: Bust Cook - Great Bernard - Good Shakir - Good Araiza - Good (Bust for Bills) Benford - Good Tenuta - Bust Spector - Bust Ravens: Hamilton - Great Linderbaum - Good Ojabo - Bust Jones - Good Faalele - Meh Armour-Davis - Bust Kolar - Bust Stout - Good Likely - Good Williams - Bust Badie - Bust KC: McDuffie - Great Karlaftis - Good Moore - Bust Cook - Good Chenal - Good Williams - Good Kinnard - Bust Watson - Meh Pacheco - Meh Johnson - Bust Summary: Really strong draft year. Baltimore really lucked into Hamilton this season, the fact that he fell is crazy. Elam bust stick out, but the Bills had a really strong rest of the draft. Overall, I'd say all three teams had a great draft - hard to differentiate impact. Overall summary - None of the teams have been head or shoulders above the others over the past three drafts (22-24). Each team have had their share of hits (McDuffie, Hamilton, Cook), and their share of busts (Uzomah, Elam). If you try to compare the Bills draft to any other teams, they tend to have picked much earlier than them from 2020-2025, which drastically impacts the results. At the end of the day, if you are upset with the Bills draft results from the past few years, you could be a fan of KC or Baltimore and saying the exact same thing. I'll need to cover FA in another post

Would have been a bad hire. daboll is not a good HC.

How did I think Rice was a 5th? My apologies I totally thought he was a 5th. They also never traded a first for an established player like Diggs, but recently they did use an additional 2nd compared to Beane.