Billy Claude

In some cases you are looking at expectations for the year -- "Jordan Matthews was a perennial 900 yard receiver but imploded with the Bills" and in another case you are looking at accomplishments during the season -- " Zay Jones who would have a promising sophomore season". Picking and choosing which one you want to use to make the argument pretty much destroys its credibility. The WR room this season looks pretty weak going in but I don't think it was as bad as the 2017 one looked. It has always been my belief that that Bills intended to tank that season and were surprised to be in the playoff hunt. Anquan Boldin obviously though so too.

Absolutely agree that the defense was bad during the last six games of Dorsey's tenure. However, independent of the defense, the offense was also pretty bad during those six games. Outside of the Chargers and Patriots games which I certainly don't want to discount, I don't see how anyone watching the Brady OC games would say that the Bills' offense did not at minimum look smoother and less discombulated than Dorsey's last six games. The defense definitely played much better during the last 9 games (with the exception of the KC playoff game). A lot of this was due to McDermott adjusting and the pickup of Douglas after the first round of injuries. However, the defense also gave up fewer points because the offense held the ball so long so there were fewer drives per game. The defense also most likely started with better field position on average since there were fewer three and outs (these last two "facts" are guesses, I didn't check that). These appear to be unpopular words on the board but it really was textbook complementary football. The main question is why did the offense look smoother under Brady? If it was primarily due to Josh Allen running more then is it sustainable? You bring up some data, i.e., Allen's lower completion percentage under Brady that suggests that this is the case so that is definitely something to be concerned about.

I am skeptical of Brady but you are undercutting arguments with how one-sided they are. You can always find a reason to disregard a data point after the fact. Lets consider the Brady games one by one and make the argument the other way. Jets: You say the Jets defense was decimated by injuries but what injuries? 10 out of their 11 regular starters started the Bills game and played their normal amount of snaps. The only starter that was inactive was their slot cornerback Michael Carter and he was a part time starter; Saleh was moving people in and out of that position trying to find the most effective player. He eventually landed on Carter who is a decent player but hardly the linchpin of that defense, The Jets had a lot of injuries but it was the mirror image of the Bills -- most of the injuries were on offense, and outside of Aaron Rodgers, mostly on the offensive line. The Jets had some bad defensive performances after the Bills game but I feel it was caused by the Bills game. The Jets knew they had to win the Bills game to have a realistic chance of making the playoffs. IMHO the run of bad defensive performances by the Jets was caused by the defense essentially giving up for a while after the Bills game rather than a lot of defensive injuries. Eagles: The Eagles were a bad defense but the Bills offense still played well. In the past, the Bills offense have had plenty of bad games against bad offenses. Brady and the Bills offense should be given credit for a good offensive game (which would the Bills would have been won if they had a better kicker). Chiefs: If you disregard good offensive games because they are playing against bad defenses, you also have to give credit for okay games against very good defenses (2nd ranked by yardage). Cowboys: Brady called a great game against the Cowboys. Full stop. Nobody said anything about the Cowboys being emotionally spend from the Eagles game before the Bills game. If the Bills had played badly, you could have just as well make the argument that the Bills were emotionally spent from the previous week's game against the Chiefs. Both arguments feel like desperate reaches trying to justify a result after the fact. Chargers and Patriots: The Chargers and Patriots game were just awful offensive performances and the one of the primary reason to question how successful Brady will be. Dolphins: The offense was moving up and down the field at will against the Dolphins for over 487 total yards. Unfortunately Josh Allen was handing out turnovers like it was Halloween candy (all of them in Miami territory including one on the Miami 5 yard line). Obviously the Dolphins defense was decimated by injuries but you can't just ignore the 487 yards and I don't think you can blame two interceptions and a fumble by Allen all on Brady. Steelers: The Bills performed masterfully in the first half. This included 80 yard drives of 8 and 10 plays. The only reason the Steelers got back in the game was a blocked 48 yard field goal leading to a short field TD before the end of the half. You can blame that on Bass or you can blame that on McDermott but it certainly wasn't Brady's fault. In the second half the Bills defensive injuries started piling up and the Bills only had the ball four times but only punted once (td, fg, missed fg, and punt). Again, the Steelers had a lot of injuries but this game has to count as a plus for Brady. Chiefs: Again 2nd rank defense in the league. The Bills offense wasn't great but was ok, given the injuries on defense this was the only game plan that would give the Bills a decent chance of winning. Like I said I have a lot of sympathy for your skepticism of Brady. (1) The Bills offense increased by a one play per drive and more than 5 minutes in time of possession under Brady. This is impressive but how much of this is due to running Allen a lot more. Is this sustainable? Can Brady do this with Allen running less? Yes, TOP is both an offensive and defensive statistic but surely adding one play per drive and running more contributes substantially to that. (2) Cook had 3 very good games under Brady -- he had over 80 yards receiving against both the Jets and Eagles. However, he was ineffective once the league's DCs figured out you had to account for him. Can Brady figure out how to make Cook effective? (3) Brady seems to want to go to the short passing game and the new WR room will almost force it. This is not playing into Allen's strength nor is it something Allen is particularly good at nor likes to do. You would think going to a short passing game should increase Allen's completion percentage. The fact that the completion percentage went down is what I find most troubling.

That the Bills expected to have Diggs on the team this season is the only way that the WR strategy made any sense.

As someone who never understood why people thought Bass was elite, the fact that he his practice kicks were falling short was the strongest evidence that it was an unreported injury and not the yips.

Everybody loves Ray Davis right now, but I definitely wouldn't have minded if they use that draft choice and some other assets to go up and get Franklin.

It would be interesting to figure out what exactly happened but most likely it will never come out. Yes, a second WR drafted would have been nice but you don't have much of a plan if you are counting on a 4th or 5th round rookie wide receiver to contribute in a substantial manner. Look at what Shakir did his rookie year, and I don't expect anything from Shorter who were the Bills' last two 4th and 5th round receivers.

I think the original plan was probably Diggs + Shakir + Samuel + rookie. Assuming Diggs returns to form and add in Kincaid and Cook and you gave a pretty good set of passing options. That of course got blown up when they decided the Diggs situation was untenable. It would be interesting to know when that decision to get rid of Diggs was made. So if you want to blame blame someone it has to go to Beane for giving Diggs the extension but they needed to do it to sign Von Miller.

The stats don't tell the whole story, it wasn't just the playoffs. After the Giants and Patriots game, McDermott lost confidence in him and Bass did not attempt a 50+ yarder in the last 14 games (12 reg + 2 playoffs) after attempting 6 in his first 5 games. In fact, Bass finished the regular season on a 6 for 6 streak which would seem to be pretty decent but all 6 were under 40 yards. Definitely agree that its hard to pin this on the holder unless Martin suddenly got terrible at holding in the middle of his 10th season in the league. There was a lot of speculation at the time that Bass was dealing with an injury. Either a undisclosed injury or the yips seem much more likely to me than holding issues. Overall he was 7 for 9 in the 2020 playoffs so he was 10 for 12 (83.3%) from 2020 to 2022 which is not good but not terrible. Adding in last years playoffs he was 12 for 17 (70.5%) which is terrible. He has also been surprisingly bad at extra points in the playoffs going 26 for 29 (89.7%) and was only 9 for 11 with hold-god Matt Haack in the 2021 playoffs.

It is a shock these days when people act like reasonable adults instead of spiteful teenagers. I am glad that we appear to have reasonable people here. I actually wasn't bothered by the article very much. How many head coaches are not micromanagers and control freaks? The last one the Bills had that wasn't was Rex Ryan and that was not a good experience. The 911 analogy may not be the most appropriate but it was just a one time mistake and Daboll does not appear to be the easiest guy to get along with. The only story in the Dunne article that bothered me was that McDermott was upset about the players buying the WR coach a car.

The problem with new kickers is always you never know if they are any good until you throw them into actual games and by that time it is too late. Look at how many kickers the Jets have gone through the last 4 years or so until they seem to have finally found someone reasonable. Of course, if Bass continues to have issues during practice it would be malpractice on Beane's part to not bring someone else in to compete.

Little bit of topic but if you felt the Bills were unlucky last year you were right. Opposition kickers hit 93.5% of kicks against the Bills in 2023. OTOH, opposition kickers only hit 64% against the Bills in 2019. That was the year the other team's kickers kept getting cut right after the Bills game. Just shows you how big a role luck plays in the NFL. Just thought it was an interesting tidbit.

It was an easy one to win since the players who would benefit from lower rookie salaries got a vote while the ones who would be hurt in the future did not since they were not in the league yet. It was great for the league and the fans, up to that point NFL news during the summer was mostly about which draftees were holding out and how much they were asking for. In the early 2000's, many people regarded a top three or four draft choice as a detriment due to the amount of cap it was going to take up and the high bust probability.

No one really noticed because even average is pretty good these days., not like in 1990 when Norwood was 69% in the regular season (sorry, too soon?). Also, until last season, the Bills were usually winning by so much, missing a field goal here and there really didn't matter.

Bass was never close to 3rd: 2020 82.4% (20th) 2021 87.5% (15th) 2022 87.1% (11th) 2023 82.8% (23rd) GunnerBill did a deeper dive and found that Bass was 33 out of 35 from the 2nd half of his rookie year thru the first half of his 2nd year. That is the reason people have the impression that he is elite. Outside of that span he has been slightly above average (except for the 2nd half of last year where he was just bad).

To be fair he did have a broken thumb the last 12 games of that season.

He wasn't overdrafted in the sense that people would not have been surprised if the Browns picked him at 4. However, the general consensus both among the local and national media at the time was the Bills substantially overpaid for him, especially given the recognized strength of the WR draft class that year. This was one of those lose-lose trades. The Browns used the Bills draft choices to pick epic bust Justin Gilbert (1st 2014), ordinary bust Cameron Evans (1st 2015), and a JAG 5th rounder, Ibrahim Malcolm-Campbell.

He had three so called arm punts, all within the first five games of last season. None after and none before (at least within the last three years). I am guessing the coaches told him to stop it.

That was a fake statistic. The numbers were about the same. However, I agree that randomness plays a much bigger role than folks are willing to admit.

The only thing the two have in common is they both don't play defense.

Yeah, it's all s guess but I assume have models. Like I said, the NBA offers single team packages but at 80% to 90% of the full package. I assume if forced the NFL would do the same.

They would lose a lot of money. Like you said many people really just want one team but a lot of those people are paying the $350 even if they are not super happy about it. For your scenario to work, they would need to pick up 6 new subscribers for every subscriber that downgrades from the full package to the single team package. That isn't going to happen.

I didn't know that there was a lawsuit. It wouldn't matter, because the NFL would offer a single team package at 90% of the full package, however ,if the NBA and NHL are required to offer single team packages why isn't the NFL also required?

With NBA League Pass you are allowed to choose games just for one team but the discount is only about 10%. I would think very few people choose this.

Returning to the original question: Karlos Williams -- looked like a beast the whole 2015 season behind Shady McCoy but especially in two wins against the Dolphins, 21 carries for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns total in the two games.